Pakistan's prospects of 5% growth rate at risk, says World Bank r

[Khan_21]

Why not all of them, plus its Saturday today I have a lot of time to waste

more poor in India than all Africa .

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india...-on-poverty/story-ys7Oths8HIzK21WWdB8AnL.html

The eight Indian states that have similar number of poor as in 25 African countries are Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Odisha, Rajasthan and West Bengal. The poorest region in south Asia is Bihar, the analysis states.

In 2010, the Oxford analysis had concluded that there were more poor in India than in sub-Saharan Africa. Its 2014 analysis said the largest number of people classified as ‘destitute’ among developing countries was in India.

Sabina Alkire, director of the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, told Hindustan Times on Thursday that the least poor Indian states according to the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) in 2015 remained the same as in the 2010 analysis.

They are: Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Mizoram, Goa and Delhi.

The 2015 analysis is based on the last available data from India, Alkire said, and added that as per poverty estimation of seven south Asian countries, Afghanistan is the poorest, followed by India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka.

Bihar is the poorest region in all of south asia .

Your entire society and per capita is run by 60 - 70 billionaires while rest of the society is in doldrums .

http://indianexpress.com/article/in...-unequal-country-after-russia-report-3013286/

India is the second most ‘unequal’ country in the world after Russia, with millionaires controlling more than half of its total wealth, a report by Johannesburg-based wealth research firm New World Wealth said earlier this week.

In India, 54 per cent of its wealth is controlled by millionaires. While India is among the 10 richest countries in the world with a total individual wealth of $5,600 billion, the average Indian is quite poor, the report said.

“The higher the proportion the more unequal the country is. For instance, if millionaires control over 50 per cent of a country’s wealth, then there is very little space for a meaningful middle class,” the report said.


http://scroll.in/bulletins/22/how-t...-help-take-a-big-step-towards-a-cleaner-india

No small matter
Income inequality has been a persistent problem in India, as demonstrated by a World Economic Forum report last year. The report said that India has a high Gini coefficient of 51.4%. The coefficient measures inequality on a scale of 0-100 – 100 signifies maximum inequality, where all the wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few, and 0 implies that it is shared equally.

India, according to the WEF study, fared worse than other countries in the same income bracket, such as Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan. India was ranked 32nd out of 34 countries in the same income group.

Most Indians are dirt poor . Much more poorer than a normal Pakistani .

I would rather have 5 % growth of Pakistan , much less poverty and a bigger middle class

Middle Class Adults .

Pakistan has more % of middle class adults . India 's Population is 7 times bigger but it's middle class is only 4 times bigger than ours .

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

CPEC sounds like a good idea to an outsider however the claims of it (transformational to the entire Pak economy and it's macro performance) does not match up with the reality of its roll out or the pledged funds. I could just about believe the tall claims if $490bn had been promised but "just" $46/49bn seems like a drop in the ocean and if implementation is already slipping this figure is going to be eaten away simply because of time delays.
Power, roads, rail, ports etc are not cheap, they are highly capital intensive ventures and for hundreds of new projects spread the length and breadth of Pakistan I simply don't see how one can buy the claims.

Throwing money at a problem isn't going to solve it. After independence, Ghana took a few loans and began a massive infrastructure project connecting the expanses of the country to port cities. The problem was many of these, 6 lane, roads or rail tracks led to nowhere. the GDP grew massively mostly the multiplication of investments of loans, but it fell dramatically also, the State owned Farms were over manned, Universities constructed with few to no students. And the country fell, unable to pay back it's loans. Even when it was the grand darling of the world, and of the African Continent. But it was forced to restructure. Now with a per capita of $10,000.

Take Jamaica for another example. The IMF wanted it to restructure their dairy industry, allow foreign imports. You would think for all the fight Jamaica fought back against this idea the daily industry employed hundreds? Well no, if I recall the film correctly it was a dozen people.

Pakistan has to look at this $49 or $55 Billion, whatever, as a lifeline. Because it is. No other country or organization in the world will ever give that much money to anyone. Unless you're Bill Gates and give it all away when you die. This is a chance for Pakistan to show it has gotten over negligences of the past and is, not able, but capable of carrying out wide scale projects for development, a Pakistani "New Deal".

India despite having 7 times more population has a middle class thats only 4 times bigger than Pakistan.

Income Inequality. Which over time India will be able to combat and possibility see 20-33% growth of the middle class. But it all comes to how a nation categorizes the "middle class" or sets the poverty line.

Pakistan's has a poverty of 33%, The World Bank rates it at 21.04%, and I can say that 60% of Pakistanis are in poverty. So who's right? All three of us actually, because we all have a different view of how much a citizen should make to be either below or above poverty. Pakistan rates it at 3,030 rupees a month, while the World Bank says $1.25 a day, where as I can say $2.02.

 

[Khan_21]

Income Inequality. Which over time India will be able to combat and possibility see 20-33% growth of the middle class. But it all comes to how a nation categorizes the "middle class" or sets the poverty line.

Pakistan's has a poverty of 33%, The World Bank rates it at 21.04%, and I can say that 60% of Pakistanis are in poverty. So who's right? All three of us actually, because we all have a different view of how much a citizen should make to be either below or above poverty. Pakistan rates it at 3,030 rupees a month, while the World Bank says $1.25 a day, where as I can say $2.02.

Both World bank and Multi dimensional poverty index rate Pakistan poverty much lower than India .

At $ 1.90 spend per day

Pakistan

6.1 %
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/country/PAK

India

21 %
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/country/IND

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/47528-pakistan-ranks-better-than-india-bangladesh-on-poverty-scale

Pakistan fares better Even in Multi dimensional poverty

A person is identified as multi dimensionally poor (or ‘MPI poor’) if he is deprived of at least one third of the weighted indicators. In other words, the cut-off for poverty is at 33.33 percent. The proportion of the population that is multi dimensionally poor is measured through the incidence of poverty, or headcount ratio. Average proportion of the indicators in which poor people are deprived is called the intensity of poverty. If a person is deprived in 20-33.3 percent of the weighted indicators they are considered ‘vulnerable to poverty’, and if they are deprived in 50 percent or more, they are identified as being in ‘severe poverty’.

According to the index, Pakistan’s MPI is 0.230 and the percentage number of poor is 44.2 percent. The intensity of poverty across the poor is around 52.1 percent, where 15.1 percent of the population is vulnerable to poverty, 23.7 percent lives in severe poverty, and 20.7 percent is classified as destitute. Destitute people are those deprived of even basic amenities of life.

The MPI for India is 0.283 and the percentage number of poor is 53.7 percent. The intensity of poverty across the poor is 52.7 percent, where 16.4 percent of the population is vulnerable to poverty, 28.6 percent lives in severe poverty, and 28.5 percent is classified as destitute.

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

Both World bank and Multi dimensional poverty index rate Pakistan poverty much lower than India .

And here's the HDI:

India: 0.609
Pakistan: 0.583

You want to be as close to 1.

 

[Khan_21]

And here's the HDI:

India: 0.609
Pakistan: 0.583

You want to be as close to 1.

HDI is not the be all end all . For example


http://www.dawn.com/news/1246041

Pakistanis are happier than Indians once again, according to findings of a United Nations-sanctioned report released on Wednesday.

Out of a total 157 countries that were evaluated, Pakistan came in at 92, while India was placed at 118. Both countries have slipped as last year's rankings had Pakistan at 81 and India at 117.

GDP per capita, healthy years of life expectancy, social support (as measured by having someone to count on in times of trouble), trust (as measured by a perceived absence of corruption in government and business), perceived freedom to make life decisions, and generosity (as measured by recent donations).

Differences in social support, incomes and healthy life expectancy are the three most important factors

So its HDI plus alot of other factors . But we were just discussing poverty here

 

[farhan_9909]

Something structurely is wrong with Pakistan economy and only someone like Asad umar can solve it.

Even Bangladesh economy is better managed than Pakistan.

Can you imagine that Dar Sahab can't even update the base year and we are talking under him Pakistan pulling 7%.

The slight improvementnis because of reforms under IMF.

 

[Kabira]

Something structurely is wrong with Pakistan economy and only someone like Asad umar can solve it.

Even Bangladesh economy is better managed than Pakistan.

Can you imagine that Dar Sahab can't even update the base year and we are talking under him Pakistan pulling 7%.

The slight improvementnis because of reforms under IMF.

You meant this?

"The progress on change of base of National Accounts from 2005-06 to 2015-16 was also presented it was mentioned that PBS has completed the field work of Rent Survey, SHMI, Construction Survey and Household Integrated Income & Consumption Survey while, their reports are in progress. It was further informed that field work of five more surveys will be launched in the current month. The Chair showed satisfaction on the pace of work."

http://nation.com.pk/national/01-Oc...er-preparations-for-population-housing-census

Looks like work is still in progress to change base year.

 

[Nilgiri]

Middle class adults. India despite having 7 times more population has a middle class thats only 4 times bigger than Pakistan. Pakistani economy functions in a different way to Indian economy . Pakistan despite having 5 % growth is having a much positive effect on its population because of the money distribution in the country . Its much more spreadout in people compared to a India. We had decades of 7 % growth rate throughout our history . We had 7 -7.5 % growth rate recently in Musharraf era without CPEC. We only suffered due to bad terrorism patch from 2009 - 2013. The good news is we are coming out of it and all indicators are very positive.

7 % growth rate is only benefitting the rich in India . How else do you explain the record number of suicide by poor farmers?

The Credit Suisse numbers come with the caveat that they classify by wealth and not income. Problem with this (as talked about in the Credit Suisse report itself) is that it completely misses non-wealth/low-transfer generating spending (consumption of energy, rents, transport, food etc.)...which is especially prevalent among those that have come out of poverty and are just starting to enter the middle class, which is the transition where India is. I forget if Credit suisse did these classification purely by nominal or PPP as well, which would also alter the number from reality for the sake of simple international comparison (if nominal was chosen)

When done by income and accounting for PPP, India middle class is clearly growing and is not dominated by "billionaires" or whatever only:

Now if you can provide such a pyramid for Pakistan, that would be welcome.

So far I have not been able to find one.

 

[Khan_21]

The Credit Suisse numbers come with the caveat that they classify by wealth and not income. Problem with this (as talked about in the Credit Suisse report itself) is that it completely misses non-wealth/low-transfer generating spending (consumption of energy, rents, transport, food etc.)...which is especially prevalent among those that have come out of poverty and are just starting to enter the middle class, which is the transition where India is. I forget if Credit suisse did these classification purely by nominal or PPP as well, which would also alter the number from reality for the sake of simple international comparison (if nominal was chosen)

When done by income and accounting for PPP, India middle class is clearly growing and is not dominated by "billionaires" or whatever only:

Now if you can provide such a pyramid for Pakistan, that would be welcome.

So far I have not been able to find one.

Indian middle class might be growing but it's not doing good against Pakistan . For example out 34 countries it was ranked 32 in lower middle class income

Here I will post detailed Figures how Income is shared across India and Pakistan .

https://knoema.com/WBPED2016/poverty-and-equity-database-2015?country=1001140-pakistan

https://knoema.com/WBPED2016/poverty-and-equity-database-2015?country=1000690-india

Figures are for 2010

India

Upper Class
Income Shared by Highest 10 % = 29.98 % value
Income Shared by Highest 20 % = 44.22 %

Poor

Income Shared by lowest 10 % = 3.52 % value
Income Shared by lowest 20 % = 8.20 %

Middle Class

Income Share held by second 20 % = 11.79 % value
Income Share held by Third 20 % = 15.24 %


Pakistan

Upper Class
Income Shared by Highest 10 % = 25.62 % value
Income Shared by Highest 20 % = 39.52 %

Poor
Income Shared by lowest 10 % = 4.21 % value
Income Shared by lowest 20 % = 9.59 %

Middle class
Income Share held by second 20 % = 13 .18 % value
Income Share held by Third 20 % = 16 .47 %



As you can clearly see by figures Pakistan 's poor and middle class are richer than India in terms of income and wealth both . These figures were for 2010 and I suppose the figures have gone in Pakistan favour even more now .

@AsianUnion Since you revived that thread and i just happen to write about it now .

 

[Nilgiri]

Indian middle class might be growing but it's not doing good against Pakistan . For example out 34 countries it was ranked 32 in lower middle class income

Here I will post detailed Figures how Income is shared across India and Pakistan .

https://knoema.com/WBPED2016/poverty-and-equity-database-2015?country=1001140-pakistan

https://knoema.com/WBPED2016/poverty-and-equity-database-2015?country=1000690-india

Figures are for 2010

India

Upper Class
Income Shared by Highest 10 % = 29.98 % value
Income Shared by Highest 20 % = 44.22 %

Poor

Income Shared by lowest 10 % = 3.52 % value
Income Shared by lowest 20 % = 8.20 %

Middle Class

Income Share held by second 20 % = 11.79 % value
Income Share held by Third 20 % = 15.24 %


Pakistan

Upper Class
Income Shared by Highest 10 % = 25.62 % value
Income Shared by Highest 20 % = 39.52 %

Poor
Income Shared by lowest 10 % = 4.21 % value
Income Shared by lowest 20 % = 9.59 %

Middle class
Income Share held by second 20 % = 13 .18 % value
Income Share held by Third 20 % = 16 .47 %



As you can clearly see by figures Pakistan 's poor and middle class are richer than India in terms of income and wealth both . These figures were for 2010 and I suppose the figures have gone in Pakistan favour even more now .

Thats inequality. For growth there has to be inequality.

I mean you can compare Pakistan's with China's:

Are we going to say from that, Pakistan's (and India's for that matter) middle class is doing a lot better than China's? How about developed countries that may have worse inequality than Pakistan (eg. USA)?

I really doubt Pakistan's inequality has gotten "better"....given how economic growth models work out in the short and medium term....if Pakistan has improved economically by any reasonable amount since 2010, its inequality would most certainly have gotten "worse".

Thats just how economic growth works (those that benefit the most are already in the middle class or rich...and those that graduate from poor to middle class dont pack enough punch to reverse the inequality rise overall).....I have yet to see one country that grew economically at a fast clip while improving its inequality. That happens much later on if and when socialist welfare states are created like in Europe.....but thats well after the high growth period.

Comparing middle class to middle class, I prefer gross wealth/income distribution pyramids and also full on consumption metrics of goods and services.

Inequality is way down the list of relevant important things given the transition profile of developing countries in this regard. Good to keep in mind, but certainly not something I would rank middle classes between countries on as the be all, end all.

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

So its HDI plus alot of other factors . But we were just discussing poverty here

And for some reason, when the title obviously says "Pakistan", "Growth Rate", "World Bank" not "India", Pakistan", "lets whip out our di<ks and measure".

 

[Khan_21]

Thats inequality. For growth there has to be inequality.

I mean you can compare Pakistan's with China's:

Are we going to say from that, Pakistan's middle class is doing a lot better than China's?

I really doubt Pakistan's inequality has gotten "better"....given how economic growth models work out in the short and medium term....if Pakistan has improved economically by any reasonable amount since 2010, its inequality would most certainly have gotten "worse".

Thats just how economic growth works (those that benefit the most are already in the middle class or rich...and those that graduate from poor to middle class dont pack enough punch to reverse the inequality rise overall).....I have yet to see one country that grew economically at a fast clip while improving its inequality. That happens much later on if and when socialist welfare states are created like in Europe.....but thats well after the high growth period.

Comparing middle class to middle class, I prefer gross wealth/income distribution pyramids and also full on consumption metrics of goods and services.

Inequality is way down the list of things given the transition profile of developing countries in this regard.

As you said credit suisse is wealth and not income well am perfectly fine with that . As far as our middle class remain wealthier I wouldn't see much into it income trends .

Income trends in Pakistan would need further looking but I did come up with Median household income

http://www.riazhaq.com/2015/03/comparing-median-incomes-of-bangladesh.html

Pakistan's per capita median income is $73.26 per month in terms of 2005 PPP (purchasing poverty parity) US dollars as of 2010. It is higher than India's $60.48 and Bangladesh's $51.67 per capita per month, according to the World Bank.

I will tag you when I get the income trends for Pakistan

 

[Kabira]

The poorest region in south Asia is Bihar, the analysis states.

I remember reading article of Indian who visited some war effected FATA areas and was surprised quality of houses were better then in Bihar villages.

 

[wiseone2]

Middle class adults. India despite having 7 times more population has a middle class thats only 4 times bigger than Pakistan. Pakistani economy functions in a different way to Indian economy . Pakistan despite having 5 % growth is having a much positive effect on its population because of the money distribution in the country . Its much more spreadout in people compared to a India. We had decades of 7 % growth rate throughout our history . We had 7 -7.5 % growth rate recently in Musharraf era without CPEC. We only suffered due to bad terrorism patch from 2009 - 2013. The good news is we are coming out of it and all indicators are very positive.

7 % growth rate is only benefitting the rich in India . How else do you explain the record number of suicide by poor farmers?

define middle class

I remember reading article of Indian who visited some war effected FATA areas and was surprised quality of houses were better then in Bihar villages.

bihar is a mess. it has population half of Pakistan

 

[Acknowledge]

I remember reading article of Indian who visited some war effected FATA areas and was surprised quality of houses were better then in Bihar villages.

Forget Bihar villages, Jharkhand villages are worse than Bihar villages.

But then again, those two are the tragedy states of India. Very very high population and chronic poverty.