"Pakistan's Nukes Outstrip India's, officials say"

[SeaGull]

NUKLEAR PARITY OR SUPERIORITY MEANS NOTHING. IT STILL REMAINS MADNESS IN ITSELF AND AT THE VERY LEAST IT PREVENTS YOU BOTH FROM STAGING CONVENTIONAL WARS AT REGULAR INTERVALS, JUST LIKE THE GOOD OLE TIMES.

 

[SeaGull]

Let me tell you a story- the story of one of our Bengali Babu who, fascinated by the tales of the legendary pathan hospitality, went to the rocky terrain of the NWFP to witness for himself firsthand this strange phenomenon.
Oh, this will be in the days when we were still one as East Pakistan - No passport, no Visa - just go and feel free stuff.

As he trolled around, sure enough he came across a Pathan who caught hold of him & in his customary way, insisted that the Bengali be his guest. Since the Bengali was there for it in the first place, he merrily agreed and together they started walking the distance to the host's house.

On the way the host Pathan met another Pathan a friend of his, who after exchanging pleasantries asked the first Pathan who the guy with him was.
The first Pathan joyfully announced that he was his guest that he just found. On hearing this the 2nd Pathan requested to have the guest for himself as his own honoured guest.
Now, the 1st Pathan wouldn't agree to his friends unjust demands - that in turn angered the 2nd Pathan and who in a fit of rage asked one last time if he could have the guest.

2nd: "Alaka, tum humko Mehman nahin dega?"
1st: " Nahin Dega - hargiz nahin"
2nd: "Achha thik hai - tum mehman nahin dega - to hum tumhara Mehman mare ga"

To which the Pathan said nothing and holding the Bengali by the scruff of his neck resumed his walk home.
The Bengali is smart - he knew what lay in store for him at the altercation of these Pathans as clearly spelled out by the enraged Pathan - and started pleading begging cajoling and imploring his host to let him go - that he be rather not anyones guest.
The Pathan unfazed by the invocations of the Bengali, assured him not to worry at all.
" O Khocha tum kiyun ghabrata hai - agar woh humara ek mehman mare ga to hum uska dus[10] mehman mare ga'

The nightmares of this Bengali should also be your nightmares. How would it matter to you if you can kill 100/200 million Indians with your nukes, when you yourself will be wiped off in their counter strike. Also called MAD _ Mutually Assured Destruction.

 

[afriend]

I think pakistan would definitely be more prepared for a war, than india, given their prominence of military in their social and political structure. But i hope india too have identified and recitified itself considerably to counter any eventuality. Because defence planners would always keep the worst case scenario in mind while planing things. India's sheer size and enormous budget for military means they have enough arsenal to sustain and inflict damage on enemy. However at what cost is a big question!!!!

 

[xebex]

Pakistan nukes outstrip India’s, officials say
U.S. reverses assessment of South Asia nuclear balance
By Robert Windrem and Tammy Kupperman
NBC News
Updated: 10:35 a.m. ET Oct. 24, 2003

WASHINGTON, June 6 - Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is vastly superior to that of rival India, with up to five times the nuclear warheads, say U.S. military and intelligence officials now reassessing the South Asian balance of power. Interviews with senior U.S. officials in the past week revealed the view that Pakistan not only has more warheads than its longtime adversary, but has far more capability to actually use them.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS TESTS by India and Pakistan in May 1998 caught American intelligence off guard. While U.S. agencies long had known about weapons-development research in both countries, the decision by both to go public with their capabilities shocked policymakers.

Since then, U.S. intelligence and diplomacy has focused on South Asia with a new intensity. Until recently, for instance, Pakistan was considered to have somewhere between 10 and 15 nuclear weapons and India between 25 and 100.

But after two years of intelligence gathering, officials now believe those figures overstate the capabilities of India’s home-grown arsenal and understate those of Pakistan, whose program has relied on generous Chinese assistance. One official said the Pakistanis “are more likely to have those numbers [25 to 100 weapons] than the Indians.”

Perhaps most important, the official said, is that Pakistan appears far more capable than India of delivering nuclear payloads. “I don’t think their [the Indian] program is as advanced as the Paks,” the official said, speaking particularly of ballistic missiles.

Marine Corps Gen. Anthony Zinni, commander of the U.S. Central Command, said longtime assumptions that India had an edge in the South Asian strategic balance of power were questionable, at best.

“Don’t assume that the Pakistani nuclear capability is inferior to the Indians,” said Zinni, the senior U.S. officer responsible for the Middle East and South Asia.

Other military and intelligence officials, as well as an intelligence analysis of South Asia’s nuclear balance obtained by NBC News, shed more light on the revised view. NBC News is the broadcast partner of the MSNBC.com joint venture.

“They both have a capability,” said one senior military official. “Pakistan’s may be better than India’s, with more weapons and more capability.

“You can’t underestimate the Pakistani program,” said the official. Like most of the officials NBC News contacted, this one would speak only on condition of anonymity.

DOCUMENTS SUPPORT REVISED VIEW

These officials believe India understands that it is behind. A recent Defense Department analysis of the Indian program obtained by MSNBC.com states that India is moving to address its shortcomings.

Quoting India’s recently publicized draft nuclear doctrine, the Defense Department report said that “India announced its plans to develop a minimum nuclear deterrent force comprised of a triad of nuclear delivery systems - air, mobile land-based launches and sea-based platforms. The air component of its triad is the only one that may be in place already.”

The U.S. report also states that “India probably has a handful of nuclear bombs,” meaning about five. With regard to delivery systems - the missiles and bombers needed to launch a nuclear strike - U.S. officials now believe Indian capabilities to be seriously lagging.

According to the Defense Department document, which is unclassified, India has no nuclear-capable missiles and fewer aircraft capable of delivering a nuclear payload than Pakistan does. India has twice tested a new intermediate-ranged missile, the Agni, which may eventually provide the basis of a nuclear missile force. However, current U.S. analysis suggests the Agni will not be fielded with nuclear warheads for another 10 years. Additionally, India appears to only have begun work on missile warhead design and on the miniaturization of weapons - two critical hurdles to the actual use of weapons.

InsertArt(891823)The U.S. assessment of Pakistan, on the other hand, has been greatly upgraded.

A U.S. official stated that Pakistani air and missile delivery systems are now believed to be “fully capable of a nuclear exchange if something happens.” Other officials noted that Pakistan’s air force, with its U.S. F-16’s and its French Mirage fighter-bombers, are superior at penetrating enemy airspace than India’s Soviet-designed MiGs and Sukhois.

Most importantly, Pakistan is now thought to possess about 30 nuclear-capable missiles: the Chinese M-11 short-range missile and its Pakistani variant, the Tarmuk, as well as the North Korean Nodong intermediate-range missile (known locally as the Ghauri).

HAIR-TRIGGER CONCERN

The mystery that shrouds both of these growing nuclear arsenals has become a major cause for concern among U.S. policymakers, who even before the 1998 tests had deemed South Asia the most likely site of a nuclear war. According to one analysis done by the U.S. Air Force, more than 150 million Indians and Pakistanis could perish in an all-out nuclear exchange - three times the total number of people who died in World War II.

One frequently cited fear among U.S. intelligence officials is an accidental nuclear war in which Pakistan mistakes the firing of an Indian missile bearing a conventional warhead as a nuclear strike.

Despite what appears to be a healthy fear of the other on both sides, the United States still fears there could be a series of crises that lead to something worse. Last year’s Pakistani incursion in the Kargil area of Kashmir, the disputed Muslim territory controlled by India, is a good example of the region’s unpredictability.

InsertArt(891821)“Kargil scared both sides,” Zinni said. “There is usually a gentleman’s agreement to keep conflict around the Line of Control,” he said, referring to the U.N. cease-fire line set after the two nations’ 1947 war over the region. “It escalated with mobilizations on different fronts - tit for tat. Both sides are now very concerned about how escalation works and how it could happen very quickly.”

Zinni said the United States intervened in the “nick of time” with Kargil. The United States doesn’t exert much influence on the daily level of fighting, but a senior military official does believe that Washington has some sway in terms of escalation because neither side really wants an all-out war, despite some hard-liners on both side who publicly claim they want to bring the issue to a head.

NBC News’ Tammy Kupperman is based at the Pentagon. Robert Windrem is an NBC News investigative producer based in New York.

© 2007 MSNBC Interactive

URL: Pakistan nukes outstrip India?s, officials say - - MSNBC.com
© 2007 MSNBC.com

This report is entirely based on US intelligence gathering. Afterall these are the same people who once said Saddam is sitting on a pile of WMD

 

[IAF]

Hence its called a estimate. Its like the US most analyst agree that the United states has 91 to 92 thousand nukes(some analyst believe above and beyond that number) and others say its about 40 thousand. You have to also check how regularly they test the nuclear devices like the US tests its Nukes every year, I believe they last were tested after 2003. Then there is the variable of facilities which I am not going to bother going through dont have time.

The most widely accepted estimates of India's plutonium production have been made by David Albright ([Albright et al 1997], [Albright 2000]). His most recent estimate (October 2000) was that by the end of 1999 India had available between 240 and 395 kg of weapon grade plutonium for weapons production, with a median value of 310 kg. He suggests that this is sufficient for 45 - 95 weapons (median estimate 65). The production of weapon grade plutonium has actually been greater, but about 130 kg of plutonium has been consumed - principally in fueling two plutonium reactors, but also in weapons tests. His estimate for India's holdings of less-than-weapons-grade plutonium (reactor or fuel grade plutonium) are 4200 kg of unsafeguarded plutonium (800 kg of this already separated) and 4100 kg of IAEA safeguarded plutonium (25 kg of this separated). This unsafeguarded quantity could be used to manufacture roughly 1000 nuclear weapons, if India so chose (which would give it the third largest arsenal in the world, behind only the U.S. and Russia).

link : India's Nuclear Weapons Program - Present Capabilities

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Pakistan/PakArsenal.html

---------- Post added at 09:35 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:31 PM ----------

If there is our will to CRUSH you u peoples also have the same will buddy ? Dont you

and we are a poor country our neigbour belongs to the Euorpean standards life style ...

Where hundred thousand peoples sleep on the Roads of Mumbai and Calcuta...

You know better then me how many AIDS paitents are in India. How many Sex Works Working in Banglore and GOWA ...

How many Classifcation is HINDU Brhamans , Shudars and Etc...

At least spend some money on your peoples not on the nukes ...
I think Pakistan need 10 Nukes well enough to Done the JOB of India..
We Didnt need to Stock Pile these ****..

Dont spend on the MRCA spend these 9 Billion Dollar on your PEOPLES

Sorry My Words are Harsh but its reality

first stop begging from USA then speak about India plz

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

The most widely accepted estimates of India's plutonium production have been made by David Albright ([Albright et al 1997], [Albright 2000]). His most recent estimate (October 2000) was that by the end of 1999 India had available between 240 and 395 kg of weapon grade plutonium for weapons production, with a median value of 310 kg. He suggests that this is sufficient for 45 - 95 weapons (median estimate 65). The production of weapon grade plutonium has actually been greater, but about 130 kg of plutonium has been consumed - principally in fueling two plutonium reactors, but also in weapons tests. His estimate for India's holdings of less-than-weapons-grade plutonium (reactor or fuel grade plutonium) are 4200 kg of unsafeguarded plutonium (800 kg of this already separated) and 4100 kg of IAEA safeguarded plutonium (25 kg of this separated). This unsafeguarded quantity could be used to manufacture roughly 1000 nuclear weapons, if India so chose (which would give it the third largest arsenal in the world, behind only the U.S. and Russia).

link : India's Nuclear Weapons Program - Present Capabilities

Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons Program - Present Capabilities

---------- Post added at 09:35 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:31 PM ----------

'Could manufacture' is not the same as 'is manufactured'. I fail to see how your post refutes the contention that Pakistan may possess more nukes than India.

first stop begging from USA then speak about India plz

This is not the first time you have flamed, I have already deleted several of your posts for trolling and flaming.

This sort of inane attitude may be acceptable on certain Indian forums, but not here.

Good bye.

 

[SeaGull]

Saddam was a stupid guy. Lot of ...

Sure Shravan, Saddam was stupid and not only that but 'the father of all stupids' - fighting 'mother of all battles'
He should never have stopped at Kuwait the first time around, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Muscat, you know all of that area, could have been his. He had the capability. And look how he hung after all this.
And u look all pretty too - I mean ur avatar.
That's a compliment - either u or your choice though I know not which.

---------- Post added at 05:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:34 PM ----------

Saddam was a stupid guy. Lot of ...

Sure Shravan, Saddam was stupid and not only that but 'the father of all stupids' - fighting 'mother of all battles'
He should never have stopped at Kuwait the first time around, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Muscat, you know all of that area, could have been his. He had the capability. And look how he hung after all this.
And u look all pretty too - I mean ur avatar.
That's a compliment - either u or your choice though I know not which.

 

[ouiouiouiouiouioui]

well it is a cause of concern for pakistan......b'coz................ i view this report entirely differently.....if this report is true......US is actually trying to sofeten its focus...on India...giving it a freeway...so nobody talks about indian nukes....b'coz they are few in numbers............whereas...now the think tank in US will be focussed on pakistan...as how to gain control...on all these nukes...by publishing such reports...this is an alarming situation....and given that this report is old............by this time...US must have made some planning...of how to get the access...by unstabilizing pakistan....and than showing the world......that the nukes are not safes.......

although this is my analysis

 

[ouiouiouiouiouioui]

well i see people of both sides BOASTING...(mine is bigger than urs)

did anybody anaysed the real threat from this report....common

 

[ouiouiouiouiouioui]

what happened did i said anything wrong....any analysis...

 

[jeet]

India has never boasted about its nukes, on the other hand pakistan uses its nuclear bombs as a bargaining power..
India has 7-8 times more nuclear reactors than pakistan, and even if anyone thinks tat India has less weapon than pakistan then they are fooling themselves.

 

[maverick2009]

I can,t believe people are using statists and estimates from 1999-2003 to argue a case in 2009-2010.

Like 7 years later.

Move on people or your going to get left behind

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

India has never boasted about its nukes, on the other hand pakistan uses its nuclear bombs as a bargaining power..

How does Pakistan 'use its nukes for bargaining power' any more than other countries with nukes?

India has 7-8 times more nuclear reactors than pakistan, and even if anyone thinks tat India has less weapon than pakistan then they are fooling themselves.

Pakistan's nuclear weapons program is primarily uranium based - I don't believe you need spent fuel from nuclear power plants to get the fuel for a uranium based nuclear weapon - what you need is the ability to enrich uranium to the levels required for a nuclear weapon (far greater than that required for a nuclear power plant). The enrichment process is where Iran is struggling currently in its program.

Secondly, even with a Plutonium based weapons program, just because a nation has more reactors does not mean it can use the spent fuel from those reactors for nuclear weapons. For example, KANNUP in Karachi has been operating for years now, but Pakistan cannot use any of the spent Plutonium from KANUP in its weapons program (legally - that is why the expansion of the khushab reactor complex to ostensibly increase Pakistan's Plutonium production capability is so important in terms of modernizing and expanding Pakistan's arsenal) because the plant is under IAEA safeguards.

Any nuclear plants in India under IAEA safeguards would similarly be useless in terms of providing fuel for India's plutonium based weapons program.

 

[third eye]

The thread is too long to read but my reaction to the title is both countries have their nuke programmes for their own interests.

If Pk is ahead, so be it. Both countries are acheving their desired aims.

 

[Thomas]

I think the questions that people are not asking is. How many nukes does it take to win a war between India and Pakistan? 5? 10? 20? 50? how many before the radiation contamination is so bad that the majority of the populations die from radiation sickness? If each side fires 25 nukes each is that enough?