This news has amused me so much that I can’t stop laughing. My speculation is that this is a very crafty play in which China puts US on the spot and very possibly it ties with Blinken‘s visit. The balloon doesn’t play any spying role but conveys a political message to US implicitly. Let me explain.
From the very beginning, China flys this high altitude balloon to US deliberately. US military knew the balloon is not for spying purposes but they knew it come on other purpose, likely to be political. The report was “they (military leaders) reckon it does not create significant value added over and above what the PRC is likely able to collect through other means, like satellites in Low Earth Orbit, and thus it does not pose a significantly enhanced threat on the intelligence side.”
China has a script that US will shoot it down even US knew the balloon is not harmful in any way. If it does so, China will announce to the world that the balloon is for scientific purpose and is UNCONTROLLABLE on its drift journey to US. It is US “overreacted” and used force unnecessarily. Remember this is the same line that US used on China when China reacted to Pelosi‘s Taiwan, which was UNCONTROLLABLE by the U.S. government. So come back to Blinken’s visit, the message is that US government needs to sort out its uncontrollable politicians, otherwise no visit by Mr Blinken. However, if US does not play the game and let it fly past US airspace, it will make US look like a fool.
It was reported US military detected the ballon when it was in Alaska. Why did they take no actions? My speculation is that back then, the balloon is out of reach of any US fighter jet by floating over and above their operating ceiling so they can only watch it. Later it actually descended considerably to “allow” it to be shot down and therefore complete the script. The soft comment from US military officials indicates that they know the balloon is there for political purposes rather that military. They rather not reacted to it and let political leaders to react.