vish
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Well interesting points
1) THE Chinese (unlike the Indians) don't feel a need to tell everyone what they are doing. Despite that here are a few reports for you.
Dude, what is with you and Indians? If the PLAN goes ahead with an aircraft carrier excpect every Pacific navy to make a hue and cry so as to "cash in" on the euphoria. You cannot hide the making of an aircraft carrier.
China's Reform Monitor, May 10:
Citing "high-ranking military officials," Hong Kong's Wen Wei Po
reports that China's military has confirmed plans to build an aircraft carrier fleet. The People's Liberation Army will also boost its development of anti-aircraft-carrier weaponry, and has reopened its production lines for making Hong-6M bombers, the so-called "aerial aircraft-carrier killers." The news follows a report in the Qingnian Cankao Bao claiming that Russia's Defense Ministry is mulling the sale of Su-34 bombers to China, and could collaborate with Beijing in the development of Moscow's fifth-generation fighter jets.
Everybody knows how good the Sino-Russian relationship is. Moscow is pretty pissed off at Biejing for plagarizing. By the way the above report is nothing but speculation.
And another one form the herald tribune
BEIJING: As China builds a military to match its growing economic power, its neighbors and potential rivals including the United States have puzzled over a key question: When will the Chinese Navy launch an aircraft carrier?
For decades, senior Chinese military and political officials have argued that for the country to become a great power, the People's Liberation Army Navy needs to add these potent warships to its fleet.
However, the major obstacle to this ambition is that aircraft carriers are hugely expensive.
The two 50,000-metric-ton conventionally powered carriers now under development for Britain's Royal Navy are expected to cost a minimum of $2.5 billion each. To outfit them with aircraft could cost that much again.
And, aircraft carriers do not operate alone. They need a fleet of warships, submarines and supply vessels along with advanced electronic surveillance for support and protection.
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For these reasons, most experts assumed a Chinese carrier was decades away.
But after double-digit increases in defense spending over much of the past 15 years, evidence is now emerging that China has a more ambitious timetable.
"I am convinced that before the end of this decade, we will see preparations for China to build its first indigenous aircraft carrier," said Rick Fisher, the Washington-based vice president of the International Assessment and Strategy Center and an expert on the Chinese military.
Fisher and other analysts note that extensive work now appears to be under way on a carrier purchased from Ukraine, the Varyag, now moored in the northern Chinese port of Dalian.
They speculate that the Varyag, fresh from the dry dock and, according to recent photographs, now painted in the navy's gray, could be used for training or even upgraded so that it was fully operational.
Not surprisingly, the Taiwan military has also been monitoring activity on the Varyag.
At a briefing in Taipei on Jan. 19, a Taiwan military spokesman, Liu Chih-chien, pointed to satellite photographs of the carrier at anchor in Dalian, where he said it had been under repair.
"Although China claimed that the Varyag will be used as a tourist attraction, the aircraft carrier would actually be used as a training ship in preparation for building an aircraft carrier battle group," Liu said.
Analysts also report that at recent international air shows, Chinese military officers have been showing strong interest in strike aircraft suited to fly from carriers.
As with earlier reports that the Chinese Navy intended to acquire aircraft carriers, Beijing denied Taiwan's claim.
"We don't know where the Taiwanese authorities got their so-called intelligence," said Li Weiyi, a spokesman for China's Taiwan Affairs Office, according to a report carried last week by the official Xinhua news agency.
Whatever the timetable, most naval experts agree that China will almost certainly build or buy aircraft carriers.
"Given China's strategic ambitions, it's a logical move," said Sam Bateman, a maritime security expert at Singapore's Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies.
"I am sure the PLAN has carrier aspirations," he said, referring to the People's Liberation Army Navy.
Bateman said that, like the United States, two of China's neighbors, India and Japan, would be anxious about the prospect of carriers in the Chinese fleet.
What is clear is that China has already invested decades of effort in its bid to gain the technology and skills needed to build and operate these warships.
Admiral Liu Huaqing, vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission before his retirement in 1997, is widely regarded as the father of the navy's aircraft carrier program.
Heavily influenced by his exposure to top Russian naval experts during his studies in the Soviet Union as a young officer in the 1950s, Liu advocated that China should have aircraft carriers as the backbone of a "blue water" navy that could deploy beyond the country's coastal waters.
In military journals published in the 1990s he wrote that aircraft carriers would ensure China's control over Taiwan and territories it claimed in the South China Sea and match the growing military power of neighbors including Japan and India.
Liu, along with other senior Chinese defense analysts, also recognized that China was becoming a major trading power and would become increasingly dependent on secure sea lanes to carry its imports of energy and raw materials and exports of manufactured goods.
They argued that aircraft carriers would give the navy the ability to keep these sea lanes open in times of conflict or international tension.
Other analysts also say that a carrier would be symbolically important as evidence of Chinese power in the same way that U.S. Navy's aircraft carrier battle groups serve as a reminder of America's global reach.
Ok so that should be enough proof that there are gonna be carriers for the PLAN forces.
Nobody is denying PLAN's ultimate aim of having an aircraft carrier. But it has been shelved indefinitely cause the PLAN has other priorities.
2)Satellite imagery needed huh to confirm? Got some imagery to show that IAC is being built? Or are we supposed to just take your word for it?
I agree, I made an error. My bad.
If you don't want to believe that the ADS is under construction then its okay with me.
3)Only Sheer arrogance would claim that the Chinese would not be able to learn them without carriers to hand. For example practicing with a large vessel to simulate a carrier for tactics practise etc. After all India has only operated STOVL aircraft on their carriers. Its a whole other ball game to learn STOBAR
Should we assume that ti wil take decades for the Pn to learn? Maybe Chinese pilots may get seconded to the Kuznetsov for training. Imagine fo the IAF gos for a non Russian aircraft. They might be prepared to offer the Chinese all kinds of incentives to continue to buy Russian including doctrine tips and clues.
The PLAN won't learn about aircraft carriers until and unless it operates one. As far as aircraft carrier operations go, the IN is pretty much among the better players in the world. The reason being we have more or less operated an aircraft carrier continously for the past four decades.
By the way, if graduating from an STOVL to an STOBAR carrier is so difficult, won't learning an aircraft carrier anew be much more dsifficult?
Further, you're speculating (hoping) too much on the Sino-Russia "relationship." How and why will Russia provide PLAN with doctrine, tips and clues?
4)As far as you know.......
4 x 2) The SU-33 is the navalised variant of the SU-27 with reinforcement in the relevant areas etc. I could use the same argument about the Indian purchase of the navalised Mig when they already fly the MIG-29.
The Mig-29K that the IN is getting is very different from the Mig-29s that the IAF operates. What I wanted to say is given China's "tech-proliferation" record, it would be surprising that it would buy 50 Su-33s. It would rather buy two, learn the lessons, and make it on its own. But why haven't we seen any news on this development thus far since 2006?
5)Actually the French and Germans are pushing for the embargo to be lifted so I guess you are kinda wrong there.
'France and Germany Move to Resume Arms Sales to China''
On January 27, French President Jacques Chirac held a joint conference with Chinese President Hu Jintao to celebrate the "Year of China" in Paris. Chirac used the occasion to publicly call for the lifting of the European Union arms embargo on China. France and Germany have succeeded in pushing the E.U. to review the embargo and have urged the E.U. to take action before the March entrance of ten new members. On February 4, Javier Solana, the E.U. foreign policy chief, was quoted in the Geneva newspaper Le Temps as saying, "It seems to me, after discussions we had a few days ago … [that] the E.U. is ready to do it."
When was Chirac in power? Quiet some time back. EU won't lift the arms embargo for two reasons: Uncle Sam and PRC's "wonderful record" of civil behaviour.