Al-zakir
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Kashmir Watch, Jan 13
(i)- Karzai's visit to India has changed strategic scenario of the region (ii)- Pakistan faces military expeditions from both (eastern and western side) (iii)- Retrieving the territory of and not selective strikes in Pakistani side of Kashmir will be India's option (iii)- India preparing itself for EVEN nuclear war (iv)- India will ultimately try for "Federation of Secular Democratic SAARC Countries" (v)- India's this entire initiative will suit US policies with Obama in White House.
By Hem Raj Jain
The way Pakistani leadership is lulling Pakistan into spending its entire time and energy on merely tackling the issue of handing over the Pakistani accomplice (12 as per India) in Mumbai terror attack of November 26, 2008 - without comprehending the impending martial challenges from India - is bizarre to say the least.
Pakistan should understand the following backdrop of the contemporary situation:-
(1)- India understands that the terrorism in India is mainly due to 'Islamic terrorism' from Pakistan (due to unresolved Kashmir problem) and which has emboldened even such terrorists from Bangladesh (like HUJI etc. who draw disproportionately higher criticism from the people of India due to about 30 million Bangladeshi refugees which Bangladesh has refused to take back and which has created serious political and law & order problems in India, especially in north � east India).
(2)- Though neither it is the first terror attack in India nor are the numbers of people killed in Mumbai terror attack unprecedented. But the reason why emotions in India are aroused to such an unprecedented level after most audacious Mumbai terror attack (coupled with foreigners killed in this terror attack) is that the people of India has some how come to believe that it is now or never.
(3)- But India knows that notwithstanding whatever international support and pressure from India to bring these 12 terrorists to justice, Pakistan (as presently the avowed position of Pakistan government) will not only never hand over these 12 terrorists to India but Pakistan will also not be able to bring these 12 terrorists to justice (which is nothing less than death sentence) through judiciary of Pakistan.
(4)- Therefore India further believes that India will have to exercise military option to not only bring these 12 terrorists to justice but also to solve, once and for all, this problem of 'Islamic terrorism in' India. This can be achieved not by selective strikes in Pakistani side of Kashmir but by retrieving this territory (especially given the fact and realization that in both the cases it is bound to escalate to full fledged war between India and Pakistan and which will ultimately culminate into Indo � Pak nuclear war, if world community does not immediately bring nukes of India and Pakistan under its control).
(5)- With this eventuality in mind India has not only started preparing itself for even Indo-Pak nuclear war through the day in and day out coverage on Indian T.V. channels about it but also has started scaring even USA (on the basis of alleged reports of reliable Americans themselves) about the threat to USA from Pakistani nukes which are eventually going to come ultimately under the control of fundamentalists). India is gradually veering round to get satisfaction from the propagated believe that in case of Indo � Pak nuclear war Pakistan may be able to harm some of the major cities of India here and there but then India will see to it that nuclear & other strike of India does not leave even a grass (what to talk of human beings) in whole of Pakistan.
(6)- Incidentally these considerations and calculations of India are not new but what prevented India from opting for a military solution was the attitude of USA which has now completely changed due to following:-
(i)- The incumbency of White House has changed from Bush to Obama who reportedly wants to concentrate mainly on Afghanistan (though whether abandoning Iraq will be possible for Obama is a debatable issue) mainly due to reason that substantial number of Americans not only considers Iraq expedition as personal agenda of Jr. Bush (in order to carry out the unfinished task of Sr. Bush) but also Americans correlate (once Al-Qaeda and Taliban infested) Afghanistan and not Iraq with 9/11.
(ii)- India understands that the over dependence of USA on Pakistan is mainly due to supply of some 30 thousand Pakistani soldiers to USA and its allies for carrying out their Afghanistan program. Though USA asked India also to provide soldiers in Afghanistan but post independence antipathy of government of India towards USA about strategic matters prevented India from doing so. But now President Hamid Karzai's visit to India has come at the right time for India (in view of Mumbai terror attack and Obama's take over) that is why a proposal directly from Afghanistan is simply a temptation which India can hardly be expected to resist (Indian media has reported that on January 12, 2008 India has agreed to give soldiers to Karzai's Afghanistan).
(iii)- If Pakistan with 1:7 ratio of population can maintain 1:2 ratio of military with India then there is no reason that why India (with its present or enhanced military strength) can not afford to supply at least hundred thousand soldiers to Afghanistan not only to fight the "global war against terrorism" but also to bring peace and political stability in Afghanistan.
(7)- But once full fledged war between India and Pakistan takes place at eastern border of Pakistan (with or without nuclear confrontation) with about hundred thousand Indian soldiers in Afghanistan on western border of Pakistan then India has an added advantage of offering to world community a solution to this war / the political management of South Asia in the form of FSDSAARC which will take care of also the following apart from Indo � Pak equation:-
(i)- India has had and wants deep rooted relations with Afghanistan which is due to (a)- not only the cold war era support of India to USSR backed government of Afghanistan but also post 9/11 support of India to USA backed government of Afghanistan (b)- emotional links with Afghanistan which dates back to Maha-Bharat era where Gandhari (the queen) is believed to belong to Gandhar of Afghanistan (c)- Afghanistan's connection to SAARC (d)- To India's glee, Pakistan's accusation that India uses its Afghanistan relation as a counter balance to Pakistan (e)- India believes that it is also in the interest of Afghanistan to come in the FSDSAARC as it will give free water and air routes to land locked Afghanistan. Therefore India will like to have a permanent intrinsic political relation with Afghanistan through FSDSAARC
(ii)- Not withstanding highest regard & love (due to romantic relation India had with her father Sheikh Mujibur-Rehaman) by India towards recently ascendant regime of Sheikh Hasina, India believes that it is beyond the capacity of Sheikh Hasina or for that matter any other government of Bangladesh to solve the problem of Bangladeshi refugees in India and' Islamic terrorism' originating from Bangladesh against India. Therefore India would like to bring Bangladesh also under genuine secular regime in the form of FSDSAARC.
(iii)- Not withstanding government of India's statement that India would like LTTE chief Prabhakaran to be captured alive (so that he can be handed over to India for trial in ex-Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi's murder case), the discomfort of Hindus about the out right suppression of minority community the Tamil Hindus by majority community the Sinhalese Buddhists (though India has no sympathy with terrorist outfit LTTE but certainly concerned about political justice to Tamils) will constrain India to offer FSDSAARC to Sri Lanka, so that Tamil Hindus can get justice in the new dispensation.
(iv)- Notwithstanding reversal of decision by Nepal government to replace Hindu priests by Maoist priest at famous Pashupatinath Temple of Nepal, India still nurses deep suspicion about Maoist government of Nepal (which is still considered, to India's dismay, to be equi-distant towards India and China despite Nepal being Hindu religionist's State having deep rooted historic relations with India) and would like Nepal to come in FSDSAARC.
The author is New Delhi based political analyst.
Email: jainhemraj1945@gmail.com
Kashmir Watch :: In-depth coverage on Kashmir conflict
(i)- Karzai's visit to India has changed strategic scenario of the region (ii)- Pakistan faces military expeditions from both (eastern and western side) (iii)- Retrieving the territory of and not selective strikes in Pakistani side of Kashmir will be India's option (iii)- India preparing itself for EVEN nuclear war (iv)- India will ultimately try for "Federation of Secular Democratic SAARC Countries" (v)- India's this entire initiative will suit US policies with Obama in White House.
By Hem Raj Jain
The way Pakistani leadership is lulling Pakistan into spending its entire time and energy on merely tackling the issue of handing over the Pakistani accomplice (12 as per India) in Mumbai terror attack of November 26, 2008 - without comprehending the impending martial challenges from India - is bizarre to say the least.
Pakistan should understand the following backdrop of the contemporary situation:-
(1)- India understands that the terrorism in India is mainly due to 'Islamic terrorism' from Pakistan (due to unresolved Kashmir problem) and which has emboldened even such terrorists from Bangladesh (like HUJI etc. who draw disproportionately higher criticism from the people of India due to about 30 million Bangladeshi refugees which Bangladesh has refused to take back and which has created serious political and law & order problems in India, especially in north � east India).
(2)- Though neither it is the first terror attack in India nor are the numbers of people killed in Mumbai terror attack unprecedented. But the reason why emotions in India are aroused to such an unprecedented level after most audacious Mumbai terror attack (coupled with foreigners killed in this terror attack) is that the people of India has some how come to believe that it is now or never.
(3)- But India knows that notwithstanding whatever international support and pressure from India to bring these 12 terrorists to justice, Pakistan (as presently the avowed position of Pakistan government) will not only never hand over these 12 terrorists to India but Pakistan will also not be able to bring these 12 terrorists to justice (which is nothing less than death sentence) through judiciary of Pakistan.
(4)- Therefore India further believes that India will have to exercise military option to not only bring these 12 terrorists to justice but also to solve, once and for all, this problem of 'Islamic terrorism in' India. This can be achieved not by selective strikes in Pakistani side of Kashmir but by retrieving this territory (especially given the fact and realization that in both the cases it is bound to escalate to full fledged war between India and Pakistan and which will ultimately culminate into Indo � Pak nuclear war, if world community does not immediately bring nukes of India and Pakistan under its control).
(5)- With this eventuality in mind India has not only started preparing itself for even Indo-Pak nuclear war through the day in and day out coverage on Indian T.V. channels about it but also has started scaring even USA (on the basis of alleged reports of reliable Americans themselves) about the threat to USA from Pakistani nukes which are eventually going to come ultimately under the control of fundamentalists). India is gradually veering round to get satisfaction from the propagated believe that in case of Indo � Pak nuclear war Pakistan may be able to harm some of the major cities of India here and there but then India will see to it that nuclear & other strike of India does not leave even a grass (what to talk of human beings) in whole of Pakistan.
(6)- Incidentally these considerations and calculations of India are not new but what prevented India from opting for a military solution was the attitude of USA which has now completely changed due to following:-
(i)- The incumbency of White House has changed from Bush to Obama who reportedly wants to concentrate mainly on Afghanistan (though whether abandoning Iraq will be possible for Obama is a debatable issue) mainly due to reason that substantial number of Americans not only considers Iraq expedition as personal agenda of Jr. Bush (in order to carry out the unfinished task of Sr. Bush) but also Americans correlate (once Al-Qaeda and Taliban infested) Afghanistan and not Iraq with 9/11.
(ii)- India understands that the over dependence of USA on Pakistan is mainly due to supply of some 30 thousand Pakistani soldiers to USA and its allies for carrying out their Afghanistan program. Though USA asked India also to provide soldiers in Afghanistan but post independence antipathy of government of India towards USA about strategic matters prevented India from doing so. But now President Hamid Karzai's visit to India has come at the right time for India (in view of Mumbai terror attack and Obama's take over) that is why a proposal directly from Afghanistan is simply a temptation which India can hardly be expected to resist (Indian media has reported that on January 12, 2008 India has agreed to give soldiers to Karzai's Afghanistan).
(iii)- If Pakistan with 1:7 ratio of population can maintain 1:2 ratio of military with India then there is no reason that why India (with its present or enhanced military strength) can not afford to supply at least hundred thousand soldiers to Afghanistan not only to fight the "global war against terrorism" but also to bring peace and political stability in Afghanistan.
(7)- But once full fledged war between India and Pakistan takes place at eastern border of Pakistan (with or without nuclear confrontation) with about hundred thousand Indian soldiers in Afghanistan on western border of Pakistan then India has an added advantage of offering to world community a solution to this war / the political management of South Asia in the form of FSDSAARC which will take care of also the following apart from Indo � Pak equation:-
(i)- India has had and wants deep rooted relations with Afghanistan which is due to (a)- not only the cold war era support of India to USSR backed government of Afghanistan but also post 9/11 support of India to USA backed government of Afghanistan (b)- emotional links with Afghanistan which dates back to Maha-Bharat era where Gandhari (the queen) is believed to belong to Gandhar of Afghanistan (c)- Afghanistan's connection to SAARC (d)- To India's glee, Pakistan's accusation that India uses its Afghanistan relation as a counter balance to Pakistan (e)- India believes that it is also in the interest of Afghanistan to come in the FSDSAARC as it will give free water and air routes to land locked Afghanistan. Therefore India will like to have a permanent intrinsic political relation with Afghanistan through FSDSAARC
(ii)- Not withstanding highest regard & love (due to romantic relation India had with her father Sheikh Mujibur-Rehaman) by India towards recently ascendant regime of Sheikh Hasina, India believes that it is beyond the capacity of Sheikh Hasina or for that matter any other government of Bangladesh to solve the problem of Bangladeshi refugees in India and' Islamic terrorism' originating from Bangladesh against India. Therefore India would like to bring Bangladesh also under genuine secular regime in the form of FSDSAARC.
(iii)- Not withstanding government of India's statement that India would like LTTE chief Prabhakaran to be captured alive (so that he can be handed over to India for trial in ex-Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi's murder case), the discomfort of Hindus about the out right suppression of minority community the Tamil Hindus by majority community the Sinhalese Buddhists (though India has no sympathy with terrorist outfit LTTE but certainly concerned about political justice to Tamils) will constrain India to offer FSDSAARC to Sri Lanka, so that Tamil Hindus can get justice in the new dispensation.
(iv)- Notwithstanding reversal of decision by Nepal government to replace Hindu priests by Maoist priest at famous Pashupatinath Temple of Nepal, India still nurses deep suspicion about Maoist government of Nepal (which is still considered, to India's dismay, to be equi-distant towards India and China despite Nepal being Hindu religionist's State having deep rooted historic relations with India) and would like Nepal to come in FSDSAARC.
The author is New Delhi based political analyst.
Email: jainhemraj1945@gmail.com
Kashmir Watch :: In-depth coverage on Kashmir conflict
