Pakistan's exports declined by 24% in july 2022.

[Ssan]

You really expect someone to know what normalization is when they fall for the Imran Khan nay 40,000 rupay ka qarza lia, ham nay 20,000 lia! (And yes, IK is responsible for this too, he also made these statements).

But bro, when IK made it, he was speaking of some truth.

Musharraf took the size of debt to GDP down from 90 to 55%. We were about to default in 2000 too. Then these PDM parties took it all the way back up to 90% again and PTI had just started to bring it down again.

Now these assholes want to borrow 31 bn$ for this year- we will be well above 100% after PTI had just bought it under control.

 

[Jango]

I do not disagree with that, hence my original question, why was this tax withdrawn? N saw it is already losing popularity, and it couldn't afford to further make it's voter base from the traders angry? Jo 2 saal ki mehnat thi FBR ki regarding the POS system, all down the drain.

@Mav3rick , see the link below:

Unfair on taxpayers

Unfair move has drawn valid criticism as it coincides with drastic increase in income tax on salaried people and corporates.

www.dawn.com

 

[Mav3rick]

Bro, i don’t know why you view Dar so positively- if anyone is responsible for the current pain we are in- it’s Dar. I am not understating this- he really did long term damage to our economy- burnt through our reserves to keep the rupee stable- in the short term this feels great- in the long term it’s like heroine- makes you incredibly incompetitive. Your impression of Dar is fallacious. People have been posting feel good news about Pakistan since Musharraf when we joined the N-11. If anyone deserves credit for these news article, give it to your least favorite dictator.

I think the only argument against Dar is he burned foreign reserves to maintain strength of PKR. The Indian Finance Ministry very recently announced another 200 Billion USD to support INR. There are times when countries have to make efforts to maintain their currencies and start of CPEC was precisely that time.

And when any of you oppose Dar, do you forget how much criticism there is by experts on PTI's handling of Finances? Can there be any Finance Minister who is not opposed by 'some' experts? It is the end result which matters right? And I can argue on all matters under Dar, till the end of his tenure on which he performed better than anyone else had done in the recent history. Any PTI Finance Minister whose performance is commendable?

Of all the fronts you listed, I see you have left out the most crucial which is the current account. Which is surprising. Even with the list presented, your point is not made. PTI inherited a much worse economy when normalized against the official size of the economy. Unfortunately, the last two items on your list are hard to evaluate numerically, the others (maybe excepting the circular debt), along with current account, exports, remittances, banking regulations, clearly show PTI inherited a much worse economy.

You say that I left out the most crucial item which is the CA but don't you think that all the items I did mention are crucial to CA, directly or indirectly? We can also compare the CA under Dar to that of any of your choice of PTI's FM and see how much of a difference there really is, especially in light of all the related items.

I wonder why you would say that it is hard to evaluate the last 2 options I posted which were 1) IMF plan sabotage & 2) the diplomatic front; can anyone in Pakistan not understand what sabotage of an IMF program would cost Pakistan or the fact that our worsening diplomatic front and deteriorating relations with even some of our closest friends has a direct effect on our economy?

It is my firm believe that people criticize Dar only because of their political affiliations. Dar would not be criticized by a neutral, apolitical person when he/she considers the situation and events of Governance from 2013 to 2017 (Dar's tenure). His performance may not be perfect, but it wasn't as bad as so many of you try to make it to be. Incidentally, the only successful IMF program in the history of Pakistan too was under Dar.

 

[Mav3rick]

this is where you are wrong and need to check the figures and facts. Your base is wrong on this thats why you are seeing things differently. Whole story in just 1 video. watch till end

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=982167622475578

I tried to watch the video and it turns out that it is not 1 video but a video comprising random tidbits from here and there strewn together by someone for some very specific reason, out of context and without allowing the other side to explain.

I am more than happy to discuss facts and figures.

@Mav3rick , see the link below:

Unfair on taxpayers

Unfair move has drawn valid criticism as it coincides with drastic increase in income tax on salaried people and corporates.

www.dawn.com

This is what I wrote about the matter in one of my earlier posts in response to your question:

"Tax was withdrawn for populist measure and for appeasement. It was a surrender which we cannot afford."

 

[AZ1]

I tried to watch the video and it turns out that it is not 1 video but a video comprising random tidbits from here and there strewn together by someone for some very specific reason, out of context and without allowing the other side to explain.

I am more than happy to discuss facts and figures.


This is what I wrote about the matter in one of my earlier posts in response to your question:

"Tax was withdrawn for populist measure and for appeasement. It was a surrender which we cannot afford."

the video clips are from end of 2017 to onwards. Video is very clear with dates year etc

You dont want to agree or even listen to the truth in front of you its upto you.

even shabbar zaidi said pakistan is in current situation due to pmln and ppp era's.

Okay here is question for you

Name 1 project by pmln which increase our exports or revenue?

They will keep taking loan and loan and make bridge to show how good they are and their performance you will see.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556517887216607232

How economy is improving another lie on face, kindly let me know what do you think if economy improving?

 

[Ssan]

I think the only argument against Dar is he burned foreign reserves to maintain strength of PKR. The Indian Finance Ministry very recently announced another 200 Billion USD to support INR. There are times when countries have to make efforts to maintain their currencies and start of CPEC was precisely that time.

And when any of you oppose Dar, do you forget how much criticism there is by experts on PTI's handling of Finances? Can there be any Finance Minister who is not opposed by 'some' experts? It is the end result which matters right? And I can argue on all matters under Dar, till the end of his tenure on which he performed better than anyone else had done in the recent history. Any PTI Finance Minister whose performance is commendable?


You say that I left out the most crucial item which is the CA but don't you think that all the items I did mention are crucial to CA, directly or indirectly? We can also compare the CA under Dar to that of any of your choice of PTI's FM and see how much of a difference there really is, especially in light of all the related items.

I wonder why you would say that it is hard to evaluate the last 2 options I posted which were 1) IMF plan sabotage & 2) the diplomatic front; can anyone in Pakistan not understand what sabotage of an IMF program would cost Pakistan or the fact that our worsening diplomatic front and deteriorating relations with even some of our closest friends has a direct effect on our economy?

It is my firm believe that people criticize Dar only because of their political affiliations. Dar would not be criticized by a neutral, apolitical person when he/she considers the situation and events of Governance from 2013 to 2017 (Dar's tenure). His performance may not be perfect, but it wasn't as bad as so many of you try to make it to be. Incidentally, the only successful IMF program in the history of Pakistan too was under Dar.

No I am so sorry- Dar inherited an economy that he totally bundled- when he handed it off to Miftah, it was so rotten, so bludgeoned that you can take a look at our CA that was left to the caretaker govt and the resulting debt that accrued.

Dar was giving the Pakistani economy heroine. It felt great to some for some time, then the entire economy crashed and burned. Incidentally, part of that crash was on Miftahs head, which is why you are blaming him. You ought to blame Dar.

Regarding your last two points, I leave it out only because I would not be able to prove it via numbers. I still think that PTI inherited a worse situation that N did on both those fronts too. But it’s a qualitative measure. The other things you can measure objectively with numbers.

 

[Ssan]

Also you say that Indian bank is now supporting with however much $200 bn.

Two things here:- Pakistans political economy and Indias political economy is not that far apart. India also has a politics of inflation- their economy is a bit better than ours because at least the commodities they import are reasonable. Otherwise, they also have political economy problems with inflation same as us and to a lesser degree Bangladesh.

Having said that, I have not read their state banks policy on the support they will give to their currency, whether it is to smooth out volatility and absorb high frequency shocks or whether they will keep the INR at a certain rate. Dar did the latter and in his four years, he did insurmountable damage. Exports went down. Remittances did not grow. Imports grew through the roof. CAD went from a couple billion a year to a whopping 20 bn and in the last months of Miftah were at 3bn a month and going in wrong direction.

 

[Mav3rick]

I don't have the time to go through each of the points you mentioned, but here is the link for the quoted point above:

Pakistan: The Next Colombia Success Story?

Pakistan has the potential to be a global turnaround story. I recently spent time in-country listening to a wide range of perspectives and I am convinced that U.S. policymakers and business leaders need to look at Pakistan beyond the security lens. Getting our relationship right will require...

www.forbes.com

No where in this article has the economic prowess or acumen of Dar, or the economic miracles of the man been cited...or any acknowledgement of economic reforms. Those economic which have been cited are those from 2013, compared to 2002! The article looks at the next success story from the war and terrorism angle, and on the basis of the population that we have. There is not a SINGLE economic action by Dar which has been quoted in the article as contributing to the 'success story'. Please...let's not be intellectualy dishonest here.

Also, you mention that Dar got the economy in bad times. Oil prices at global lows, the world growing after a recession, China investing, supply chains popping up everywhere, yet we were declining in our exports, pumping USD into the open market at a rate faster than we could recoup, and becoming a service economy. Where is the success in that?

Aur sonay par suhaga, we were putting up capacity payment plants left right and center just for electoral gimmicks.

Look at it this way. You are in pain...doctor A comes, hooks you up on fentanyl...you are in bliss, the world is paradise, for the moment...but then the long term effects kick in and you are left in ruin for the rest of your life.

In comparison, another doctor comes, gives you only morphine but keeps you on a long term sustainable plan of action....the momentary pain will be greater, and you will think that doc A was much better, he gave you fentanyl and everything was so good...this is your argument right now. Keep up the fentanyl, and just keep on looking at the short term.

For how long would Dar have been pumping USD into the open market, by taking loans? Your industrial base was shrinking (even PPP didn't manage to do that), yet you were spending USD as if it's nobody's business. Shukar hai us waqt oil prices weren't going haywire.

I read the document you mentioned and though it does not mention Dar specifically, it does mention Pakistan's macroeconomic and structural reforms over the last several governments leading up to the fact that by the time of the article the budget deficit had narrowed and GDP growth rose to a stable 4.5% and built foreign reserves up to over $17 billion etc. It also captured the fact that in May, Standard and Poor upgraded Pakistan’s credit rating from stable to positive. It also mentions the war Pakistan initiated against the TTP after APS massacre which was a massive endeavor which required hundreds of Billions of rupees at that time every month; and various other challenges such as the severe energy crisis, over 5 month long dharna which paralyzed Islamabad etc. So overall, it was all Dar who faced all those challenges and managed beautifully. Now, I wonder if I was being intellectually dishonest by singling out a single article from the entire list and which also sings praises of PML and by virtue of Dar whenever it speaks of the matters within as without Financial stability and performance of Dar none of it would have been possible. Perhaps, you should revise your words.

Dar did inherit a bad economy in 2013 which is evident from the fact that the first thing Pakistan had to do after his swearing-in was to go to IMF for a bailout. It was fortunate that the Oil prices started to come down by the end of 2014 and plummeted by 2015 stabilizing by 2016/17, just like the prices did under PTI in 2019, 2020 and 2021. But the biggest difference is the fact that Dar got the economy when the country was within a rising energy crisis which severely effected our exports, especially textile and is evident with the fact that export suffered over the years. However, when PTI assumed power, we had surplus energy capacity, thanks to the power plants which were setup by PML and hence industry was being provided uninterrupted power. Don't you see this fact? Chinese investment into CPEC is more of parts, expertise, machinery and labor whereas Pakistan had to invest billions of rupees in terms of investment, land and security etc. You also need to take note that we were paying heavily for security related products too during those years such as SSN's and Thunders etc., which were reflected in our import bill along with the heavy CPEC related imports but which were to subside in the coming years, as they did.

I am confident that as time would have passed and energy crisis overcome, Dar would have started to focus on exports too. You cannot consider him that stupid to not focus on exports eventually. It is again beyond me why you think that Dar was just doing things which were temporary in nature, especially when PML was confident of returning to power up until the end of 2017 atleast.

 

[Ssan]

I read the document you mentioned and though it does not mention Dar specifically, it does mention Pakistan's macroeconomic and structural reforms over the last several governments leading up to the fact that by the time of the article the budget deficit had narrowed and GDP growth rose to a stable 4.5% and built foreign reserves up to over $17 billion etc. It also captured the fact that in May, Standard and Poor upgraded Pakistan’s credit rating from stable to positive. It also mentions the war Pakistan initiated against the TTP after APS massacre which was a massive endeavor which required hundreds of Billions of rupees at that time every month; and various other challenges such as the severe energy crisis, over 5 month long dharna which paralyzed Islamabad etc. So overall, it was all Dar who faced all those challenges and managed beautifully. Now, I wonder if I was being intellectually dishonest by singling out a single article from the entire list and which also sings praises of PML and by virtue of Dar whenever it speaks of the matters within as without Financial stability and performance of Dar none of it would have been possible. Perhaps, you should revise your words.

Dar did inherit a bad economy in 2013 which is evident from the fact that the first thing Pakistan had to do after his swearing-in was to go to IMF for a bailout. It was fortunate that the Oil prices started to come down by the end of 2014 and plummeted by 2015 stabilizing by 2016/17, just like the prices did under PTI in 2019, 2020 and 2021. But the biggest difference is the fact that Dar got the economy when the country was within a rising energy crisis which severely effected our exports, especially textile and is evident with the fact that export suffered over the years. However, when PTI assumed power, we had surplus energy capacity, thanks to the power plants which were setup by PML and hence industry was being provided uninterrupted power. Don't you see this fact? Chinese investment into CPEC is more of parts, expertise, machinery and labor whereas Pakistan had to invest billions of rupees in terms of investment, land and security etc. You also need to take note that we were paying heavily for security related products too during those years such as SSN's and Thunders etc., which were reflected in our import bill along with the heavy CPEC related imports but which were to subside in the coming years, as they did.

I am confident that as time would have passed and energy crisis overcome, Dar would have started to focus on exports too. You cannot consider him that stupid to not focus on exports eventually. It is again beyond me why you think that Dar was just doing things which were temporary in nature, especially when PML was confident of returning to power up until the end of 2017 atleast.

Dude it seems we cannot agree on basic facts. I can throw official CAD charts, public debt charts, other quantitative charts at you, but you want to ignore those.

Forget PMLN/PTI, we cannot even agree who the better Finance minister is in PMLN. All my technical training in economics and statistics won’t convince you if you can’t see what the charts show you to be true.

 

[Mav3rick]

the video clips are from end of 2017 to onwards. Video is very clear with dates year etc

You dont want to agree or even listen to the truth in front of you its upto you.

even shabbar zaidi said pakistan is in current situation due to pmln and ppp era's.

Okay here is question for you

Name 1 project by pmln which increase our exports or revenue?

They will keep taking loan and loan and make bridge to show how good they are and their performance you will see.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556517887216607232

How economy is improving another lie on face, kindly let me know what do you think if economy improving?

They invested heavily in Power projects. Will you not give them credit for that? Imagine the crisis today if they had not invested so heavily in power projects.

As for Shabbar Zaidi, do you know what he said about the economy in 2021? He said that the economy under PTI had gone bankrupt.

Also, just 1 example from the video in which Miftah said that the PDM will not allow PTI Government to increase petrol prices, the crude was around 80/barrel and hence no real justification for the Government to increase prices except for the fact that PKR was weakening. How can it be compared to the situation when brent was over 120 by June 2022 and over 100 by May 2022?

 

[AZ1]

They invested heavily in Power projects. Will you not give them credit for that? Imagine the crisis today if they had not invested so heavily in power projects.

As for Shabbar Zaidi, do you know what he said about the economy in 2021? He said that the economy under PTI had gone bankrupt.

Also, just 1 example from the video in which Miftah said that the PDM will not allow PTI Government to increase petrol prices, the crude was around 80/barrel and hence no real justification for the Government to increase prices except for the fact that PKR was weakening. How can it be compared to the situation when brent was over 120 by June 2022 and over 100 by May 2022?

they are nit investment but loans which we and our generation will have to payback. why didn't they go for coal projects as per samar mubakar video?

also what about the capcity payment? which we have to pay now even we are not using and it's going to increase more and more with passage of time.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556628198011568129

 

[ghazi52]

,..,

Maersk temporarily suspends C&F export bookings from Pakistan​

• Says export bookings on FOB to continue as usual

BR Web Desk
August 12, 2022

Maersk, a major freight services provider, announced on Friday that it will be temporarily suspending acceptance of C&F (Freight Prepaid) bookings with effect from August 15.

In a notification to its customers, Maersk said restrictions and limitations imposed by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on outward freight remittances for foreign carriers operating in Pakistan has put it “in a very difficult situation for accepting your C&F (Freight Prepaid) shipments for a time being”.

“To maintain our services, we are compelled to temporarily suspend acceptance of your C&F (Freight Prepaid) bookings with effect from 15th August 2022 until remittances restrictions are eased/lifted by SBP,” the advisory to customers read.
However, the company said that it will continue to accept export bookings on free on board (FOB) (Freight Collect) terms as usual.

 

[maithil]

Forcibly shutting imports and yet 1.2B CAD.. Experienced people at work.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1562330882190499840