Pakistan Stock exchange down again and PKR nosie dive to highest low end ever against Dollar.

[Patriot forever]

Bhai we did and look where Musharf took us from -CCC to B+

Imran Khan is not the person on ground level, smart and action on time. He is good at speech, giving you hope and a mood lifter but he is not the who change anything or even a single reform.


Tell only 1 reform from Imran Khan, which Pakistan is progressing.

If we default the situation will not be the same as 1999. With the Afghan war, energy sector dependability ( we were still taking advantage of dams built in 70's). Our debt repayments burden. Population demands and food security. Take one example how many of people used smart phones back than. There are a lot of factors one needs to look into. A few billion dollars bailout back than vs tens of billions bailout now.
If one thinks this IMF programme is hard, if we go default you will see this programme as a walk in Park in comparison.

We will end up worse than Lebanon.


As far as IK is concerned, these 3 years have brought a lot of fundamental changes.
If you want to talk about economic reforms.

1) Currency
2) Independant SBP with no money printing to date for the last 3 years.

Being the hardest and painful ones but the most crutial ones to determine long
term stability. These are all structural issues that were responsible for the mess we were in for decades.


3) Power sector, not a single new import dependant power plant. Focus back on hydro ( after the 70's) and thar coal. Ones these dams complete will have the same importance as mangla and terbela. ( Not just energy but water and food security).
4) Auto policy
5) Consumer electronics (cell phones etc)
6) Refinery policy an excellent one but is slow due to fiscal constrains. Byco is upgrading as of now with $800m investment. ( Our refineries end up with furnace oil as a byproduct and do not convert all crude into high value added products like petrol diesel, our power plants are forced to burn this otherwise this will greatly impact our refineries. This policy is aimed at addressing this problem in particular. Will save us a lot of forex which we use to import high value added gasoline or diesel).
7) TERF
8) RDA



You might say oh currency went to 169 policy is a fail, that's pure lack of understanding. Our economy is new to it as time passes it will get and more stable. As tough as it gets this is the only way forward.

 

[VCheng]

Pakistan will never get the kind of support Argentina got, we will probably fare a lot worse than what Lebanon is going through right now.

Not really. Nobody gets any support outside of basic economic principles with the global system.

 

[Patriot forever]

Lebanon never had export or remittance, they depended on aid, loans and FDI.

Pakistan has exports, RDA and remittances ,therefore, Inshallah Pakistan will never default but God forbid that if default than it will source of income in dollar as well but yes things will be expensive and ratings will downgrade us.

Isn't this the same direction we took especially from 2013-2018. Growth dependant on Aid, loans and FDI ( that too extremely wrong wrong kind of sovereign backed high rate of return instead of seed funding or market enabled), PSDP spending to achieve growth, with policies as fixed currency IPP's etc

 

[Patriot forever]

Not really. Nobody gets any support outside of basic economic principles with the global system.

Imagine going through IMF programme after default The type of imbalance it will create given our social fragmentation, extremely inefficient mode of governance ( parliamentary democracy) and security threats.

 

[Desprado]

Isn't this the same direction we took especially from 2013-2018. Growth dependant on Aid, loans and FDI ( that too extremely wrong wrong kind of sovereign backed high rate of return instead of seed funding or market enabled), PSDP spending to achieve growth, with policies as fixed currency IPP's etc

No as both PTI and PMLN did same PMLN spend 20 billion and PTI spend 6.8 billion dollar to stable PKR.

Lebanon cause is different because even in PMLN Pakistan did export, remittance and secondary investment etc ,however, Lebanon is different because there was no government, no army, no finance, no export when country was running good and lack of remittances, they depended on bonds, FDI and loans.

 

[Patriot forever]

No as both PTI and PMLN did same PMLN spend 20 billion and PTI spend 6.8 billion dollar to stable PKR.

Lebanon cause is different because even in PMLN Pakistan did export, remittance and secondary investment etc ,however, Lebanon is different because there was no government, no army, no finance, no export when country was running good and lack of remittances, they depended on bonds, FDI and loans.

1) It clearly shows a lack of understanding on your part about currency. Difference between maintaining liquidity in forex markets and protecting against unnatural outflows ( which is literally the job of SBP and the reason why every country keeps reserves) VS currency manipulation. That's why I say the most important thing to understand the impact is REER value of currency.
SBP net injection is just $2b in 3 years. They bought around $4b as well, they did not let the high inflows deteriorate REER value and bought dollars as well. This did not happen in plmn. This is why they are taking pre emptive measures to maintain macroeconomic stability in these times of high liquidity locally and global inflationary cycle.

2) Its the deficit that matters a country can have $100b in inflows vs $200b in outflows will end up like Lebanon regardless of $100b in exports.

 

[arjunk]

PMLN, PPP or PTI will not win. You see in 2022 that i new kind of party system will come because all are failures

I was thinking if not PMLN, religious party, martial law or China style government will come in place.

i am so happy to see our great economy growing so fast . dollar will be 210pkr when pti will leave

Ghabrao mat. It will only grow to Imran Khan's height in centimetres (188).

 

[VCheng]

Imagine going through IMF programme after default The type of imbalance it will create given our social fragmentation, extremely inefficient mode of governance ( parliamentary democracy) and security threats.

Pakistan has never completed an IMF program successfully to date. If it ever had, it would be on a sounder financial footing now. The IMF prescription may be bitter, but it is based on sound principles, and Pakistan will never do well until its gets its basics right financially. Making excuses for such unsustainable imbalances are just that - excuses. They will never work.

 

[Verve]

Bhai we did and look where Musharf took us from -CCC to B+

It took Mushy 6 years to achieve that, and he was a dictator! IK has wafer thin majority.

In Mushy's earlier years, flight of capital was a major issue. It takes time for long term policies to bear fruit.

But you have bugz e Imran so carry on.

 

[PradoTLC]

I think it’s time for every Pakistani to be a millionaire in PKR….. if you know what I mean…!!

Nawaz Sharif decided to destroy country's economy when Army decided to remove him and get Imran Khan selected. Before that the country was really smooth sailing and improving. Our relation with India was even getting better and better.

wow .. and i taught indians were deluded with their F-16 story.

What did Nawaz sharif did which IK is unable to correct todate?

the took more loans and build stupid projects which his cronies made money off.

Pakistan has gotten out of it, it just needs to keep control over CAD. GDP growth will stay at 2-3%, even 4% is not good for CAD. Need to take these years to bring governance reforms, land, police, industrial and whatever is there to reorganize and make better. Economic boom will happen then inshallah.

Army is a big mafia in the country which is out of control of the government, one of the issues with the country that need to be dealt with over time.

Even ISI is out of control, our people take pride in ISI saying how they defeated the soviets and how they are their own organization out of government's control. This is not a good thing. ISI acts own its own and makes things worse at times. Army uses them even to control elections like they did for Imran Khan. They are even failing right now at counter insurgency, TTP and BLA having a field day.

ISI screwed Nawj....

a good thing