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Philippine elections could set ties with China back on track
By Li Kaisheng Source: Global Times Published: 2015-12-29 20:38:01
Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
How the China-Philippines relationship will develop in 2016 depends on two factors, namely, Manila's presidential election and the arbitration case in Hague. The election, to be held next May, may be one of the most dramatic in Manila's history. While polls suggest that Grace Poe is promising for the nation's next president, her eligibility has been questioned. Meanwhile, the approval rate for Mar Roxas, a candidate from the ruling party, is far from ideal. The Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte has made the election result more unpredictable. As a substitute for his party colleague Martin Diño, Duterte has turned out to be quite popular among the voters, even if he missed the deadline to file his candidacy.
Filipinos may be facing the most confused poll results in recent years. According to the latest survey conducted by Social Weather Station, Jejomar Binay, the vice president and one of the candidates, has become the first runner in this race. When the respondents in the polls are always changing their positions, who can predicate the final result of this long competition?
Manila's relationship with Beijing is expected to witness major changes if Duterte or Binay is elected. In the first place, they, unlike current president Benigno Aquino, hold a relatively open attitude to China-proposed bilateral negotiations over the South China Sea. This may help realize détente with Beijing.
Instead of negotiating directly with China, the Philippines referred the maritime disputes to international arbitration, which will be of little help to address the South China Sea issue. The Philippines, under Duterte's or Binay's governance, may come back to the right track of resolving disputes through bilateral consultation.
However, if the new government is pro-US, it is highly likely that Manila will insist the Hague's final ruling should be fully implemented if it wins, which the Chinese side will never accept. In this situation, both sides will face a new standoff. Disputes over the South China Sea remain one of the biggest obstacles in Beijing-Manila relationship. Putting this issue under control is a prerequisite for the bilateral relations to come back to a sound track.
In addition to the territorial disputes, compared with other pro-US candidates, Duterte or Binay may have no intention to engage too closely with the White House. It has to be admitted that Manila, as a former US colony, is susceptible to influence from the world's largest economy. No matter which party will be in office next year, the nation will stick to its alliance with the US. Yet, Manila's specific foreign policies are closely connected to its new leader's attitude and stance. While "pro-US" is the overall tune for the nation, the extent of intimacy is varying under different governments.
The White House is likely to exert less influence over the Philippines if Duterte or Binay is elected. Manila-Washington cooperation may even see some zigzags as Duterte has no intention to be too intimate with the White House. However, it is still too early to conjecture about the final result of the election. Anyway, Manila's Beijing policies may be quite different under different leaders' governance.
Beijing-Manila divergences will have negative effect on their bilateral cooperation in the field of infrastructure. Even if the nation's infrastructure development lags far behind other regional countries, the Philippines is quite cautious in cooperating with China. Tokyo is now vigorously competing against Beijing for Manila's market. Thus, although Manila is an important nation along the route of the Beijing-initiated "One Belt, One Road" project, the positive effects of the initiative over Beijing-Manila relationship remain limited.
Above all, the relationship between China and the Philippines next year hinges on the presidential election and the arbitration case in Hague. Of course, the interaction between China and the new Philippine government will be another key. If a new Philippine president wants to change, he or she may need some response from China. Moreover, no matter who will come into office, the alliance between the Philippines and the White House will be stable.
Yet the extent of intimacy with Washington will be determined by the stance of the new government. For the sake of a sound relationship, Beijing and Manila ought to carry out direct negotiations and consultations to address the territorial disputes over the South China Sea. This is the only realistic way for their bilateral relationship to come back to the right track.
The author is an associate research fellow at the Institute of International Relations, Shanghai Academy of Sciences
By Li Kaisheng Source: Global Times Published: 2015-12-29 20:38:01
Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
How the China-Philippines relationship will develop in 2016 depends on two factors, namely, Manila's presidential election and the arbitration case in Hague. The election, to be held next May, may be one of the most dramatic in Manila's history. While polls suggest that Grace Poe is promising for the nation's next president, her eligibility has been questioned. Meanwhile, the approval rate for Mar Roxas, a candidate from the ruling party, is far from ideal. The Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte has made the election result more unpredictable. As a substitute for his party colleague Martin Diño, Duterte has turned out to be quite popular among the voters, even if he missed the deadline to file his candidacy.
Filipinos may be facing the most confused poll results in recent years. According to the latest survey conducted by Social Weather Station, Jejomar Binay, the vice president and one of the candidates, has become the first runner in this race. When the respondents in the polls are always changing their positions, who can predicate the final result of this long competition?
Manila's relationship with Beijing is expected to witness major changes if Duterte or Binay is elected. In the first place, they, unlike current president Benigno Aquino, hold a relatively open attitude to China-proposed bilateral negotiations over the South China Sea. This may help realize détente with Beijing.
Instead of negotiating directly with China, the Philippines referred the maritime disputes to international arbitration, which will be of little help to address the South China Sea issue. The Philippines, under Duterte's or Binay's governance, may come back to the right track of resolving disputes through bilateral consultation.
However, if the new government is pro-US, it is highly likely that Manila will insist the Hague's final ruling should be fully implemented if it wins, which the Chinese side will never accept. In this situation, both sides will face a new standoff. Disputes over the South China Sea remain one of the biggest obstacles in Beijing-Manila relationship. Putting this issue under control is a prerequisite for the bilateral relations to come back to a sound track.
In addition to the territorial disputes, compared with other pro-US candidates, Duterte or Binay may have no intention to engage too closely with the White House. It has to be admitted that Manila, as a former US colony, is susceptible to influence from the world's largest economy. No matter which party will be in office next year, the nation will stick to its alliance with the US. Yet, Manila's specific foreign policies are closely connected to its new leader's attitude and stance. While "pro-US" is the overall tune for the nation, the extent of intimacy is varying under different governments.
The White House is likely to exert less influence over the Philippines if Duterte or Binay is elected. Manila-Washington cooperation may even see some zigzags as Duterte has no intention to be too intimate with the White House. However, it is still too early to conjecture about the final result of the election. Anyway, Manila's Beijing policies may be quite different under different leaders' governance.
Beijing-Manila divergences will have negative effect on their bilateral cooperation in the field of infrastructure. Even if the nation's infrastructure development lags far behind other regional countries, the Philippines is quite cautious in cooperating with China. Tokyo is now vigorously competing against Beijing for Manila's market. Thus, although Manila is an important nation along the route of the Beijing-initiated "One Belt, One Road" project, the positive effects of the initiative over Beijing-Manila relationship remain limited.
Above all, the relationship between China and the Philippines next year hinges on the presidential election and the arbitration case in Hague. Of course, the interaction between China and the new Philippine government will be another key. If a new Philippine president wants to change, he or she may need some response from China. Moreover, no matter who will come into office, the alliance between the Philippines and the White House will be stable.
Yet the extent of intimacy with Washington will be determined by the stance of the new government. For the sake of a sound relationship, Beijing and Manila ought to carry out direct negotiations and consultations to address the territorial disputes over the South China Sea. This is the only realistic way for their bilateral relationship to come back to the right track.
The author is an associate research fellow at the Institute of International Relations, Shanghai Academy of Sciences
