Pakistan to be 20th most powerful economy by 2030: PwC

[Jinn Baba]

Damn! Chinese economy will be nearly the size of USA and India combined and bigger than the following 10 countries combined

 

[proud_indian]

what about per capita future forecast?

not per capita but gdp growth data forcast

 

[Nilgiri]

what about per capita future forecast?

Just continue the lines

@Nilgiri @Abingdonboy would you like to add something?

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=IN-PK

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CBRT.IN?locations=IN-PK

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?locations=IN-PK

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=IN-PK

Demographically, Pakistan today seems to be mostly around the point where India was in the mid 90s - early 2000's.

 

[aakash_2410]

what about per capita future forecast?

http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/economy/the-world-in-2050.html

Go to the bottom and select India and Pakistan for comparison.

 

[khanz]

I'm not an economist but how the hell did egypt ahead of us - not trying to be rude but they get even more aid than pakistan. Nearly all of egypt is barren desert other than on the nile and if they can be 19th then pakistan can sure as hell do better. I dunno maybe i'm just being ignorant or acting arrogant if so i'm sorry. I know they are a bit better in education and literacy but is egypt more industrialized than us ? C'mon pakistanis will become the 4th largest population on earth in next few decades- surely it can try and exploit the sheer manpower it can try for top 10 maybe top 15 then ?

 

[Abingdonboy]

rother,

India have to feed 1.22 Billion People , and Pakistan just have to take care of around 240 Million, so impact on progress will be far better in Pakistan as compere to India.

This is an illogical statement, looking at a population as a liability and not an asset is backwards thinking.

With larger population size you have a larger talent pool, workforce and tax base. Historcially India and China were the two global economic powerhouses for this reason.

Per capita incomes and HDI are signifcantly higher in India as a result of its larger GDP and thus larger budgets.

With 4-5th largest population by that time it will be a joke if we are the 20th most powerful economy by that time. We should aim for atleast being the 4th largest economy by that time. By this standard a lot of our people will still be living in poverty by 2030.

There is litterally no chance of this, to become 4th Pakistan would have to overtake countries like Indonesia, France, UK, Germany, Russia, Turkey etc etc.

Population is not the only determinent of GDP size, Pakistan's fundamentals are too weak to mount a serious challenge on the nations above, many of whom are economic giants in their own right. If I am being honest, any chance Pakistan did have of beating these predictions has been washed away by the GoP actions of recent years; commiting Pakistan's future generations to an almost crippling debt burden.

 

[Nilgiri]

I'm not an economist but how the hell did egypt ahead of us - not trying to be rude but they get even more aid than pakistan. Nearly all of egypt is barren desert other than on the nile and if they can be 19th then pakistan can sure as hell do better. I dunno maybe i'm just being ignorant or acting arrogant if so i'm sorry. I know they are a bit better in education and literacy but is egypt more industrialized than us ? C'mon pakistanis will become the 4th largest population on earth in next few decades- surely it can try and exploit the sheer manpower it can try for top 10 maybe top 15 then ?

You just answered your own question. Education and literacy...and Egypt is not a bit better but a lot better in both of those compared to Pakistan (from the 3rd party measurements and analysis).

Its not encouraging when literacy rates are dropping in Pakistan:

https://tribune.com.pk/story/886027/2013-14-report-literacy-rate-slips-nationwide-by-2/

and your workforce skill/education is projected to be worse than current existing one as a result:

https://defence.pk/threads/whats-holding-back-bangladesh.474841/#post-9149084

So if Pakistan fixes its education, you can outperform the projections (they are just projections after all and do not account for major improvements and dis-improvements). But thats a lot of hard dedicated work...this includes the whole region btw (but Pakistan especially it seems).

 

[ito]

what about per capita future forecast?

According to the same report the fastest growing economics until 2050 will be India, Vietnam and BD.

 

[khanz]

thx for your answer. Still pakistan has one of the youngest populations in the world and one of the youngest countries itself with much richer lands and labor force compared to egypt. The capacity and potential for growth is much higher than them- If not in 2030 then slowly i'm sure eventually it will overtake egypt in the future .

 

[Danish saleem]

not per capita but gdp growth data forcast

thats my point bro,

in future Pakistan per capita will be increase sharply as compere to India, because of difference in population.

 

[proud_indian]

thats my point bro,

in future Pakistan per capita will be increase sharply as compere to India, because of difference in population.

and how did you deduce that?

because the chart I posted above that you are quoting says otherwise.

 

[Nilgiri]

thats my point bro,

in future Pakistan per capita will be increase sharply as compere to India, because of difference in population.

That's not how it works. You are still dividing the cake you are able to make by the same base as today (plus whatever population growth takes place in the interim).

If per capita growth in one country is 7% and another is 5% per year...country A is doing better per person (growth rate wise) no matter how many people it has compared to country B.

If anything India's lower population growth favours the net per capita growth over time (on top of the raw economic growth).

 

[Bilal Bajwa]

well that is fictional estimates Pakistan will be far more higher than the 19th number after CPEC in future

 

[Nike]

let me being blunt here, Pakistan basic problems is their low quality of HDI compared to other emerging countries like Indonesia, Vietnam and Philippines. You can said your talents is immeasurable as Pakistan is the only Muslim majority Country who own and capable to produce Nuclear Weapons. But right now we are talking about your average Joes in which spread at a whole level of Pakistan and every corner. The level of formal education in Pakistan is quite low when comparing to their near peer competitor like Indonesia, Vietnam or Philippine. The basic health access for average person in Pakistan is at worrysome level too, not to mention about other categories in which support the development of Human Development Indexes.

Economy of any Country is being run by your average joes at homes, not by scientists who are nurtured to do their jobs and whose number is only limited at tiny fraction of your whole populations. Meanwhile the elite of Government of any Country is being born from the people, the low quality of people development only bring low quality of elite government.

And for the Pakistani member who puts all their hope too high on CPEC programme, i will say other emerging countries had their own equivalent of infrastructure development programme too and what i know much more ambitious than what Pakistan had. Let me take my Country as an example, Indonesia had a grandeur vision to built Deep Sea Port in every big Islands we had and connecting them with major infrastructure like Railway, Major Airport, Toll way/expressway and connecting them with Market center and Industrial Parks. To supply the energies needed to cater economic growth Gov. had set an ambitious project to adding 35 GW of electricity in 4 years programme and not to mention to built complex industrial center along with Urban transportation comprising of Metro Subways, LRT, BRT and among other. The Gov. had allocated at least half from 400 billion US dollar needed for the completion of project through multiyear scheme 10 year programme. The rest will be financed by private sector and investment from aboard.

What i can said is dont expect other Countries to sit idle in the era of high competition like today

 

[MarcsPakistan]

Insha Allah