Pakistan’s growth rate goes down to 3.9% this year, says ADB

[bafxet]

Bus itni si baat ke liye kya tension le rakhi hai

You may be rich man drawing a handsome salary but not everyone in this country is as fortunate as you are. Think of them.....

And it doesn't finish here. Consider the population growth, very year about 2.5 millions enter job market if your economy instead of growing contracts than where they will get employment from. The non employed youth will get into crimes and looting.

 

[VCheng]

Too bad no one consider increase in import/exports by local currency. Dil ko behlaney wala stat hai

Anything that can be used as good news is welcome!

 

[AZ1]

You may be rich man drawing a handsome salary but not everyone in this country is as fortunate as you are. Think of them.....

And it doesn't finish here. Consider the population growth, very year about 2.5 millions enter job market if your economy instead of growing contracts than where they will get employment from. The non employed youth will get into crimes and looting.

Start driving careem and charge as per increasing price. Even if you have bike you can earn by becoming rider.

 

[Imran Khan]

You may be rich man drawing a handsome salary but not everyone in this country is as fortunate as you are. Think of them.....

And it doesn't finish here. Consider the population growth, very year about 2.5 millions enter job market if your economy instead of growing contracts than where they will get employment from. The non employed youth will get into crimes and looting.

life is very short man lets make it joy ful any how we have to die sooner or letter . why so much worry ?

 

[CrazyZ]

The agricultural growth rate is a forecast....it may not be this low. There was record snowfall in northern Pakistan this winter....how does adb predict water shortages. Adb has underforecasted Pakistan's growth in the recent past. The whole world is being forecast lower due to slowdown in Europe and the china usa trade war.

 

[Aryan0395]

and its the fault of the previous 70 years of bad governance

Yeh wala hamare yaha bhi chalta hai....
(we have made improvements, but a lot more is to be done)

 

[Jf Thunder]

Yeh wala hamare yaha bhi chalta hai....
(we have made improvements, but a lot more is to be done)

I would laugh react to this

 

[Tom M]

How this will effect my life ?

TBH, it won't hurt much until we land up in hospital for few days. It's from personal experience.

 

[Turingsage]

Rupee hits historic low, crosses 141 against dollar

lowest in 71 years
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1942494/2-rupee-hits-historic-low-crosses-141-dollar/

 

[Longhorn]

Rupee has depreciated
Exports growth down from 12 % to 2%
FBR revenue growth down from ~19% to 2%
Fiscal deficit has increased by 400 billion Rs
Inflation 64 month high at ~ 9% (soon to hit double digits)
Foreign Direct Investment has slowed down


But our PM is handsome and we will jail former PM for corruption of few billion Rs so all is well

The economy is being restructured.
Short term pain, long term gain.

 

[Imran Khan]

TBH, it won't hurt much until we land up in hospital for few days. It's from personal experience.

Bhai hum ne to hamesha economy ko bemaar dekha hai hahahah

 

[Turingsage]

The economy is being restructured.
Short term pain, long term gain.

Unfortunately this is bullcrap. There is no restructuring going on nor is any in the pipework. The fringes of the economy are being rearranged like the furniture on the titanic, in conjunction with propagating totally fake and fabulous fiction of recovering hundreds of billions of Dollahs stolen by everyone who opposes PTI, and the discovery of vast fantastic immeasurable reserves of oil and gas and gold and copper all waiting in the ground to be extracted.
Those of us who are ageing have heard the same heady concoction fed to the populace in the 70's 80's and 90's. In fact Pakistan's ministers claimed to have oil reserves greater than Iran and Saudi put together. They used to moan that the Iranian oil was actually Pakistani oil being sucked away from Pakistan by the wily Iranians.
Pakistani politicians have always promised a miracle and wonderful news just round the corner.
They all believe in sudden miracles.
Restructuring is just too difficult so they promise it but never deliver , see the 13 IMF bailouts where they promised restructuring but always failed to follow through.
Today another fantasy is being sold, its called CPEC, Gwadar the new Dubai. I mean this fishing port with not enough drinking water for a populace of a few thousand, totally empty roads and one or two small cargo ships paying rare visits is touted as a hub of Asian trade. Its no such thing. Its a Chinese navel base that Pakistan paid for with expensive Chinese loans and the Pakistani Fauj guards it with Pakistani money.
Those friends are laughing all the way to the bank.

 

[CrazyZ]

Unfortunately this is bullcrap. There is no restructuring going on nor is any in the pipework. The fringes of the economy are being rearranged like the furniture on the titanic, in conjunction with propagating totally fake and fabulous fiction of recovering hundreds of billions of Dollahs stolen by everyone who opposes PTI, and the discovery of vast fantastic immeasurable reserves of oil and gas and gold and copper all waiting in the ground to be extracted.
Those of us who are ageing have heard the same heady concoction fed to the populace in the 70's 80's and 90's. In fact Pakistan's ministers claimed to have oil reserves greater than Iran and Saudi put together. They used to moan that the Iranian oil was actually Pakistani oil being sucked away from Pakistan by the wily Iranians.
Pakistani politicians have always promised a miracle and wonderful news just round the corner.
They all believe in sudden miracles.
Restructuring is just too difficult so they promise it but never deliver , see the 13 IMF bailouts where they promised restructuring but always failed to follow through.
Today another fantasy is being sold, its called CPEC, Gwadar the new Dubai. I mean this fishing port with not enough drinking water for a populace of a few thousand, totally empty roads and one or two small cargo ships paying rare visits is touted as a hub of Asian trade. Its no such thing. Its a Chinese navel base that Pakistan paid for with expensive Chinese loans and the Pakistani Fauj guards it with Pakistani money.
Those friends are laughing all the way to the bank.

Wow. A lot of negativity. 4% growth rate is not the titanic. I have been stating for a while that key economic decision should be removed from the political establishment. Ppp pml PTI all have issues in this regard. A council of experts thats part of the national security council should make these decisions to ensure no band aids are applied for political expedience and major reforms are enacted.

 

[ziaulislam]

Pakistan’s growth rate goes down to 3.9% this year, says ADB
Shakoor Nizamani On Apr 3, 2019

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economic growth rate to go down to 3.9% in fiscal year 2019, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in a forecast on the country’s economy.

The ADB in its publication titled “Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2019,” said Pakistan’s GDP growth to drop to 3.9% in FY2019 as “macroeconomic challenges will continue despite steps to tighten fiscal and monetary policies.”

“The expansionary fiscal policy markedly widened the budget and current account deficits and drained foreign exchange,” the report observed.

The ADB report said inflation is expected to rise sharply to average 7.5% in FY2019, driven up by continued heavy government borrowing from the central bank, hikes to domestic gas and electricity tariffs, further increases in regulatory duties on luxury imports, and the lagged impact of currency depreciation by more than 10.7% since July 2018.

The water shortage would have an impact on the agriculture sector, which will fail to achieve its growth target, the bank’s report said.

The ADB report forecast further hike in inflation by the end of the fiscal year.

The report has predicted decrease in the current account deficit but said it will remain on the higher side.

The country would have to borrow more to payback the external debt, the report further said.

Inflation will remain elevated at 7.0% in FY2020, it added.

“Fixed investment in FY2018 reflected higher public investment in infrastructure and energy, especially under the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, including electric power projects,” ADB said.

“Net exports weighed on growth as imports grew considerably faster than exports to meet rising demand for oil and capital products, notably to support infrastructure projects.”

“Remittances are expected to revive—having already risen by 10% in the first 7 months of FY2019 over the same period of FY2018—as the Pakistan rupee depreciate further, economic activity in the Middle-eastern oil exporting countries (major destination of Pakistani migrants) holds broadly steady, and the government takes measures to facilitate remittances through official channels,” the bank report said.
https://arynews.tv/en/pakistans-growth-rate-goes-down-to-3-9-this-year-says-adb/

4% growth will mean thag adjusted for fiscal deficit Pakistan will grow as fast as last year.
Seems very difficult that we will achieve 4%.. But if we do i will give govt 10/10 provided fiscal deficit meets the target 5% or remains 5.0-5.5%

Under drastic import compression and fiscal adjustment of overseas 400 billion this is good target
Hopefully next year govt can target 5%.

Key will be fiscal consolidation can govt consolidate to 4.5%..govt will need massive revenues (at least 300-400b) without hurting industry or causing too much inflation

I was critic of asad umar about IMF delay but seems he was right about fiscal consolidation being a secondary objective and CAD being his first objective ..i never thought import compression will hurt revenues so bad but than again 40% of our revenues are from imports

Had govt vomitted to IMF fiscal consolidation we would have seen growth drop to less than 2% as it happened in 1999 after similar bankruptcy by PMLN govt

Apparently Pakistani liked to be screwed by nawaz sharif family

 

[Tiger Awan]

4% growth will mean thag adjusted for fiscal deficit Pakistan will grow as fast as last year.
Seems very difficult that we will achieve 4%.. But if we do i will give govt 10/10 provided fiscal deficit meets the target 5% or remains 5.0-5.5%

Under drastic import compression and fiscal adjustment of overseas 400 billion this is good target
Hopefully next year govt can target 5%.

Key will be fiscal consolidation can govt consolidate to 4.5%..govt will need massive revenues (at least 300-400b) without hurting industry or causing too much inflation

I was critic of asad umar about IMF delay but seems he was right about fiscal consolidation being a secondary objective and CAD being his first objective ..i never thought import compression will hurt revenues so bad but than again 40% of our revenues are from imports

Had govt vomitted to IMF fiscal consolidation we would have seen growth drop to less than 2% as it happened in 1999 after similar bankruptcy by PMLN govt

Apparently Pakistani liked to be screwed by nawaz sharif family

For the first 9 months we have missed revenue collections by 300-400 billions and now the projected fiscal deficit is 7.5%