Oh yes, our industry and exports were booming under Dar, textile mills were being set up left, right, and center...all industrial sectors were showing tremendous progress, we were growing our industrial base, agriculture output was at it's peak, and so on.
Fact of the matter is we became a service economy which was hooked on imports like a drug addict getting hooked on heroin. First you burn billions in keeping the USD at a lower rate, and then you burn further dollars to import all sort of junk you can find.
The SEZ's, what happened to them, how many SEZ's are working and are actually producing something here? All China did was to shift their manpower into Pakistan, and make infrastructure in the middle of nowhere on our money. The Chinese IPP"s are another example of daylight robbery.
You misunderstood my post. 4 years, stiff opposition from all quarters (establishment, judiciary and their backed lackey) is not sufficient to implement a long term policy effectively. However, the base was prepared. When Dar left, we had many new power plants coming online which gave us surplus power, something which had been severely missing due to which even the existing industry had moved out of the country to Bangladesh, Vietnam etc., during PPP era. Any Government could simply continue with the policy and build on it through incentives to FDI and local investors etc.
Imran Khan's witch hunt which did not prove effective was an exercise which was not just futile, it was effectively killing our economy and our relations with other countries. Investigations into CPEC projects and Chinese officials is a prime example which spooked the Chinese and halted all CPEC progress; which has still not recovered. I used to hope that CPEC would earn us 10-15 Billion a year just through transit costs by China. Pity.
PML was importing CPEC related equipment and machinery along with Military related high cost items (Submarines) because of which our imports were quite high during that period. Unnecessary/Luxury import was probably just about 15%-20% including New Cars. SEZ's was an idea, a long term strategy to invite FDI, how else do you lure investor other than stability of political governments and policies, stable, cheap and surplus power supply, low cost land, tax holiday for 10-25 years etc.? Dar could only give the vision as it took 4-5 years just to setup and complete the power plants and acquire land for SEZ's from provinces. It was always the task of the incoming Government to build on the foundation which was all set.
What Chinese infrastructure is in the middle of nowhere and useless? And how are Chinese IPP's an example of robbery considering that the country was facing 18+ hours of load shedding when the Chinese were requested to invest in power projects on priority, especially when power plants weren't actually part of the CPEC projects. The only thing I can agree on is the fact that China dumped massive manpower into Pakistan which we should have refused as all those jobs and menial tasks should have gone to local labor.
This isn't an accusation my good sir, it can be seen from State Bank's own figures.
Alright, I am looking at it from a lens...what about the scores of objective economists? Atif Mian, Dr Zubair, the NUST professor, Abid Sulehri, even Dawn's own Khurram Hussain (I don't agree with anything the guy says though), and many more. Sab dunya kay economists ghalat hain? Please find me one reputable source which agrees with Daronomics.
Again, you misunderstood my post. All I was saying that Dar must have been a magician or he must have an unlimited stock of USD to burn, plunder, subsidize, invest and still have a decent amount in the reserve!
As for Dar's performance, all you have to do is look up Fitch, Moody's, IMF, WB reports and their outlook on Pakistan's economy in 2016 right up to 2017 up until the point when Dar was removed; and that's when you don't even consider my point above.
The rest of what you wrote is just fluff, so I'll just write the following.
No where did I say selling shares is a problem, which you conveniently condensed my argument down to, a bit dishonest perhaps?
But selling shares preferentially, and a markedly lower price, by bypassing all transparency and corporate laws, that's a problem.
Let's say the fair share price of OGDCL is PKR 20. Due to the current situation, it falls to 10. On that PKR 10, you give a further discount of 10%, and then 'preferentially' give the shares to your friend in exchange for PKR 9 per share (note, the fair value is 20). Now, you put in a buy back clause. But after 2 years, the share price in all likelihood would be PKR 30.
So you sold a PKR 20 share for PKR 9, and then bought it back for PKR 30, and you are saying this is a good thing! Amazing.
1- We do need structural reforms in our SOE's, and need to overhaul our business practices. But having a fire sale on everything, and completely REMOVING all checks and balances for transparency isn't the way to go.
2- The intention is to sell shares to Qatar and UAE at all costs, just to get $ 4 billion right now, so that N can buy a couple more months in power and Miftah can go to the establishment and tell them yeah we are safe, give us more time. And the IMF agreement too. After all, when has N ever thought long term about a project, huh? Not like they installed expensive plants on imported fuel on capacity payment terms...woh to PTI nay lagaye thay.
Again, perhaps you were focusing on your argument(s) and I was on mine; to put across the point. Therefore, let's dial down on the dishonesty so that the arguments remain civil; I advance you the benefit of doubt even when I have reservations, perhaps you should do likewise.
As I said earlier, it is time for some issues to be decided on war footing even if it means selling off SOE's; especially when it is to our long term allies such as UAE/Saudi Arabia or even Turkey (hypothetically, if Turkey is willing to buy anything). I wonder if many here would still have an issue with the matter, if not fiercely advocate the same, if only it was Imran Khan selling the shares as opposed to the incumbent. So first, we need to decide whether there is a problem with:
1. the selling of the shares
2. the timing and the rate of the shares
3. those who are selling the shares
4. the process of selling the shares (bypass of transparency etc,)
5. all off the above.
Additionally, I agree to point 1 but I must stress that we do not have the luxury at the moment. On point 2, PTI has not involved itself in any new project worth mentioning and so NO, they did not even invest/setup the power plants, it was all PML. However, 1 particularly fundamental aspect of the entire Power Plants saga that opponents people often ignore, apart from the fact that the power plants were setup when Pakistan was facing acute shortage of power and industry was being left at the mercy of 18+ hours of load shedding every single day, is the fact that everything was planned at rupee close to 105/USD and NOT at 180/USD which made all the difference in the world and which is criminal to ignore when criticizing PML.
