Pakistan trying to broker Afghan deal
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Ex-Taliban governor sees little hope for Afghan peace
Tuesday, 06 Jul, 2010
Peace will not come to Afghanistan until you speak to the Taliban leaders and show sincerity, Mullah Abdul Salaam said in an interview.
KABUL: A former Taliban governor turned Afghan government official dismissed the peace process as a joke, saying Afghanistan cannot seek peace with the insurgents only by trying to woo their rank and file.
Peace cannot come to Afghanistan through the junior Taliban, the 59-year-old Mullah Abdul Salaam told Reuters in an interview in Kabul.
This will bear no fruit if the Taliban leaders are not involved and listened to. The whole peace process that the government and the world wants to pursue is a joke...a waste of time and money.
To many observers, the US-led effort to destroy the Taliban and establish a stable government is already a monumental waste of time and money.
Nearly nine years after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, Osama bin Laden and other senior al-Qaeda figures are still at large, the Taliban insurgency is raging and there is widespread loathing both for foreign forces and an Afghan government largely seen as corrupt or incapable.
Western governments want out and are training Afghan forces to replace them, but perhaps worried they will not be able to cope, President Hamid Karzai is making peace overtures to the Taliban.
The proposals include offering an amnesty and reintegration to foot soldiers who agree to accept Afghanistan's constitution, removing the names of certain leaders from a UN blacklist, and securing sanctuary in a friendly Muslim nation for others.
But these sort of modest steps simply don't appeal to the Taliban, Salaam said. The bottom line is they believe they are winning.
The movement's leadership, allegedly based in the Pakistani city of Quetta, still calls the shots, Salaam said, and has organised war plans, unity and obedience in hierarchy a reference to perceived differences between Afghan and Western officials.
Religious schools in Pakistan were producing suicide bombers in abundance for carrying out low-cost attacks against Afghan and foreign forces, he added, while it was costing the West billions to fund the conflict.
Iconic Taliban
Salaam is among only a handful of ex-Taliban officials to have joined Karzai's government since the hardline group was ousted in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks.
Sitting crossed-legged on a mat and sporting a long beard dyed to match his jet-black turban, Salaam told how he fought the Soviet occupation of the 1980s and later joined the Taliban as Afghanistan descended into civil war and anarchy after they left.
He rose to become governor of southern Uruzgan province impressed with some aspects of Taliban rule, but also disturbed by others.
Frustrated with the meddling of Pakistan's intelligence service in Afghan affairs and also angered by the way Pakistani militants were killing non-Pashtuns during operations in northern Afghanistan Salaam said he quit the movement.
Then September 11 happened.
US forces invaded, gave the Northern Alliance the muscle and firepower to tackle the Taliban and Salaam surrendered along with 200 of his armed men to the newly established pro-US government of Karzai, only to be arrested later and jailed for eight months for siding with the enemy.
Most of his men rejoined the Taliban, but once out of jail Salaam kept a low profile until approached by Karzai, who asked him to become district chief of Musa Qala in Helmand, the most restive part of Afghanistan and a key drug-producing province.
Pillars of government
My intention was to consolidate the pillars of the government after years of war and that was the reason I joined the government, he said.
Suddenly his services were in demand, and the Taliban approached him to become its shadow governor instead.
I told them I am no longer a warrior and we should campaign through the ballot rather than bullets, he says of a meeting that left his old comrades furious and vowing vengeance.
Some even called him apostate.
Over the following years he had death threats and assassination attempts made on his life. He was also kidnapped before being released after intensive tribal negotiations.
Dozens of his extended family were targeted too.
Salaam said the government gave him little help in starting development projects in the area, and that British troops based there stymied his efforts and smeared his reputation until he was dismissed a few weeks ago.
They (people of Musa Qala) said I didn't even build a stable, he complained, adding he was now back in the capital to seek redress.
Meanwhile, Salaam now appears on local television discussion panels not as a voice of the Taliban, but someone who has a good insight into how they think.
Peace will not come to Afghanistan until you speak to the Taliban leaders and show sincerity, he said.
DAWN.COM | World | Ex-Taliban governor sees little hope for Afghan peace
Tuesday, 06 Jul, 2010
Peace will not come to Afghanistan until you speak to the Taliban leaders and show sincerity, Mullah Abdul Salaam said in an interview.
KABUL: A former Taliban governor turned Afghan government official dismissed the peace process as a joke, saying Afghanistan cannot seek peace with the insurgents only by trying to woo their rank and file.
Peace cannot come to Afghanistan through the junior Taliban, the 59-year-old Mullah Abdul Salaam told Reuters in an interview in Kabul.
This will bear no fruit if the Taliban leaders are not involved and listened to. The whole peace process that the government and the world wants to pursue is a joke...a waste of time and money.
To many observers, the US-led effort to destroy the Taliban and establish a stable government is already a monumental waste of time and money.
Nearly nine years after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, Osama bin Laden and other senior al-Qaeda figures are still at large, the Taliban insurgency is raging and there is widespread loathing both for foreign forces and an Afghan government largely seen as corrupt or incapable.
Western governments want out and are training Afghan forces to replace them, but perhaps worried they will not be able to cope, President Hamid Karzai is making peace overtures to the Taliban.
The proposals include offering an amnesty and reintegration to foot soldiers who agree to accept Afghanistan's constitution, removing the names of certain leaders from a UN blacklist, and securing sanctuary in a friendly Muslim nation for others.
But these sort of modest steps simply don't appeal to the Taliban, Salaam said. The bottom line is they believe they are winning.
The movement's leadership, allegedly based in the Pakistani city of Quetta, still calls the shots, Salaam said, and has organised war plans, unity and obedience in hierarchy a reference to perceived differences between Afghan and Western officials.
Religious schools in Pakistan were producing suicide bombers in abundance for carrying out low-cost attacks against Afghan and foreign forces, he added, while it was costing the West billions to fund the conflict.
Iconic Taliban
Salaam is among only a handful of ex-Taliban officials to have joined Karzai's government since the hardline group was ousted in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks.
Sitting crossed-legged on a mat and sporting a long beard dyed to match his jet-black turban, Salaam told how he fought the Soviet occupation of the 1980s and later joined the Taliban as Afghanistan descended into civil war and anarchy after they left.
He rose to become governor of southern Uruzgan province impressed with some aspects of Taliban rule, but also disturbed by others.
Frustrated with the meddling of Pakistan's intelligence service in Afghan affairs and also angered by the way Pakistani militants were killing non-Pashtuns during operations in northern Afghanistan Salaam said he quit the movement.
Then September 11 happened.
US forces invaded, gave the Northern Alliance the muscle and firepower to tackle the Taliban and Salaam surrendered along with 200 of his armed men to the newly established pro-US government of Karzai, only to be arrested later and jailed for eight months for siding with the enemy.
Most of his men rejoined the Taliban, but once out of jail Salaam kept a low profile until approached by Karzai, who asked him to become district chief of Musa Qala in Helmand, the most restive part of Afghanistan and a key drug-producing province.
Pillars of government
My intention was to consolidate the pillars of the government after years of war and that was the reason I joined the government, he said.
Suddenly his services were in demand, and the Taliban approached him to become its shadow governor instead.
I told them I am no longer a warrior and we should campaign through the ballot rather than bullets, he says of a meeting that left his old comrades furious and vowing vengeance.
Some even called him apostate.
Over the following years he had death threats and assassination attempts made on his life. He was also kidnapped before being released after intensive tribal negotiations.
Dozens of his extended family were targeted too.
Salaam said the government gave him little help in starting development projects in the area, and that British troops based there stymied his efforts and smeared his reputation until he was dismissed a few weeks ago.
They (people of Musa Qala) said I didn't even build a stable, he complained, adding he was now back in the capital to seek redress.
Meanwhile, Salaam now appears on local television discussion panels not as a voice of the Taliban, but someone who has a good insight into how they think.
Peace will not come to Afghanistan until you speak to the Taliban leaders and show sincerity, he said.
DAWN.COM | World | Ex-Taliban governor sees little hope for Afghan peace
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Pakistan is part of solution to problems in Afghanistan: Gilani
ISLAMABAD, July 6 (APP) - Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani on Tuesday said that Pakistan is part of the solution to problems in Afghanistan and sincerely desires to work together with the government of Afghanistan in this regard.
Pakistan, he said, really wants to improve its relations with the brotherly country of Afghanistan in all spheres of economic activity. The prime minister was talking to the Afghan trade delegation led by Hazrat Qamar Zakhilwal, Minister for Finance and Trade. The delegation included Wahidullah Shahrani, Minister for Mines and the Afghan Ambassador in Pakistan.
The premier emphasised on cooperation beyond the existing collaboration in security matters including intelligence sharing so as to develop a comprehensive strategy to combat terrorism and militancy.
The focus at present of both the countries, he said, should be to improve the law and order situation to ensure peace and stability.
Law and order and economy, he said, are bracketed with each other. The improved environment, the prime minister said would automatically extend opportunities to exploit the huge potential for enhancement of trade and commercial activities. It would bring progress and prosperity for the people of the two neighbuorly countries.
Stressing upon the need to increase bilateral trade the prime minister underlined the importance of regularising the trade as well to check smuggling of goods. He further underscored the significance of improving connectivity between the two countries by developing railways and road links.
These infrastructures, he said, could be extended beyond Afghanistan to Central Asia thus leading to economic development of the entire region.
The prime minister reiterated that the concept of trilateral links between Pakistan, Afghanistan and China could greatly benefit all the three countries. The discussions in this context between the leadership of three countries, he said, have been encouraging.
The prime minister recalled his meetings with President Karzai as very useful in further developing relations between the two countries. He mentioned that Pakistan had offered to help develop various institutions in Afghanistan including training of police and army.
The prime minister underlined the immediate need for closer links between the business community of both the countries. It would help expand possibilities of trade and commerce. These links can be strengthened through people to people contacts, exchange of parliamentary delegations and close links between political leadership, he said
The Afghan minister for finance and trade said that his meetings with the Pakistani officials have been very fruitful. He agreed with the prime minister that there are great potentials for promotion of trade between the two brotherly countries.
The government of Afghanistan, he said, has already taken up the railways project to link Torkham with Jalalabad. The next railways link, he mentioned, would be between Jalalabad and Mazar-e-Sharif during the next five years.
The Afghan minister condemned the terrorist attack on the sacred shrine of Data Ganj Bakhsh and emphasised on need to improve the security situation in both the brotherly countries.
He invited Pakistani businessmen to invest in the infrastructure sector in Afghanistan and also to explore possibilities of joint ventures. He also highlighted the prospects of developing the copper and coal mines of Afghanistan.
The meeting was attended by Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, Minister for Finance and concerned federal secretaries
ISLAMABAD, July 6 (APP) - Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani on Tuesday said that Pakistan is part of the solution to problems in Afghanistan and sincerely desires to work together with the government of Afghanistan in this regard.
Pakistan, he said, really wants to improve its relations with the brotherly country of Afghanistan in all spheres of economic activity. The prime minister was talking to the Afghan trade delegation led by Hazrat Qamar Zakhilwal, Minister for Finance and Trade. The delegation included Wahidullah Shahrani, Minister for Mines and the Afghan Ambassador in Pakistan.
The premier emphasised on cooperation beyond the existing collaboration in security matters including intelligence sharing so as to develop a comprehensive strategy to combat terrorism and militancy.
The focus at present of both the countries, he said, should be to improve the law and order situation to ensure peace and stability.
Law and order and economy, he said, are bracketed with each other. The improved environment, the prime minister said would automatically extend opportunities to exploit the huge potential for enhancement of trade and commercial activities. It would bring progress and prosperity for the people of the two neighbuorly countries.
Stressing upon the need to increase bilateral trade the prime minister underlined the importance of regularising the trade as well to check smuggling of goods. He further underscored the significance of improving connectivity between the two countries by developing railways and road links.
These infrastructures, he said, could be extended beyond Afghanistan to Central Asia thus leading to economic development of the entire region.
The prime minister reiterated that the concept of trilateral links between Pakistan, Afghanistan and China could greatly benefit all the three countries. The discussions in this context between the leadership of three countries, he said, have been encouraging.
The prime minister recalled his meetings with President Karzai as very useful in further developing relations between the two countries. He mentioned that Pakistan had offered to help develop various institutions in Afghanistan including training of police and army.
The prime minister underlined the immediate need for closer links between the business community of both the countries. It would help expand possibilities of trade and commerce. These links can be strengthened through people to people contacts, exchange of parliamentary delegations and close links between political leadership, he said
The Afghan minister for finance and trade said that his meetings with the Pakistani officials have been very fruitful. He agreed with the prime minister that there are great potentials for promotion of trade between the two brotherly countries.
The government of Afghanistan, he said, has already taken up the railways project to link Torkham with Jalalabad. The next railways link, he mentioned, would be between Jalalabad and Mazar-e-Sharif during the next five years.
The Afghan minister condemned the terrorist attack on the sacred shrine of Data Ganj Bakhsh and emphasised on need to improve the security situation in both the brotherly countries.
He invited Pakistani businessmen to invest in the infrastructure sector in Afghanistan and also to explore possibilities of joint ventures. He also highlighted the prospects of developing the copper and coal mines of Afghanistan.
The meeting was attended by Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, Minister for Finance and concerned federal secretaries
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News Analysis
Analysts Say Pakistan is Beijing's Window on Afghanistan
William Ide | Washington 08 July 2010
Regional security analysts say a six-day visit by Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari to China this week - his fifth since stepping into office - highlights the growing ties between the two countries. They say that in addition to providing a hedge against India in the region, Pakistan is Beijing's window on Afghanistan and its strategic interests in the war torn country.
For Pakistan, President Zardari's trip to China seems to be largely focused on drawing Chinese investment to the country.
On Wednesday in Beijing, Mr. Zardari met with Chinese business leaders from industries ranging from banking to defense. The president appealed for Chinese help in developing the country's energy sector and noted that the true potential of business opportunities between the two countries had yet to be realized.
Mr. Zardari and Chinese President Hu Jintao signed six agreements, but details were not made public.
Sumit Ganguly, a political science professor at Indiana University, says that while Islamabad is looking to Beijing to help build up its infrastructure and address its energy needs, China is looking to Pakistan to understand the future of Afghanistan.
"The Pakistanis recently have been talking to the Taliban and have been trying to convince President Karzai to reach an agreement with the Taliban as the U.S. prepares to withdraw in July 2011," he said.
Gangulay says that Pakistan would like to have a government that incorporates the Taliban in Afghanistan because Islamabad believes such a regime would be sympathetic to Pakistani interests.
"Karzai is under considerable pressure from the Pakistan to fold, and the Chinese are curious probably to know how exactly things will play out," he said.
Michael Swaine, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, says China looks at the Afghanistan situation through its relationship with Pakistan.
"If there is a problem in Afghanistan and Pakistan is concerned about that problem, China wants to make sure it is on the same wave length as Pakistan," he said.
Swaine says that such problems could be anything that raise questions and concerns about the stability of Afghanistan - such as the expansion of Indian influence or the emergence of Taliban groups that do not support the Pakistan government.
Dan Blumenthal of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington says both Pakistan and China are using their relationship as a hedge against the possibility that the U.S. does not succeed in Afghanistan.
"That key relationship has always been important for both sides, for the Chinese increasingly so; to have some influence in South Asia and Central Asia, and for the Pakistanis to have options in case things go really south in Afghanistan," he said.
Professor Gangulay says that Beijing's close relationship with Islamabad has helped China in Afghanistan and made it possible for the Chinese to avoid working with the U.S. government in any meaningful fashion.
"The Chinese are doing quite well in Afghanistan," he said. "They have managed to get lucrative contracts to extract copper and other mineral resources from Afghanistan. And as long as the Pakistanis have a substantial presence after the American withdrawal, why should they care about our [U.S.] interests."
President Barack Obama has set July 2011 as a date to begin withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan, if conditions on the ground permit.
However, analysts like Michael Swaine note that China is not looking for the United States to quickly pull out of Afghanistan, because that could result in more instability that would threaten the region and its economic interests there as well.
"Now that said, I don't think they [China] want the United States to remain in Afghanistan either for an extended period of time," said Swaine. "They want a stable regime in Afghanistan that they can work; that will be accepting of and receptive of both their economic interests in Afghanistan - which are growing and are significant - and a regime that will work with Pakistan."
China has large investments in Afghanistan, including a multi-billion dollar project to develop a copper mine in the Aynak valley, just south of the capital, Kabul. It has also provided a range of aid to Afghanistan by helping it build a communications infrastructure, hospitals, and irrigation systems among other projects.
Despite concerns voiced by its critics, Chinese officials say Beijing's relationship with Islamabad benefits peace, stability and prosperity of the region.
Analysts Say Pakistan is Beijing's Window on Afghanistan
William Ide | Washington 08 July 2010
Regional security analysts say a six-day visit by Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari to China this week - his fifth since stepping into office - highlights the growing ties between the two countries. They say that in addition to providing a hedge against India in the region, Pakistan is Beijing's window on Afghanistan and its strategic interests in the war torn country.
For Pakistan, President Zardari's trip to China seems to be largely focused on drawing Chinese investment to the country.
On Wednesday in Beijing, Mr. Zardari met with Chinese business leaders from industries ranging from banking to defense. The president appealed for Chinese help in developing the country's energy sector and noted that the true potential of business opportunities between the two countries had yet to be realized.
Mr. Zardari and Chinese President Hu Jintao signed six agreements, but details were not made public.
Sumit Ganguly, a political science professor at Indiana University, says that while Islamabad is looking to Beijing to help build up its infrastructure and address its energy needs, China is looking to Pakistan to understand the future of Afghanistan.
"The Pakistanis recently have been talking to the Taliban and have been trying to convince President Karzai to reach an agreement with the Taliban as the U.S. prepares to withdraw in July 2011," he said.
Gangulay says that Pakistan would like to have a government that incorporates the Taliban in Afghanistan because Islamabad believes such a regime would be sympathetic to Pakistani interests.
"Karzai is under considerable pressure from the Pakistan to fold, and the Chinese are curious probably to know how exactly things will play out," he said.
Michael Swaine, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, says China looks at the Afghanistan situation through its relationship with Pakistan.
"If there is a problem in Afghanistan and Pakistan is concerned about that problem, China wants to make sure it is on the same wave length as Pakistan," he said.
Swaine says that such problems could be anything that raise questions and concerns about the stability of Afghanistan - such as the expansion of Indian influence or the emergence of Taliban groups that do not support the Pakistan government.
Dan Blumenthal of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington says both Pakistan and China are using their relationship as a hedge against the possibility that the U.S. does not succeed in Afghanistan.
"That key relationship has always been important for both sides, for the Chinese increasingly so; to have some influence in South Asia and Central Asia, and for the Pakistanis to have options in case things go really south in Afghanistan," he said.
Professor Gangulay says that Beijing's close relationship with Islamabad has helped China in Afghanistan and made it possible for the Chinese to avoid working with the U.S. government in any meaningful fashion.
"The Chinese are doing quite well in Afghanistan," he said. "They have managed to get lucrative contracts to extract copper and other mineral resources from Afghanistan. And as long as the Pakistanis have a substantial presence after the American withdrawal, why should they care about our [U.S.] interests."
President Barack Obama has set July 2011 as a date to begin withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan, if conditions on the ground permit.
However, analysts like Michael Swaine note that China is not looking for the United States to quickly pull out of Afghanistan, because that could result in more instability that would threaten the region and its economic interests there as well.
"Now that said, I don't think they [China] want the United States to remain in Afghanistan either for an extended period of time," said Swaine. "They want a stable regime in Afghanistan that they can work; that will be accepting of and receptive of both their economic interests in Afghanistan - which are growing and are significant - and a regime that will work with Pakistan."
China has large investments in Afghanistan, including a multi-billion dollar project to develop a copper mine in the Aynak valley, just south of the capital, Kabul. It has also provided a range of aid to Afghanistan by helping it build a communications infrastructure, hospitals, and irrigation systems among other projects.
Despite concerns voiced by its critics, Chinese officials say Beijing's relationship with Islamabad benefits peace, stability and prosperity of the region.
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The Afghanistan tightrope
JONATHAN MOORE
AS US foreign policy makers wrestle about Afghanistan, three temptations must be forcefully resisted: re-asserting the US commitment to winning the insurgency war against the Taliban; weakening the US plan to begin withdrawing forces; and blocking local and regional efforts to negotiate a resolution.
The review of our Afghan policy scheduled for December should begin now, with its efforts devoted to getting out as soon as can be managed, and not to hanging on open-endedly, hoping against evidence and reason that things will seriously improve.
This is a risky balancing act, but continuing with the existing option is more treacherous.
The highly hyped counter-insurgency strategy is illusory. It is an attractive concept in the abstract secure, hold and build but enjoys neither the capacity nor the conditions to actually work. Securing remains frustrated. Holding is delayed. Building is even more of a failure: development is almost impossible without security; the military itself cannot accomplish the local rehabilitation and stability needed; and the civilian backup to accomplish enduring building is absent, both from the internationals and from Kabul. In truth, any US commitment to assure good governance in a democratic Afghanistan before it withdraws is a self-entrapment of dire consequence.
Although US objectives are noble, the reality is that it is impossible for them to be successful without two assets that the United States does not and will not have.
First is the level of resources financial, troops, civilian expertise to truly sustain the necessary effort. Second is time. Even if the United States were successful in pursuing its objectives it would take generations. The nation simply doesnt have the wherewithal to sustain the investment required, given competing priorities abroad and at home. Moreover, the lack of political will to tolerate a continuing draining of precious resources and unending US casualties will become overwhelming.
Some of our virtues optimism, can do spirit, refusal to quit can distract us from guarding against extending foreign involvements beyond our capacity to deliver in environments we cannot control. We need to strive more in enduring than winning, and in achieving what we can get out of a bad situation rather than in trying to eradicate it.
Washington should seize on the one thing where it and Kabul agree both sides reject the other as a reliable partner, and both sides are correct. The current Afghan government is not capable of transforming itself soon enough to build a viable state in the middle of a protracted civil war. And the United States cannot stay long enough; it can be depended upon to leave.
The promise of this mutual recognition is that it confirms the need for Afghanistan to work out its own problems. Although the United States has said Kabul must settle its own hash, our actions have not driven this home. So Afghanistan relies on us to carry the fight and take the blame.
Given this rare compatibility, the United States should encourage President Hamid Karzai rather than oppose him in taking responsibility for his own fate by attempting to find a way of reaching a political agreement with the Taliban on Afghanistans future, one accepted by Pakistan. The United States would play a major role in the negotiations; and also agreement must be sought from other major actors, including India, Saudia Arabia, Iran, China, and Russia.
A strategy which was willing to sacrifice some of its ambition but still have a chance of success would essentially be to substitute a commitment to political accommodation for the dominance of military force and role in our overall approach. There would neither be abandonment nor occupation, but rather a different configuration. Reduced but present US troops will remain essential to the combined effort. Priorities would be tenacious diplomacy and the provision of prolonged political support and development aid for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Finally, the core American security interest to combat the real enemy, which is not the Taliban but Al Qaeda and its like, remains to be recalibrated and strengthened.
Clearly this strategy is replete with risk and uncertainty, but lacking a better one, it is where US leadership should direct its energy, imagination, and will.
Jonathan Moore, a former special assistant to the Secretary of Defense and ambassador to the United Nations, is an associate at the Shorenstein Center at Harvard Universitys Kennedy School.
JONATHAN MOORE
AS US foreign policy makers wrestle about Afghanistan, three temptations must be forcefully resisted: re-asserting the US commitment to winning the insurgency war against the Taliban; weakening the US plan to begin withdrawing forces; and blocking local and regional efforts to negotiate a resolution.
The review of our Afghan policy scheduled for December should begin now, with its efforts devoted to getting out as soon as can be managed, and not to hanging on open-endedly, hoping against evidence and reason that things will seriously improve.
This is a risky balancing act, but continuing with the existing option is more treacherous.
The highly hyped counter-insurgency strategy is illusory. It is an attractive concept in the abstract secure, hold and build but enjoys neither the capacity nor the conditions to actually work. Securing remains frustrated. Holding is delayed. Building is even more of a failure: development is almost impossible without security; the military itself cannot accomplish the local rehabilitation and stability needed; and the civilian backup to accomplish enduring building is absent, both from the internationals and from Kabul. In truth, any US commitment to assure good governance in a democratic Afghanistan before it withdraws is a self-entrapment of dire consequence.
Although US objectives are noble, the reality is that it is impossible for them to be successful without two assets that the United States does not and will not have.
First is the level of resources financial, troops, civilian expertise to truly sustain the necessary effort. Second is time. Even if the United States were successful in pursuing its objectives it would take generations. The nation simply doesnt have the wherewithal to sustain the investment required, given competing priorities abroad and at home. Moreover, the lack of political will to tolerate a continuing draining of precious resources and unending US casualties will become overwhelming.
Some of our virtues optimism, can do spirit, refusal to quit can distract us from guarding against extending foreign involvements beyond our capacity to deliver in environments we cannot control. We need to strive more in enduring than winning, and in achieving what we can get out of a bad situation rather than in trying to eradicate it.
Washington should seize on the one thing where it and Kabul agree both sides reject the other as a reliable partner, and both sides are correct. The current Afghan government is not capable of transforming itself soon enough to build a viable state in the middle of a protracted civil war. And the United States cannot stay long enough; it can be depended upon to leave.
The promise of this mutual recognition is that it confirms the need for Afghanistan to work out its own problems. Although the United States has said Kabul must settle its own hash, our actions have not driven this home. So Afghanistan relies on us to carry the fight and take the blame.
Given this rare compatibility, the United States should encourage President Hamid Karzai rather than oppose him in taking responsibility for his own fate by attempting to find a way of reaching a political agreement with the Taliban on Afghanistans future, one accepted by Pakistan. The United States would play a major role in the negotiations; and also agreement must be sought from other major actors, including India, Saudia Arabia, Iran, China, and Russia.
A strategy which was willing to sacrifice some of its ambition but still have a chance of success would essentially be to substitute a commitment to political accommodation for the dominance of military force and role in our overall approach. There would neither be abandonment nor occupation, but rather a different configuration. Reduced but present US troops will remain essential to the combined effort. Priorities would be tenacious diplomacy and the provision of prolonged political support and development aid for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Finally, the core American security interest to combat the real enemy, which is not the Taliban but Al Qaeda and its like, remains to be recalibrated and strengthened.
Clearly this strategy is replete with risk and uncertainty, but lacking a better one, it is where US leadership should direct its energy, imagination, and will.
Jonathan Moore, a former special assistant to the Secretary of Defense and ambassador to the United Nations, is an associate at the Shorenstein Center at Harvard Universitys Kennedy School.
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