PIA plane crash near Model Colony Karachi with 93+ on board

[TheNoob]

I think its ATC negligence! When a metal scraps on ground at such high speed it has to make some spark or smoke! The pilot should have been informed to land right their instead of given him permission to takeoff and land again!

A very good point.
ATC had not pointed out any visual discrepancies if the gears were not fully locked.

 

[Aspen]

May be, but in reality government's should make sure civilian residences stay far away from airport.. rules are as such. From last few years Ind an government is not allowing any new construction work near airports.


Best example is visakhapatnam airport(andhrapradesh)

For example Begumpet airport has been shifted to Shamshabad in hyderabad (telangana)

Honestly it is worst luck that plane was landing on Runway 25L.

Karachi has 4 runways and any of the other 3 would have avoided residential areas. They were large open areas near the other runways which means everyone on the plane may have survived as well. By terrible luck, the only runway that goes over dense residential areas is 25L and that is the runway the plane used.

I am wondering why the plane didn't switch from 25L to runway 25R if pilots knew there was a danger of crashing before the runway. It would have been fairly easy to turn towards the parallel runway away from residential areas unless the plane's controls were so crippled that the pilots had basically no ability to control anything. Even in worst case scenario with runway 25L, the area that lies directly underneath the flightpath is actually very small, maybe only a few hundred feet wide, a plane will cover that distance in less than 1 second. It is almost unbelievable that it didn't crash in either the open areas before or after Model Colony since the chances of it hitting that specific area is so unlikely that if the plane was just a little bit higher, lower, faster, or slower and it would've missed Model Colony and crashed in a wide open field. It was really really terrible luck that there is such a tiny area below the flightpath and that's exactly where it crashed. I would hope that if the pilots had any ability to steer it even a little bit away from Model Colony that they tried to do it. Even with extremely damaged controls, they probably would still have been able to aim for runway 25R parallel if at all possible. If they had moved 50 feet to the right or at least tried to aim for Runway 25R, they would probably have missed Model Colony and crashed in an open field and most likely everyone would have survived. The fact that they couldn't even move a little bit to the right means that the plane's controls were really crippled to the extent that it was almost unflyable, pilots could not input even basic direction commands because the plane was stalling so rapidly and had probably run out of hydraulic fluid as well as oil killing both engines at low altitude, low speed, basically making it a glider falling like a brick with zero directional control. It was really a struggle fighting the controls until the very end during the final seconds

In most aviation incidents, usually you can fix a mistake if you realize it in time. But there are certain mistakes in aviation that once you make, you are doomed and nothing can fix it. I think this PIA crash was one of those situations where after it hit the runway and aborted, nothing could save it once it decided to go around. The countdown timer started and it was a race against the clock if the plane could make it back to the runway before leaking all of its hydraulic fluid and oil causing dual engine failure and loss of control just before 2nd landing. They were so close to the runway but they were going to crash no matter what. The question was, will they crash into Model Colony, crash in an open field, or crash on the runway.

 

[Maarkhoor]

Honestly it is worst luck that plane was landing on Runway 25L.

Karachi has 4 runways and any of the other 3 would have avoided residential areas. They were large open areas near the other runways which means everyone on the plane may have survived as well. By terrible luck, the only runway that goes over dense residential areas is 25L and that is the runway the plane used.

I am wondering why the plane didn't switch from 25L to runway 25R if pilots knew there was a danger of crashing before the runway. It would have been fairly easy to turn towards the parallel runway away from residential areas unless the plane's controls were so crippled that the pilots had basically no ability to control anything. Even in worst case scenario with runway 25L, the area that lies directly underneath the flightpath is actually very small, maybe only a few hundred feet wide, a plane will cover that distance in less than 1 second. It is almost unbelievable that it didn't crash in either the open areas before or after Model Colony since the chances of it hitting that specific area is so unlikely that if the plane was just a little bit higher, lower, faster, or slower and it would've missed Model Colony and crashed in a wide open field. It was really really terrible luck that there is such a tiny area below the flightpath and that's exactly where it crashed. I would hope that if the pilots had any ability to steer it even a little bit away from Model Colony that they tried to do it. Even with extremely damaged controls, they probably would still have been able to aim for runway 25R parallel if at all possible. If they had moved 50 feet to the right or at least tried to aim for Runway 25R, they would probably have missed Model Colony and crashed in an open field and most likely everyone would have survived. The fact that they couldn't even move a little bit to the right means that the plane's controls were really crippled to the extent that it was almost unflyable, pilots could not input even basic direction commands because the plane was stalling so rapidly and had probably run out of hydraulic fluid as well as oil killing both engines at low altitude, low speed, basically making it a glider falling like a brick with zero directional control. It was really a struggle fighting the controls until the very end during the final seconds

In most aviation incidents, usually you can fix a mistake if you realize it in time. But there are certain mistakes in aviation that once you make, you are doomed and nothing can fix it. I think this PIA crash was one of those situations where after it hit the runway and aborted, nothing could save it once it decided to go around. The countdown timer started and it was a race against the clock if the plane could make it back to the runway before leaking all of its hydraulic fluid and oil causing dual engine failure and loss of control just before 2nd landing. They were so close to the runway but they were going to crash no matter what. The question was, will they crash into Model Colony, crash in an open field, or crash on the runway.

Just after go around....pilot inform ATC he lost both engines....at this altitude no one could have any other options.

 

[Aspen]

Just after go around....pilot inform ATC he lost both engines....at this altitude no one could have any other options.

With total engine failure, gliding depends on 2 things and 2 things only:

1. Altitude
2. Speed

There have been several successful examples of airliners gliding to ditch in an emergency where everyone survived

US Airways 1549
British Airways 38
Air Canada 143
Ural Airways 178
Air Transat 236

But those were all gliding from a high altitude and good speed which makes much gliding much easier.

I don't think there has ever been a successful airliner glide from low altitude low speed situations.

How long they PIA was able to glide depends on when engines failed. If both engines quit at 2000ft altitude, they could have glided for a few minutes almost to the runway and had enough altitude to aim for an open field or somewhere to ditch in an emergency. If both engines quit on short final at low altitude, then they're f*****. But even a gliding airplane with dual engine failure would still be able to have some directional control to aim away from residential areas-unless flight controls were damaged by hydraulic failure also which appears to be the case. This is basically the worst case scenario, a plane at low altitude, low speed, with no power, and no directional control. In aviation, this situation is called coffin corner because you cannot get out of it unless you find somewhere open to ditch at the last second. Literally cannot be worse. On the CCTV video, the plane is a glider falling like a brick.

I don't think there was any way to land that plane given what they were dealing with. They could only hope to try to crash it safely in an open field somewhere but they didn't have directional control because of hydraulic loss so they couldn't even do that.

What I want to know is:

1. Did plane have directional control?
2. Did plane have ability to turn right to avoid hitting Model Colony and aim for open field?
3. If they did have ability to turn, why didn't they aim for open field?

 

[Imran Khan]

can you guys stop ifs and buts???????? everyone tried to save lives at last minutes but they lost .

 

[R Wing]

Honestly, the flight was doomed when pilot made the decision to abort



If plane didn't touch the ground, then what the hell are the black marks on the bottom of the engines?

Firstly, you were right! The plane did touch down but (probably due to a landing gear issue) had to rapidly climb up again and try another landing.

Secondly, some members (who had technical knowledge of A320 engines) had pointed out in this thread that the black marks could also have another source (i.e. other than skid marks during the initial aborted landing.)

It was an hypothesis. Please explain other possibilities that may lead to identical black on the base of both engines.

Your hypothesis is correct! One of the survivors, Zubair, confirmed that they did touch down but had to rapidly climb up again (landing gear issue, presumably.)

The other potential causes of the black marks were mentioned by someone else in this thread earlier (would have to go through 40+ pages to find the post.)

Their was another incident long time ago with PIA where the pilot forgot to retract his wheels and landed on belly. I believe it was a 747 but i am not sure.
Here is a video of aviation expert who also has mentioned that engines hit the ground.

It does seem like the plane hit during the first landing attempt. One of the survivors confirmed this in an interview with Shahzeb Khanzada.

May be, but in reality government's should make sure civilian residences stay far away from airport.. rules are as such. From last few years Ind an government is not allowing any new construction work near airports.


Best example is visakhapatnam airport(andhrapradesh)

For example Begumpet airport has been shifted to Shamshabad in hyderabad (telangana)

Islamabad Airport has also shifted away from the congested city. You're right.

Cannot be. Alternate extension is always available.

Noted, thank you.

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

Their was another incident long time ago with PIA where the pilot forgot to retract his wheels and landed on belly. I believe it was a 747 but i am not sure.
Here is a video of aviation expert who also has mentioned that engines hit the ground.

This happened in 1983, Aircraft involved was a B747-200 registration AP-AYW.
https://historyofpia.com/acciphoto.htm

Karachi has 4 runways and any of the other 3 would have avoided residential areas. They were large open areas near the other runways which means everyone on the plane may have survived as well. By terrible luck, the only runway that goes over dense residential areas is 25L and that is the runway the plane used.

Karachi Airport has 2 Runways but we use both ends so
1) 25L is one end and the opposite end is 07R.
ILS approach is available on 25L and wind is also favorable all year long.
Visual approach is performed for 07R and is mostly used during winter when winds are favourable.

2) 25R/07L is unservisable for a very long time. It is however used by light training aircraft.
First NOTAM for this was way back in 2008 and is continued till todate.

So the runway that is available for normal operation is 25L/07R. In this case 25L was the one this aircraft was landing till the time approach was notified of the MAY DAY. AFTER MAY DAY both runways were available but if you are already committed on final and cleared to land and are 0.1-0.2 DME out you continue. This is what was being executed.

Those who have flown in this area know that at this time 1430 heat is causing quite a few problems on final approach. At the crash site the height above ground on an ILS approach is not more than 200ft.
In clean configuration approach speed is way higher than normal adding to this if you have no engine power then the aircraft can only trade hight for speed in doing this the attitude will be far steep but seeing the buildings approaching fast the pilot tries to gain height as you can see from the CCTV and eye witness accounts and then tried to lower the nose but that was not possible and the aircraft crashed.

One more thing that I had been told from day one by my father and all the other instructors was that as soon as you have touched down do not go around if runway is clear.

 

[R Wing]

BIG QUESTIONS

1.) During the first landing attempt, was the landing gear extended but not 'secured' properly (meaning it collapsed upon landing impact despite being extended) OR did it simply not extend? I'm assuming it's the former, as the ATC and/or the pilot would have noticed if the landing gear wasn't extended at all.

2.) Given that both engines were damaged in the initial landing attempt (serious impact), what is the emergency procedure to be followed by the pilots and the ATC? Did they both follow it properly? It seems that one should stay grounded even if it's a belly landing VS go around again.

For me, this is the crux.

This happened in 1983, Aircraft involved was a B747-200 registration AP-AYW.
https://historyofpia.com/acciphoto.htm


Karachi Airport has 2 Runways but we use both ends so
1) 25L is one end and the opposite end is 07R.
ILS approach is available on 25L and wind is also favorable all year long.
Visual approach is performed for 07R and is mostly used during winter when winds are favourable.

2) 25R/07L is unservisable for a very long time. It is however used by light training aircraft.
First NOTAM for this was way back in 2008 and is continued till todate.

So the runway that is available for normal operation is 25L/07R. In this case 25L was the one this aircraft was landing till the time approach was notified of the MAY DAY. AFTER MAY DAY both runways were available but if you are already committed on final and cleared to land and are 0.1-0.2 DME out you continue. This is what was being executed.

Those who have flown in this area know that at this time 1430 heat is causing quite a few problems on final approach. At the crash site the height above ground on an ILS approach is not more than 200ft.
In clean configuration approach speed is way higher than normal adding to this if you have no engine power then the aircraft can only trade hight for speed in doing this the attitude will be far steep but seeing the buildings approaching fast the pilot tries to gain height as you can see from the CCTV and eye witness accounts and then tried to lower the nose but that was not possible and the aircraft crashed.

One more thing that I had been told from day one by my father and all the other instructors was that as soon as you have touched down do not go around if runway is clear.

Your last sentence is EXACTLY what many international observers have been puzzled about. If there was impact (damage could be critical), why did the pilot do a go around?

 

[Aspen]

This happened in 1983, Aircraft involved was a B747-200 registration AP-AYW.
https://historyofpia.com/acciphoto.htm


Karachi Airport has 2 Runways but we use both ends so
1) 25L is one end and the opposite end is 07R.
ILS approach is available on 25L and wind is also favorable all year long.
Visual approach is performed for 07R and is mostly used during winter when winds are favourable.

2) 25R/07L is unservisable for a very long time. It is however used by light training aircraft.
First NOTAM for this was way back in 2008 and is continued till todate.

So the runway that is available for normal operation is 25L/07R. In this case 25L was the one this aircraft was landing till the time approach was notified of the MAY DAY. AFTER MAY DAY both runways were available but if you are already committed on final and cleared to land and are 0.1-0.2 DME out you continue. This is what was being executed.

Those who have flown in this area know that at this time 1430 heat is causing quite a few problems on final approach. At the crash site the height above ground on an ILS approach is not more than 200ft.
In clean configuration approach speed is way higher than normal adding to this if you have no engine power then the aircraft can only trade hight for speed in doing this the attitude will be far steep but seeing the buildings approaching fast the pilot tries to gain height as you can see from the CCTV and eye witness accounts and then tried to lower the nose but that was not possible and the aircraft crashed.

One more thing that I had been told from day one by my father and all the other instructors was that as soon as you have touched down do not go around if runway is clear.

25R may be unserviceable but in a desperate emergency like this, surely any runway was available to them? It was either they aim for open field near 25R or 25L where they can't clear the top of buildings in Model Colony. Frankly I am amazed that they chose 25L. I am guessing they chose 25L because when they chose it, they thought they could make it all the way to the runway. There is really no other explanation. If they knew they couldn't make it to the runway and still chose 25L knowing that there is a real chance they could hit Model Colony if they fell short, that is like a death sentence. If the engines failed earlier, they would likely have realized the urgency of the problem sooner while they were at a higher altitude and tried to aim for 25R instead. By the time engine failed on 25L approach, they knew they were too low to clear Model Colony but it was too late to do anything. But even in that situation, if they made a last second turn to the right, I think they could've cleared it laterally. If they made a last minute turn at low altitude where CCTV video is, they would definitely have missed both runways for sure and they would've crashed in an open field. But crashing in a field is still better than crashing into a residential area. The fact that they couldn't turn at all leads me to believe that either they had no directional control on the stick because of hydraulic failure and very sudden stall that left very little to react before crash or they decided to stay on 25L approach for some mysterious reason.

 

[Baghial]

Inna Lillahi Wa Inna Ilaihi Rajiun.

Maybe one lesson we can learn from this mishap is to not attempt a second take off with a malfunctioning/damaged aircraft under any circumstances.
In hindsight, it seems that landing on the nose in the first attempt might have incurred less casualties despite the risk of the air frame breaking apart causing rapid depressurisation.

...in belly landing, nose is the last part of airplane which needs to be lowered toward ground, most of the drag has to occur on tail. then the wings, then the nose, to keep the plane stable, and not flip over or turn side ways,

 

[Aspen]

BIG QUESTIONS

1.) During the first landing attempt, was the landing gear extended but not 'secured' properly (meaning it collapsed upon landing impact despite being extended) OR did it simply not extend? I'm assuming it's the former, as the ATC and/or the pilot would have noticed if the landing gear wasn't extended at all.

2.) Given that both engines were damaged in the initial landing attempt (serious impact), what is the emergency procedure to be followed by the pilots and the ATC? Did they both follow it properly? It seems that one should stay grounded even if it's a belly landing VS go around again.

1) Skid marks on bottom of engine point to gear not being "locked" aka collapsed. It also explains hydraulic fluid and oil leakage from the bottom of the engine where it scraped runway as white smoke seen in the picture which caused landing gear issues, flap problems, control loss, and engine failure.

2) To be honest, I don't think an aborted gear collapse landing is something most pilots train for currently but they should in the future. I think Emirates 521 crash in Dubai was a good example of what would've happened if PIA stayed on ground after gear collapse. Emirates 521 bounced hard on landing and then had landing gear collapse but pilot kept it on ground. Emirates plane was completely destroyed but every single person survived because pilot did the right thing by not aborting after plane hit the ground.

The problem is really that belly landing/gear collapse is the ONE AND ONLY situation in aviation where it is better to have a rough landing than to abort. It goes against every single pilot instinct to stay on ground after a bad landing, pilots are trained to abort when they have trouble during landing. The thing you have to remember is that belly landing/gear collapse is the one exception that goes against this rule where it is better to crash land than to abort no matter how bad the landing is, it will always cause more problems in the air than on the runway. Aborting after belly landing/gear collapse is a death sentence and you have a much higher chance of being killed in a crash after aborting a belly landing/gear collapse than if you stay on the runway no matter how bad the belly landing/gear collapse was. A belly landing/gear collapse will always be worse in the air than on the runway.

 

[PanzerKiel]

 

[Aspen]

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Did you take these pics?

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

25R may be unserviceable but in a desperate emergency like this, surely any runway was available to them?

Yes it was made available to them at approximately 2000ft after cleared to land on 25L was already given. approach also asked if they were intending to belly land which was responded by AFIRM and then loss of engines and a MAY DAY all this happened in less than a minute.
If you may have heard the audio then the call was 5 miles out of 3500 for 3000 established on ILS 25L... Clear LAND. and the last words that are heard where Mayday is heard is approximately 1 min.

It was either they aim for open field near 25R or 25L where they can't clear the top of buildings in Model Colony. Frankly I am amazed that they chose 25L.

If you are a pilot than you know that ILS has both visual and instrument to guide. Any pilot who is in an emergency would prefer ILS over Visual specially if he is on limited instruments without power and unreliable electrical supply. Pilot would see PAPPIS to guide him and this is what he was doing.

Last minute turn to the right and realignment with the other runway (25R) could have them loose sight of the runway all together. Do remember that turn also drops your nose as you bleed off airspeed. This is something that can not be lost in the final few minutes of landing even in Ideal conditions.

I am guessing they chose 25L because when they chose it, they thought they could make it all the way to the runway.

If you think you can not make it then you can not even move your fingers.

If the engines failed earlier, they would likely have realized the urgency of the problem sooner while they were at a higher altitude and tried to aim for 25R instead. By the time engine failed on 25L approach, they knew they were too low to clear Model Colony but it was too late to do anything

It would have made no difference they would still have chosen the runway with an ILS which is only available at 25L.

But even in that situation, if they made a last second turn to the right, I think they could've cleared it laterally.

They could have hit the high tension wires and ultimately crashed into anti aircraft in malir cantt area.

If they made a last minute turn at low altitude where CCTV video is, they would definitely have missed both runways for sure and they would've crashed in an open field.

There is no open field in that area. there is a road which is approx 90 meters wide with tree line and heavy intensity electrical wires in the centre.
The CCTV video shows that the aircraft nose is pitched up. It seems like it is approx 40-50 feet agl. Usually Flare height is 40ft so they had flight control but did not have right speed and height.

But crashing in a field is still better than crashing into a residential area. The fact that they couldn't turn at all leads me to believe that either they had no directional control on the stick or they decided to stay on 25L approach for some unknown reason.

 

[Baghial]