Pakistan, US agree on new Afghan set-up - India retreating?

[ajpirzada]

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

News Analysis By Absar Alam

ISLAMABAD: A strategic shift in Pakistan’s three-decade old Afghan policy has taken a quiet but effective shape as Islamabad has successfully negotiated a peace plan with Mustafa Zahir Shah, the grandson of late King Zahir Shah, who would play a key role in future political dispensation comprising all ethnic groups. “It is a strategic coup by Pakistan against rising Indian influence in Afghanistan,” an analyst tartly remarked commenting on the development. As Islamabad has agreed to untangle the complicated jihadist network fabricated by General Ziaul Haq in 1979, it has acquired ‘iron-clad’ guarantees from Washington and other world capitals to gain advantages not only in regional political and economic affairs but also to get peaceful nuclear technology related benefits, sources privy to the most significant development taking place in the region in more than quarter a century, claimed.

Prime Minister Gilani’s spokesperson Shabbir Anwar, when contacted, said Pakistan wanted peace in Afghanistan. “We will do whatever we can in strengthening of the political institutions in Afghanistan.”

Anwar, however, said the Foreign Office would be in a better position to comment on such a development. The foreign office spokesman could not be reached despite repeated attempts as his cell phone was switched off.

“Karzai is fast becoming a seat-warmer for Mustafa Zahir Shah,” a diplomat commented. “But the young leader will have to perform a very complicated balancing act by satisfying both sides of the ethnic divides in the world’s one of the least governable countries.”

To continue to have a political foothold in Afghanistan and counter Pakistan’s thriving liaison with Mustafa Zahir Shah and the Northern Alliance, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh went to Saudi Arabia to get help in establishing contacts with Taliban. Saudi Arabia reportedly has refused to oblige.

According to the clinched deal, Islamabad would help cobble together a consensus political dispensation in Kabul comprising all ethnic groups, help ensure its stability, dismantle the dreaded militant infrastructure and carefully comb its security apparatus to avert the rise of radicalism. On all counts, Pakistan has already started delivering and brick-by-brick demolition of Jehadi infrastructure has already set in motion. A high-level Pakistani delegation held a final round of negotiations with Mustafa Zahir Shah and Northern Alliance in Kabul a couple of weeks ago.

Islamabad’s diplomatic circles are abuzz with this new, exciting development taking shape during the last few weeks. “To convince Mustafa Zahir Shah to lead, and make the leaderships of Northern Alliance and Taliban share power among themselves is a major breakthrough successfully engineered by Pakistan to reclaim its lost position in Afghanistan,” the sources said.

In addition to winning over the confidence of Mustafa Zahir Shah, the weaning off Northern Alliance from India is the most important milestone in Pakistan’s foreign policy as ties between the two sides had been strained for Islamabad’s tilt towards Taliban. As final touches are being given to level the rough contours of this win-win policy, the diplomatic sources in Islamabad are attributing great significance to the sudden dash of Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani to Kabul over the weekend.

In return for the success of this policy, the sources claimed, Washington has given guarantees to Islamabad that it would support Pakistan’s efforts to buy nuclear power plants from France for peaceful purposes, limit India’s political role in Afghanistan and Pakistan would have the right to buy oil and gas on less-than-market price from the proposed oil and gas pipelines originating from Central Asia and Afghanistan to India. The royalty that Pakistan would earn on these energy pipelines passing through its territory would be in addition to the above benefits.

DG ISPR Maj-Gen Athar Abbas, when contacted to ask if Pakistani officials were engaged in negotiating such an understanding with the help of the US and the Nato in return for political and economic benefits of the country, he said: “It is a political issue and I have no comments”.

When asked about the high level contacts between Pakistani officials and Mustafa Zahir Shah and Northern Alliance leaders, Abbas said: “Not to my knowledge.” The arrests of top Taliban commanders from Mulla Abdul Ghani Baradar two weeks ago to Abu Yehya Gadan over the weekend is a testament to Islamabad’s sincere commitment with this new approach.

In his weekend visit Gen Kayani met Afghan President Hamid Karzai to, what the sources said, discuss his role, if any, in the new setup. Almost a week prior to Kayani’s visit to Kabul, a high-level delegation comprising officials who have been handling the Afghan strategy for decades, visited Kabul and met Mustafa to finalise the future peace plan for Afghanistan. The success has been reached following a series of behind-the-scene meetings in and outside Pakistan between Pakistani officials, Mustafa Zahir Shah, Saudi and US officials, and key leaders of Northern Alliance who have earlier been sceptical of Islamabad’s intentions.

The difference this time would be that Pakistan would ensure the acceptance of this new formula both by the Northern Alliance and Taliban with Mustafa Zahir Shah leading the brood. Sources claimed that the new plan would guarantee Pakistan’s political and economic interests in the region as well as the existence of a peaceful Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the US and the Nato troops.

The sources claimed that the establishment is quite serious now in reigning in radical elements who have been creating difficulties for Pakistan in the past. “Now they will not be given a free hand anymore and the elements within the establishment supporting such ideologies and activities would be sidelined in the next round of promotions starting from next month,” source said.

Pakistan, US agree on new Afghan set-up

 

[Creder]

sir you bring great news

 

[ajpirzada]

this is major news. and this can lead to a peaceful afghanistan. glad to know that we have given up our stance of only supporting taliban.

 

[Creder]

this is major news. and this can lead to a peaceful afghanistan. glad to know that we have given up our stance of only supporting taliban.

well its more of a letting the talibs mellow in the government stance... i doubt pak would agree to a complete disbanding of talibs unless they knew for sure that they posed a threat to Pakistans own security...but talibs or no talibs Pakistan must hold Afghanistan at all costs...its way too critical for us

 

[ajpirzada]

such a set-up will be in the interest of this whole region. unless international community accept both taliban and northern alliance, there wont be any peace. this is best thing which can happen to a country which has seen only wars or civil wars in last few decades.
its gud we have increased our interaction with northern alliance and have accepted their power. all we need is a friendly Afghanistan which does not allow anyone to use her soil for anti pakistan activities. their being friendly to india is no loss to us.

 

[SparklingCrescent]

hmmmmmmm.. finally feels better.. some steam has risen from my brain after reading your previous post... very nice to here...

 

[Hammy007]

peaceful afghanistan makes peaceful pakistan, and makes army less worried on the western pak border, extremism and drug trade, smuggling and refugees are a burden on pakistan.

pak should also convince US to vacate afghanistan as soon as possible after forming a stable govt there.

 

[hero]

well its more of a letting the talibs mellow in the government stance... i doubt pak would agree to a complete disbanding of talibs unless they knew for sure that they posed a threat to Pakistans own security...but talibs or no talibs Pakistan must hold Afghanistan at all costs...its way too critical for us

Can I know the reason? whats benefit for pakistan.

Let them live their own life. If possible involve in development or stay away. They suffered enough.

 

[pkd]

Petraeus on ‘strategic depth’ Islamabad stand gets tacit US endorsement

WASHINGTON, March 8: The US general who oversees the Afghan war has acknowledged that Pakistan has a reason to be concerned about its lack of strategic depth.
In two television interviews this weekend, Gen. David Petraeus also said that the Pakistani “security forces, have put a lot of short sticks into a lot of hornets’ nests over the course of that last 10 months” and they needed to consolidate their gains in those areas before taking up new operations.

Pakistan “has an interest that is somewhat different than ours, and that is their strategic depth and always has been for a country that’s very narrow and has its historic enemy to its east,” he told the PBS television.

“So again, we just have to appreciate this. The Pakistani army, the Frontier Corps, the security forces have put a lot of short sticks into a lot of hornets’ nests over the course of that last 10 months,” he told CNN.

“There’s a limit to how much you can do that without consolidating the gains in some areas and then, over time, as I mentioned, thinning out to enable you to go into other areas.” The statements are an apparent endorsement of Islamabad’s position on two important issues: Pakistan has genuine interests in Afghanistan which need to be protected and Pakistan cannot send its troops to North Waziristan before consolidating its gains in South Waziristan and Swat.

Gen. Petraeus, as head of the US Central Command, is responsible for America’s war efforts in the greater Middle East region, which stretches from Syria to Pakistan. His endorsement of Pakistan’s positions indicates a positive change in the Pentagon towards Islamabad.

The change is also reflected in similar statements by other US officials, recognising Pakistan’s recent achievements in the war against terror, particularly the arrest of half a dozen senior Afghan Taliban leaders.

In his interview to CNN, Gen. Petraeus also emphasised Pakistan’s need for “leaving behind a sustainable security, a sustainable economic and social, political situation” in the areas where it has already sent its troops. “So that you wouldn’t have to go back there in the future, but it’s something that can be sustained just by the forces that have been left behind.” To PBS, the general said Pakistan and the US had the same interest in Afghanistan in not allowing Al Qaeda to re-establish safe havens. “But Pakistan also has an interest that is somewhat different than ours, and that is their strategic depth,” he added.

“This is not unique, of course, just to Afghanistan and Pakistan and throughout the world. We have interests, they have interests. What we want to do is find the conversion interest, understand where they are divergent and try to make progress together.” Gen. Petraeus also pointed to the Pakistani government’s realisation that internal extremists were directly threatening its existence. “That has been a very impressive counter-insurgency operation,” he said of Pakistani military forces’ gains made against insurgents in Swat Valley.

Pakistan’s leaders, Gen. Petraeus said, were realising the truth of Defence Secretary Robert Gates’ assertion that Taliban, Al Qaeda and other extremists operating in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region share a symbiotic relationship and belonged to a syndicate of terrorism that threatened all law-abiding nations.

The US military commander also underlined America’s decisions not to walk away from Pakistan while talking about Islamabad’s reluctance to fully support Washington’s strategy for the Pak-Afghan region.

“But, again, look, we have a chequered past with Pakistan, and we need to be up front about it and recognise it. We’ve walked away from that country three different times, including after Charlie Wilson’s war after we established the Mujahideen,” he said.

In the same interview, the Centcom chief also mentioned that the US helped ISI create the extremists who were now threatening both countries.

“Our money, Saudi money, others joined together, helped the ISI, indeed, form these elements which then went in and threw the Soviets out of Afghanistan with our weaponry. And then we left and they were holding the bag,” he said.

washington, march 8: the us general who oversees the afghan war has acknowl- edged that pakistan has a rea- son to be concerned about its lack of strategic depth. in two television interviews this weekend, gen. david petraeus also said that the pakistani “security forces, have put a lot of short sticks into a lot of hornets’ nests over the course of that last 10 months” and they needed to consolidate their gains in those areas before taking up new operations. pakistan “has an interest that is somewhat different than ours, and that is their strategic depth and always has been for a country that’s very narrow and has its histor- ic enemy to its east,” he told the pbs television. “so again, we just have to appreciate this. the pakistani army, the frontier corps, the security forces have put a lot of short sticks into a lot of hor- nets’ nests over the course of that last 10 months,” he told cnn. “there’s a limit to how much you can do that without consolidating the gains in some areas and then, over time, as i mentioned, thinning out to enable you to go into other areas.” the statements are an ap- parent endorsement of islamabad’s position on two important issues: pakistan has genuine interests in afghanistan which need to be protected and pakistan can- not send its troops to north waziristan before consolidat- ing its gains in south waziristan and swat. gen. petraeus, as head of the us central command, is responsible for america’s war efforts in the greater middle east region, which stretches from syria to pakistan. his endorsement of pakistan’s po- sitions indicates a positive change in the pentagon to- wards islamabad. the change is also reflec- ted in similar statements by other us officials, recognis- ing pakistan’s recent achieve- ments in the war against ter- ror, particularly the arrest of half a dozen senior afghan taliban leaders. in his interview to cnn, gen. petraeus also emphas- ised pakistan’s need for “leaving behind a sustainable security, a sustainable eco- nomic and social, political sit- uation” in the areas where it has already sent its troops. “so that you wouldn’t have to go back there in the future, but it’s something that can be sustained just by the forces that have been left behind.” to pbs, the general said pakistan and the us had the same interest in afghanistan in not allowing al qaeda to re-establish safe havens. “but pakistan also has an interest that is somewhat different than ours, and that is their strategic depth,” he added. “this is not unique, of course, just to afghanistan and pakistan and throughout the world. we have interests, they have interests. what we want to do is find the conver- sion interest, understand where they are divergent and try to make progress togeth- er.” gen. petraeus also pointed to the pakistani government’s realisation that internal ex- tremists were directly threat- ening its existence. “that has been a very impressive coun- ter-insurgency operation,” he said of pakistani military forces’ gains made against in- surgents in swat valley. pakistan’s leaders, gen. petraeus said, were realising the truth of defence secretary robert gates’ assertion that taliban, al qaeda and other extremists operating in the afghanistan-pakistan region share a symbiotic relationship and belonged to a syndicate of terrorism that threatened all law-abiding nations. the us military command- er also underlined america’s decisions not to walk away from pakistan while talking about islamabad’s reluctance to fully support washington’s strategy for the pak-afghan region. “but, again, look, we have a chequered past with pakistan, and we need to be up front about it and recog- nise it. we’ve walked away from that country three dif- ferent times, including after charlie wilson’s war after we established the mujahideen,” he said. in the same interview, the centcom chief also men- tioned that the us helped isi create the extremists who were now threatening both countries. “our money, saudi money, others joined together, hel- ped the isi, indeed, form these elements which then went in and threw the soviets out of afghanistan with our weaponry. and then we left and they were holding the bag,” he said.

 

[asq]

It is time to sing a peace song, and who else to sing it but Yousaf Islam, so here it is for peace.

 

[Rank]

Any one of you watch Gen Patris Program on US TV channel ? he said that Pakistan did more thn thr limitations now its enough something like that WHY US support Pakistan now ? because they lost DEADLY WAR in Afghanistan.

Its old strategy of US first invade + Strike try to win war but if they lost then American start partnership with those (whom against US invade).


India will never ever become a regional power. Because become a regional power country need regional support which India dont have China and Pakistan the main player. Fact is PAKISTAN is MIDDLE OF THIS REGION and we are not support India on anyway. Without Pakistan approval even US cant do anything (same like Afghanistan) technically. Before start war on Afghanistan US deal with Pakistan and Pakistan's intellgnce agencies becauase WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE without our support noone cant do anything and if anyone do anything so never sucess atleast never achieve full of goals.

So if US want to stay in this region US must need PAKISTAN and Pakistan support. Remember Pakistan govt is nuthing. In pakistan establishment "MILITARY" Key for US. Now its a time to deal with US "For State of the Art weapon" US use us for thr goals why not we use them ?? its a time same like 9/11 to ask for State of the Art weapon. If India start crying i bet US will not listen them remember we are middle in this region India dont have much importance for Countries like USA, RUSSIA and CHINA. We are more important for everycountry because of our STRATEGIC LOCATION.

We will become more powerfull thn anycountry if we have leadership unfortuntly we dont have but thats the time to make big deals.

Thanks,
my opinion.

 

[jarnee]

New Delhi: India plans to scale down its operations in Afghanistan and will advice its citizens in that country to return home, sources in the government have told CNN-IBN.

The government is considering paring down its presence at reconstruction projects in Afghanistan. Projects underway may be wrapped up quickly and there may be even a freeze on undertaking new projects.

Apart from the embassy in Kabul, the work of consulates in Herat, Kandahar, Mazar-e-Sharif and Jalalabad may also be scaled down.

CNN-IBN learns the precarious security situation in Afghanistan--highlighted by the terrorist attacks targeting Indians in Kabul on February 26--is prompting a gradual but significant rethink in New Delhi.

The government has been forced to think to rethink its Afghanistan policy because of the precarious security situation in that country. Indian officials acknowledge that the political and military situation has deteriorated in Afghanistan.

Taliban terrorists, who are suspected to have had the support of Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence, had targeted the Indian embassy twice in the past. On July 7, 2008, 60 people, including four Indians--one IFS official and a brigadier-ranked official were killed in the attack, while on October 8 last year, four ITBP jawans were among those injured.
India plans retreat from Afghanistan after attacks

Pakistan can claim this as victory!! but there could be more to what meets the eye.

 

[Spring Onion]

Jarnee dont add words from your brain. When India played a dirty card by killing Pakistani civilians, now it has to be cautious about its presence.

But main point is we never trust India what it says so we are in no hurry terming it as a victory.

Relex and sit back and wait for the outcome of the recent talks between Afghan fighters, NATO/US and Pakistan.


On the other hand Iran has jumped in too so India can now ride on the back of Iran for some role in Afghanistan

 

[ameer219]

Pakistan can claim this as victory!! but there could be more to what meets the eye.

I think India is doing itself a favour. Think about it in another perspective, Already USA is planning to bring out troops in 2011 and USA I estimated about a Trillion waste on this war, and if India takes over trying to stabilize the country, it would affect your growing economy.This is how I see it, compared to other Pakistanis.

 

[ek_indian]

@Jana:

Jarnee dont add words from your brain. When India played a dirty card by killing Pakistani civilians, now it has to be cautious about its presence.

I would like to have some links in support of above.

But main point is we never trust India what it says so we are in no hurry terming it as a victory.

This is both ways. India does not trust Pakistan and Pakistan does not trust India.

Relex and sit back and wait for the outcome of the recent talks between Afghan fighters, NATO/US and Pakistan.

On the other hand Iran has jumped in too so India can now ride on the back of Iran for some role in Afghanistan

India is not engaged in any war there. So it is not direct party of any talk show. However I agree with you on wait and watch thing.