Pakistan’s GDP to expand by 4.5pc: ADB

[Nilgiri]

BD is a small country and not a superpowa wet dreamer.

Small by size. Not by population.

So people dont ridicule us.

Oh they certainly do. The words that come up mostly are: basket case, floods, corruption....or concert for Bangladesh if they are old school. That's even if they have heard of Bangladesh in the first place. At which point (if they haven't) you have to explain its a much smaller, much poorer and much more crowded version of India....and the topic of conversation will change to something else quite quickly.

We are trying our best.

Praise Hasina. We tell her what to do and she guides you lot. Enjoy it.

 

[RealNapster]

If all goes to plan (which rarely happens in my experience). There is lots of latent potential within Pakistan...even with its sub par education levels. It should be growing at least 6 - 7% right now.

Seems like that.. Well. We can only hope for the best and work hard to achieve that "best"...

 

[Talwar e Pakistan]

Seriously doubt that. But lets wait and see.



That was the legacy of decades of slower growth in India in the cold war. But the faster growth in India started in the 90s and now it will soon be adding an entire Pakistan GDP every year. Pakistans growth never really took off in the same way.

Looking at:

Report for Selected Countries and Subjects

From 1990 to 2015, India's real growth was about 4.9 times. That comes to about 6.6% per year.

In the same period, Pakistan real growth was about 2.9 times. That comes to about 4.4% per year.

The average real growth has not really changed much for Pakistan in this era. From 1990 to 2000 it was about 4.4% per year.

From 2000 to 2010, it was about 4.5%.

From 2010 to 2015, it was about 3.9%.


For India the numbers split by these eras are:

1990 - 2000: 5.6%

2000 - 2010: 7.5%

2010 - 2015: 6.6%

The average yearly real growth projections for 2015 - 2020 are:

Pakistan: 4.9%

India: 7.6%

Also the education levels have not changed so much for Pakistan if you look at the UNESCO UIS statistics comparing what they were in the 90s, 2000s and this decade....whereas rest of South Asia has marched ahead at a faster pace (and they were already somewhat higher in the 90s to begin with compared to Pakistan).

The literacy rate in Pakistan may even be dropping which is a shocking phenomenon (measured by official PBS survey recently):

2013-14 report: Literacy rate slips nationwide by 2% - The Express Tribune



No illiteracy means you cannot read and write even one language - whatever it is. Proper English literacy would be much much lower than this figure of 58%.

You can continue to doubt; but just remember we lost 80 billion dollars on war on terrorism. We grew 9% this year, terrorists are holed up in Shawal valley begging for mercy, BLA insurgency is no longer relevant as they've lost Tribal support and many of them have surrendered, Crime and Corruption has significantly dropped due to ranger operations, billions of dollars are being poured into ambitious project, our energy crises is burning off. Strolling around Pakistan; and you will see change clearly visible. 7% Will be our minimum; It is our time for an economic boom, we grew from 232 to 270 alone this year.


I suggest you read more : Economy of Pakistan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Manindra]

You can continue to doubt; but just remember we lost 80 billion dollars on war on terrorism. We grew 9% this year, terrorists are holed up in Shawal valley begging for mercy, BLA insurgency is no longer relevant as they've lost Tribal support and many of them have surrendered, Crime and Corruption has significantly dropped due to ranger operations, billions of dollars are being poured into ambitious project, our energy crises is burning off. Strolling around Pakistan; and you will see change clearly visible. 7% Will be our minimum; It is our time for an economic boom, we grew from 232 to 270 alone this year.


I suggest you read more : Economy of Pakistan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

9 % figure you are quoting is with inflation. So, it means 7% wish of your is more worse than expected if we count with inflation.

 

[Nilgiri]

You can continue to doubt; but just remember we lost 80 billion dollars on war on terrorism. We grew 9% this year, terrorists are holed up in Shawal valley begging for mercy, BLA insurgency is no longer relevant as they've lost Tribal support and many of them have surrendered, Crime and Corruption has significantly dropped due to ranger operations, billions of dollars are being poured into ambitious project, our energy crises is burning off. Strolling around Pakistan; and you will see change clearly visible. 7% Will be our minimum; It is our time for an economic boom, we grew from 232 to 270 alone this year.

First of all you didnt grow to 270 from 232 in just one year, it was two:

Report for Selected Countries and Subjects

Current Nominal USD measures have two major disadvantages:

a) price levels ignored - big problem with current growth rates compared to REAL growth rates (which factors inflation).

b) Pakistan (and most countries of the world) do not use USD for they daily purchases/transactions, especially domestic consumption. The USD inflates and appreciates/depreciates w.r.t to the PKR quite externally to Pakistan's economy (except it can be argued for trade...but thats a considerably small portion of Pakistan's economy....and maybe foreign investment which is again quite small % wise....either regarding GDP or GCF as the base).

Thats why I went by real domestic growth rates in PKR (which is the main "ambassador" of Pakistani economic activity).

However I agree that Pakistan economic picture is improving, I am just more conservative about the figures and timeline that its going to take....given what I have seen regarding investment cycle maturation, education level requirements and the persistently low GCF in Pakistan.....coupled with some very dicey proposed/projected interest rates from the CPEC project.

So we will have to wait and see. However you have every right to be optimistic about your country and I wish it the best.

 

[RAMPAGE]

so it mean's at the end of 2018 we can have that 2% additional growth rate ,as much of energy crisis would be sorted out by that time... ??? secondly we can have some 2% improvement in growth rate due to improvement in security issues. so it mean's in 2019 we will have 8-8.5% gdp growth rate ????????????

No, the security situation will not improve any further unless there is peace in Afghanistan. Also, economics is not my area of expertise and I do not know toll of terrorism on our GDP growth for any fiscal year.

I doubt that we'll cross the 7% figure in the near future. It might have been possible if we had been able to transfer low tech manufacturing industries from China or other countries, moving from low tech manufacturing to high tech manufacturing.

As I have said before, the incompetence of predecessor governments will continue to haunt us for a long time. Already, the looming water crisis gives me nightmares. Despite the alarming warnings of the associated institutions, the current government is completely ignoring it.

 

[Fracker]

Too slow, Can't we have more industry & farm to atleast cut down import. That will increase the GDP much faster.

It is a shame that Pakistan being Agriculture country still import oil seeds, vegetables, paper, organic chemical from other countries. I see lot of potential in these areas.