I have been looking into the timing of all of this. Indian Elections coming closer, a fake victory to celebrate achievements of the current government, their man in Pakistan out of power and the Pakistan Army having a champion in office.
Was this response by the Prime Minister neccecary? Likely so, it needed to be conveyed through the highest impact office that we made an oveture but a "war mongering' Bharat turned it down. Especially since till now despite India's rhetoric all Imran Khan has been talking about is peace. However, did this act by the Indian MEA have anything to do with Nawaz Sharif? I am starting to think that the true reason this has happened is because we have friends of Nawaz Sharif in India pushing for pressure on the current government. More indiciations came up since Nawaz Sharif is now out of Jail so he may be able to make rallies or create instigation for the current government.
Sadly, support for him still exists in Punjab which will greatly stifle attempts to create national cohesion in this critical junction.
So what now? What are the true motives for the Indian government and their directions to their military?
Considering that elections are about to come up, does Modi want a limited war victory so he can claim kudos for solving the Pakistan problem?
Currently the PM just came off a trip where he has garnered a lot of goodwill from key states in the region with whom relations were fluctuating due to a broken civil-military coordination. So the timing of India's statements is not going to fly with any other audience than Trump, who is also facing turmoil at home. He might tweet something in favor of India whenever Fox& Friends brings it up but it seems Europe will not be keen to take part nor will Russia. In fact all of them will state that peace is the only way and talks are the best foot forward.
So where does India get support for its "pain", the vassal government of Bangladesh and the enemy government of Kabul will be first to step forward as they have their beef to grind but their voices on the world stage are very limited and as far as Kabul is concerned they dont want more bloodbath and be seen as ineffective when the Taliban are currently busy ripping them apart while the Americans watch haplessly.
One tactic is to try and work with Iran who may be feeling smarted after the PM's visit to Saudia and will help in reigniting unrest in Balochistan and FATA. The retaliation to this can be getting actively involved in cleaning up Yemen of Iranian influence and the tactics used in FATA and Balochistan can be forwarded to the Arab states to apply and use.
That will put the US in a bind as the Arabs would gladly pressure their current administration to help especially if getting back at Iran is involved. So it is likely the Iranians may try to sit this one out.
So what realisitic options does this leave India anyway? Despite their bellicose media trying to drum up the dogs of war and their Army chief making emotional threats, there are few options at play for them. Either they go back to their ceasefire violations and return to the heavy sessions where they used mortars and artillery which only leads to tit for tat escalations that in the current situation can only be aimed at draining investment and economy for Pakistan but wont last long as escalation leaves little choice other than full conflict; which despite their bluster they can ill afford.
They can try to drum up diplomatic support along with this but very few and rather insignificant players other than the US will respond.
Sure, it will help Nawaz Sharif on the ground to drum up support how he kept the peace and is the best hope for a prosperous Pakistan, but it all depends upon the appetite of the Pakistani people to stand behind their government.
So really, the true factor that decides all this is the Pakistani people. Are they willing to bear an onslaught to stand with their PM and stand up to both external and internal forces trying to keep them from stability?
That is the question to really ask, and is the question that Bipin Rawat tried to ask with his threats of pain.
