Alright guys here is my revised theory:
- Plane comes in for 1st landing attempt
- Landing gear extends down but does not fully lock
- Pilots have no idea that gear is faulty
- When plane lands, gear is unstable, engines hit ground
- Engines scrape ground causing black skid marks
- Pilot immediately goes around
- Plane goes around for 2nd landing attempt
- Plane circles in air for 7 minutes between landings
- During these 7 minutes, hydraulic fluid and oil is rapidly leaking out from pipes that were scraped on bottom of engine. Fuel is NOT leaking out.
- Total loss of hydraulic failure after all hydraulic fluid leaks out from ruptured hydraulic pipes on bottom of scraped engine, flaps stop working and landing gear issues get worse. White smoke in PSPK picture is hydraulic fluid leaking out of bottom of the scraped engine.
- Ram Air Turbine or manual gear drop deployed to solve landing gear issue.
- All oil rapidly leaks out from oil sumps on bottom of scraped engine, both engines shut down without oil, plane now becomes glider with no thrust. Fan blades in engine are intact which means engines were not running when plane crashed.
- Since both engines stop working, plane rapidly loses altitude during approach and crashes.
- Plane was only leaking hydraulic fluid and oil, not fuel so there is plenty of fuel left when plane crashes causing massive fireball.
Asalaamoalikum, Hope you’re all going well and staying safe.
There is a video (Link posted above) that tells you that the RAT is only for electrical and electronics, the landing gear is hydraulic. So RAT wasn’t for the landing gear but to power electronics and electrical systems (this point will add up near the end of my post so please bare with me).
Another point raised in the video; from the control tower and pilot comms is that you can clearly hear the ding ding ding sound for landing gear issue.
Now your assessment seems most rational.
I’m not an aviation engineer but do work in naval and have systems engineering knowledge. We have backups upon backups upon backups, aviation is known to be even more quality driven. If the landing gear, say did operate but did not lock then I would have believed there existed a feedback signal for landing gear local indication?
Anyway, in case the gear didn’t lock, the pilot just can’t know if the gear is down because you can’t see the gears, simple. Now assume the wasn’t sure then could he not have asked one of the crew to check? I know crew gets pissed at peeps who walk up and down during approach but this is safety issue. If not then the pilot couldn’t have known if the gear was down or what and only way to know is when you hear a bang, in this case something else which would be hitting the tarmac.
But if you do realise the plane has hit the tarmac and the nose is dipping then shouldn’t the pilot know that if the nose is dipping then that most probably means the plane is pivoting at a fulcrum .... which would be the engines and if you are down then stay down because chances are you’ve probably damaged your engines. If you damaged your engines then you won’t have any power for electrical or electronics, thus the RAT.
These are my two bits , sure I can be wrong.
Finally, May I also say that no one should blame the pilot or say otherwise. When you are in the field you do as you are trained so training is where one should be brutally critical. I nor anyone should blame the pilot as I’m sure he did his level best and in this case it just wasn’t enough. Sure we all can be at fault but never doubt ones intention as only Allah knows what we hide what we reveal. I would like believe the pilot did his level best to save all, he did his best and saved two, rather Allah did indeed.
We all have to return to Allah one day.May Allah ease our pain and suffering and give us sabr so that we may be successful in this late and after amen.
Inna lillahi wa inna ilaihi rajioon.