Pakistan's immediate balance of payment crisis is over

[bafxet]

Is he trying to pacify the markets?

 

[VCheng]

Is he trying to pacify the markets?

It will take more than the good old "Crisis? What crisis? And if there was a crisis, it is over!" approach to deliver actual results.

 

[A.A. Khan]

@Pakistansdefender Who are you?? Economist, youthia, Asad Umar himself.....

First research how much they are asking.


Then research what IMF loan does to Pakistan every time.
You are right this govt.needs IMF for 'good standing' to crush the middle class beneath them.

IMF loan is an easy option compard to restructuring and doing reforms to tame and clear the dead wood in the bureaucracy.
If you are saying good standing to beg more loans from Paris Club than that is a thing of the past. Multilateral organizations like World Bank refused to fund not one but all mega projects Pakistan proposed e.g.DiamerBhasha Dam. After which they requested China for help.

IMF is more desperate to install the director here to screw us all.

Funny part is everytime they come they give excuse to their pimps selling the IMF package, they bark structural reforms bty the end it really comes up as a socio-economic agenda imposition to target and weaken Pakistani society and norms. The bureaucratic mafia gets away with it with more corruption.


Check how you'll stand good after Rupee touches 150 and inflation doubles spiking food prices, with more corrupt and shady dealings in the govt. structure.

 

[nahtanbob]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1059819305032970240

@Indus Pakistan

it has not been resolved. it has been kicked down a year or two
high energy prices will ensure pakistan has balance of payments
issues for years to come

there is nothing your esteemed prime minister can do about it in
the short run

 

[ziaulislam]

Please read the OP tweet again. And if the immediate crisi is "over" the real crisis is yet to come.




What you describe is temporary relief at best, and kicking the proverbial can down the road at worst, to come back to haunt the nation in the future.

i didnt know you were also like mastan who twists tongue in nice english and desnt even bother lookig at facts...i am feeling sorry that i did waste my time..noted..

 

[Abdussamad]

Umar is about as credible as Maduro now

 

[ziaulislam]

it has not been resolved. it has been kicked down a year or two
high energy prices will ensure pakistan has balance of payments
issues for years to come

there is nothing your esteemed prime minister can do about it in
the short run

oil is already at all time high, its not going to go higher, infact last couple of weeks its going down..mid terms will dictate where it goes esoe if Democrats win.

pakistan oil imports dropped by 33% in wake of coal and gas conversitions in last 3-4 months and is expected to drop further

Now if same policies of artificial dollar rate, large fiscal deficit and low exports are kept ..yeah than any economy can see balance of payment issues including well matured economices like turkey..imagine had india not taken corrective measures last year..it would have also seen balance of payment crisis due to its large CAD

Umar is about as credible as Maduro now

Earth is flat..what proof do i have..take my word for it ..

 

[jamal18]

How can the crisis be declared resolved when all the underlying factors that created it still remain in play? A temporary relief is never a resolution.

That's the mentality that creates a recurring problem.

13 times to the IMF?

 

[ziaulislam]

Take loan from IMF without them.dictating the reforms..you should dictate the reforms...
Key word is reform

1. Ensure transparency in state bank..meaning independent state bank..this is THE MOST important step(monetary policy, interest rate and market based rupee valuation)
2. Ensure fiscal deficit doesnt cross 5% prefer at 4%
3. Stream line exports and remittances

4. To achieve no.2 ensure to end all lose making entites
5. To ensure no.3 banking refroms and energy crisis solution

 

[VCheng]

That's the mentality that creates a recurring problem.

13 times to the IMF?

As I said above, the good old "Crisis? What crisis? And if there was a crisis, it is over!" approach does not really solve anything when the foundations remain adverse.

Take loan from IMF without them.dictating the reforms..you should dictate the reforms...

In simple English, beggars cannot be choosers.

 

[ziaulislam]

One thing we forget ..any country will end up with IMF no matter how rich and stable she is , if it does what previous govt did..you cant simply print money or artificially keep the rupee high ..hence the issue will not be solved untill and unless mechanism is made to make state bank independent ...we should look over our shoulder to india and learn this

As I said above, the good old "Crisis? What crisis? And if there was a crisis, it is over!" approach does not really solve anything when the foundations remain adverse.




In simple English, beggars cannot be choosers.

They can..romeo and Juliet

 

[VCheng]

They can..romeo and Juliet

Please explain for my benefit as to how a borrower can determine the terms according to which the IMF will agree to lend several billion dollars to it for the 13th time? As before, IMF will appoint an office to oversee the terms of the bailout package that it, and it alone determines.

 

[jamal18]

1. Conscript army, not proffesional. Hardly any country can afford a proffesional army, let alone Pakistan.

2. End to 'free trade' with any country, let alone China. Pakistani industry cannot compete. Need protection to ensure the build up of Pakistani industry. Pakistani demand met by Pakistani products.

3. The eventual ownership of all firms by Pakistani stakeholders. So profits aren't sent back to the owner country.

Steps 2 and 3 ensure a build up of foreign currency.

 

[ziaulislam]

Please explain for my benefit as to how a borrower can determine the terms according to which the IMF will agree to lend several billion dollars to it for the 13th time? As before, IMF will appoint an office to oversee the terms of the bailout package that it, and it alone determines.

Because IMF is not a loan shark but whose is job is stabilize a country and avoid default..the fundamentals are not horrible in case of Pakistan for IMF to behave as loan shark..the additional package is probably going to be less than 4-5 b dollars....we are not asking for 60-80b pacakge neither are we in irreversible debt situation ..the whole mess is always due to last year election politics and interference with state bank by ruling party ..

IMF core demands are already met and are inline with current finance minister strategy ..he always advocate for independence of statebank and currency valuation just this one step can solve the crisis....

1. Conscript army, not proffesional. Hardly any country can afford a proffesional army, let alone Pakistan.

2. End to 'free trade' with any country, let alone China. Pakistani industry cannot compete. Need protection to ensure the build up of Pakistani industry. Pakistani demand met by Pakistani products.

3. The eventual ownership of all firms by Pakistani stakeholders. So profits aren't sent back to the owner country.

Steps 2 and 3 ensure a build up of foreign currency.

Show me onw country that has developed via protecting its industry

These solutions have been tried by china and India till 1990s ..look what happened Pakistan was richer per capital till than

Solution is to listen to what your industry says..education ..tranaprency ..independence and ease of doing business

 

[jamal18]

Show me onw country that has developed via protecting its industry

Japan, Korea Britain.......

Some of these by barriers, like early Britain. With Japan and Korea it was by barriers and other ways. For example Korea had so many adminitrative demands for, say car imports, that it was difficult to fulfill them. In Japan there was a culture of shaming people who bought foreign cars etc. Imports to these countries were very limited.

I believe all developed countries had strict import control in their early stages.