Pakistan's new balance of power

[mujahideen]

Pakistan's new balance of power

By Mark Urban
BBC News, Pakistan

When the two parties that won this week's elections meet to discuss forming a coalition government, they will have to reconcile their different priorities including whether President Pervez Musharraf should remain in office.

The atmosphere in Hanif Abassi's campaign tent in Rawalpindi is ebullient - there are singing beggars, a man with a monkey and some of the city's ladyboys all joining in.

The symbol of this politician's wing of the Muslim League party - a tiger - is everywhere, adorning badges, flags, cars and posters.

When asked what should happen to President Pervez Musharraf, Mr Abassi - the newly elected member for this constituency - replies resolutely, "He should go," and a chant of "Go, Musharraf, go!" quickly erupts from his followers.

For the tiger party's leader - the former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif - the revenge provided by this week's polls has been sweet indeed.

Deciding fate

Mr Sharif was the civilian leader deposed by Gen Musharraf's coup eight-and-a-half years ago.

He was thrown in jail on terrorism charges and then exiled to Saudi Arabia.

I was left in no doubt about... the depth of Nawaz Sharif's antipathy to the man who overthrew and jailed him

Now Mr Sharif is well-placed to decide Mr Musharraf's fate.

It is true that the late Benazir Bhutto's People's Party did better and will form the next government, but they cannot rule on their own.

What is more, it would need a two-thirds majority to impeach the president and that is what Mr Sharif's bloc could bring.

Last week I interviewed Nawaz Sharif, as he raced between rallies in the back of his armoured four-wheel drive.

After we stopped filming, the conversation turned to how Mr Musharraf might deal with a massive vote against his government.

Could he not dissolve the assembly and fall back on the army, I asked?

"Do you really think the army would support him?" Mr Sharif shot back.

"No," I replied, "I think the army probably would not because General Musharraf was once their man, but the new army chief has shown signs of wanting to distance the forces from politics."

And so it went on as we sped through the dark streets of Islamabad.

I will not dwell on detail, because it was one of those conversations that might be termed "privileged". He had finished the on-camera interview and was discussing matters freely, not expecting to be quoted.

When I parted from Mr Sharif later that evening, I was left in no doubt about one thing - the depth of his antipathy to the man who overthrew and jailed him. This is very personal.


Restoration

In his public statements, Mr Sharif has emphasised that the price of his entering into a coalition with the People's Party is that they must accept his plan for a full restoration of the judiciary.

The president swept away the Supreme Court with his emergency measures last November but his battle with the country's lawyers has been fought across many months and issues.

The lawyers issue played very well for Mr Sharif's party on the stump.

Pakistan's educated classes in particular yearn for an independent judiciary.

Demonstrations by the legal profession, clad in their black suits and ties, have become a regular and sometimes violent part of the scene in this country, as they hurl stones or writs with equal dexterity.

People's Party leaders do not seem quite so keen on restoring the judiciary.

Indeed, at a packed press conference in Islamabad on Tuesday, they avoided any solid pledge on the issue.

When asked about it, the late Benazir Bhutto's husband said that his first priority would be the investigation of her murder.

Political manoeuvring

The People's Party also seems a little less ready to drive Mr Musharraf from office, or a little less determined on revenge, in any case.

The issues have both their public dimension - forming a coalition, restoring the judiciary and so on.

And they have their private meaning - how quickly can Mr Musharraf be shunted out of the way, will the army let that happen and who will really lead the coalition, given the immense gap left by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto?

The People's Party leaders must understand that coalition with Mr Sharif will be - to reach for this week's obvious metaphor - like riding a political tiger.

As for Mr Musharraf, he has promised to respect the results of the elections and work with the new government.

But if his behaviour in recent months has been anything to go by, he is a man ready to manoeuvre with dizzying speed as he tries to maintain his hold on power.

In the coming weeks, his people might try all sorts of tactics, from fomenting divisions within the People's Party to exploiting the security situation.

One thing is clear though, from the streets of Nawaz Sharif's native Lahore to the festive, almost carnival atmosphere in his candidate's tent in Rawalpindi - he and his people will be driving the effort to oust Mr Musharraf.

They will attempt to turn this week's events from an unexpectedly representative election into the final rout of the general who seized power back in 1999.

 

[mujahideen]

Pakistan parties agree coalition

Pakistan's two main opposition parties have agreed to form a coalition government after they won the most seats in Monday's general election.
Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said he had agreed "a common agenda" with the party of assassinated opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.

He had been in talks with Ms Bhutto's widower, Asif Zardari, the new leader of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP).

Such a government could put renewed pressure on President Pervez Musharraf.

"We will work together to form the government in the centre and in the provinces," Mr Sharif, head of the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N), said at a joint news conference with Mr Zardari.

He said the two parties had agreed that the country's chief justice, sacked by President Musharraf in November, should be immediately reinstated.

Mr Zardari said there was "a lot of ground to cover" between the two parties, but "in principle, we have agreed to stay together".

Doubts remain about who will emerge as a possible prime minister.

Mr Zardari has ruled himself out for the role, despite his party's success at the election.


He has said his PPP party will choose another candidate to lead a coalition government.
Mr Zardari, a deeply divisive figure in Pakistani politics who has spent several years in prison on corruption charges, is not an MP and is therefore not currently eligible to serve as prime minister.

The party backing President Musharraf, the PML-Q, and its coalition partners have now lost their majority in parliament and Mr Zardari said none of them would be invited into the new governing coalition.

Together, Mr Zardari's and Mr Sharif's parties have more than half of the new parliament's seat. If they can form a grouping with a two-thirds majority, they could call for Mr Musharraf to be impeached.

Mr Sharif has been deeply critical of the president and says he wants "to rid Pakistan of dictatorship forever".

Mr Musharraf has said he will not resign or retire, but instead wishes to work towards stable democratic government in Pakistan.

Mr Musharraf seized power in a military coup in 1999 and was re-elected to the presidency in October in a parliamentary vote boycotted by the opposition as unconstitutional.

BBC NEWS | South Asia | Pakistan parties agree coalition

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

Has somebody ever thought that how important the party symbols were in this election---a tiger and arrow on one side and then an IMPOTENT bicycle on the other side---in a country like pakistan---where symbols hold more sway than anything else---the PML Q started with a big handicap---they should have fought tooth and nail to get a very strong symbol---like a LION or something else---bottomline is that they should have never accepted the bicycle to compete with the arrow or the tiger---that was a big no no.

But then we know very well that we are seeing this day due to the lack of any human common sense on the part of PML Q---how could they have had the common sense to understand such a simple thing.

 

[mujahideen]

Hi,

Has somebody ever thought that how important the party symbols were in this election---a tiger and arrow on one side and then an IMPOTENT bicycle on the other side---in a country like pakistan---where symbols hold more sway than anything else---the PML Q started with a big handicap---they should have fought tooth and nail to get a very strong symbol---like a LION or something else---bottomline is that they should have never accepted the bicycle to compete with the arrow or the tiger---that was a big no no.

But then we know very well that we are seeing this day due to the lack of any human common sense on the part of PML Q---how could they have had the common sense to understand such a simple thing.

Honestly I dont know how much the symbols play a part in our politics but you have made some valid point and honestly if this was the Western world I would agree with your point but I am not so sure if symbols matter in Pakistan. I think the Bicycle was to in a way represent Pakistan's undeveloped status, I guess if we were a developed nation we might of had a motorcycle. Symbols dont matter as much in Pakistan as do the names. For example if you are a Bhutto you are looked upon as the future Prime Minister of Pakistan. This is the mind set we must change. I have said this before and I will say it again we need a new breed of politicians, who are not related to old politicians because these people treat their seat as if it was inherited like their name. This must change.

 

[mujahideen]

Efforts on to form PPPP, PML-Q, MQM coalition

* Shujaat, Elahi, Ebad meet President Musharraf
* Zardari meets US ambassador

By Irfan Ghauri and Muhammad Bilal

ISLAMABAD: Power brokers have stepped up their efforts to prepare a blueprint for a plausible combination of coalition partners to form governments at the federal and provincial levels.

Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and PML-Q Punjab President Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi arrived here on Wednesday and met President Pervez Musharraf to discuss the post-election scenario.

Sindh Governor Dr Ishratul Ebad also came to Islamabad and met with President Musharraf. “The president discussed the political situation with the PML-Q and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) leaders,” a source told Daily Times without disclosing any details.

After these meetings at the President’s Camp Office in Rawalpindi, a close friend of Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) leader Makhdoom Amin Fahim also met Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, a source said, adding that it was part of the efforts to form a coalition government. Efforts were on to remove the differences between the PPPP and the PML-Q, they said. “The first priority of the power-that-be is to work on a coalition involving the PPPP, PML-Q, MQM and the Awami National Party,” the sources said.

Sources said there was little possibility of the PPPP joining hands with the PML-N because of the latter’s clear position on the issue of sacked judges and resignation of President Musharraf. A PPPP source said they might arrive upon a compromise. PML-N Senator Ishaq Dar told Daily Times his party was more interested in fulfilling its promises to its voters rather than forming a coalition government.

The PML-Q president was not forthcoming at this moment, sources said. “Chaudhry Shujaat is following a wait and see policy,” the sources said. Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain has said his party would prefer to sit on the opposition benches, but a final decision would be taken at a meeting of the party’s ticket holders on February 23 in Islamabad.

Zardari meets US ambassador: PPP Co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari also met US ambassador Anne Patterson and discussed with her the post-election scenario. A source said President Musharraf’s close aide Tariq Aziz was also present in the meeting. The PPP spokesman Farhatullah Babar denied a meeting between Zardari and Tariq Aziz, Geo TV said.

Courtesy Daily Times

 

[mujahideen]

Pakistan coalition talks may threaten Musharraf

By Zeeshan Haider

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistan's two main opposition parties will step up efforts on Friday to form a government after their election win, raising the prospect of a coalition that could drive President Pervez Musharraf from power.

"We intend to stay together (to establish a government)," said Asif Ali Zardari, who led the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) to the most seats in Monday's election after his wife, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, was assassinated on Dec. 27.

Musharraf, who seized power in a 1999 military coup in the nuclear-armed nation and has been one of Washington's top Muslim allies against al Qaeda, is vulnerable after his supporters were defeated in the election but has said he is not ready to quit.

His critics say his efforts to cling to power have been a destabilising factor in a country already battling to stop attacks on its territory by al Qaeda and other militants. Neighbours and allies fear Pakistan is becoming more unstable.

U.S. President George W. Bush's administration has urged the next government to work with Musharraf and says Washington needs Pakistan, which borders Afghanistan where U.S. and NATO forces are fighting Islamist militants, as an ally.

On Thursday, Zardari held a first round of talks on forming a coalition government with Nawaz Sharif, leader of the party that came second in the election and the prime minister whom Musharraf overthrew in 1999.

Zardari told a joint news conference in Islamabad afterwards he wanted a broad coalition but one excluding the main party that backs Musharraf.

The PPP leader, who said on Wednesday parliament should decide whether it could work with Musharraf, was due to meet his party's newly elected parliamentarians on Friday.

Since returning from exile in November, a month after Bhutto, Sharif has made clear he would like to oust Musharraf.

"We will work together to form the government," Sharif told the news conference. "There is no issue of disagreement."

Analysts say the centre-left PPP and Sharif's centre-right Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) agree on little ideologically and some doubt they can form a coalition.

If they do team up, Musharraf could either quit or drag Pakistan through more upheaval as parliament tries to remove him on the grounds he violated the constitution in November when he imposed six weeks of emergency rule.

Musharraf outraged many Pakistanis when he declared emergency rule, purged the judiciary, detained activists and gagged the media.

Pakistani shares, buoyed by the largely peaceful conduct of the election, ended at a new closing high of 14,971.94 points on Thursday.

The KSE-100 index has gained 4.3 percent since the election and is the only Asian share market to have gained this year, but dealers have said a government hostile to Musharraf could hurt sentiment.

Pakistan coalition talks may threaten Musharraf | Top News | Reuters

 

[mujahideen]

PML-N wants good 'deal' on ministries

ABRAR SAEED

ISLAMABAD – Pakistan Muslim League(PML-N) Quaid Mian Nawaz Sharif in his one-on-one meeting with Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari extended unconditional support to PPP in formation of the government at centre, sources privy to the meeting disclosed to TheNation.
The sources informed that Mian Nawaz Sharif in his meeting with Asif Ali Zardari said that his party would extend unconditional support to PPP government and would not take any berth in the federal cabinet.
He assured Asif Ali Zardari that in Punjab they would expect the same gesture from Pakistan People’s Party.
The sources disclosed that in return Mian Nawaz Sharif wanted Pakistan People’s Party not to join hands with the coteries of President Musharraf and also not to give any concession to President Musharraf or any of his allies.
They said that certain elements in the ‘Establishment’ had tried to create misunderstanding between the two political parties, which had emerged as the two main parties in the Parliament but the wise and timely move by Mian Nawaz Sharif had apparently neutralised the move.
The sources described that these elements were feeding Asif Ali Zardari to constitute a government in collaboration with Q-League and independents and tried to create misunderstanding between the two main political parties.
They disclosed that Mian Nawaz Sharif got the air of all this and in his meeting with Zardari discussed all these issues threadbare and the irritants between the two sides were thrashed out.
The sources said that it was also agreed between the two that they would restore the deposed judges of apex court not by the executive orders but through the act of Parliament.
The sources in PML-N disclosed that the main issue before their party was not the share in future government but the restoration of judiciary to the pre-November 3 status, removal of the President and restoration of the 1973 Constitution in letter and spirit.

The Nation

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi Mujahideen,

If I could take you to the village, you would get your answer---the poor illeterate people already ride a bicycle---it reminds them of their poverty, their hard life, the problems they have when the tire gets punctured, it has no glory, it has a repetitive motion, it does take you from one place to the other, it does so many things for you, it makes a living for you---but there is nothing fancy in owning a bicycle, it does not make you stand out---it is just there to be used.

Now on the other hand---a tiger is the sign of power, it is the sign of virility, a sign of masculinity, a hunter killer that eats its prey after felling, the lord of the jungle, puts fear in the heart of any opponent, you have to watch your shadow when you walk in the jungle, the fear makes your bowels lose and roar makes your muscles turn to jello.

An arrow---sleek and slender---messenger of silent death, a killer of your known enemy, a warriors weapon of choice, makes your enemy tremble with fear, a sign of strentgh---so my friend what did you say. Undeducated people look at signs and symbols---that is their only source of salvation. So, if you are in an election the next time, don't ever accept a weak symbol---if there is an issue then state that all major parties need to be provided symbols of the same likings and meaning.

The demise of PML Q was pre planned---the only people who didnot see it coming were the PML Q---they had every thing going against them right from the start---there is a saying that 'even the gods were against them' the henchmen of PML Q made sure that it stayed that way.

 

[blain2]

On the lighter side...the new Pakistani balance of power:

All the Chorrs on one side ------- poor old Pakistani nation on the other side.

 

[sparten]

I want to cry! Isloo is filled with Lahoris. Cant they go back sout of the Jehlum where they belong.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Time for Musharraf to go?

I think it might be. What are the options available to everyone here after all? What is best for Pakistan, chor and skimmers aside?

From Musharraf's side - he is not COAS anymore, moves like the one on Nov3 are not possible. If the opposition decides to confront him, he can use his Presidential powers to thwart some moves, but aside from dismissing the assemblies, there isn't much he can do to prevent a possible two thirds majority from restoring the Judges, which in turn will probably end in his presidency being invalidated. If he does dismiss the assemblies, it will be a setback for perceptions about Pakistan, increase the perception about Musharraf being a "dictator" and allow the media and Political Parties to spin it that way and probably get even more seats in a new election.

The other scenario is that a two thirds majority is not conjured by the opposition, and we continue without the judiciary restored for the next five years until Musharrraf leaves office. However, this situation is only good for Pakistan if the new Govt. decides to actually run the country, and fix the problems of the people, rather than conducting "marches on Islamabad" every week and disrupting peoples lives and the country in general since moves like these would continue to add to the sense of instability in the country, and take peoples attention away from the real issues that confront us.

I think the New Government Coalition needs to have the chance to try and use parliament to restore the judiciary. If they succeed - good for them. Its going to happen in another five years anyway. But there should also be an understanding that if they don't, then the matter should be dropped until such time as they can convince Musharraf to pass an executive order to restore them, he finishes his second and last term as President and the new president restores them, or they can win enough support to come up with a two thirds majority. That way the politicians can get around to running the country - but the question is whether they are pragmatic enough and beyond petty politics to take that approach. Continuing to highlight the judiciary issue gives them a pass on actually doing anything constructive, and takes the attention away from their own shortcomings.

Of course how the Swiss case against Zardari plays out is also going to be interesting. I for one hope the Swiss decide to prosecute, Zardari tries to bail on the alliance with the PML-N to save his own skin, and the PPP ditches him for doing so. Then we'll have at least one thug out of the picture, even if Musharraf also has to go.

Another situaion - the Swiss decide to prosecute, Zardari agrees to coalition with Pro-Musharraf parties, and the bankrupt PPP leadership goes along, and Nawaz is left fuming.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

I want to cry! Isloo is filled with Lahoris. Cant they go back sout of the Jehlum where they belong.

Why? Are they "marching for the judiciary" or something?

My brother in law is posted there, so unfortunately you will have to "live with those Lahoris for a while"

 

[roadrunner]

Time for Musharraf to go?

I think it might be. What are the options available to everyone here after all? What is best for Pakistan, chor and skimmers aside?

From Musharraf's side - he is not COAS anymore, moves like the one on Nov3 are not possible. If the opposition decides to confront him, he can use his Presidential powers to thwart some moves, but aside from dismissing the assemblies, there isn't much he can do to prevent a possible two thirds majority from restoring the Judges, which in turn will probably end in his presidency being invalidated. If he does dismiss the assemblies, it will be a setback for perceptions about Pakistan, increase the perception about Musharraf being a "dictator" and allow the media and Political Parties to spin it that way and probably get even more seats in a new election.

The other scenario is that a two thirds majority is not conjured by the opposition, and we continue without the judiciary restored for the next five years until Musharrraf leaves office. However, this situation is only good for Pakistan if the new Govt. decides to actually run the country, and fix the problems of the people, rather than conducting "marches on Islamabad" every week and disrupting peoples lives and the country in general since moves like these would continue to add to the sense of instability in the country, and take peoples attention away from the real issues that confront us.

I think the New Government Coalition needs to have the chance to try and use parliament to restore the judiciary. If they succeed - good for them. Its going to happen in another five years anyway. But there should also be an understanding that if they don't, then the matter should be dropped until such time as they can convince Musharraf to pass an executive order to restore them, he finishes his second and last term as President and the new president restores them, or they can win enough support to come up with a two thirds majority. That way the politicians can get around to running the country - but the question is whether they are pragmatic enough and beyond petty politics to take that approach. Continuing to highlight the judiciary issue gives them a pass on actually doing anything constructive, and takes the attention away from their own shortcomings.

Of course how the Swiss case against Zardari plays out is also going to be interesting. I for one hope the Swiss decide to prosecute, Zardari tries to bail on the alliance with the PML-N to save his own skin, and the PPP ditches him for doing so. Then we'll have at least one thug out of the picture, even if Musharraf also has to go.

Another situaion - the Swiss decide to prosecute, Zardari agrees to coalition with Pro-Musharraf parties, and the bankrupt PPP leadership goes along, and Nawaz is left fuming.

Musharraf is a reformer. He's good for Pakistan. However, human nature is such as to not trust reformers who threaten the old culture. I hope he stays on, but Pakistani people (or at least the majority) do not deserve him to stay on.

 

[Spring Onion]

Musharraf is a reformer. He's good for Pakistan. However, human nature is such as to not trust reformers who threaten the old culture. I hope he stays on, but Pakistani people (or at least the majority) do not deserve him to stay on.

RR though i want him to stay but at the same time i dont want him to get the blam anymore for all the things that even were not under his domain.

Let the thugs elected by the people to ditch them and let them see the real faces of these so-called democratic forces.

Let them see these Zardari and Nawaz Sharif stand exposed specially on issue of WoT.

Nawaz Sharif during all his election drives promised to get the US out and halting operations in different areas.

Now see what they will do.

 

[roadrunner]

RR though i want him to stay but at the same time i dont want him to get the blam anymore for all the things that even were not under his domain.

Let the thugs elected by the people to ditch them and let them see the real faces of these so-called democratic forces.

Let them see these Zardari and Nawaz Sharif stand exposed specially on issue of WoT.

Nawaz Sharif during all his election drives promised to get the US out and halting operations in different areas.

Now see what they will do.

I actually agree with this now that you mention it. I hope he quits to and gives Zardari and Nawaz Sharif a free reign to mess Pakistan up again. It should at least show who the good and the bad are (as if this isn't obvious already).

On the other hand, someone is needed to get Pakistan out of this mess and continue the strong growth so that in the end Pakistanis will be educated enough to elect good leaderships. Musharraf must not get caught out here. If he thinks Zardari and Sharif will use him as a scapegoat for the problems they make, he should quit. If he can make sure he's not scapegoated, then it's best he stays on. But i feel as though they'll try and scapegoat him also.