PM Modi’s silence on LAC stand-off is benefiting China. India must change its script

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

In the current crisis, the Modi government and the military have lost credibility and the battle of perception, and have literally endorsed China’s stand.

LT GEN H S PANAG (RETD)11 June, 2020

A file photo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressing the nation on the issue of coronavirus | Screengrab

The situation along the Line of Actual Control took a dramatic turn after the rather disappointing and inconclusive Lieutenant General-level talks as indicated by the Ministry of External Affairs, held at Chushul on 6 June. At 4:52pm on 9 June, news wire ANI, which is almost always the first one to put out news citing government sources, tweeted: “India and China disengage at multiple points in Eastern Ladakh. Troops and infantry combat vehicles moved back by 2.5 km by People’s Liberation Army in Galwan area, Patrolling Point 15 and Hot Springs area. India has also moved some of its troops back: Top Govt sources to ANI.”

In sharp contrast to the press release put out by the MEA Monday, ANI attributes the disengagement to the Lieutenant General-level talks. On 7 June, the MEA sources had said, “This will be a long haul and small steps need to be taken to resolve the situation.”

Also read: India’s Fingers have come under Chinese boots. Denial won’t help us

Briefing by “top Indian Army sources”
Apparently, “top Army sources” briefed journalists or gave a handout Tuesday based on the outcomes of the Corps Commander’s level meeting. Grapevine says that the “top source” is one of the military commanders at the very top in Delhi. Since, it appears to be the first government/military brief, albeit unofficial and deniable, on the situation, it is pertinent to highlight the details:

• After the Corps Commanders’-level meeting on Saturday, both sides have “retreated a bit” – a rather unusual way of describing a military disengagement.
• Five areas of conflict have been identified – Patrolling Points 14,15 (Galwan River) and 17 (Hot Springs), north bank of Pangong Tso and Chushul. Chushul had so far not been mentioned in public domain.
• Within the next 10 days, a number of meetings of lower commanders are planned at four points. All hot lines are active.
• Corps Commander-level meetings might become an annual/ biannual feature.
• There has been no intelligence failure as demonstrated by the quick and strong response of the Army.
• Army Headquarters is fully satisfied with the performance of the Army and Corps Commander.
• PLA was matched in terms of men and machines and Indian Army is prepared for “long and permanent deployment”, if China does not retreat.
• The core issue is the undecided LAC. Until that is resolved these episodic issues will continue.
• The sources emphasised that the major issue currently is not just the frontline retreating but the build up that has taken place in the rear. China has deployed fighter bombers, rocket forces, air defence radars, jammers etc. at the LAC and a few km from the LAC. India will continue to carry out major build-up until China withdraws its own.

On Wednesday, the Chinese foreign minister spokesperson Hu Chunying said, “Recently, the diplomatic and military channels of China and India held effective communication on the situation along the border and reached positive consensus.”

In a sharp contrast, other reports give an exactly opposite view and indicate that the Chinese approach was belligerent and uncompromising.

The initial disengagement is certainly a success for the Narendra Modi government’s military and diplomatic approach and may pave the way to restoration of status quo ante April 2020. However, it also raises disturbing questions about the handling of the national security crisis by the government and the military. Has India been reduced to handling its national security and border incidents through stories peddled by “unknown official sources” leading to unnecessary speculation? Given the Modi government’s deafening silence of the past 6-8 weeks, has this disengagement come at a price? Given that China had seized the initiative, and had the upper-hand, what concessions have been given in terms of territory, deployment of troops and development of border infrastructure?

In my view, the confrontation on the LAC is far from resolved.

Also read: China believes India wants Aksai Chin back. PLA has likely secured 40-60 sq km in Ladakh

Govt’s handling of national security crisis
Despite the initial ‘denial’ and attempts at political obfuscation, the issue of China’s intrusions and related military actions along the LAC is now in public domain. The government always seems to get carried away by the fear of domestic political fallout, not realising the pitfalls of such an approach. Since despite a host of border management agreements and continuous diplomatic engagement, China has refused to demarcate the LAC, the lame excuse of “differing perceptions” failed to withstand scrutiny. In three areas–Galwan River, Hot Springs and Pangong Tso–China has deployed regular troops across the LAC and physically prevented us from patrolling up to the LAC.

No formal statement has been made on the military situation on the LAC. We seem to have fallen into a familiar pattern: the Chinese actions catch us by surprise, both at the strategic and the tactical level; we react with a much higher force level; the exact place and the extent of the intrusion is never formally acknowledged; the outcomes of the military and diplomatic engagements and concessions meted out are not put out in public domain; and without learning any lesson, we repeat the entire process when the next crisis occurs. In the last seven years the same pattern was repeated at Depsang 2013, Chumar 2014, Doklam 2017 and also now in eastern Ladakh.

Doklam is a classic case. We proclaimed it as a victory. But, today the PLA is all over the Doklam Plateau with the exception of the Jampheri Ridge. So much for the Wuhan spirt.

There is a need to delink national security from domestic politics.

Also read: India, China implementing positive consensus aimed at easing tensions, says Beijing

China’s political and military aims
In the recurring crisis on the LAC in Ladakh, it is pertinent to analyse China’s political and military aims.

China’s political aim is to exploit the unsettled border–undemarcated LAC–by triggering border incidents to exert its hegemony over India and prevent it from becoming a political, military and economic competitor in the international arena, particularly with respect to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), South China Sea and Indo Pacific. And in doing so, prevent India from developing its border infrastructure that threatens Aksai Chin and other vulnerable areas.

China’s military aim is to trigger border incidents and preemptively seize tactically important areas to cut off India’s strategic communications which threaten Aksai Chin and its other vulnerable areas. Depending on India’s reaction, China is likely to undertake short-duration limited operations to capture Sub Sector North, area upto north bank of Pangong Tso, Demochok and Chumar. These areas extend the LAC from Karakoram, along Shyok River, north bank of Pangong Tso, along Kailash Range to Demchok and Chumar. These gains would also threaten the Nubra Valley and Siachen glacier and ensure China’s collusion with Pakistan to prevent any threat to the CPEC at Gilgit.

Also read: The new reality of China-centric bipolar world order, and reasons behind Ladakh standoff

Take the nation into confidence
In my view, the crisis in Eastern Ladakh is far from over. The campaigning season in Ladakh lasts until end November and the stand-off is likely to continue. Indeed, initial steps seem to have been taken by “both sides retreating a bit”, which, at best will prevent “fist and club fights”. I would advise the government to be prepared for a “long haul” and be clear about its political and military aims–sanctification of the LAC and restoration of status quo ante April 2020. The last two bullets of the “top Indian Army sources” briefing only endorse this view.

In the current crisis, the Modi government and the military have lost credibility and the battle of perception, and have literally endorsed China’s stand. It has also sent wrong signals to the international community. In the era of open-source intelligence and “soldier journalists” armed with mobile phones, denial and obfuscation do not help.

Modi government should take Parliament and the nation into confidence within the limits of security. It may be prudent for the Prime Minister to address the nation and military spokespersons to give formal briefings, at least once or twice a week.

Lt Gen H S Panag PVSM, AVSM (R) served in the Indian Army for 40 years. He was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post-retirement, he was Member of Armed Forces Tribunal. Views are personal.



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https://theprint.in/opinion/pm-modi...-script/439423/?amp&__twitter_impression=true

What do you want him to say? "Sorry guys, we are too weak and powerless to take our conquered land back from China".

A country that is too weak, powerless and scared to take on the Pakistani military is really going to mess with a global superpower like China?................

 

[SrNair]

Already done and dusted

https://twitter.com/x/status/1271778468070592514

This was the plan .
Not some provocative statements against Chinese .
We must complete the construction .thats all

 

[hussain0216]

Still I didny get the reply of the real issue .
Before 2014 are we great in our all borders?

Even if we agrees your conclusion those 45 days of blockade was because Rajiv insecurity and psychological issue .
Neighbours are neighbours .
They can be good friends or worst enemies.
Nepalese was always against India due to unknown reasons .
Then China was also poor ,so they didnt have much bargain chip.
Now they have money so they have bargain chip.
The road that inaugrated by our DM that passes through that area is actually directly links India with China reducing the Nepal importance.
Now Chinese showed the green signal .

Our neighbours always shows untrust worthy attitude long time before this govt .
10 years of pacifist milky Manmohan Singh era didnt change anything .
Several decades ago once the SL allowed Pakistani navy ships refuel in there angered Indira and then is history .

10 years we had total democracy with full freedom and honey .Only for the corruption NPA and various service.
Defence was great that our beloved snail pace Anthony didnt signed MMRCA and just escaped .

People saw all of these ,they invite this necessary evil.
So far ,he wont spare whoever tries to oversmart him.That is one unique quality of PM Modi (Good or Bad)
Once the issue with Chinese just finished .
They will deal with Nepal in the language they can understand.
India cannot trust their neighbours .
Nor we have to show any magnanimity towards them.
It must be strictly standard cooperation.

 

[SrNair]

Relative to today, yes. We did not annoy several neighbours simultaneously.



Which blockade are you talking about? This happened under Modi's government.



What a discovery!



Nepal was a solid ally. I cannot even imagine what you are referring to, other than King Mahindra's efforts to retain his independence after he got rid of the Ranas with India's help, and Birendra's continuing those efforts. When the monarchy was overthrown, all that vanished, so we had a clean slate and we managed to convert that into hostility.



If India wants to link up with China, there are thousands of kilometres of border; why should that particular road be a threat to Nepali importance? That doesn't make any sense.



Bizarre. Nobody hated us then; they do now.



Agreed. Now the money is flowing freely, just one Rafale deal made up for all the years of poor income.



The trouble is that India has nothing with which to threaten Nepal. Nor does India have the capacity to 'finish' the issue with China. So what are we talking about? Or are we talking about talking? That is the typical bhakt style; to make up for all failures by talking about successes that they think they have achieved, that nobody else sees as success, or by talking about successes that they think they may achieve in future.

Basically, he is incompetent, and will get the whole country into trouble through this incompetence.

One concern the Indira had before when SAARC formed was the possibility of ganging up of our neighbours against India.
Luckily nothing just happened.


Please read the link that I just posted in previous reply .


There was no such solid ally.
Deep inside they already had discontent .
Years of Chinese reeducation and investment for in Nepal created a new elite starting Prachanda .
Communist elites .
Kingdom is already over .Whatever happens at that time doesnt show the reality now .
Now we have a communist govt propped up by Chinese sponsorship is there .
Thats all we knows .

What was the competent leaders is doing all these years ?

Those who have the access to first class intelligence decides the border issue .AFAIK that is one thing we all can agree.
There is a genuine reason for every action of our team.

That is something that we already debated to death ?
We had two choices .Move forward with terrific job done by AK Anthony and just witness the degradation of the IAF quadron strength .
Or do something that IAF also agrees to sustain the squadron.
Besides even the first one is still not here.


This is the samething that every people says to me when I put forward some valid points .
Modi govt is not an absolute perfect one.
Infact some of his decision was not effective at all.
But foreign relations he did very well in various issues.

Eventually it will come back .
For us how they manage the Maldives is best example and also Lanka .

Its a discovery boss .
No need to give unusual importance to anyone .

As far as I know everyone cares about their own interest .Noone cares about love or hate.
Including India also .
Tomorrow if you have deep pocket than Chinese everything will change .
This is the new world.

Of Course it is a good one .
They are incompetent , they will be incompetent because that is ruiling structure in India.
We have a CM the openly declare that Bangladeshis you dont need to go any where you can stay illegally in India under Indian citizens expense.
In this utopia , few good men can sense incompetency

 

[Joe Shearer]

One concern the Indira had before when SAARC formed was the possibility of ganging up of our neighbours against India.
Luckily nothing just happened.

Nothing lucky about it; just a paranoid woman.

Please read the link that I just posted in previous reply .

There was no such solid ally.
Deep inside they already had discontent .
Years of Chinese reeducation and investment for in Nepal created a new elite starting Prachanda .
Communist elites .
Kingdom is already over .Whatever happens at that time doesnt show the reality now .
Now we have a communist govt propped up by Chinese sponsorship is there .
Thats all we knows .

How did you get to know these pieces of secret information about their deep inside feelings? Doesn't it seem ridiculous even to you that these 'facts' should emerge from the shadows after damage has been done for some other reason?

What influence did China have in Nepal? Where did Prachanda get his political feelings? Do you know?

Further, what did China do while the communist insurrection was going on? Did it get involved? Did India get involved?

Unless you take the trouble of doing your homework, it is really not worth discussing this matter with you; you are going on a reconstruction that yields a narrative that never was.

What was the competent leaders is doing all these years ?

Nothing. They should have done something if there was an occasion; that occasion is wholly a made up one to explain away the incompetent handling of the present situation, by saying that it was already there, and therefore today's idiots cannot be blamed for it.

Those who have the access to first class intelligence decides the border issue .AFAIK that is one thing we all can agree.
There is a genuine reason for every action of our team.

It will help if you come out with the genuine reasons, rather than implying that their seeming incoherence has a deeply thought-out plan behind it. The fact is that there was, and is, no such plan. Just existence from moment to moment, and an exacerbation of the situation by arrogant behaviour.

That is something that we already debated to death ?
We had two choices .Move forward with terrific job done by AK Anthony and just witness the degradation of the IAF quadron strength .
Or do something that IAF also agrees to sustain the squadron.
Besides even the first one is still not here.

How many years since Chhappanincheswar took over? What has been done in these years for the IAF? Name one thing.

This is the samething that every people says to me when I put forward some valid points .
Modi govt is not an absolute perfect one.
Infact some of his decision was not effective at all.
But foreign relations he did very well in various issues.

Please - no more platitudes. Give concrete examples, or stop defending the indefensible.

Eventually it will come back .
For us how they manage the Maldives is best example and also Lanka .

The Maldives was protected and defended long before the incompetents took over. It was lost under this regime. It came back due to their own political reaction to the autocratic regime and had nothing to do with us.

Its a discovery boss .
No need to give unusual importance to anyone .

As far as I know everyone cares about their own interest .Noone cares about love or hate.
Including India also .
Tomorrow if you have deep pocket than Chinese everything will change .
This is the new world.

Of Course it is a good one .
They are incompetent , they will be incompetent because that is ruiling structure in India.
We have a CM the openly declare that Bangladeshis you dont need to go any where you can stay illegally in India under Indian citizens expense.
In this utopia , few good men can sense incompetency

That last bit was verbiage with nothing useful in it. Sorry, but please put up relevant arguments or facts or both. These general declarations are not worth the time you are wasting on typing them.

If you really want to discuss this issue, you need to do much more reading up on the situation.

 

[Joe Shearer]

 

[SrNair]

Nothing lucky about it; just a paranoid woman.





How did you get to know these pieces of secret information about their deep inside feelings? Doesn't it seem ridiculous even to you that these 'facts' should emerge from the shadows after damage has been done for some other reason?

What influence did China have in Nepal? Where did Prachanda get his political feelings? Do you know?

Further, what did China do while the communist insurrection was going on? Did it get involved? Did India get involved?

Unless you take the trouble of doing your homework, it is really not worth discussing this matter with you; you are going on a reconstruction that yields a narrative that never was.



Nothing. They should have done something if there was an occasion; that occasion is wholly a made up one to explain away the incompetent handling of the present situation, by saying that it was already there, and therefore today's idiots cannot be blamed for it.



It will help if you come out with the genuine reasons, rather than implying that their seeming incoherence has a deeply thought-out plan behind it. The fact is that there was, and is, no such plan. Just existence from moment to moment, and an exacerbation of the situation by arrogant behaviour.



How many years since Chhappanincheswar took over? What has been done in these years for the IAF? Name one thing.



Please - no more platitudes. Give concrete examples, or stop defending the indefensible.



The Maldives was protected and defended long before the incompetents took over. It was lost under this regime. It came back due to their own political reaction to the autocratic regime and had nothing to do with us.



That last bit was verbiage with nothing useful in it. Sorry, but please put up relevant arguments or facts or both. These general declarations are not worth the time you are wasting on typing them.

If you really want to discuss this issue, you need to do much more reading up on the situation.

At the end that paranoia was right .
All it takes a string of pearls and China.

Talk to them.
I had the opportunity to talk to them.
Now please just dont write off that because it is all imagination like this ,like that.
They hate Madeshis and so they hate Indians .
The blockades just surfaced what was alreaey deep down there .

Are you really saying that the communist idealogy was found out from earth like they found Sita .?
Or Mr Yechury just give blessings to them.?
It is been years of effort Sirji .
Unlike the democratic India where India govt has additional effort to maintain the 'democracy ' in India ,One party ,autocratic Chinese dont have such issues.They have focus .They have BRI ,OBOR and string of pearls.

Of Course I am not worthy .So be it .
But cant be an hypocrite .


There is no such incompetency issue here Sirji .
There is no point in dilly dallying and showing vulnerability to whatever nations we have in this world .
Nepal want those areas . And India cant hand over that also .


Do we have clear picture of what is really going on there?I dont have .So how you can just conclude that is because of their competency or incompetency .? We only knows what we can see in electronic or social media .Even that how much reliable .

One thing I know that the Rafale with fully packed weapons will come within two months .
Tejas is not only the effort of this govt .
But still this govt additional effort to expand that project .Now proposing twin engine version.


Ok agreed.It was already secured before this incompetent rule .
Then what was the reason for GMR issue, diplomatic whirl wind 7 years ago ?
Who was the ruler of Maldives at that time ?
How the Nasheed was able to return to there ?

Sorry .
It is obvious that the health of a chaotic democratic govt will reflect in their diplomacy also

View attachment 641477

If this was the case that was happened 3 months ago .
I could had fully agree to you .
But that is not the case actually .
Reasons.
1. When the covid starts in India we had zero production of PPE ,test kits and most important of them lack of awarness also.
2.Compares to the 4 other nations ( adding all the populations strength still way less than India) India is less developed , more choatic .Still the two by third case is from Maharashtra .
3.Everyone knows after the lockdown cases will increase .
4.Why the China is still not in the list .?
You mean they are absolute transparent with full of freedom and angels are rulers .

 

[Joe Shearer]

At the end that paranoia was right .
All it takes a string of pearls and China.

Whatever this means. Let us try to make sense of your remarks.

Talk to them.
I had the opportunity to talk to them.
Now please just dont write off that because it is all imagination like this ,like that.
They hate Madeshis and so they hate Indians .
The blockades just surfaced what was alreaey deep down there .

Talk to whom? About what?

Are you really saying that the communist idealogy was found out from earth like they found Sita .?
Or Mr Yechury just give blessings to them.?
It is been years of effort Sirji .
Unlike the democratic India where India govt has additional effort to maintain the 'democracy ' in India ,One party ,autocratic Chinese dont have such issues.They have focus .They have BRI ,OBOR and string of pearls.

I am saying bluntly that you don't know where Prachanda became a communist. I am saying that China had nothing to do with it. I am saying that you really need to do your research before putting together these disconnected thoughts.

Sorry, but this needs some blunt talk.

Of Course I am not worthy .So be it .
But cant be an hypocrite .

Ignorance is not sincerity.
Knowledge is not hypocrisy.

You really need to get your thinking sorted.

There is no such incompetency issue here Sirji .

And your simple unsupported statement is enough to establish that?

[quoteThere is no point in dilly dallying and showing vulnerability to whatever nations we have in this world .
Nepal want those areas . And India cant hand over that also .[/quote]

Why not? What is the strategic point of those areas? I am not suggesting handing them over, I am suggesting that your statements do not make any sense.

Do we have clear picture of what is really going on there?I dont have .So how you can just conclude that is because of their competency or incompetency .? We only knows what we can see in electronic or social media .Even that how much reliable .

So you have no opinion about anything that you have not experienced personally?

Well, there goes the Special Theory of Relativity.

One thing I know that the Rafale with fully packed weapons will come within two months .
Tejas is not only the effort of this govt .
But still this govt additional effort to expand that project .Now proposing twin engine version.

That is what I have already pointed out to you. It's all words; nothing happens, only posturing for the camera.

Ok agreed.It was already secured before this incompetent rule .
Then what was the reason for GMR issue, diplomatic whirl wind 7 years ago ?
Who was the ruler of Maldives at that time ?
How the Nasheed was able to return to there ?

Nothing due to our efforts. Entirely due to the Maldives people themselves.

Sorry .
It is obvious that the health of a chaotic democratic govt will reflect in their diplomacy also

Again, just words. All governments in India have been democratic. Not all governments in India have made such a mess. Some others have made messes, but not on this scale.

 

[Pan-Islamic-Pakistan]

And there goes Akhund Bharata. Even Hindu Nepal says no. Indians should concentrate on preventing present India from collapsing, rather than trying to conquer Afghanistan.

 

[Joe Shearer]

If this was the case that was happened 3 months ago .
I could had fully agree to you .
But that is not the case actually .

Reasons.
1. When the covid starts in India we had zero production of PPE ,test kits and most important of them lack of awarness also.

And that was the responsibility of my building watchman?

2.Compares to the 4 other nations ( adding all the populations strength still way less than India) India is less developed , more choatic .Still the two by third case is from Maharashtra .

So? Does that disprove the argument?

3.Everyone knows after the lockdown cases will increase .

Why is it so high for these alone?

4.Why the China is still not in the list .?
You mean they are absolute transparent with full of freedom and angels are rulers .

You have figures that are different from these?

Or, as usual, you wish you had figures different from these, but since you don't, you feel entitled to make remarks about what it would have been if your wishes had been true.

#######################################################################

And there goes Akhund Bharata. Even Hindu Nepal says no. Indians should concentrate on preventing present India from collapsing, rather than trying to conquer Afghanistan.

The Akhund was the Emir of Swat.

Even by your not very high standards, tonight seems to be a difficult night.

 

[rott]

Seems like a quiet night. @Joe Shearer

 

[Joe Shearer]

Seems like a quiet night. @Joe Shearer

The usual bunch of stupid Sanghis, intent on preserving Modi's honour; Pakistani fanboys resorting to abuse because they can't think of anything else to say; phony military analysts who haven't got out of short pants but know that conscription armies will help them win the war against India THIS time; Chinese wags fingering me to get a funny word or two - the usual. Nothing useful, unless you would care to look at one of the two or three worthwhile threads, the one on India Pakistan conflicts.

 

[rott]

The usual bunch of stupid Sanghis, intent on preserving Modi's honour; Pakistani fanboys resorting to abuse because they can't think of anything else to say; phony military analysts who haven't got out of short pants but know that conscription armies will help them win the war against India THIS time; Chinese wags fingering me to get a funny word or two - the usual. Nothing useful, unless you would care to look at one of the two or three worthwhile threads, the one on India Pakistan conflicts.

I am tired, Joe. I am gonna retire soon. Just checking what's up with you.
I am not fingering you or do you mean some other Chinese?

 

[Joe Shearer]

I am tired, Joe. I am gonna retire soon. Just checking what's up with you.
I am not fingering you or do you mean some other Chinese?

I was joking; it was about you.

I've written one more post on India Pakistan conflicts. I feel so sad that my friend Chauism is no longer on the forum; we discussed the 1962 conflict with exactly this frankness, honesty and mutual regard. Even that thread has apparently been lost in the great PDF crash.

Oh, I bought Hoisin sauce and made my Chow Mein again. It was sensational.

 

[Han Patriot]

Isnt the so called bridge already completed a while back ?

Even international media is now confirming Chinese "annexation" of Indian territory. 60 sq kms is a lot! That's without firing a single bullet.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...are-km-india-ladakh-simmering-tensions-erupt/

I cannot understand why the Indians are so happy building a road inside their own territory, China don't even claim that place. The bridge is just an excuse mate, China just wanna put India in its place. Lololol.

Positioning up the heights of Galwan will enable China to destroy that artery. You can build whatever you want. It means nothing. Lololol.