PLA plans to increase conventional submarine numbers to 60 in next 10 years

[Indo-guy]

PLA will up number of Type 041 subs to 60 in 10yrs｜Politics｜News｜WantChinaTimes.com

Experts have predicted that China is likely to increase the number of its type 041 conventional submarines to 60 or 70 over the next decade. The Japanese navy also plans to increase the number of its Soryu-class diesel-electric powered submarines from 16 to 22 in response to a perceived threat from China, reports our Chinese-language sister newspaper Want Daily.
Soryu-class diesel-electric powered submarines are the latest model of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force. The vessel has a displacement of 2,000 tonnes and is equipped with an air-independent propulsion system. Japan will purchase another five of the submarine and will get delivery of one per year, increasing the total number of its Soryu-class submarines to ten.
China is preparing to test its latest type-041 diesel-electric submarine in the water recently. The vessel is similar to Germany's new submarine and equipped with an extra sonar system. Its displacement is likely to reach 3,500 tonnes.
US Pacific Command commander Samuel Locklear also said in March that China plans to increase the number of its type 041 conventional submarines to 60 or 70. The country has been building a nuclear-powered submarine that can carry JL-2 ballistic missiles. So far, the main carrier of the missiles has been the type-094 nuclear submarine, which China has four of.
British military magazine Jane's Defense said the Chinese navy has at least four nuclear-powered submarines that can launch ballistic missiles and 53 slightly outdated diesel-electric submarines. US Lieutenant General Michael Flynn said in February that China's ballistic missile nuclear submarines have carried out missions regularly and been spotted in the Indian Ocean.

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

Diesel subs are not of headache to us as they lack endurance to operate in IOR without being exposed.This is japanese navy/USN's problem.

 

[Indo-guy]

Diesel subs are not of headache to us as they lack endurance to operate in IOR without being exposed.This is japanese navy/USN's problem.

well Diesel subs in such great number frees up most of PLA's Nuclear submarines to be deployed in IOR ....
so indirectly it still has implications for us .

 

[sancho]

Diesel subs are not of headache to us as they lack endurance to operate in IOR without being exposed.This is japanese navy/USN's problem.

They already operate in the IOR and with the new AIP systems as well as Chinese funded support ports available in the region too, they will be an issue too, but yes PLAN in general is mainly aimed in securing Chinas defence in the east.

 

[axisofevil]

Diesel subs are not of headache to us as they lack endurance to operate in IOR without being exposed.This is japanese navy/USN's problem.

YOU still don't get it. YOu and your type keep thinking CHina is going to treat us different. Sry buddy ......wake the f-k up. China has revealed its ugly face for the past few decades. Ever wonder why it sort of changed recently? Because we did something they never thought we would do....we started breaking bread with the US. Never forget that. The Chinese motives are far from peaceful.

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

YOU still don't get it. YOu and your type keep thinking CHina is going to treat us different. Sry buddy ......wake the f-k up. China has revealed its ugly face for the past few decades. Ever wonder why it sort of changed recently? Because we did something they never thought we would do....we started breaking bread with the US. Never forget that. The Chinese motives are far from peaceful.

Calm down i'm only replying in context of capabilities not intentions.And diesel d\subs lack that long range capability..whatever chinese intentions may be.

 

[Genesis]

PLA will up number of Type 041 subs to 60 in 10yrs｜Politics｜News｜WantChinaTimes.com

Experts have predicted that China is likely to increase the number of its type 041 conventional submarines to 60 or 70 over the next decade. The Japanese navy also plans to increase the number of its Soryu-class diesel-electric powered submarines from 16 to 22 in response to a perceived threat from China, reports our Chinese-language sister newspaper Want Daily.
Soryu-class diesel-electric powered submarines are the latest model of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force. The vessel has a displacement of 2,000 tonnes and is equipped with an air-independent propulsion system. Japan will purchase another five of the submarine and will get delivery of one per year, increasing the total number of its Soryu-class submarines to ten.
China is preparing to test its latest type-041 diesel-electric submarine in the water recently. The vessel is similar to Germany's new submarine and equipped with an extra sonar system. Its displacement is likely to reach 3,500 tonnes.
US Pacific Command commander Samuel Locklear also said in March that China plans to increase the number of its type 041 conventional submarines to 60 or 70. The country has been building a nuclear-powered submarine that can carry JL-2 ballistic missiles. So far, the main carrier of the missiles has been the type-094 nuclear submarine, which China has four of.
British military magazine Jane's Defense said the Chinese navy has at least four nuclear-powered submarines that can launch ballistic missiles and 53 slightly outdated diesel-electric submarines. US Lieutenant General Michael Flynn said in February that China's ballistic missile nuclear submarines have carried out missions regularly and been spotted in the Indian Ocean.

I highly doubt it, like surface fleet, China is more likely to retire and induct at the same rate, so in the end, a far more capable, fleet, but one with roughly the same number.

I could see an increase, but not within 10 years, and I see nuke subs playing a bigger role, and we may even see the decrease of conventional numbers in favor of nuclear ones.

 

[Zarvan]

PLA will up number of Type 041 subs to 60 in 10yrs｜Politics｜News｜WantChinaTimes.com

Experts have predicted that China is likely to increase the number of its type 041 conventional submarines to 60 or 70 over the next decade. The Japanese navy also plans to increase the number of its Soryu-class diesel-electric powered submarines from 16 to 22 in response to a perceived threat from China, reports our Chinese-language sister newspaper Want Daily.
Soryu-class diesel-electric powered submarines are the latest model of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force. The vessel has a displacement of 2,000 tonnes and is equipped with an air-independent propulsion system. Japan will purchase another five of the submarine and will get delivery of one per year, increasing the total number of its Soryu-class submarines to ten.
China is preparing to test its latest type-041 diesel-electric submarine in the water recently. The vessel is similar to Germany's new submarine and equipped with an extra sonar system. Its displacement is likely to reach 3,500 tonnes.
US Pacific Command commander Samuel Locklear also said in March that China plans to increase the number of its type 041 conventional submarines to 60 or 70. The country has been building a nuclear-powered submarine that can carry JL-2 ballistic missiles. So far, the main carrier of the missiles has been the type-094 nuclear submarine, which China has four of.
British military magazine Jane's Defense said the Chinese navy has at least four nuclear-powered submarines that can launch ballistic missiles and 53 slightly outdated diesel-electric submarines. US Lieutenant General Michael Flynn said in February that China's ballistic missile nuclear submarines have carried out missions regularly and been spotted in the Indian Ocean.

India should be the one who needs to worry the most about increase of submarines by China and also if Pakistan at this year end signs the deal with China for delivery of 6 nuclear submarines with China Man India can come into really big trouble your Submarines force is in real trouble

 

[spectribution]

India should be the one who needs to worry the most about increase of submarines by China and also if Pakistan at this year end signs the deal with China for delivery of 6 nuclear submarines with China Man India can come into really big trouble your Submarines force is in real trouble

By 2024-25 India will have

1> 8 Nuclear Submarine
6 (Arihant) + 2(Russian) + 2 (Avinash)
2> 20 - 22 Conventional Submarine
6 (Old Kilo/Type 209) + 6 (Scorpene) + 6 (Scorpene II) + 2-4 (Indigenous Diesel Submarine)

By Convention you need 1/3 the fleet size of enemy but comparable or superior quality in order to win a Naval Battle on the defensive. Pakistan has 2 antiques ( Agosta P70) that don't run. 3 are fairly contemporary with 1 having AIP and operational, one more in refit for AIP and other at sea/mid life refit.

Basically even if you sign that deal your first submarines won't be here before 2018 - 2019 at the earliest assuming you sign it today as infrastructure, maintenance systems, training, funding, etc have yet to be arranged by which time we will have nearly 2 -3 Arihants in service and 4 of the Scorpenes as well as atleast 8 of the current old fleet and 1 -2 Russian nuclear submarines. Your P 70s will be phased out along with 1 -2 of the P90s unless you go for a very expensive mid life upgrade of the P90s.

Chinese Navy too will be phasing out old fleet and bringing in new ones but today chinese conventional fleet is between 30 - 45 meaning by that time you can expect to see a navy of around 33 - 42 submarines for PLAN albeit new submarines.

Based on what I see is a fairly balanced attrition rate in all three navies. If you are counting on freak accidents to slow down induction for IN I might as well say that you may wish for apples to float in air.

PS: Even USN has this crap with submarines.
Navy Decommissions Fire-Damaged Nuclear Submarine « CBS Boston