Parrikar not a easy person to deal with-RFP deviation strengthen French negotiators on MMRCA

[sancho]

What in your opinion is the risk in scrapping rafale, and redirecting it to PMF FGFA.

You can only re-direct the budget to procure them, but not the operational roles, nor the industrial advantages we hoped to get through MMRCA. FGFA is meant for air superiority in the first place, mini AWACS should be an important role, just as SEAD or pre-emptive strikes, everything where it's stealth or sensor advantages can be used to the maximum effect.
MMRCA on the other side, is based on more basic roles like QRA and CAP especially in peace times, CAS and given that we haven't that capability so far, deep strikes with Cruise Missiles. It takes over roles from both lower and high end fighters in the fleet, either with more performance or lower operational costs. FGFA can't do most of that on a frequent basis, because it's simply too costly to operate heavy class stealth fighters in basic roles. So apart the industrial loss, IAF would have several operational problems too!

LCA mk2 will enter production in 2016, so by 2020, you can have 10 years of life extension on mig27's, two sqdns of LCA mk2 and three additional sqds of Mig 29.

The problem of the Mig 27s are the engines! They cause far too many technical problems, which is why IAF phase them out even earlier than expected and possibly even the 2 already upgraded squads, so that's not an option.
LCA MK2 production start is aimed on 2019 and even that seems to be optimistic the way LCA MK1 IOC and FOC are going on. Adding Mig 29SMTs with limited radar, avionics and no weapon advantages, especially not against China is again only an option to keep squad numbers on paper, but not on getting the neccessary capability into the IAF.

The FGFA is only going to enter service by 2022 at the earliest (around the time the final batch of the 126 Rafales would be delivered into IAF hands). The risk is the IAF's depleting SQD strength won't be addressed for another decade (if you go down the FGFA route)and in about 2 years the fleet numbers will crash through the floor as the MiG-21s and 27s are all retired from service.

Actually that's not a problem, the squadron number was always a hyped issue and is just a matter of the production capacity and available options. The first MMRCA squad is expected at the end of 2017 (at least if we want Rafales) and with the production in India starting slowly, I highly doubt that we would get more than 2 to 3 squads till 2020 .
An alternative would be, to get more LCA MK1 and MKIs from HAL, simply by increasing the production capacity, while one could add 1 or 2 squads of Pak Fa (Russian version) till 2020 too. So we can easily cover the squadron numbers without MMRCA, but the fleet would be top heavy as you pointed out, especially since LCA MK1 is far too less capable to use it against China, which would force IAF to high operational hours of MKI and Pak FA on the eastern side.

 

[Hulk]

I think we should look for options and not stick to Rafale, I am surprised that we hear that the only option is ET and there is nothing else that can be done.

 

[halfilhal]

Govt. must have saved billions with sustained drop in crude oil prices. Possibility of buying more birds should be dangled in front of greedy frenchies.

 

[jha]

Dassault can kiss Goodbye to the deal if they try to deviate from RFP. An early decision is the need of hour. If more MKIs are to be ordered, those should be ordered in 2015 itself so that Production line can be extended.

This part is intriguing and shows how incapable was Saint Anthony as RM.

Parrikar was amused how previous government allowed Dassault Aviation hijack whole MMRCA negotiation with India. Dassault not only dictated terms but also started diverting from original Request for Proposal (RFP) clauses issued by India.

 

[Krate M]

BTW there is a possibility that this news is being pushed by Su HAL lobby. Sukhoi manufacturing at HAL would be winding down soon and they might be pushing for a longer run of manufacture. It is smart in a sense that we already have a facility for manufacturing which is running and has solved any manufacturing issues.

 

[sancho]

BTW there is a possibility that this news is being pushed by Su HAL lobby. Sukhoi manufacturing at HAL would be winding down soon and they might be pushing for a longer run of manufacture. It is smart in a sense that we already have a facility for manufacturing which is running and has solved any manufacturing issues.

HAL has nothing to do with that, since they don't bother which fighter they produce. The MKI production line will be used later for FGFA, so will keep on producing fighters anyway.
This is nothing but a reminder of the MoD, specifically of the DM to Dassault to comply to our demands, the same things that the former DM and the former IAF Chief told them since 2013 too, just that then the main issue Dassault brought up was the workshare.

 

[Tshering22]

I say either they go back to actual price escalation levels for two years or we cancel the deal.

 

[dray]

hi,
Don't get me wrong. i am a big Rafale fan, and I know we will see it in IAF color. Let this be just an exercise to to tickle some scenarios.

What if we go through Mig 27 Dare III upgrades for all existing airframes. It will be a max 0.75 billion dollar project
And as a stop gap measure induct three sqdns of Mig29K (not m2 or ovt, upg or ) as it is already in production for the navy. there is nothing the mig29K cannot do that the mig29upg can. it will provide STOL so a prime candidate for the forward operating bases.

LCA mk2 will enter production in 2016, so by 2020, you can have 10 years of life extension on mig27's, two sqdns of LCA mk2 and three additional sqds of Mig 29.

With MMRCA cancelled, there could be some fire lit under HAL's feet to ramp up LCA mk2 to 20 units a year.

Sure it's not ideal, we will still be short on sqdn strength, but we have been short on sqdn strength for decades now.

With 10-15 billion dollars in the kitty, We can start producing single seat russian config PMF FGFA in 2022 with MKI production winding up in HAL Nasik, we can start MKI'sing Pakfa to twin seat PMF FGFA.

What the approximate cost of 126 MiG29K or Grippen would be with full ToT? And what would be missing compared to Rafale? We know we will miss ToT for US contenders.

 

[trident2010]

so funny to see indians all over the place with this one..

Atleast we have some where to go .. not like ....

 

[MilSpec]

What the approximate cost of 126 MiG29K or Grippen would be with full ToT? And what would be missing compared to Rafale? We know we will miss ToT for US contenders.

Saab Gripen is an inferior, unproven (in testing) platform which has very little to offer that LCA mk2 doesn't. It's mis mash weapons platform and US engine makes Supply chain even more difficult... Although off topic, i'd say, acquiring SAAB wouldn't have been a bad choice for HAL.

Mig29K cost would be lower and imo could be looked at as option only and only if Rafale was cancelled. Procuring 126 of them would be mistake. In my personal opinion 2 to 3 sqdns of Mig29K's would just be a stop gap measure like the original mrca was intended to (with m2k and m29 in contention).

Rafale (and EFT- maybe) offers much more than Mig35, f16IN, F/A 18 SH could have offered in terms of service rate, availability, mission configuration, and technology with a low RCS platform.

The only way Rafale can be cancelled if Russians become pro-active and fast track FGFA PMF with Mig29K or a SU30MKI/BM as stopgap. I am not convinced with the "top heavy" term that was coined by pencil pushers in IAF and made famous by hack "journalists".

Things have started to heat up with the new government, am excited to see what will cook in the kitchen