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Pakistan’s expected debt to be $110 billion by 2020

Naheed Janjua

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There is increasing concern in Pakistan over the foreign loans situation and the direction this is taking the country.

To offset the declining foreign currency reserves of Pakistan and to pay back foreign debt obligations has meant the country has taken out more loans to pay off existing ones. The past 7 months has seen Pakistan take out new loans worth over $4.6 billion, this includes the $1.9 billion obtained from China.

read more: Bloomberg thinks Pakistan will be an over-performer next year

Overall in the last 3 years the government has taken out over $25 billion in fresh foreign loans, this is a net addition $14bn of loans.

The country’s debt to GDP is close to 70 percent. In June 2016, the finance ministry amended the law that had a statutory limit of restricting the public debt at 60 percent of GDP.

Majority of Pakistan foreign borrowing is going on budgetary support
Numbers at the ministry of finance and economic affairs have shown that Pakistan has received $4.6 billion foreign economic assistance between July 2016 to January 2017. Out of this $2.3bn has been borrowed for bolstering budgetary and balance of payments. This is money that will make no return and has to be paid off ultimately using further loans.

A balance of payments deficit is considered as a bad omen for a country as the ability to pay back the liabilities starts to diminish.

These borrowings were from the $1 billion Sukuk Bonds launched to by pledging the M2 motorway (Lahore-Islamabad) as collateral. Further, $1.2 billion have been taken from foreign banks.

These $4.6 billion of the foreign loans make up 57 percent of the annual economic assistance to Pakistan which earlier government predicted at $8 billion.

Read more: While Indians & Bangladeshis replace Pakistani workers in Gulf countries government of Pakistan sleeps..

Loans from China to pay our current bills
Pakistan has been taking loans from Chinese banks under the name of CPEC but these loans are being used for budgetary support and current payments.

Moreover, the majority of these loans, $1 billion, are being taken at commercial rates and the other $900m for project financing. Loans taken for the latter purpose – are used for investment – are loans worth taking out which as long as the rate of return we make on them is greater even by a small amount – we can repay and they benefit the country.

read more: Pakistan’s expected debt to be $110 billion by 2020
 
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Naheed sb,

Pakistan is receiving USD 46 bn from China as part of CPEC. Cant they use it to pay off this foreign debt.

Regards
 
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Naheed sb,

Pakistan is receiving USD 46 bn from China as part of CPEC. Cant they use it to pay off this foreign debt.

Regards
no because unfortunately most of that is in loans! we are being misled on the numbers. Massive error by the government - this is a huge thing we are giving chinese and we have ended up paying for it ourselves!
 
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Naheed sb,

Pakistan is receiving USD 46 bn from China as part of CPEC. Cant they use it to pay off this foreign debt.

Regards
Pakistan is not receiving it as money.It will be spent on various projects under construction or planned as per CPEC.Infrastructure which is under construction as part of CPEC is not using any grant.It is also a form of debt,which we shall pay when using this infrastructure.
 
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Interesting that this writer is predicting doom - Bloomberg recently wrote article which said Pakistan would be an over-performer next year.
 
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The idea is pretty simple !

Asset = Liability + Equity.

FDI means equity ! Loans are a liability. Liability has first right to returns from assets then equity/ shareholders.

E.g. in CPEC project, china is giving loans ie a liability which implies the first right on any profits made by any project goes to china. What pak govt is investing is equity. It will get returns the last.
 
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Naheed sb,

Pakistan is receiving USD 46 bn from China as part of CPEC. Cant they use it to pay off this foreign debt.

Regards
Pakistan will get highways powerplants and railways under cpec. The physical structure.
Now you have to analyze which industries will be benefited by these additions ?
Which sector is suffering low production due to lack of electricity. ?
Are any new industries being set up in parallel which will use these facilities ?
What is % utilization of karachi port facilities now ? Are u going to import and export from karachi or the new port ?
 
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Naheed sb,

Pakistan is receiving USD 46 bn from China as part of CPEC. Cant they use it to pay off this foreign debt.

Regards
india-government-debt-to-gdp.png


debt if invested carefully can help you in progress too.
 
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We will see how things develop however , Energy crisis is the first important issue
 
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Interesting that this writer is predicting doom - Bloomberg recently wrote article which said Pakistan would be an over-performer next year.
This happens when you look at the things in absolution. Its inevitable for the debt to grow for a country with meager savings to GDP ratio. If people aren't saving enough, then either government would have to step in via expansionary fiscal spending or the capital coming form outside either in the form of FDI or External Debt. No country can escape the debt level rising, an economy however, can outgrow the debt. As long as the GDP growth is higher or equal to the debt growth, country's D/G ratio remains comfortable. This is what economists believe. Journalists are not economists, so whenever one sees Debt level rising in absolute terms, you see such news.
 
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This happens when you look at the things in absolution. Its inevitable for the debt to grow for a country with meager savings to GDP ratio. If people aren't saving enough, then either government would have to step in via expansionary fiscal spending or the capital coming form outside either in the form of FDI or External Debt. No country can escape the debt level rising, an economy however, can outgrow the debt. As long as the GDP growth is higher or equal to the debt growth, country's D/G ratio remains comfortable. This is what economists believe. Journalists are not economists, so whenever one sees Debt level rising in absolute terms, you see such news.

ok - but in this case none of the factors you mention are in place. We are not growing at a rate faster than debt, neither FDI not coming in...
 
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