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Ex-US envoy for de facto partition of Afghanistan
TNN, Jul 8, 2010, 04.57am IST
NEW DELHI: Should Afghanistan be divided into two? Former US envoy to India, Robert Blackwill, has suggested that the US should effect a de facto partition of Afghanistan.
The current counter-insurgency is not working, he says, because the Taliban don't see why they should negotiate peace when they haven't been defeated on the ground. The US, he suggests, will have to reconcile to the fact that the Taliban will control southern Afghanistan. They should be allowed to do so.
"After years of faulty US policy toward Afghanistan, there are no quick, easy and cost-free ways to escape the current deadly quagmire. But, with all its problems, de facto partition offers the best available US alternative to strategic defeat," Blackwill argues in an article in `Politico'.
Having let the Taliban control southern Afghanistan, the US, he says, should "then focus on defending the north and west regions -- roughly 60% of the population. These areas, including Kabul, are not Pashtun-dominated and locals are largely sympathetic to US efforts".
But it would not mean that the US would completely exit. Instead, "we would then make it clear that we would rely heavily on US air power and special forces to target any al-Qaida base in Afghanistan, as well as Afghan Taliban leaders who aided them. We would also target Afghan Taliban encroachments across the de facto partition lines and terrorist sanctuaries along the Pakistan border."
The US would work to secure the north and west and Kabul, which has considerably less Taliban presence or influence. "This might mean a long-time residual US military force in Afghanistan of about 40,000 to 50,000 troops. We would enlist Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras and supportive Pashtuns in this endeavour, as well as our NATO allies, Russia, India, Iran, perhaps China, Central Asian nations and, hopefully, the UN Security Council."
The US, he says, would retain the freedom to strike at even civilian Taliban leaders in southern Afghanistan.
The arrangement, he says, would make Pakistan unhappy, but a "Pakistan would likely oppose de facto partition. Managing Islamabad's reaction would be no easy task -- not least because the Pakistan military expects a strategic gain once the US military withdraws from Afghanistan."
Ex-US envoy for de facto partition of Afghanistan - India - The Times of India