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Realpolitik
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Dr Farrukh Saleem
The government of Pakistan is high on cocaine. It spends a whopping Rs500 billion more than it earns. We are also high on cocaine. Our imports are $15 billion more than our exports. The government must beg, borrow or both. In November, we begged the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for more cocaine so that we could maintain our high for a few more months. Then we went to Abu Dhabi for even more begging. We begged the United States, Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, China, Japan, Australia and the European Union. The US, China and the world are all sure that we will keep coming back for more. Who's going to give us $20 billion worth of cocaine every year, year in year out?
In November, the IMF promised a $7.6 billion Stand-By Agreement (SBA) only because General David Petraeus, the current commander of the US Central Command, personally intervened on our behalf. In Tokyo, Friends of Democratic Pakistan pledged $5 billion because Uncle Sam persuaded them to do so.
Washington, the District of Columbia, is exactly 11,388 kilometres from Islamabad. Washington has jurisdiction over five per cent of humanity and that human capital produces some 25 per cent of global GDP year in year out. And, that means that Uncle Sam is the only uncle on the face of the planet who has the cocaine to keep our obsession with cocaine alive and kicking.
It so happens that some 72,000 of Uncle Sam's favourite GIs are trapped in the midst of the 'graveyard of empires' exactly 11,152 kilometres away from home, sweet home. And, the GIs need breakfast sandwiches, cereal, crackers, peanut butter, jam and muffins. And, the only way that all those GIs can get breakfast sandwiches, cereal, crackers, peanut butter, jam and muffins is through the Karachi Port Trust.
Uncle Sam is scared, fearful and panic-stricken; terrified of Al Qaeda, its very own Frankenstein. Too bad, almost all of Uncle Sam's Combat Brigade Teams (CBTs) are currently deployed meaning that the United States Army is fully deployed (Iraq, South Korea and Afghanistan). But then there's the 7th largest army in the world. The problem is that the 7th largest army's Al Khalid Main Battle Tanks, Hamza Infantry Fighting Vehicles, Talha Armoured Personnel Carriers, all of its infantry regiments, its artillery, armoured corps regiments, machine guns, projectile launchers, self-propelled Howitzers and 81 mm mortars are all aiming east.
Uncle Sam has sent in the 75th Ranger Regiment, 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment-Delta, 2nd Marine Special Operations Battalion, 3rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division, 1st Infantry Division, 2nd Infantry Regiment and 6th Field Artillery Regiment. The GIs have been away -- away from the land of milk and honey -- for a bad seven years. They have little or no intelligence on the Frankenstein that Director Casey created some 28 years ago.
Uncle Sam is short on military manpower, low on intelligence and lacks an alternative supply line. We are up against an enemy in the east which is eight times bigger and an enemy within. We are beggars all right but have the surplus military manpower and the intelligence. What we need is lots of cocaine plus counterinsurgency training and equipment. Uncle Sam has what we need. And, we have what the Uncle needs.
America is confused like never before. There have already been a handful of strategic reviews of America's Afghan policy. There was a time when the Vice President's Office used to control the Pakistan policy (which has since been hijacked by the special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan). America is confused like never before. President Obama does not want Afghanistan to remain the centrepiece of his presidency for the following four years. General Petraeus, on the other hand, wants to replicate his Iraq success but Secretary Gates is at odds with General Petraeus (Gates was the first civilian in the past 50 years to have fired a top general). In 2003, the United States Department of State had declared Gulbuddin Hekmatyar as a 'Specially Designated Global Terrorist' and the special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan has now opened up communication channels with the same 'Specially Designated Global Terrorist'. And, that's realpolitik.
The writer is the executive director of the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com