Pakistan’s Geoeconomic Delusions

[SQ8]

I would agree, except that I would regard what you describe as an intended design feature, and not a problem.

Design feature for the primary beneficiary- problem for the other 220 million except 219.8 dont realize it.

 

[VCheng]

Design feature for the primary beneficiary- problem for the other 220 million except 219.8 dont realize it.

That is a fair comment, but then again, a problem that is not realized as a problem, is not really a problem, is it?

 

[SQ8]

That is a fair comment, but then again, a problem that is not realized as a problem, is not really a problem, is it?

Ignorance is bliss

 

[VCheng]

Ignorance is bliss

And that is probably why Pakistanis tend to do well on International Happiness Surveys.

 

[Robbie]

Even with forex it won't happen. I don't think you guys understand what has happened in Pakistan. Brutal fact is Pakistan does NOT have any industry in the real sense. This is how Pakistan survives.

• farmers work their backsides to provide most of the food that feeds the country earning just enough to survive because of low productivity/quality
• poor workers go abroad and they bring dollars via remittances
• loans are taken from IMF etc for dollars. Grants from geo-strategic deals end up in military subsidies that pays for shiny toys.

This is Pakistan economic formula. Countries idles away living off remitance dollars and food grown by poor farmers. End off.

If I may posit what I believe. Feel free to correct me if you think its wrong.

The meta point that comes out of all this is 'purpose'. Pakistanis to a large extent believe their purpose is to be an 'Islam ka Qila', live their lives for the glory of Islam and defeat a Hindu India. The Pakistani state is a reflection of that desire. The secondary or good to have benefit is making the lives of Pakistanis better. There is a reason why Pakistan is a security state. It is an outward-looking state with its primary goals being religious and/or territorial.

To further elaborate my point - even when you talk with Pakistanis on this forum, they express their nation's purpose as checkmating and ultimately defeating India. This is reflected in statements like 'if we all die by MAD, Muslims will continue to live in other countries but Hindus will not'. The Pakistanis do not express their nation's purpose as uplifting them. Contrast this with Indians and Bangladeshis where the general purpose of our state is usually considered to be to take care of the people, not achieve territorial or religious goals. The secondary or an optional aim of Pakistanis is to get rich/improve lives. Therefore it is a 'good to have', not a 'must have'. A point to note - since all three countries have extremely large populations, you will find significant exceptions to the above but they are not the norm and the State's priorities are reflections of that.

So unless, in the minds of the people, the purpose of the Pakistani state changes from the glory of Islam to a more inward-focused, improving the lives of the people idea, it will be difficult to make Pakistan the next hong kong/Dubai or for that matter even an upper-middle-income country.

To be sure and clear, I don't mean that any of the factors I've written about above are a bad thing. Pakistanis have a purpose and they are achieving it beautifully. Pakistan punches way above its country size and economic weight and consistently checkmates India, a country that is far larger in geography, population and economics.

It is a credit to Pakistan and Pakistanis to be able to achieve that, consistently over decades. So in that sense, Pakistan hits a near-perfect score on the primary metric that it holds itself accountable on.

@VCheng, @Baibars_1260 . Would appreciate your input on the hypothesis as well.

 

[VCheng]

Pakistanis to a large extent believe their purpose is to be an 'Islam ka Qila', live their lives for the glory of Islam and defeat a Hindu India. The Pakistani state is a reflection of that desire. The secondary or good to have benefit is making the lives of Pakistanis better. There is a reason why Pakistan is a security state. It is an outward-looking state with its primary goals being religious and/or territorial.

Correction: This what they are TOLD is their purpose. Whether they beleive it or not is another matter.

The Pakistanis do not express their nation's purpose as uplifting them.

Yes, they do, by migrating and doing extremely well.

Pakistanis have a purpose and they are achieving it beautifully.

That is true, both inside and outside the country.

So unless, in the minds of the people, the purpose of the Pakistani state changes from the glory of Islam to a more inward-focused, improving the lives of the people idea, it will be difficult to make Pakistan the next hong kong/Dubai or for that matter even an upper-middle-income country.

That cannot be allowed to happen, as it would upset the status quo.

 

[Indos]

If I may posit what I believe. Feel free to correct me if you think its wrong.

The meta point that comes out of all this is 'purpose'. Pakistanis to a large extent believe their purpose is to be an 'Islam ka Qila', live their lives for the glory of Islam and defeat a Hindu India. The Pakistani state is a reflection of that desire. The secondary or good to have benefit is making the lives of Pakistanis better. There is a reason why Pakistan is a security state. It is an outward-looking state with its primary goals being religious and/or territorial.

To further elaborate my point - even when you talk with Pakistanis on this forum, they express their nation's purpose as checkmating and ultimately defeating India. This is reflected in statements like 'if we all die by MAD, Muslims will continue to live in other countries but Hindus will not'. The Pakistanis do not express their nation's purpose as uplifting them. Contrast this with Indians and Bangladeshis where the general purpose of our state is usually considered to be to take care of the people, not achieve territorial or religious goals. Since all three countries have extremely large populations, you will find significant exceptions to the above but they are not the norm and the State's priorities are reflections of that. The secondary or an optional aim of Pakistanis is to get rich/improve lives. Therefore it is a 'good to have', not a 'must have'.

So unless, in the minds of the people, the purpose of the Pakistani state changes from the glory of Islam to a more inward-focused, improving the lives of the people idea, it will be difficult to make Pakistan the next hong kong/Dubai or for that matter even an upper-middle-income country.

To be sure and clear, I don't mean that any of the factors I've written about above are a bad thing. Pakistanis have a purpose and they are achieving it beautifully. Pakistan punches way above its country size and economic weight and consistently checkmate's India. It is a credit to Pakistan and Pakistanis to be able to achieve that.

@VCheng, @Baibars_1260 . Would appreciate your input on the hypothesis as well.

Have you seen the main problem that is raised by Pakistani here which is corruption ??? That is against Islam. Being religious doesnt mean looking backward. The real religious people will have clean government, institution, and will make just assessment over who should get promoted and put people in knowledge and capable as leader of any institution just like what prophet Muhammad told us.

We can have business and study hard with Jihad as motivation. This is the highest motivation people ever have, and if Muslim act based on what Quran and Hadith tell them to do, they will become prosperous and it is a promise of God. Even the non- Muslim countries like Singapore can be success because they have the least corrupt government and institution

 

[Patriot forever]

In my opinion, consider CPEC as an opportunity, our geo strategic ally extending us financial support and investment to transform our economy. The actual question one should be asking is what have we done with CPEC , is the problem actually CPEC or our abuse and incompetence? Was it made a tool for political gains and corruption instead of betterment of our economy? This is the dilemma we are facing.


To answer this question, we need to divide CPEC into 2 components. On one aspect is Gawadar port, the associated communication infrastructure development such as western eastern transport corridors, fiber optic network etc. This is a gem of a component and is mainly funded by concession chinese state funding. Financially this is the smaller component of CPEC and represents the debt part of CPEC. This is by far the most beneficial thing to happen to Pakistan in a long long time. The debt is manageable and affordable and offers great benefits to Pakistan.

The other aspect is power projects, the CPEC IPP's which fall under the category of private investments which are given state backed guaranteed by Pakistan. Like most big corporations they are primarily driven by profits, would bribe, take advantage of loopholes in law to maximize their return. This is where we messed up CPEC. To add to this segment projects such as Lahore metro are also on commercial loans. Chinese counterparts were skeptical about financial viability of a lot of these projects.

Now the question, is the state of China or CPEC framework is responsible for it? Were Pakistani authorities so incompetent or corrupt to not be able negotiate with international companies on its own? Was greed, lack of foresight, planning and political benefits was the reason that compromised CPEC? It's like complaining to Turkey for our own corruption and incompetence in Karkey case ( share a lot of similarities in negotiation of contracts).
Establishing solar power plants in areas with not optimal conditions while ignoring the most optimal areas in Sindh? Political motives.
Establishing imported coal power plants in Punjab in the process compromising fertile agricultural land as opposed to coastal areas? Transportation cost of coal from port to Punjab alone raises the tariff of an already ill negotiated contract? Political reasons?

Incompetence of completely ignoring transmission capacity (Lahore Mitiari Line a project envisioned in 2013 and a core project of CPEC was delayed, only in this government it was started on a priority basis on BOT model and is now complete and in testing phase). On the other hand rapidly increasing costly installed capacity which defied logic as by no model had our energy consumption risen that dramatically.
Just look at the electricity consumption growth data from Plmn years (it no where correlates with the rate of increased capacity). Assuming that on a consumption driven gdp growth model is hilarious in it self.


Some people bring the fact that our economic rating was poor hence the bad deals. If we take that who is responsible for poor macro's ? It was the doing of government at that time.



Now coming to the conclusion why have the manufacturing not coming to Pakistan as was expected from CPEC? We need to consider their point of view as well? Does a country running into a never ending loop of BoP crisis or for that matter a country in a fiscal debt trap instills that confidence or security for repatriation of profits? 2) Are we actually offering a competitive environment for export oriented chinese companies to transfer their manufacturing with an artificially overvalued currency and expensive input costs as electricity (this nullifies the benefits such as cheap labour)?

Is CPEC a casualty of our own greed, corruption, incompetence?
Please feel free to express your point of view.

Chinese companies or for that matter almost all the international companies core objective is to make money. They will bribe, use loop holes, negotiate their best to get the most they can. Our corruption and disloyalty to our state has cost us be it RikoDeq, Karkey, or chinese IPP's. Our previous governments even with our local IPP's have done the same.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Correction: This what they are TOLD is their purpose. Whether they beleive it or not is another matter.



Yes, they do, by migrating and doing extremely well.



That is true, both inside and outside the country.


That cannot be allowed to happen, as it would upset the status quo.

Well to be fair, the Islam we Pakistanis believe in is the one where we get to critique others, measure pant and beard lengths, and hit the streets to protest stuff we didn't correctly understand.

But if you're talking about the Islam that requires self-critique, 'ehsaan in worldly affairs (e.g., when the Prophet PBUH told the farmers they're the experts in their trade), and treating others as human...then no, we don't like that Islam.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

There is still nothing

Nothing is the word that comes to mind when talking about industry in Pakistan. I do not expect anything major to change as the rot runs deep. This is not about industry. This is about a parasite that has taken root whose goal is to suck the blood out of the animal. The governments only role [PTI,PML,PPP,Army] is to temper the parasite from killing the animal by sucking all the blood. Governments past and present merely tweak the system so that it survives, just about survives.

Just one measure I think describes Pakistamni industry. Ever since advent of the industrial era iron and steel have been crucial. You look around at the modern world. Houses, buildings, cars, trains, tables bridges, knives, bicycles, guns, tanks, ships, fridges, cookers etc etc are made of steel.

Steel is everywhere, in your home, in your office, in your car, in your built environment. Look at any battle scene and you will see charred steel. It's clear no country can go very far without steel. It is mother industry.

Now the facts. Did you know India produces nearly 40 times more steel then Pakistan. Iran produces 10 times more steel then Pakistan. Even fcukin Bangladesh produces 3 times more steel then Pakistan. This is faceplam time. What else can we say?

List of countries by steel production - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[VCheng]

Well to be fair, the Islam we Pakistanis believe in is the one where we get to critique others, measure pant and beard lengths, and hit the streets to protest stuff we didn't correctly understand.

But if you're talking about the Islam that requires self-critique, 'ehsaan in worldly affairs (e.g., when the Prophet PBUH told the farmers they're the experts in their trade), and treating others as human...then no, we don't like that Islam.

Well, I try to stay away from making any comments about any religion, but I can make an exception here and just state that religion, and how we apply it ourselves (and others) is a personal matter. The issues arise only when a society chooses to raise it to a matter of State to be enforced by law, and specially where it is almost impossible to achieve an effective consensus about major matters. Then I sit back and wait for the inevitable end results.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

So unless, in the minds of the people, the purpose of the Pakistani state changes from the glory of Islam to a more inward-focused, improving the lives of the people idea, it will be difficult to make Pakistan the next hong kong/Dubai or for that matter even an upper-middle-income country.

No.

That’s the absurdly simplistic view of Pakistan’s ills through the Pakistani leftist/fringe liberal and pro-India lens. Those that detest Pakistan and/or the religiosity in Pakistan and/or Pakistan’s stubborn refusal to capitulate to India find it (religion) a convenient scapegoat to blame all of Pakistan’s ills and in the process have largely lost any relevance to influence Pakistan’s policy making and reform outside of Western/Indian media outlets & social media.

The issue here isn’t religious ideology or the State’s ideology, it’s a matter of a broken system & poor leadership that has exacerbated the problems facing the country over decades.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

No.

That’s the absurdly simplistic view of Pakistan’s ills through the Pakistani leftist/fringe liberal and pro-India lens. Those that detest Pakistan and/or the religiosity in Pakistan and/or Pakistan’s stubborn refusal to capitulate to India find it (religion) a convenient scapegoat to blame all of Pakistan’s ills and in the process have largely lost any relevance to influence Pakistan’s policy making and reform outside of Western/Indian media outlets & social media.

@Robbie

And for what it’s worth, I consider the loss of influence (of Pakistani liberal voices) a loss for Pakistan overall. Liberal/progressive voices are important in discourse over societal reform & evolution, and while they may not have achieved changing Pakistan into a secular State, they could have influenced (in a more progressive direction) reforms in other key areas.

Instead, Pakistani liberals have chosen to take both the Military & religious underpinnings of the State and done so by playing groveling sycophants to two extremely corrupt political dynasties, and on top of that sided with racist movements like the PTM & offered justifications for terrorist groups.

 

[S.Y.A]

Nothing is the word that comes to mind when talking about industry in Pakistan. I do not expect anything major to change as the rot runs deep. This is not about industry. This is about a parasite that has taken root whose goal is to suck the blood out of the animal. The governments only role [PTI,PML,PPP,Army] is to temper the parasite from killing the animal by sucking all the blood. Governments past and present merely tweak the system so that it survives, just about survives.

Just one measure I think describes Pakistamni industry. Ever since advent of the industrial era iron and steel have been crucial. You look around at the modern world. Houses, buildings, cars, trains, tables bridges, knives, bicycles, guns, tanks, ships, fridges, cookers etc etc are made of steel.

Steel is everywhere, in your home, in your office, in your car, in your built environment. Look at any battle scene and you will see charred steel. It's clear no country can go very far without steel. It is mother industry.

Now the facts. Did you know India produces nearly 40 times more steel then Pakistan. Iran produces 10 times more steel then Pakistan. Even fcukin Bangladesh produces 3 times more steel then Pakistan. This is faceplam time. What else can we say?

List of countries by steel production - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

this is why we have different ministries, and divisions under those ministries to look into different matters. from food security to textile, from mining to steel production, and from steel production to parts and machinery production. unfortunately, none of the ministers have enough brains to make their ministries work, they only want protocol and employment for their people, and none of the civil servants look beyond their personal interests.

i am an eye witness to heads of organizations killing awesome projects just because a rival would benefit from them, and some others who changed the direction their org was headed in just because they did not belong to that field.

oh, and i know now how buildings are constructed in files only, and how to earn get kickbacks through ppra. mulk, qoum aur tax ka paisa jaye gutter main.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

The issue here isn’t religious ideology or the State’s ideology, it’s a matter of a broken system & poor leadership that has exacerbated the problems facing the country over decades.

Sorry, I disagree. You can choose to call me whatever [libtard,westoxified,etc,etc] but while blaming everything on religion is is absurd because such a subject cannot be reduced to a binary. However with this caveat out of the way religion is a major impediment and part of the problem.

This is because the parasites as described by me earlier in conjunction with the ruling elite have used Islam to create a cocktail which they have used as veil to carry out their rapacious habits and sedate the masses or numb them so they can't see what is happening to them.

The narrative of Islam has taken up such a large part of the public space and thus has detracted from what you have been centre of the public attention. In other societies such a rapacious elite would have faced a massive left based movement and thrown this order into the Arabian Sea. This has not happened because the mullah jas been released amongst the masse to confuse, sedate, divide the victims of this order.

This is nothing new. In Europe we also saw use of religion to suppress the masses which in fact gave rise to Marxism which as we all know takes very dim view of religion for this reason. Religion is perfect handmaiden of the rotten order and has served the Pakistan parasitic elites well.

Let us not forget that this very parasite, mafias, corrupt politicians and all other including military officials are the apparatchiks and the Islamic Republic. This is what Islamic Republic looks like sans the myths perpetuated by some. A rotten structure eating away the blood of 100s of million poor.