If we look at PN's past ventures, I can assume the project will be much more costlier then original estimates and much more costlier then chinese warships. As far as new SAMs are concerned, we already are getting it through Baburs. However, all relevant individuals make tons of money in such in-house projects.
I think PN will only make 1 Jinnah class frigate saying this because of past track record of PN:-
So we paid 2x the cost for Agosta subs only for ToT and rights to produce & even sell submarines for other countries. We only made 1 sub in Karachi in which French were here to help make it.
Same thing happened with F22P. Despite ToT & urgent need of more warships PN was never able to make more.
However, Jinnah is not just a ToT. Its making the whole design, manufacturing from scratch.
Ship building takes lot of time, lot of funds, approval times etc.. In that whole scenario, the trained staff on manufacturing a certain technology, the ones who get certified, studied advance courses in foreign institutes with nations money already gets retire and moved on. So by time, navy losses its capacity to produce advance ships. Just imagine ToT for agosta subs, ToT for F22Ps, even then PN needed ToT and full cooperation of china for just a 500 ton ship like Azmat FACs.. Still taking ages to deliver the last one. For 2 years unable to arm the OPVs.
PN maybe a great professional fighting force, but its ability to manufacture and absorb the technical details, make it part of their processes and pass it on to next generations is extremely questionable.
However, Jinnah can be successful if PN creates a sustainable eco-system, an environment capable of producing innovations, inclusion of private sector & other depts talent in the eco-system. You really need to gel the commercial talent wherever necessary and above all your existing talent pool must have solid mechanism through which can pass on the knowledge & expertise further on.
BTW, You will build ships whenever you do, atleast build more Naval bases first. Till now most of navy assets are stacked together in karachi. A single point of target for enemy. When we look at PAF, when we look at its airbases, you get the feeling that this force is ready for all eventualities and is prepared to taken on to adversary. This is simply not true for Navy. PN appears to be very easy going and not anticipating worst case scenarios.
Lot of what you say makes sense, because it is based on historical facts.
But, I'm afraid you missed a very important aspect in your evaluation.
Any nations capacity to absorb knowhow and translate it into an industrial capacity depends on different factors, those include,
*The quality of TOT, it is easy to say we have TOT, but what did you actually get, the TOT gets lost in the details.
*Your capacity to absorb that TOT, do you have sufficient manpower, and do they have enough experience and confidence to understand and apply what is being transferred.
* Your domestic industrial strength, are you able to transfer your TOT into a functional element, it is not easy. It sounds good we have TOT, nice press coverage etc, ok, but what now.
* Do you have the financial capacity to implement that TOT into your domestic projects. Ok, you have the manpower and industrial strength but without funds, it means nothing. Any TOT is useful at most for a decade, beyond which the requirements are shifted, and what has been acquired becomes redundant to certain degree.
* Do you have a peaceful environment, where the energies of relevant authorities are directed to relevant areas, or are they too busy fire fighting.
The Pakistan of 2000 or even 2012 was a different creature, with regards to all of the factors mentioned above. Pakistan has changed, just because such efforts delivered limited results previously, does not mean similar efforts won't deliver again.
And please recognise those efforts were not at the same intensity as now, the quality of TOT to which we have access now is far better with much better support, combine that with better domestic capacities and more peaceful environment, where the leadership is hell-bent on geo-economics, these efforts make a lot of sense, and should be commended to the extreme.
