And more on the topic.. Here's another one of your castles in the air
KARACHI STOCK EXCHANGE CONCLUDED FINANCIAL YEAR TO JUNE 30 DOES NOT BRING SO MUCH FOR THE INVESTORS AND BROKERS,
Karachi Stock Exchange concluded financial year to June 30 does not bring so much for the investors and brokers,
11/07/07 THE healthy gain of 28 per cent in the index values at the Karachi Stock Exchange in the just concluded financial year to June 30
does not bring so much of joy for the investors and brokers, as they lament over the fall of volume to nine-year low. Average daily value in the cash and futures market stood at Rs4.4 billion in FY11, which represented a sharp plunge of 40 per cent over the previous year. Such insignificant business was last seen in FY02. But nine years ago, it was altogether a different world. The 9/11 events had created ripples in global capital markets and the size of Pakistani bourse at that time was only Rs358 billion, one-eight of the current capitalisation at Rs3 trillion. So does volume matter?
“Low volume is a serious matter”, says Nadeem Naqvi, Managing Director at the KSE.
He said it defeated the purpose of providing growth capital for companies looking for liquidity. And the KSE MD listed a couple of reasons for the trivial turnover: Overall economic downturn had reduced savings of the middle income group that traditionally traded in shares; the overall weakness in the macro economic policy where government borrowings had crowded out the private sector, resulting in high interest rates. Finally, said, Mr Nadeem, the year witnessed huge transfer of money in the form of high commodity prices and government support to the undocumented rural sector that has displayed no interest in equity trading yet.
Liquidity is provided by day-traders”, said Arif Habib, former chairman KSE. And day traders, many thought, had turned their backs on the stock market following the crash of 2008. “Investors lost billions of rupees in that fateful year, but all of that passed off without a serious inquiry,”says Itrat Rizvi, a known market expert. He contended “ low volume tells us that the conviction of public to own stocks is lacking”. Says the KSE MD: “While many investors have genuine reasons to be disillusioned, the new management of the bourse is taking measures to settle old outstanding claims arising from the 2008 meltdown”. To restore investor confidence, the bourse is also planning to work with the National Clearing Company of Pakistan and the Central Depository Company, to devise measures by which investor interest is protected and broker control is minimised, said Mr Nadeem.
Khalid Mirza, who previously headed the SECP and latter the CCP, tells his students at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, where he is now a visiting professor, that the Pakistani capital market is highly undervalued compared to other markets in Asia. Mr. Arif Habib, also bullish on the Pakistan market, says that it holds enormous growth potential, which is scarcely reflected in the market performance during the year, in spite of strong corporate earnings growth. He marks oil and gas, fertilisers, large banks and textile and polyester sectors as having reaped bumper profits. According to Syed Atif Zafar, analyst at brokerage JS Global, the local bourse outperformed the regional markets by seven per cent during the outgoing year while underperforming the global commodities by four per cent.
The KSE MD endorsed investors’ complaint of lack of concern by the concerned quarters in easing the cumbersome calculation of Capital Gains tax, especially for individuals. Retail investors also thought it prudent to stay out of the market for fear of harassment by tax men. Many thought low turnover was to be blamed for low liquidity and lack of price discovery. At a time earlier this year, almost the entire market thought the introduction of the new leverage product — the Margin Trading System (MTS) — would be the saviour that would pull investors to the market in droves. That was not to be. It is thus that many still crave for the old flame, “badla”, the age-old leverage that came to be both loved and hated. “The market would take time to be familiar with the CFS”, says Mirza and he adds that he has no problem with the reformed shape of ‘badla’. “Devoid of the systemic risk, ‘badla’ was a perfectly proper leverage product for the market”. Another major concern for the market, to which all experts referred in various ways was its inability to attract new listings. “Mobilising cheaper funds for investment by industrial undertakings is a principal purpose of the stock market,” they say.
However, only three companies entered the capital market throughout the year, compared to an average of seven Initial Public Offerings in the last decade. The aggregate number of quoted companies at present stand at 639, which forms just one per cent of more than 60,000 registered companies.
With hundreds of illiquid entities listed mainly on the textile sector, the market capitalisation at Rs3 trillion— three times the listed capital of Rs944 billion — provides a distorted picture of the market depth. “Such companies owned wholly by handful of sponsors have no business to remain listed,” says Khalid Mirza. He blames inadequacy of ‘Take-over Law” for the continuing trend.
During the year, Pakistan equity market remained on the overseas portfolio investors’ radar but their net buying spiralled downwards by 82 per cent to $312 million, from $567 million the year earlier. Offshore investors, who held equity worth $2.3billion (29.5 per cent of market’s free float) at the start of FY11, are now estimated to command shares of the value of $2.7billion (32.3 per cent of the KSE’s free float). And what about the return on equities? Mohammad Sohail, CEO at Topline Securities, pointed out that the
stock price of consumer giant ‘Nestle Pakistan’ had climbed by 228 per cent during the year, which made it the second largest share in KSE-100 basket. The stock is owned by only 760 investors, but it has contributed as much as 26 per cent to the index gain.
Excluding Nestle the Index rose 21 per cent, said Sohail, who argues: “This should be considered as normal return which is in line with last 20-year average annual return of 20 per cent from Pakistan equities.” He said that in light of the fact that average one-year T-Bill generated 13.8 per cent in FY11, the return of 21 per cent from stocks was not very impressive given the market and company risks along with issues related to the filing of returns on new tax. The Topline CEO concluded: “
All of that brings to fore the fact that KSE index movement is not necessarily reflective of market performance and those who trade watching the index movements alone, are likely to be misled and come to grief