Here are some excerpts of an interesting Op Ed in The Nation newspaper by former finance minister Shaukat Tarin:
Despite all the gloomy news and events that has started to define Pakistan, our national resilience remains intact. However, the question that is one every one’s mind is for how long?
Let’s start with the positives (yes there are always some!) of Present Day Pakistan;
• CP Inflation while high is showing signs of becoming range bound;
• Foreign Remittances continue to rise (the PRI scheme launched under my stewardship has borne fruit with remittances expected to cross the $l2b annual mark this year);
• We have finally started to debate/define our role in the devastating ‘War on Terror” and the end game of Afghan conflict has started to be played out.
• Pakistan’s banking system remains insulated from the Western banking meltdown.
• Booming Agrarian economy, despite devastating floods; with corporate sector moving into dairy, live-stock and value added processing.
• While most of the rest of the world is ageing our population is getting younger
• Democracy is still holding on!
However, we are far from the country we all aspire. The negative list (so to speak) is long, makes a somber reading, but largely includes:
• Lack of governance and transparency (lack of meritocracy).
• Unrelenting and crippling energy shortages.
• Lack of Scale/infrastructure to support GDP growth.
• Security and Law and order situation (Perception twice as worse as reality with the reality bad enough especially in Karachi and Quetta)
• Weak Social Sector reforms/indicators.
• Increasing friction amongst state institutions.
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... the economic and social sector performance of Pakistan has also been severely impacted by the following:
1) Inability of the successive governments to balance their budgets by increasing tax to GDP ratio, reducing non-development expenses and losses of the Public sector enterprises.
2) Negligible expenditures on education and health sectors to develop our most important asset i.e. human resource.
3) Creating a competitive environment of high economic growth by focusing on the productive sectors of our economy such as agriculture and manufacturing, and
4) Focusing on infrastructure and energy sectors to facilitate the economic growth.
Whereas, we have seen efforts in the past to address these weaknesses they have been at best weak and far between.
The present economic scenario is again infected by the same weaknesses i.e. large fiscal deficits, low expenditure on education and health, chronic electricity and energy shortages, lack of focus on the productive sectors resulting in high inflation, high unemployment and low economic growth. We all want a Pakistan which is economically prosperous, institutionally resilient and strategically oriented. In essence, we want to make Pakistan an economic welfare state. In my view, a key pre-requisite for an Economic Welfare State is to ensure that a country experiences equitable and sustainable growth for a prolonged period of time. Look at the examples of India and China where uninterrupted economic growth has changes the whole value proposition of these countries.
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To reduce our fiscal deficit we will have to increase our taxes. As I have said it many a times, all incomes will have to pay taxes and there cannot be any sacred cows. Agriculturists will have to pay their taxes and so should the retailers, real-estate developers stock-market and all professionals. Our tax to GDP is woefully inadequate at 9pc, where Sri Lanka is 17pc, India 19pc, China 21pc and Turkey 33pc. Before I left the government, there was a tax plan in place, which needs to be implemented. It will require a strong political will.....
Economic challenges for Pakistan going into 2013 | The Nation
Despite all the gloomy news and events that has started to define Pakistan, our national resilience remains intact. However, the question that is one every one’s mind is for how long?
Let’s start with the positives (yes there are always some!) of Present Day Pakistan;
• CP Inflation while high is showing signs of becoming range bound;
• Foreign Remittances continue to rise (the PRI scheme launched under my stewardship has borne fruit with remittances expected to cross the $l2b annual mark this year);
• We have finally started to debate/define our role in the devastating ‘War on Terror” and the end game of Afghan conflict has started to be played out.
• Pakistan’s banking system remains insulated from the Western banking meltdown.
• Booming Agrarian economy, despite devastating floods; with corporate sector moving into dairy, live-stock and value added processing.
• While most of the rest of the world is ageing our population is getting younger
• Democracy is still holding on!
However, we are far from the country we all aspire. The negative list (so to speak) is long, makes a somber reading, but largely includes:
• Lack of governance and transparency (lack of meritocracy).
• Unrelenting and crippling energy shortages.
• Lack of Scale/infrastructure to support GDP growth.
• Security and Law and order situation (Perception twice as worse as reality with the reality bad enough especially in Karachi and Quetta)
• Weak Social Sector reforms/indicators.
• Increasing friction amongst state institutions.
---
... the economic and social sector performance of Pakistan has also been severely impacted by the following:
1) Inability of the successive governments to balance their budgets by increasing tax to GDP ratio, reducing non-development expenses and losses of the Public sector enterprises.
2) Negligible expenditures on education and health sectors to develop our most important asset i.e. human resource.
3) Creating a competitive environment of high economic growth by focusing on the productive sectors of our economy such as agriculture and manufacturing, and
4) Focusing on infrastructure and energy sectors to facilitate the economic growth.
Whereas, we have seen efforts in the past to address these weaknesses they have been at best weak and far between.
The present economic scenario is again infected by the same weaknesses i.e. large fiscal deficits, low expenditure on education and health, chronic electricity and energy shortages, lack of focus on the productive sectors resulting in high inflation, high unemployment and low economic growth. We all want a Pakistan which is economically prosperous, institutionally resilient and strategically oriented. In essence, we want to make Pakistan an economic welfare state. In my view, a key pre-requisite for an Economic Welfare State is to ensure that a country experiences equitable and sustainable growth for a prolonged period of time. Look at the examples of India and China where uninterrupted economic growth has changes the whole value proposition of these countries.
------------
To reduce our fiscal deficit we will have to increase our taxes. As I have said it many a times, all incomes will have to pay taxes and there cannot be any sacred cows. Agriculturists will have to pay their taxes and so should the retailers, real-estate developers stock-market and all professionals. Our tax to GDP is woefully inadequate at 9pc, where Sri Lanka is 17pc, India 19pc, China 21pc and Turkey 33pc. Before I left the government, there was a tax plan in place, which needs to be implemented. It will require a strong political will.....
Economic challenges for Pakistan going into 2013 | The Nation