Pakistan’s Economic Growth Will Reach 5.0% Per Year: WELT 2020

[Shahzaz ud din]

Pakistan’s Economic Growth Will Reach 5.0% Per Year: WELT 2020
Posted 7 mins ago by Jehangir Nasir

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  The latest edition of the World Economic League Table or the WELT 2020 has been released which is produced by international economic forecasters, the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).
  
  WELT tracks the size of different economies across the globe and projects changes over the next 15 years, up to 2034.
  
  In 2019, among 193 countries, Pakistan’s economic position was 44th while the US is first, China second, Japan third, Germany fourth and India’s fifth. The report stated that between 2019 and 2034, Pakistan will move from 44th place to 50th place in the World Economic League Table.
  
  It stated that Pakistan had a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $5,872 in 2019, making it a lower-middle-income country. The economy of Pakistan has carried its momentum from last year, with GDP increasing 3.3% in 2019, down from 5.5% in 2018.
  
  It highlighted that Pakistan’s growth coincides with the country’s clear objective of cutting down political corruption and increasing overall confidence in the country’s economic future. The unemployment rate, on the other hand, remained steady at 6.1% in 2019.
  
  The weakness of the labor market stands in contrast with the strong performance of the overall economy and suggests that successfully decreasing the rate of unemployment could help to transition the country into an even higher growth path.
  
  Per capita incomes have increased steadily over the last few years, with a robust rate of economic expansion coupled with a low rate of population growth, which has averaged just 1.9% per year between 2014 and 2019. Between 2020 and 2025, CEBR forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will rise to an average of 4.2%.
  
  
  
  Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected to accelerate further to an average of 5.0% per year.
  In last year’s report, CEBR had declared Pakistan 37th in 2028 and 27th in 2033.
  
  It also highlighted that in 2019, the USA accounted for 24.8% of the world’s GDP, its largest share of the world economy since 2007. And the US is now expected to remain the world’s largest economy throughout the 2020s and will be overtaken by China only in 2033.
  
  You can read the report here.
  
  Jehangir Nasir
  

 

[Pakistani Fighter]

The report stated that between 2019 and 2034, Pakistan will move from 44th place to 50th place in the World Economic League Table.

Why down?

 

[The Accountant]

Based on current downfall in GDP growth. Once we get back on track all these forecast will be revised.

 

[Syed1.]

Lol so we will fall from 44 to 50 despite a rapidly accelerating economy? Something is off in the report

 

[PakSword]

Based on current downfall in GDP growth. Once we get back on track all these forecast will be revised.

All forecasts have started getting revised already lolll...

 

[PakSword]

Lol so we will fall from 44 to 50 despite a rapidly accelerating economy? Something is off in the report

If we grow @ 5% and other economies are assumed to outpace us.

This forecast will also be revised in a couple of years time in shaa Allah.

Pakistan will achieve more than 7% growth in the coming years.. and this estimate is not considering fully operational CPEC, Rekodiq extraction and other natural resources that will be used in producing electricity. I was against coal usage for electricity production, but now I say fvck everyone, Pakistan, despite not producing too many green house gases, is still in the top 10 of the worst hit countries from global warming.. The countries which are responsible for the most emission are not listening to the cries of the affected countries.. then why should we care about them? Just like because of other countries, we are getting affected, because of us, others will be affected. Only in Haryana in India, Indian farmers burn 35 million tons of crop waste in late September/ October every year. It affects our cities in Punjab, people get sick from respiratory diseases and our overall health expenditure increases. I say fvck everyone and let our natural resource help us producing cheap electricity.. so much so that it becomes so cheap for the automobiles that people start buying electric vehicles.. The effects of this coal burning will be cancelled out by less use of petrol/ diesel vehicles, it will save us billions of dollars petrol bill every year, and the most important benefit.. we are able to produce electric vehicles in Pakistan as it is not a rocket science (like petrol/ diesel engines)...

Problem with these kind of statistics is that they don't take into consideration the ongoing plans and future projects of a country.

 

[Indos]

Here the report: https://cebr.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/World-Economic-League-Table-Report-2020-Final.pdf

 

[YeBeWarned]

I think the forecast changes with time and major Economic decisions . Things will start to change by Mid-End 2020 .

 

[Shahzaz ud din]

Lol so we will fall from 44 to 50 despite a rapidly accelerating economy? Something is off in the report

It is based on current exchange rate.If Pak will grow 5% naturally the rupee will appreciate as well against the dollar.
Currently Pakistan GDP in 2019 is $ 284.21 billions at exchange rate of PKR 160.If today exchange rate comes down to PKR 140 the PAK GDP is $324 billions bigger than the BD.
Most important thing is that soon the GDP rebasing will happen.Last time when the GDP was rebased in 2006 there was no significant jump in the economy size – In FY06, on 2000 base, nominal GDP was Rs7.6 trillion ( $127bn) and on new base the same year GDP was revised up to Rs8.2 trillion ($137bn). The 7 percent jump in GDP in FY06 due to rebasing is much less than what is guesstimated at 25 percent at least by economists for future rebasing.

 

[Wikki019]

5% will not be sufficient if we have to compete with other countries

 

[HammerHead081]

5% will not be sufficient if we have to compete with other countries

We don't need to. GDP growth rate ranging b/w 4%-6% is perfectly fine. If its anymore then it leads to widening of inequality gap between the rich and the poor.

 

[bête noire]

Why down?

Good news, WELT 2021 states PK will go up to 36th position from current 45th to 48th position.

Here the report: https://cebr.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/World-Economic-League-Table-Report-2020-Final.pdf

Seems Indonesia is set to become 5th to 4th largest by 2040, matching their population size.

Source: https://cebr.com/service/macroeconomic-forecasting/

 

[Indos]

Good news, WELT 2021 states PK will go up to 36th position from current 45th to 48th position.
View attachment 700043


Seems Indonesia is set to become 5th to 4th largest by 2040, matching their population size.

Source: https://cebr.com/service/macroeconomic-forecasting/

Thanks for the new data. Wow time runs so fast. The GDP growth is made by the assumption of constant currency value. If future economic growth really happens as the prediction then it depends on the currency value then to determine the future nominal GDP.

 

[Dr-who]

Good news, WELT 2021 states PK will go up to 36th position from current 45th to 48th position.
View attachment 700043


Seems Indonesia is set to become 5th to 4th largest by 2040, matching their population size.

Source: https://cebr.com/service/macroeconomic-forecasting/

How come indonesia doubled it's gdp from 2005 to 2010?

 

[Indos]

How come indonesia doubled it's gdp from 2005 to 2010?

A combination of 6 percent economic growth and better currency price. For your information before 1997, Indonesian Rupiah value is 2.500 per 1 USD and in 1998 it becomes 16.000 per 1 USD (Asian Financial Crisis with Indonesia become the worst victim). From 2005-2010 the currency is getting better and it is valued around 12.000 per 1 USD.

Currency value is very importan to determine nominal GDP figure. Just another example in opposite way, Indonesia nominal GDP actually has reached almost 1 trillion USD in 2012 but we can only pass the one trillion ceiling in 2017 despite we grow around 5-5.5 percent during that period. It is the effect of ASEAN -China FTA that make our trade balance negative and affect our currency. Rupiah is traded freely and it is why it can get affected if we have deficit current account. The actual real growth increase during 2012-2017 period can be better seen by using GDP PPP basis. Today Rupiah is valued at 14.400 per 1 USD. Our trade balance is getting better alhamdulillah since 2019 and along 2020 we have surplus every months.