Pakistan's decision to suspend trade relations unlikely to harm India

[HAIDER]

Good news for Pakistani farmers and industry.

 

[IndoCarib]

Yeah. Pink salt and air route block would be enough to make india request Pakistan again. All options available

going to hurt Pakistan equally. Countries earn revenue by sharing air space

http://multimedia.scmp.com/news/world/article/2165980/flight-paths/index.html

Many countries use airspace fees as a form of revenue and, sometimes, as a form of leverage during political negotiations. This causes prices and routes to fluctuate, with airlines subject to different policies. Costs are, of course, transferred to travellers, while airspace restrictions can significantly limit the options available to certain destinations.

 

[Nothing]

Things will go on either via Dubai like most of the trade and through border smuggling. We underestimate the need of common people. When they hit the reality of bringing "bread on the table", they find a way to get it.
Anyway, trade is going on via Dubai for so long, that is not going away.

 

[Kabira]

India will not be harmed even if Pakistan drop nuclear bomb on Delhi.

Things will go on either via Dubai like most of the trade and through border smuggling. We underestimate the need of common people. When they hit the reality of bringing "bread on the table", they find a way to get it.
Anyway, trade is going on via Dubai for so long, that is not going away.

Too bad this gov is more serious then any previous one when it comes to smuggling via sea ports or land border.

 

[Aasimkhan]

• Pak on Wednesday expelled Indian High Commissioner and suspended bilateral trade with India after special status for J&K got scrapped
• Major reason for the nominal impact of trade suspension on Indian economy is that a large part of the trade between the countries takes place through informal route

New Delhi: Although Pakistan on Wednesday announced it would suspend trade relations with India, the move would have "very minimal" impact on India's overall trade scenario and its bussinesses.

Pakistan's top civil and military leadership on Wednesday decided to expel Indian High Commissioner Ajay Bisaria and suspend bilateral trade with India in the wake of New Delhi's move to revoke special status for Jammu and Kashmir.

The major reason for the nominal impact of the trade suspension on India's businesses and economy is that a large part of the trade between the two countries takes place through the informal route, which means that the trade takes place through a third country.

Similarly, the informal imports by India from its western neighbour was recorded at $721 million in 2012-13 and the latest formal imports (2018-19), is well short of that level at $494.8 million, showed the report.

Informal trade has continued to increase as the formal route has seen its ups and downs in the recent past. Such module of trade is not included in the national income. Countries sometimes choose informal trade route also to avoid high tariff and trade restrictions.

In the case of two countries, India-UAE-Pakistan is the primary channel for informal trading. In this process, trade is recorded between India and UAE and between Pakistan and UAE, but is not directly recorded between India and Pakistan.

As per a recent report by Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), the total exports from India to Pakistan in the financial year 2018-2019 was around $2 billion. But the latest data of informal exports as per the ICRIER report which goes back to 2012-13, was $3.9 billion, nearly twice the current value of formal exports.

According to the 2012-2013 data, the items primary informally exported from India were jewellery, textiles, machinery and machine parts and electronic appliances among others. On the other hand, India's informal imports from Pakistan consisted of textiles, dried fruits, spices, carpets among others.

The major items exported by India through the formal route include chemical products and textiles among others, and the formally imported items include mineral products and vegetable items.

Further, we can also see major contrast between the economies of the two countries. As of now the size of India economy has grown to around $2900 billion. On the other hand, the size of Pakistan's economy is about $273 billion.

Pakistan's Economic Survey 2018-19, showed that the country's GDP grew at only 3.3 per cent in the fiscal year 2018-19. On the other hand, India's GDP grew at 6.8 per cent during the fiscal year 2018-19. However, the Indian economy is still much bigger than Pakistan. The size of Indian economy is $2,900 billion, almost nine times larger than Pakistan.

In terms of foreign exchange reserves, too Pakistan is in dilapidated condition with forex reserves of around $17.4 billion, compared to India $420 billion forex reserve.

Given the situation, it is highly unlikely that the trade suspension between the two countries would in any major way impact India and its businesses. Further, India already has revoked the Most Favoured Nation tag given to Pakistan, which snatches away the trade benefits Pakistan used to get.

https://www.livemint.com/news/india...ons-unlikely-to-harm-india-1565198216921.html

If we nuke India at 30 places what will be impact on indian economy? Can anyone quantify it in dollar terms ?

 

[Psychic]

With this approach looks like India might take Azad Kashmir

Yes it might take Azad Kashmir as our soldiers there are armed with water guns.

 

[khansaheeb]

There are 2 things that will impact India if Pakistan plays its card properly..

1 - IK continues his policy of policy of tolerance and inclusiveness with opening Hindu shrine of Kashmir and Karpur corridor for Indians...That will show Pakistan in contrasting position wrt India in front of global audience and play to their soft power

2- work with US and offer something in Afganstan and pressurize India

Apart from these 2 things, nothing will impact us...except initiation of full blown war..

Full blown war is highly unlikely and not desirable, but we have a lot of other options. Remember we defeated the soviet Union in Afghanistan without declaring war and India compared to the Soviet Union is just an over sized cow.

 

[batmannow]

There are 2 things that will impact India if Pakistan plays its card properly..

1 - IK continues his policy of policy of tolerance and inclusiveness with opening Hindu shrine of Kashmir and Karpur corridor for Indians...That will show Pakistan in contrasting position wrt India in front of global audience and play to their soft power

2- work with US and offer something in Afganstan and pressurize India

Apart from these 2 things, nothing will impact us...except initiation of full blown war..

No the best option is a a simple open every kind of support to freedom fighters in kashmir and let it known to world specilly UK and USA others thy don't care much and Thts all bt it will happen only when all this Indian actions were never negiciated by usa and Thts why imran khan has to tell in front of NA, Tht he hadn't have tht information?
Let's see what he says thn bt as we living in the eara of wiki leaks, it will be cheaked so ma gus is he won't say anything, all these measures he is taking after 4 days Jst to show public and let them clam down nothin else

 

[nahtanbob]

India will not be harmed even if Pakistan drop nuclear bomb on Delhi.

i dunno about that

 

[AZ1]

If we nuke India at 30 places what will be impact on indian economy? Can anyone quantify it in dollar terms ?

whole india start doing toilet on streets no time calculating impact on economy.

 

[IndoCarib]

If we nuke India at 30 places what will be impact on indian economy? Can anyone quantify it in dollar terms ?

Nuking even one city is not in Pakistan's interest. You will cease to exist on the maps

 

[Aasimkhan]

Nuking even one city is not in Pakistan's interest. You will cease to exist on the maps

You will also cease to exist. If we die we have 45 countries to carry forward name of Allah. Who will drink piss cola after Hindustan ceases to exist

 

[Kabira]

Nuking even one city is not in Pakistan's interest. You will cease to exist on the maps

And you also. Lol

 

[Verve]

There are 2 things that will impact India if Pakistan plays its card properly..

1 - IK continues his policy of policy of tolerance and inclusiveness with opening Hindu shrine of Kashmir and Karpur corridor for Indians...That will show Pakistan in contrasting position wrt India in front of global audience and play to their soft power

2- work with US and offer something in Afganstan and pressurize India

Apart from these 2 things, nothing will impact us...except initiation of full blown war..

A limited war in Kashmir along with insurgency in other parts of India will hurt India's economy. Foreign investment takes into factor the various risks and country risk will go up significantly. How long do you think that companies like IBM etc will keep their global support systems in India?

Pakistan has low FDI so the impact will be far far less.

 

[Kaniska]

A limited war in Kashmir along with insurgency in other parts of India will hurt India's economy. Foreign investment takes into factor the various risks and country risk will go up significantly. How long do you think that companies like IBM etc will keep their global support systems in India?

Pakistan has low FDI so the impact will be far far less.

I agree with you...Actually, the nation with better economy is always at risk of loosing more than otherway around..