Pakistan to have 200 nuclear weapons by 2020: US think tank

[Stephen Cohen]

The RECENT track 2 diplomacy talks between India Pakistan
have focussed on this question

Alongside gunfire, India-Pakistan track-II talks continued in Dubai - The Times of India

An excerpt : Attended by former ambassadors and? prominent members of the civil society from both sides, the track-II Dubai Dialogue Group discussed ways to deal with any fallout of another 26/11 type of terror strike in India with assistance from any Pakistani state or non- state actor. They also focused on what the two governments could do to keep dialogue going despite the recent cancellation of foreign secretary-level talks.

 

[Hyperion]

If there ever is an attack again, this time India will label it as "non state actors" and will actively buildup public opinion on the same lines....... whatever Modi is, one thing is for sure, he's no fool...... all that hoopla that was done before by BJP, was merely what all political parties in opposition do........... no biggie there. Indian and Pakistani strategic planners are well aware of an all out war. Oscar's analysis is spot on and will hold for the foreseeable future. Maximum war mongers will get to see is what happened few weeks along the LoC, minor skirmishes and that's all!

@Oscar What will happen should there be a major terror attack on India like 26/11

Will Nuclear blackmail work for ever

India believes that for all the Nuclear posturing by Pakistan ;
Pakistan is not suicidal ; but it does love to needle India

 

[SQ8]

dude i agree with u on this particular term wt about hadis on this topic wt does it say

Hadiath have various reliability standards.

 

[ito]

That idea is lost on people like Swamy.. and Hamid. That while Pakistan will be defeated in any conventional war.. the result of it on the Indian economy and the lives of many Indians will have much more of a collective impact than say on the lives of the common Pakistani. Take it a game of snakes and ladders...
View attachment 156516



for Pakistan, Sets say Pakistan was on 69.. it will slide down to 9.. a loss of 60... Yet, India being on 95.. will head down to 24.. a loss of 71... even with the best.. India sliding down from 92 to 51.. is unacceptable to the Indian "establishment/Think Tank".

These calculation have been done by India, and it is precisely why it too knows that future conflicts have to be kept short and very focused on goals...and at best avoided at all costs.

it is not that india doesn't recognize this. it is fully aware of the huge consequences to india of indo pak war. hence india would like to settle all disputes with pak including kashmir as soon as possible, but at the same time kashmir is so deeply engraved in indian psyche that any change in territory could spell trouble to the whole indian union, hence india has very little space to maneuver on kashmir and little to offer pak on kashmir.

 

[WAJsal]

Hadiath have various reliability standards.

there must be a most reliable one!!!

 

[HariPrasad]

I cam across follong information of one IDSA article on Indian nuclear program.

Phase I: 2000-2010

l Prithvi-plus unit 1 (8 launchers) 16 (20 to 30 Kt fission)

l Agni-I unit 1 (8 launchers) 24 (200 Kt thermonuclear)

l Dhanush 4 launchers 8 (20 to 30 Kt fission)

l SU-30s, Mirage-2000s -- 32 (200 Kt thermonuclear)

Jaguars

Total 80 warheads

Phase II: 2011-2020

l Prithvi-plus units 2 (16 launchers) 16 (20 to 30 Kt fission)

l Agni-I unit 1 (8 launchers) 24 (200 Kt thermonuclear)

l Agni-II units 2 (16 launchers) 36 (1 Mt)

l 2 x SSBNs 24 (SLBM launchers) 26 (1 Mt)

l SU-30s, Mirage-2000s -- 48 (200 Kt thermonuclear)

Total 150 warheads

Phase III: 2021-2030

l Prithvi-plus units 2 (16 launchers) 16 (20 to 30 Kt fission)

l Agni-I units 1 (8 launchers) 24 (200 Kt thermonuclear)

l Agni-II units 3 (24 launchers) 54 (1 Mt)

l Surya ICBM ? ?

l 4 x SSBNs 48 (SLBM launchers) 50 (1 Mt)

l SU-30s -- 56 (200 Kt thermonuclear)

Total 200

In an another article I had read that India will move to 3 MT+ weapon by 2020 onward.

 

[The Deterrent]

I cam across follong information of one IDSA article on Indian nuclear program.

Phase I: 2000-2010

l Prithvi-plus unit 1 (8 launchers) 16 (20 to 30 Kt fission)

l Agni-I unit 1 (8 launchers) 24 (200 Kt thermonuclear)

l Dhanush 4 launchers 8 (20 to 30 Kt fission)

l SU-30s, Mirage-2000s -- 32 (200 Kt thermonuclear)

Jaguars

Total 80 warheads

Phase II: 2011-2020

l Prithvi-plus units 2 (16 launchers) 16 (20 to 30 Kt fission)

l Agni-I unit 1 (8 launchers) 24 (200 Kt thermonuclear)

l Agni-II units 2 (16 launchers) 36 (1 Mt)

l 2 x SSBNs 24 (SLBM launchers) 26 (1 Mt)

l SU-30s, Mirage-2000s -- 48 (200 Kt thermonuclear)

Total 150 warheads

Phase III: 2021-2030

l Prithvi-plus units 2 (16 launchers) 16 (20 to 30 Kt fission)

l Agni-I units 1 (8 launchers) 24 (200 Kt thermonuclear)

l Agni-II units 3 (24 launchers) 54 (1 Mt)

l Surya ICBM ? ?

l 4 x SSBNs 48 (SLBM launchers) 50 (1 Mt)

l SU-30s -- 56 (200 Kt thermonuclear)

Total 200

In an another article I had read that India will move to 3 MT+ weapon by 2020 onward.

Can you provide links for these articles for reading on the details?

 

[kurup]

Can you provide links for these articles for reading on the details?

Data looks like someone's imagination .

 

[The Deterrent]

Data looks like someone's imagination .

Yeah. Prithvi was relieved of the nuclear role a long time ago, there is no mention of Agni-3/4/5/6 and yield estimates are way off-charts.

 

[kurup]

Yeah. Prithvi was relieved of the nuclear role a long time ago, there is no mention of Agni-3/4/5/6 and yield estimates are way off-charts.

The article looks old and according to the author the list is Recommended Nuclear Force Structure: 2000-2030

India's Nuclear Force Structure

 

[HariPrasad]

Can you provide links for these articles for reading on the details?

Please find here with the link. It is an article of IDSA.

India's Nuclear Force Structure

 

[The Deterrent]

Please find here with the link. It is an article of IDSA.

India's Nuclear Force Structure

These estimates were made in 2000 and are a bit far from present day reality.

 

[SiLver SoLdiER]

I guess like pakisthanis the world also doesnt believe in capabilities of Indians :p

Yeah we know the capabilities of indians is around 1-raped girl like you per minute in every day...!!

 

[QAMARSHAZADQURESHI]

pakistan need 2000

 

[The SC]

False alarm report, West decreasing from 10 000 nuclear warheads to 7 000 for the US alone (seemingly), and talking about production increase of up to 200 nuclear devices in Pakistan by 2020.