PLA expert says China will not be a military rival to US for at least 50 years

[Götterdämmerung]

You do know that the combined GDP of Russia and China is a little over 2/3rds of the US GDP, right? I hope they take your advise and give this strategy a try. I'd be really curious to see who goes broke first.

Yeah, and that will remain so for the next 50 years, right?

 

[DrawingDead]

Yeah, and that will remain so for the next 50 years, right?

Yeah pretty much. Russia is going backward. Once the advantage of producing low cost goods is gone, China's growth growth rate is going to about the same as the US or any other developed country. Its bit of a struggle to move things along once you get to a certain point. I thought you'd know that, being German and all.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

Yeah pretty much. Russia is going backward. Once the advantage of producing low cost goods is gone, China's growth growth rate is going to about the same as the US or any other developed country. Its bit of a struggle to move things along once you get to a certain point. I thought you'd know that, being German and all.

Germany once was also a low wage country in comparison to the UK. Get educated, particularly in history.

 

[DrawingDead]

Germany once was also a low wage country in comparison to the UK. Get educated, particularly in history.

Thanks for the advise. However, I think it might be more helpful if you learned to read. Maybe then this "I thought you'd know that, being German and all" would make more sense to you. In case it still doesn't, it is regarding growing fast with the help of cheap labor and hitting the proverbial wall when your wages reach the same level as others. Reading IS fundamental.

 

[Jlaw]

No, it will take a hundred years. The expert is wrong.

And before China, there is India to rival the US. We are busy with other stuff.

i predict India with its new fighter and new aircraft carrier will rival American navy. By 2020, india would match US pound for pound, don't you agree?

Yep, you guys spend huge amounts of your own money, to help people halfway across the world who don't want to be helped, and after all that they turn around and yell "Death to America!"

Being the "world leader/policeman" is the most thankless job imaginable. Nobody wants it.

My taxpayer money should be spent for the good of the Chinese nation, and to protect our sovereignty. Not to conduct a military intervention halfway across the world in Bolivia or Nicaragua. That would be unacceptable to me.

Maybe not but I want China to have the capability to protect its overseas investment in unstable places around the world. Thus our military must always improve.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

Thanks for the advise. However, I think it might be more helpful if you learned to read. Maybe then this "I thought you'd know that, being German and all" would make more sense to you. In case it still doesn't, it is regarding growing fast with the help of cheap labor and hitting the proverbial wall when your wages reach the same level as others. Reading IS fundamental.

Thinking an understanding is even more fundamental. Imagine 1.3 billion Chinese hitting the proverbial wall when they reach the same level of German wages.

 

[DrawingDead]

Thinking an understanding is even more fundamental. Imagine 1.3 billion Chinese hitting the proverbial wall when they reach the same level of German wages.

I think we covered this is post #54 when I wrote I don't see things change that much in 50 years. Like I said before, you should really considering reading. It really helps move the debate along.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

I think we covered this is post #54 when I wrote I don't see things change that much in 50 years. Like I said before, you should really considering reading. It really helps move the debate along.

Like I said before, use some common sense.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Maybe not but I want China to have the capability to protect its overseas investment in unstable places around the world. Thus our military must always improve.

Of course.

Right now our defense spending is nearly the lowest in the world as a percentage of our government budget.

Our government budget is currently $2.2 trillion, and that is only going to increase enormously in the next decade.

By 2020-2025, everything will be in place for a massive boom in military spending. By then, our economic transition phase will be mostly over, and we will have plenty of strong weapons platforms to produce in quantity.

At that time we can increase our military spending as a percentage of the government budget to a more reasonable level, like that of other countries. The difference will be in terms of scale, in terms of both nominal defense budget, and sheer defense production output.

That should give us plenty of options to defend our interests, and our defense sector is only going to get stronger and stronger after that.

Neglecting military power/technology was our great mistake during the Century of Humiliation. It won't happen again.

 

[DrawingDead]

Like I said before, use some common sense.

Considering China's aging population, lack of wealth and the fact that their current income levels are 5 times less than the US, your advise of using common sense might be something you might want to seriously consider, perhaps even more than me?

 

[xunzi]

Protecting the world is a US job and they are good at it. They are fit to do it due to their value and what they stand for. We simply want our space. As long as the US don't touch us, they can rule the whole world if they want, including ruling India if that is something they love to do it. Go for it, USA!!

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Protecting the world is a US job and they are good at it. They are fit to do it due to their value and what they stand for. We simply want our space. As long as the US don't touch us, they can rule the whole world if they want, including ruling India if that is something they love to do it. Go for it, USA!!

Yep, the thing that matters to us is our own sovereignty.

Let others police the rest of the world if they want.

Also remember that China has the largest Shale Gas reserves in the world, enough to last thousands of years. Combine that with renewable energy sources (and our massive reserves of almost everything else) and China could one day become self-sufficient in terms of energy. Or we could even return to becoming energy exporters, like we were a few decades ago (when we were a major oil exporter).

This dream is coming closer every day. Within 1-2 decades we will be in a much better position, and technology is only going to improve as time goes on.

Even today's energy efficient technology is a big factor in the collapse of oil prices (soon oil may be cheaper than the barrel itself), imagine the technology of tomorrow. And how efficient it could be.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

Considering China's aging population, lack of wealth and the fact that their current income levels are 5 times less than the US, your advise of using common sense might be something you might want to seriously consider, perhaps even more than me?

China's retirement age is 15 years lower than Germany while the difference of life expectancy is only 5 years (and narrowing rapidly), I don't see much of a problem. China's wealth is real, while your wealth is only the printing press and your military extortion.

 

[xunzi]

Considering China's aging population, lack of wealth and the fact that their current income levels are 5 times less than the US, your advise of using common sense might be something you might want to seriously consider, perhaps even more than me?

Lack of wealth, my ***. You still owe us trillion of dollar! LOL

Aging population can be fix through immigration policy, and the future is heading toward robotic and automation. One thing I can agree with you, income level is a sizable gap. That is because we have 5 times the population of you. Just 20,000 GDP per capital is enough to cause MASSIVE global power balance.

 

[jhungary]

China and Russia can always play a game with the paranoid USA. All they need to do is to arm themself up to just below the US, e.g. the US has 10 ACC, the combined number of China and Russia should be 9. The financial burden is divided by two countries (maybe China can carry a bit more, e.g. China 6 ACC, Russia 3 ACC)

That will cripple the US economy in one or two decades.

lol if you have to randomly pick a number , why 9? Why not 13? 24? or 38?

Problem is, You can build 200 aircraft carrier for the world cares, the fact remains, how many ACC can China and Russia can operate combined?

Do bead in mind, the reason why US have 20 aircraft carrier (11 Fleet 9 LHD) is because they have more than 20 port operating thats there in the world, US Own 38 Overseas bases outside CONUS, by own that mean they are not renting the land (Like Subic in Pbilippine or Yokosuka in Japan) plus US have 4 CONUS base that can maintain the ACCs, plus 2 other overseas thats give them 20 ACC altogether

China and Russia share the same coast line, North sea is not suitable for ACC operation while black sea is chike by turkey inland, with China have 2 ports, no overseas facilities? How do China operate 6 ACC ( 2 ports mean 4 ACC need to be constantly underway, where do they go?)

Plus, when push come to shove, US would simply supply Ships of all sorts to allies, which they dont operate themselves, that mean China and Russia is no longer facing just the 20 Carrier US operating, but maybe 30 or 40 from US and Co.