PK661: These Are the Reasons Behind the Crash [Analysis]

[war&peace]

So what would be a reasonable aircraft for this particular route, and similar routes. Anyone?

C-130 converted into passenger airplane with seating for 50-60 passengers. Or increase the length of the runway and use Boeing 737 neo.

There's also an outlandish rumour circulating that the Plane actually took off on just one engine. :S highly unlikely though.

That's not highly unlikely..that's simply impossible with 47 people onboard.

 

[BHarwana]

PW121 engines has a history of failing and Pakistan should sue Pratt & Whitney Canada for this crash. French will never let the blame come to their company ATR and we will not get any good info from the black box.

Australian Gov conducted several test on the PW121 engines after several engine failures and found that they have an issue with the Tower Shaft. Tower Shaft failure is common so pack these pieces of junk back to France. Put the PIA purchase team in Jail and sue ATR for selling the plane and PWC for the faulty engine.

 

[SQ8]

Dear Sister..... We are living in LaLa land... i m not blaming my country... but the system is crap....
What happened to the crash investigation of COAS Mushaf Ali Mir??? What we know about Air Crash of Gen. Zia ul Haq?? What about Bhoja Air Crash?? What revealed about Air Blue Crash in Islamabad??? and the Foker F-27 in Northern Areas 1989??? Sorry to say but we have the answer NONE for all these air crashes. And believe me after some times this case will also be the same and "Dakhil-e-Daftar".

Please do not rant needlessly if you could not be bothered to research public knowledge

http://www.caapakistan.com.pk/SIB/SIB-Reports.aspx

COAS Mushaf - Pilot showing off to the chief trying to pass low through two peaks, miscalculated and took the lives withi him

Gen Zia - Sabotage.. beyond that no one knows.

Bhoja- Pilot defied safety regulations to get flight on time.

Air Blue- Captian was exhausted due to previous flight and fasting, but also behaved very arrogantly in the cockpit and overruled co-pilots caution on wrong approach pattern.

Fokker F-27 in nothern areas was wind shear.

 

[shehbazi2001]

So what would be a reasonable aircraft for this particular route, and similar routes. Anyone?

As someone has already pointed out, the best would be to increase the length of runway in those Northern Areas. But for the time being, both APU (Auxialliary Power Unit) and RAT (Ram Air Turbine) should be fitted to existing fleet of ATR-42s. Several turboprops have APU like Bombardier Dash-8 Q400 and Emb-120 etc. Other regional airliners offer APU as an option. Due to high elevation from sea level of these airfields and short flights, we are mostly stuck with turboprops.

 

[SQ8]

The ATR-42 was basically unfit for this route. It does not have an Auxilliary Power Unit (APU). APU can be used to supply power when the engine-driven generators fail. Also its not sure whether this aircraft had Ram Air Turbine (RAT). RAT also serves to provide power (electric and/or hydraulic) in case of engine failure. It was a bad choice by PIA. Pakistan has a history of aircraft crashes in the Northern Areas and aircrafts flying on these routes should have emergency backup systems.

http://syed-imran-shah.blogspot.fr/2016/12/dec-7-2016-crash-of-pia-atr-42-aircraft.html

I am not sure how a APU could have been critical in an engine failure situation as it has enough reserve dc power to operate the critical systems
.

The issue is with single engine altitude performance.

http://theflyingengineer.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/single-engine.jpg

 

[SherDil]

Please do not rant needlessly if you could not be bothered to research public knowledge

http://www.caapakistan.com.pk/SIB/SIB-Reports.aspx

COAS Mushaf - Pilot showing off to the chief trying to pass low through two peaks, miscalculated and took the lives withi him

Gen Zia - Sabotage.. beyond that no one knows.

Bhoja- Pilot defied safety regulations to get flight on time.

Air Blue- Captian was exhausted due to previous flight and fasting, but also behaved very arrogantly in the cockpit and overruled co-pilots caution on wrong approach pattern.

Fokker F-27 in nothern areas was wind shear.

Sorry to say SIR. Who is held responsible for all these crashes ? and what precautionary measures have been taken after all these mishaps?? All we know that at the end we forget it and label it as "Act of GOD" and fall asleep till next mishap.

 

[SQ8]

Sorry to say SIR. Who is held responsible for all these crashes ? and what precautionary measures have been taken after all these mishaps?? All we know that at the end we forget it and label it as "Act of GOD" and fall asleep till next mishap.

Did you READ any of the reports in the link?
If you haven't, then stop ranting

 

[imiakhtar]

You can not rely on flight radar data as there isn't sufficient coverage in the flight region which is why there was no map track.

Stop looking to lay fault on the aircraft. ALL EASA/FAA certified aircraft can fly on one engine. The one engine out ceiling at 17 000kg for the atr42-500 is in the region of 12 000 ft. This aircraft would have been a lot lighter due to the low fuel load required for this sector.

Once again, we have an engine failure where PIA pilots appear to have mishandled it.

The fault rests with the "best pilots in the world" and the backward piloting culture in Pakistan.

These crashes will continue to happen in the years to come until there is an overhaul of pilot selection and training in Pakistan.

Mark my words.

 

[krash]

The ATR-42 was basically unfit for this route. It does not have an Auxilliary Power Unit (APU). APU can be used to supply power when the engine-driven generators fail. Also its not sure whether this aircraft had Ram Air Turbine (RAT). RAT also serves to provide power (electric and/or hydraulic) in case of engine failure. It was a bad choice by PIA. Pakistan has a history of aircraft crashes in the Northern Areas and aircrafts flying on these routes should have emergency backup systems.

http://syed-imran-shah.blogspot.fr/2016/12/dec-7-2016-crash-of-pia-atr-42-aircraft.html

The aircraft has three different systems to supply the backup power in case of dual generator loss. Please do not follow these self-acclaimed experts who are only out to outdo each other in trying to grab some attention. How can you even think that an aircraft in today's age would not have redundancy systems built into it.

http://www.theairlinepilots.com/forumarchive/atr/atr-systems.pdf

Daily Ummat is reporting ATR cannot fly with one engine is it true ?

http://ummat.net/2016/12/08/news.php?p=news-02.gif

They are stupid. The ATR-72 can maintain sustained flight up till 11,000ft with a single engine. The ATR-42, with a better power to weight ratio, can do better.

I heard an MNA on a news channel yesterday saying that he had travelled on this very plane a few times before and that this particular aircraft had a fault in one of the engines from the past year. However few moments later an official from PIA clarified that the faulty engine had been replaced a couple of months back.



The fact that PIA was quick to not only accept the allegation made by that MNA, but also answer it seems to point that something is definitely fishy here. Now, could be that either the faulty engine was not replaced or if it was, perhaps not properly. Just a thought.

Everyone is a sciencedaan. You people are casually tossing blame everywhere without a shred of proof. Blame of killing 42 people! Bravo....

There's also an outlandish rumour circulating that the Plane actually took off on just one engine. :S highly unlikely though.

Pakistanis.

 

[nair]

According to media , pilot recited Kalma. It is possible he might have panicked after one engine malfunctioned. Still we should wait for final investigation . But it seems pilot error to me.
This aircraft was fit, just received A class clearance certificate month ago

Well i do not think one can blame the pilot yet.... The situation is beautifully explained in OP (all based on the assumptions/analysis came basedon the data available)....

The ATR-42 was basically unfit for this route. It does not have an Auxilliary Power Unit (APU). APU can be used to supply power when the engine-driven generators fail. Also its not sure whether this aircraft had Ram Air Turbine (RAT). RAT also serves to provide power (electric and/or hydraulic) in case of engine failure. It was a bad choice by PIA. Pakistan has a history of aircraft crashes in the Northern Areas and aircrafts flying on these routes should have emergency backup systems.

http://syed-imran-shah.blogspot.fr/2016/12/dec-7-2016-crash-of-pia-atr-42-aircraft.html

Assuming that the both engine failed, (as you pointed the non availability of apu and rat) But that will not cause sudden drop in altitude as in this case..... There seems to be a structural damage, either caused by a engine failure (explosion or some damage to the moving parts) or a structural damage caused by metal fatigue (this only can be found out by a detailed investigation).....

Points to be noted here is

1) There was a controlled descent for some time
2) There was a sudden drop in altitude

The first point shows that the pilot is aware of a malfunction and he is reducing the altitude to perform remedial actions for the noted failure...... (this can be found out from the FDR and FVR).... Now the 2 chances i mentioned are

1) Structural damage due to metal fatigue: The chances are low as the damage would have resulted in sudden loss of altitude and the controlled descent would not have been possible...
2) Engine Failure causing Structural Damage: Assuming that some cracks or damage to moving particle such as propeller blade, It could have caused a damage on its wing and the speed and pressure on it would have slowly resulted in further damage causing a serious damage.... Probably this is one reason we can come up with what ever available and also based on the explanation in OP

For any air crash there would be multiple failures happening simultaneously.....

 

[Aasimkhan]

Well i do not think one can blame the pilot yet.... The situation is beautifully explained in OP (all based on the assumptions/analysis came basedon the data available)....



Assuming that the both engine failed, (as you pointed the non availability of apu and rat) But that will not cause sudden drop in altitude as in this case..... There seems to be a structural damage, either caused by a engine failure (explosion or some damage to the moving parts) or a structural damage caused by metal fatigue (this only can be found out by a detailed investigation).....

Points to be noted here is

1) There was a controlled descent for some time
2) There was a sudden drop in altitude

The first point shows that the pilot is aware of a malfunction and he is reducing the altitude to perform remedial actions for the noted failure...... (this can be found out from the FDR and FVR).... Now the 2 chances i mentioned are

1) Structural damage due to metal fatigue: The chances are low as the damage would have resulted in sudden loss of altitude and the controlled descent would not have been possible...
2) Engine Failure causing Structural Damage: Assuming that some cracks or damage to moving particle such as propeller blade, It could have caused a damage on its wing and the speed and pressure on it would have slowly resulted in further damage causing a serious damage.... Probably this is one reason we can come up with what ever available and also based on the explanation in OP

For any air crash there would be multiple failures happening simultaneously.....

my 6th sense points towards structural damage. Such loss of altitude is not possible if it was able to glide

my 6th sense points towards structural damage. Such loss of altitude is not possible if it was able to glide

altough i am not an expert on the subject

 

[nair]

my 6th sense points towards structural damage. Such loss of altitude is not possible if it was able to glide


altough i am not an expert on the subject

Well the chances are high on that aspect....... Especially considering the loss of altitude..... The pilot did not have much options or time to do any remedial action......But the question is what caused the structural damage? that too on a relatively new air craft and fitted with 1 new engine......

 

[BHarwana]

You can not rely on flight radar data as there isn't sufficient coverage in the flight region which is why there was no map track.

Stop looking to lay fault on the aircraft. ALL EASA/FAA certified aircraft can fly on one engine. The one engine out ceiling at 17 000kg for the atr42-500 is in the region of 12 000 ft. This aircraft would have been a lot lighter due to the low fuel load required for this sector.

Once again, we have an engine failure where PIA pilots appear to have mishandled it.

The fault rests with the "best pilots in the world" and the backward piloting culture in Pakistan.

These crashes will continue to happen in the years to come until there is an overhaul of pilot selection and training in Pakistan.

Mark my words

There is nothing wrong with the pilots. the Aircraft engine has serious problems PWC engines has serious issues

 

[imiakhtar]

There is nothing wrong with the pilots. the Aircraft engine has serious problems PWC engines has serious issues

This point alone tells me you know little of the aviation industry.

Pratt and Whitney is the largest turboprop supplier in the world and their engine lineup from PT-6 to the largest PW150 have a reputation for robustness and reliability. Aircraft families like the atr 42/72 wouldn't be best sellers if it wasn't for the solid PW127 engines.

That is unless of course you have studied and compared the ifsd rates of pratt engines to their counterparts and found significant differences?

If it transpires that the pilots lost control due to an engine failure and failed to follow drift-down/contingency procedures then there is something very wrong with their piloting and all the blame lies on their shoulders.

 

[Furqan Sarwar]

Most likely chances are that the Investigation will not going to dig deep right into the PIA Engineering as the main fault lies there.

On Paper PIA is saying that the aircraft has an A -Check a month ago but if a proper investigation team involving PAF officials, ATR officials and PW officials dig into PIA Engineering they will find out what kind of A-Check was performed on the concerned plane and are still done on other ATRs and other planes.