Pakistan's GDP growth expected to touch 3% mark for FY2021

[RoadRunner401]

you guys,are celebrating a 3.94% as,a major achievement. by the way this is from a Pakistani source no doubt so I have my doubts,on credibility of this.

just to show you how relatively poor this growth rate I'm going to post a a source of the growth rate of India a country ravaged by covid and still the reduced growth is,over 10% ...
the source is from.uk so no arguments over credibility either and is dated 21st April

Oxford Economics lowers India's 2021 GDP growth forecast to 10.2%

Oxford Economics also said that notwithstanding the likelihood of further mobility restrictions, it expects India's targeted lockdown approach, less stringent restrictions, and resilient consumer and business behaviour to mitigate the economic impact of the second wave.

m.economictimes.com

a developing country needs minimum 7%
and when your rupee is so weak this,explain why you are so far behind even Bangladesh now

Indian GDP is estimated to contract by 7.7% in FY21 compared to a growth of 4.2% in FY20, according to the first advance estimates released by the Central Statistics Office on Thursday, ahead of the Union budget. India’s annual GDP last contracted in FY80 by 5.24%. However, this is the steepest contraction since independence, suggest figures collated from the CSO.

A Bloomberg poll of 15 economists estimated GDP to contract by 7.5% in FY21, similar to the central bank’s last projection in December 2020.

Gross Value Added, which strips out indirect tax and subsidies, is expected to contract by 7.2% compared to a growth of 3.9% in the same duration.

Nominal GDP, which will be used as the base for FY21’s revised estimates in the upcoming budget, is estimated to fall by 4.2% in FY21 compared to a growth of 7.2% in FY20.

According to data released so far, GDP contracted by 23.9% in Q1FY21 and by 7.5% in Q2, averaging a contraction of 15.7% in the first half of the financial year.


Per Capita GDP
The recession the Indian economy found itself in the midst of, in the first half of the financial year, took a toll on the standard of living of a majority of Indians. Per capita GDP is estimated at Rs 1.43 lakh in FY21, a contraction of 5.2% in nominal terms.
On purchasing power parity basis, per capita GDP is also likely to slip below $2000 this year, a level often seen as an inflection point for economies.


7% further contraction of the Indian economy on top of 29% already experienced, Must means Pakistans 4 to 5% growth is remarkable.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

I am more interested to learn about the undocumented, unregulated and untaxed parts of the Pak economy. For no taxation or regulation means no hindrance in the growth as per Macroeconomics 101....

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

you guys,are celebrating a 3.94% as,a major achievement. by the way this is from a Pakistani source no doubt so I have my doubts,on credibility of this.

just to show you how relatively poor this growth rate I'm going to post a a source of the growth rate of India a country ravaged by covid and still the reduced growth is,over 10% ...
the source is from.uk so no arguments over credibility either and is dated 21st April

Oxford Economics lowers India's 2021 GDP growth forecast to 10.2%

Oxford Economics also said that notwithstanding the likelihood of further mobility restrictions, it expects India's targeted lockdown approach, less stringent restrictions, and resilient consumer and business behaviour to mitigate the economic impact of the second wave.

m.economictimes.com

a developing country needs minimum 7%
and when your rupee is so weak this,explain why you are so far behind even Bangladesh now

Thats just estimate coming from -8 contraction in GDP. Net result basically zero in best case scenario in 2 years. That best case scenario is long gone as India have run out of oxygen.

Pakistan final result will be closer to 4.5% growth. For that we have to wait few more months. So 4.5% growth vs -8% in 2020-21.

India pre covid growth rate was 4.2% and coming down despite obvious Modi era fudging with numbers.

 

[Enigma SIG]

Na karo yar, Noonies and Modi lickers are having heart attack.

OTOH opposition parties are salivating on the prospect of getting their hands dirty with the CA surplus money and boosted USD reserves come next election.

 

[Falcon26]

Good news, however, it's only a start and at least a decade of sustainable growth is requires to truly uplift a substantial segment of society out of poverty and to change the aspirations of the country.

PTI needs to be at the helm of affairs for the next two terms and some new democratic, authentic political parties need to be created with PPP, PMLN, PTM and all other traitorous entities disbanded and punished fully.

Pakistan needs a decade of 6-plus GDP growth every year to be in a position to become competitive and catch up with other Asian countries.

 

[Syed1.]

Meanwhile Pmln Khotis called this disaster a success
View attachment 746029View attachment 746030View attachment 746031View attachment 746032View attachment 746033View attachment 746035

It's their special diet of donkeys they cannot help it.

 

[Norwegian]

It's their special diet of donkeys they cannot help it.

 

[ziaulislam]

Since lock down didnt occur and we mixed it with eid last quarter might push growth to 5
Rmeber peak growth PMLN had was 5.2(5.8 projected but revised was 5.2)

This is very surprisngly since i thought above 4% is not acheivable without deficit in pakistan

This is probably due to strutural reforms in export, IT ans remittence surge

This makes a 7% growth a real possibility if major obstacles in energy are resolved which will lead to investor confidence

Pakistan needs a decade of 6-plus GDP growth every year to be in a position to become competitive and catch up with other Asian countries.

Without causing a meltdown
A meltdown wastes 3-4 years in stablization
Hence a 4% growth without meltdown is 10x better then a 10% growth with meltdown

Countries that grew 5% like thailand are doing expontentially bettet then us because they didnt had meltdown

India also grew 3-5% for most of 1990-2020 but didnt had meltdown so did very good
We had meltdown literally every 5yrs
PTI should hit the breaks if it sees deficit ballooning

 

[ghazi52]

 

[Amaa'n]

****
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language***

 

[Goritoes]

Pakistan needs to open more Opportunities for Foreign Pakistani's to invest, it is very hard and expensive. Since I am in the US i met a lot of Pakistani who want to invest and start businesses but their cry is always about NOC's and Bribes.

 

[Jungibaaz]

The government's GDP growth estimate of 3.94% needs to be taken with a big heap of salt, they are under pressure to perform in some very visible and marketable ways, whereas the IMF's and IBRD/IDA's projections are much much lower, less than half that actually. Let's hope for the best.

 

[Norwegian]

The government's GDP growth estimate of 3.94% needs to be taken with a big heap of salt, they are under pressure to perform in some very visible and marketable ways, whereas the IMF's and IBRD/IDA's projections are much much lower, less than half that actually. Let's hope for the best.

Nothing special about it. Pakistan was already at that stage back in 2010-2011

 

[Syed1.]

The government's GDP growth estimate of 3.94% needs to be taken with a big heap of salt, they are under pressure to perform in some very visible and marketable ways, whereas the IMF's and IBRD/IDA's projections are much much lower, less than half that actually. Let's hope for the best.

Yeah let's take PTI's estimate of 4% growth with big heap of salt but believe PML-N's fake 5.2% growth number as the absolute truth because we like them more.


Sahi hogaya

Nothing special about it. Pakistan was already at that stage back in 2010-2011View attachment 746760View attachment 746761

Wheat production at highest ever level. Cement at highest in our history. LSM touched highest level multiple times in this fiscal year. Exports all set to bring all time record. Remittances at highest ever level. I can go on and on.


But no the 4% growth figure is fake because some know it all keyboard warrior who didn't even glance at the actual numbers said so.

 

[Patriot forever]

The government's GDP growth estimate of 3.94% needs to be taken with a big heap of salt, they are under pressure to perform in some very visible and marketable ways, whereas the IMF's and IBRD/IDA's projections are much much lower, less than half that actually. Let's hope for the best.

The numbers are good.
On the contrary LSM is underrepresented, will definitely be in the range of 12-14% by the end of FY not 9% (the lock down contraction last year is still to be registered and will show extreme growth in April and May due to low base effect).
Agriculture is spot on I was expecting a bit more on that front since we achieved excellent and in most instances record output but cotton pulled us back .
Services are inline with expectation with transport and communication on the downward side due to corona, on the other hand insurance banking sector showed strong growth ( can easily be verified by insurance and banking sector performance and returns in stocks as they posted record all time high profits) , along with the growth of retail food/tobacco group (growth in lsm on production side which is roughly around 15% ) petroleum products sales are an all time high. Electricity consumption has growth. Imports are high as well. Most of all tax collection is a good indicator of services sector. Construction posted healthy growth which is in line with cement sales and increasing steel imports.

Very much as expected and inline with MEI.

IMF projections were a joke 3 months in, only lsm will contribute that much (if we take even its contribution at minimum which is 10%, 12-14% growth contributes 1.4% to overall GDP growth figure) Sbp was very much onpoint but were very conservative because in their last update it not sure about the impact of corona virus 3rd wave. We fared considerably well given the tax collection data in April, cement sales car sales bank loans data all point in that direction, lsm will be out by 8th of next next month so will give the manufacturing side of covid impact. Covid had no impact on Agriculture.

From the data we have actual growth will surpass projection.
Combined LSM index for 9 months is all time high.
Remittances will cross 28b,
Exports will cross 25b easy after 10 years I guess.
Tax revenue is exceptional and 130b more than target until now.
Imports amount is substantial.
Everything contributes/suggests growth.

Please let us know if there is any actual data that suggests otherwise.