PDF Indians turned Psephologists :D

[INDIC]

Highest ever turnout of 66.38% recorded in this Lok Sabha election - The Times of India

 

[Jai_Hind]

Being rhetorical makes you correct ?

I aint just being rhetoric... I travel good, and talk with people... To be frank, I havent seen any modi effect in strict rural bengal. No posters, flags or even a clue of BJP exists there, while TMC and CPM rules in these areas in publicity department... Then again urban areas such as district capital and subdivisions have decent amount of modicraze...

 

[arp2041]

Can anyone tell me the prediction in MP and Rajasthan

Both are there in OP.

I am from MP BJP getting anywhere from 21-26.

 

[nForce]

I aint just being rhetoric... I travel good, and talk with people... To be frank, I havent seen any modi effect in strict rural bengal. No posters, flags or even a clue of BJP exists there, while TMC and CPM rules in these areas in publicity department... Then again urban areas such as district capital and subdivisions have decent amount of modicraze...

Thank you.. wanted to hear some argument justifying your claim, thats all..Well..seriously not much to speculate for we are in the final stages...Lets wait for the results, what do you say?

 

[banvanaxl]

NDA 278 + 10.

That's probably the most reasonable estimate.

 

[Jai_Hind]

Thank you.. wanted to hear some argument justifying your claim, thats all..Well..seriously not much to speculate for we are in the final stages...Lets wait for the results, what do you say?

Some seats are expected to have repolls on 14th and thats it for 5 years.... 16th afternoon will be interesting

 

[arp2041]

@JanjaWeed @Indischer can u predict Karnataka?

 

[kaykay]

So basically BJP is almost winning ~80 out of 91 seats from 4 states(MP, Raj,Guj and CG) and ~70 out of 120 from UP and Bihar seems very realistic.
So ~150 out of 211 seats from 6 states. You can see where BJP or I say Modi took leads while others trailed far behind. @jha @Roybot @Sidak

 

[jha]

I aint just being rhetoric... I travel good, and talk with people... To be frank, I havent seen any modi effect in strict rural bengal. No posters, flags or even a clue of BJP exists there, while TMC and CPM rules in these areas in publicity department... Then again urban areas such as district capital and subdivisions have decent amount of modicraze...

Very accurate analysis. Best BJP can hope is some vote surge in urban Bengal. They should concentrate on making strongholds and then move on from there.

 

[illusion8]

@JanjaWeed @Indischer can u predict Karnataka?

BJP - 14 -16
cong - 8-10
JDS - 2-4

btw

what are the other alliance parties in both NDA and UPA?

 

[Jai_Hind]

Very accurate analysis. Best BJP can hope is some vote surge in urban Bengal. They should concentrate on making strongholds and then move on from there.

Yes, arrival of BJP in urban areas will open a new chapter in this traditional battlefield of CPM and TMC, and hope someday bengal moves away from both of this evils....

 

[Indischer]

@JanjaWeed @Indischer can u predict Karnataka?

My estimates are the inverse of Illusion's predictions for Cong and BJP.
BJP = 10-13 seats
Cong = 14-16 seats
JD(S) = 2-5 seats

There is a real good chance that both BJP and Cong might end up with the same number of seats too, given the exit poll predictions. But the inefficiency of the State BJP unit is still somewhat fresh in the minds of the average voter, I feel.

BJP - 14 -16
cong - 8-10
JDS - 2-4

btw

what are the other alliance parties in both NDA and UPA?

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

Cross Posting....................













Let's chk how it turns out on 16th

@scorpionx @DRAY - ur estimates on WB?

@Rajaraja Chola - Tamil Nadu pls.

When I voted for Modi, in Chennai South Constituency, I thought, I am just voting for increasing the percentage of BJP, just to remind Dravidian parties, BJP is fast catching ground. But later, when I had a chat with my school buddies, coll juniors, seniors who were in contact with me, all were unanimous with BJP (except two - one for NOTA, another for AAP), which even shocked me. I always believed Amma is going to wash out the DMK, and she had been playing the game for her ambition quite intelligently. But the DMK, by ditching Alagiri, and promoting his charismatic younger sibling Stalin, have staged a comeback. He rallied the DMK cadres back, and still 7-10 votes are a big share for them considering their status 6 months back.
BJP have definitely increased the vote share, mostly younger guns, and considering if they get more than 5 seats they can be definitely be happy.
My estimate ADMK- 28-29
DMK-7-10
BJP-5-6

As per Exit Polls NDA. Official confirmation on 16th.

Perhaps its time for BJP voters to jump in bay of bengal ?

 

[Parul]

When I voted for Modi, in Chennai South Constituency, I thought, I am just voting for increasing the percentage of BJP, just to remind Dravidian parties, BJP is fast catching ground. But later, when I had a chat with my school buddies, coll juniors, seniors who were in contact with me, all were unanimous with BJP (except two - one for NOTA, another for AAP), which even shocked me. I always believed Amma is going to wash out the DMK, and she had been playing the game for her ambition quite intelligently. But the DMK, by ditching Alagiri, and promoting his charismatic younger sibling Stalin, have staged a comeback. He rallied the DMK cadres back, and still 7-10 votes are a big share for them considering their status 6 months back.
BJP have definitely increased the vote share, mostly younger guns, and considering if they get more than 5 seats they can be definitely be happy.
My estimate ADMK- 28-29
DMK-7-10
BJP-5-6



Perhaps its time for BJP voters to jump in bay of bengal ?

Modi wave will Push all BJP supporters to Shore.

 

[Soumitra]

My estimates are the inverse of Illusion's predictions for Cong and BJP.
BJP = 10-13 seats
Cong = 14-16 seats
JD(S) = 2-5 seats

There is a real good chance that both BJP and Cong might end up with the same number of seats too, given the exit poll predictions. But the inefficiency of the State BJP unit is still somewhat fresh in the minds of the average voter, I feel.

I also think BJP 12-14 Cong 14-16 Rest others. and JD(S) will ultimately support whoever forms the govt in Delhi