please fo to this link and see Pak.economy at the end of FY2007

[Neo]

Back to topic now. Musharraf did a good job by appointing Shauqat Aziz for the job to get Pakistan back on track, he's the actual brainchild behind our "Wirtschafts Wunder".

Musharraf's job was to create an investment friendly environment and to implement new rules and regulations to allow Aziz to set a workframe for reshaping and restructuring of the once defaulting economy. Musharraf delivered better than one could expect, often helped by external factors such as USaid and EU's waiver in quota for our role in WoT.

 

[Vinod2070]

Vinod,
The Economist World Review is merely a prediction, I've been buying the copy since 1995 and its been wrong so many times.

Just for example Indian GDP touched $1 trillion mark in August this year (based on montary fluctuations rather than actual growth), the economy will have to grow by atleast 35% to get anywhere close to $1.3 trillion!!

I agree. I just did not get a good estimate of the figures for 2007 and these estimates may not be too far off the mark.

I guess in nominal terms, getting a ~25% increase in GDP should not be too difficult considering moderate inflation, some exchange rate fluctuation and the anticipated growth rate. You may be right about it being too optimistic but it may well be right. I guess their calculation would have been based on some assumptions. You are absolutely right about monetary fluctuations playing a big part but it does seem kind of irreversible in the short term.

Indeed, both countries will cross $1000 GDP pc mark for the first time in FY2007/08 with India being aprrox $60-70 ahead of Pakistan.

Yes. We are floating in the same boat now. The difference is hardly anything in per capita terms. So I find it wrong for any side to belittle the other on either the poverty or the social ills count. We both have issues to deal with.

You have all the right to be optimistic, things are looking good for India. If the next government succeeds to extend ongoing reforms and materialises the plans to improve infrastructure you might be able to reach 10% growth from 2012.

Amen to that. Mainly because I hope, we will see a corresponding decrease in poverty and human misery in our region. The rest of it would just flow from it.

 

[Proud to be Pakistani]

Back to topic now. Musharraf did a good job by appointing Shauqat Aziz for the job to get Pakistan back on track, he's the actual brainchild behind our "Wirtschafts Wunder".

Musharraf's job was to create an investment friendly environment and to implement new rules and regulations to allow Aziz to set a workframe for reshaping and restructuring of the once defaulting economy. Musharraf delivered better than one could expect, often helped by external factors such as USaid and EU's waiver in quota for our role in WoT.

Agreed but in Private sector a huge investment has also supported the economic growth and their is still so much potential in this sector that needs good policies and actions from the Government to attract foreign investment.

 

[Neo]

I agree. I just did not get a good estimate of the figures for 2007 and these estimates may not be too far off the mark.

I guess in nominal terms, getting a ~25% increase in GDP should not be too difficult considering moderate inflation, some exchange rate fluctuation and the anticipated growth rate. You may be right about it being too optimistic but it may well be right. I guess their calculation would have been based on some assumptions. You are absolutely right about monetary fluctuations playing a big part but it does seem kind of irreversible in the short term.

Indian GDP stood at approx $960 billion by the end of last FY and crossed 9% growth in Q1 resulting in landmark achievement of touching $1 trillion in August due a very week dollar. Experts believe India will close FY07/08 with atleast 8.5% growth. Simple calculation brings me to figuers between $80-85 billion which will be added to GDP.
Imho we're on the safe side to estimate Indian GDP to be around $1.1 trillion tops by the end of current FY.

 

[Neo]

Agreed but in Private sector a huge investment has also supported the economic growth and their is still so much potential in this sector that needs good policies and actions from the Government to attract foreign investment.

True, privatisation will be the engine for next decade with assets worth almost another $100-140 billion.
Some of this money will be used for debt serving, thats been the trend for last five years and I hope next governent endorses current policies.

Otoh I'd like to see structural changes in FDI. Most of it is going to the boomong real state business which does not add much value to the GDP.
I'd rather see investemt in LSM and infrastructure, outsourcing and IT and other high yield public sectors which will add to GDP and increase volume of our tarde.

 

[Vinod2070]

Indian GDP stood at approx $960 billion by the end of last FY and crossed 9% growth in Q1 resulting in landmark achievement of touching $1 trillion in August due a very week dollar. Experts believe India will close FY07/08 with atleast 8.5% growth. Simple calculation brings me to figuers between $80-85 billion which will be added to GDP.
Imho we're on the safe side to estimate Indian GDP to be around $1.1 trillion tops by the end of current FY.

You are discounting the effect of inflation and Exchange rate fluctuation.

A simple calculation:

Real growth - 8.5 %
Inflation - 6%
Exchange rate increase - 10%

Nominal growth = 1.085 X 1.06 X 1.1 = 1.26 => ~26 %

I am giving these figures as rough indicators. the point being that nominal growth could be much larger than the real growth. The figure of $ 1.33 trillion is the nominal figure which is not totally unachievable.

 

[Neo]

I agree, but ruppee is under pressure and getting stronger which will hurt your exports and make imports much more expensive triving the inflation in Q3/Q4.

Nominal growth of around 25% is bit too optimistic....time will tell.
Btw, my calculations are based on real growth.

 

[Contrarian]

Otoh I'd like to see structural changes in FDI. Most of it is going to the boomong real state business which does not add much value to the GDP.
I'd rather see investemt in LSM and infrastructure, outsourcing and IT and other high yield public sectors which will add to GDP and increase volume of our tarde.

Yes, i wanted to ask you that as well. Most of the news regarding FDI in Pakistan has been about real estate. Is it that the government is not promoting LSM or only promoting growth in real estate?

 

[Black Stone]

Catching up from a very low base indeed. It is good that China is taking its rightful place in the world, but the lead of the USA is overwhelming. In per capita terms they are nowhere even close and not going to be for a long-long time.

We are still leading on all fields, that's correct. However, the US sees China as a threat to her global dominance. We would never allow anyone to come close to us in terms of global influence.

This is sad, but true.

That's why the US would try to slow China's growth before it gets even stronger.

Same for the really high-end technologies. China is doing well for themselves in many sectors but is nowhere close to the USA.

And USA is also benefitting from the rise of China. It is absurd to think that USA will be sitting on its thumbs if there is a strategic challenger.

On technology, the US would not compromise or allow China to come near our level. We would try to slow them and increase our own technology capabilities. Again, this is hawkish, but it's the truth.

It is true that we are benefitting from China's growth, in a matter of fact it's not just us, but the world too.

China's economy cannot be ignored by the world. Since economy is a mutual thing, we benefit together.

The $ 1 trillion figure is the amount of American securities held by the Chinese and not the annual trade surplus figures!

If your talking about trade surplus, then it's over $200 Billion, more than the $100 Billion you mentioned. Both ways, we are in a mess, actions needs to be taken to ease this deficit.