'Pakistan should ask India to provide transit trade route'

[Maritimer]

If India wants to become bigger economy she will have to resolve the Kashmir issue and trade with Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and other CAR member countries otherwise its not possible and China will beat them always

India's bilateral trade with former Soviets, Afghanistan and Iran increased 30% to touch $25 billion (19 bn imports and 6 bn exports) last year, without any transit route through Pakistan. Bulk of this trade is import of gas and minerals for consumption in refineries, LNG terminals and industries in India's west coast. Given the security risks of land route and poor infrastructure in Afghanistan, the Chahbahar port has proven to be a viable alternative route for India.

On the export front, 40% of India's total exports are in global services mainly catering to US and EU which do not require any trade routes. CARs are still very small economies to consume huge volumes of merchandise.

 

[dabong1]

India's bilateral trade with former Soviets, Afghanistan and Iran increased 30% to touch $25 billion (19 bn imports and 6 bn exports) last year, without any transit route through Pakistan. Bulk of this trade is import of gas and minerals for consumption in refineries, LNG terminals and industries in India's west coast. Given the security risks of land route and poor infrastructure in Afghanistan, the Chahbahar port has proven to be a viable alternative route for India.

On the export front, 40% of India's total exports are in global services mainly catering to US and EU which do not require any trade routes. CARs are still very small economies to consume huge volumes of merchandise.

If thats the case then why are the indians asking for a transit route?

 

[Maritimer]

If thats the case then why are the indians asking for a transit route?

The transit trade came up when Zardari-Karzai met in Washington. NATO troops in Afghanistan is trying to diversify its suppliers by opening a route to India. India has not made any specific demand for transit trade.

India-Pakistan trade has been an item for discussion in most bilateral meetings and under the SAARC framework and is used as a confidence building measure for achieving peaceful co-existence. Nothing to do with trade with Central Asia.

 

[Reddy]

Most of the writers on this thread think that pakistan is doing a favour to india by allowing transit facilities to afghanistan ( It's not even declared)
Neither would India be doing a favour if it allows transit trade to Bangladesh/Nepal/Bhutan.
These facilities are provided only if make economic sense to both the countries.
More trade between countries will help better relations, better goods, better services. There should be free flow of goods and services between all SAFTA countries ( like European Union ) There will be short term job losses in some sectors in some countires but they will be able to get better products.

 

[TopCat]

What kind of trade we are talking about? Nepal and Bhutan's economy so small and Bangladesh produces almost similar category product as Pakistan does. so there is a little room for increased trade even if India allows its teritory as transit. Pakistan first must increase trade with India and open up the border and vice versa. Then as things moves forward, SAFTA should look more into regional integration and asian highway could play a role on that.

 

[Omar1984]

India needs this transit trade route through Pakistan much more than Pakistan needs a transit trade route through India.

Dont forget how obsessed Nehru and his daughter, Indira Gandhi, were about NWFP because NWFP is a gateway to the resource rich Central Asia.

 

[Gin ka Pakistan]

One big reason of India wanting to divide Baluchistan is to get to central Asia through it.

 

[xebex]

Look its the same old ban overhead flights issue again.

India needs to go over Pakistan a lot more than Pakistan needs to go over India.

India banned overhead flights to Pakistan back in 2002 and Pakistan reciprocated. India banned 12 flights while we killed their 112 flights. We'll get to Bangladesh somehow in a round about way the rest we can reach through China.

But cutting of access to Afghanistan would just leave the thousands of Indian agents in Afghanistan stranded. Bangladesh is already on our side and against India. We need to not hand over the influence over Afghanistan to them in a platter.

Peace is all good, being smart about the basics is better.

How exactly u guys gonna get to Bangladesh? maybe through Burma?? forget it....Bangladesh-Burma relationship is like a miniaturized version of India-Pakistan relationship. As u may know they both are staring at each other over the border. Ethier via Bay of Bangal or via India...there is no other way around mate, if Pakistan want to get to BD.

 

[Zob]

fair enough PAKISTAN gets the transit route...what would india get in return...because hey even CRAP ain't free these days my friend....

as for trade with nepal bhutan etc we need to understand that pakistan can send things through china from the karakorum....longer but do able.

as for EUROPEAN UNION...well my friend they resolved there differences before they established the trade routes and one currency....

no one qurraels over the RHINELANDS(in our case kashmir) so yes until and unless you resolves disputes animosities on both sides will be there..... and trade routes will just sound like a nice dream....

 

[Hyde]

India's bilateral trade with former Soviets, Afghanistan and Iran increased 30% to touch $25 billion (19 bn imports and 6 bn exports) last year, without any transit route through Pakistan. Bulk of this trade is import of gas and minerals for consumption in refineries, LNG terminals and industries in India's west coast. Given the security risks of land route and poor infrastructure in Afghanistan, the Chahbahar port has proven to be a viable alternative route for India.

On the export front, 40% of India's total exports are in global services mainly catering to US and EU which do not require any trade routes. CARs are still very small economies to consume huge volumes of merchandise.

if thats the case you are proving my point yourself firstly i have a doubt on the figures you mentioned and if its true that means India is importing 74% of total volume while only 26% is being exported to these regions

Now you say they are the small economies, NO My Friend alone Kazakhastan is almost equal the size of India and having 4 times more Per capita income (around $10,000+ ) and how do you import this Gas and minerals? let me know that

I am sure it would have been a lot more cheaper if there was a Gas pipeline but unfortunately you are perhaps filling up in trucks and bringing in a very small quantity............

By importing only India can't make business with such nations, she will have to increase her export to a respectable level and for that what trade route is she going to use? its like 1/4 is being exported by India and 3/4 being imported from these soveign countries.

Believe it or not, India need to make business with these countries to increase her influence on Asia let alone dream of becoming Super Power and for that, They do not have any other cheapest available route except using the Pakistani territory. CARs and Iran alone has the potential to consume large valume of exports from India but India is still importing from these nations

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India badly need to make business with

Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Kazakhastan and other CAR countries and if Kashmir resolution was resolved, Pakistan and Iran would have consumed large potion of current exports of India....... No matter what our circumstances are but still we are the second largest economy in South Asia....... and your neighbours and a Door to travel to CARs, Iran and other Natural resources rich countries

 

[Hyde]

How exactly u guys gonna get to Bangladesh? maybe through Burma?? forget it....Bangladesh-Burma relationship is like a miniaturized version of India-Pakistan relationship. As u may know they both are staring at each other over the border. Ethier via Bay of Bangal or via India...there is no other way around mate, if Pakistan want to get to BD.

well, we don't have to go to Bangladesh, If India is willing to go to CARs they will automatically allow us to use their territory if our politicians take a wise step we don't have to use the long routes anyway

and also don't forget we Pakistani are making almost same products that bangladesh is manufacturing herself so we aren't gonnai make much business unless both economies choose to rely on different products ............ but CARs export is the natural resources first while we Pakistan and India is mostly importing the oil and gas from the total import of the year

Again, we don't need make good business with Bangladesh for now but India do

 

[Maritimer]

if thats the case you are proving my point yourself firstly i have a doubt on the figures you mentioned and if its true that means India is importing 74% of total volume while only 26% is being exported to these regions

You are free to doubt the figures, but these are the facts as reported by India's Commerce Minsitry. India's trade 2008-09 country-wise

Now you say they are the small economies, NO My Friend alone Kazakhastan is almost equal the size of India and having 4 times more Per capita income (around $10,000+ )

Btw, the Indian economy is 9 times bigger than Kazakhstan. In fact, Pakistan's economy is almost same as that of all the five CARs put together. List of countries by GDP

and how do you import this Gas and minerals? let me know that I am sure it would have been a lot more cheaper if there was a Gas pipeline but unfortunately you are perhaps filling up in trucks and bringing in a very small quantity............

What you are saying will work if pipelines already exist. But currently no pipelines exist and the rail gauge systems are different between the CARs and South Asia. The risks and benefits must have been clearly analysed by Indian government while negotiating the IPI and TAPI pipelines. It appears that currently risks outweigh the benefits.

By importing only India can't make business with such nations, she will have to increase her export to a respectable level and for that what trade route is she going to use? its like 1/4 is being exported by India and 3/4 being imported from these soveign countries.

Consuming countries will always have a negative trade balance with supplier countries in a free trade regime. As I said in my earlier post, India's comparative advantage is in outsourcing services to US/EU and not in manufacturing. I'm sure you must be shopping at your local grocer, tell me how much do you sell to the grocer?

Believe it or not, India need to make business with these countries to increase her influence on Asia let alone dream of becoming Super Power and for that, They do not have any other cheapest available route except using the Pakistani territory. CARs and Iran alone has the potential to consume large valume of exports from India but India is still importing from these nations

India badly need to make business with Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Kazakhastan and other CAR countries and if Kashmir resolution was resolved, Pakistan and Iran would have consumed large potion of current exports of India....... No matter what our circumstances are but still we are the second largest economy in South Asia....... and your neighbours and a Door to travel to CARs, Iran and other Natural resources rich countries

Yes, I agree with you that increased business in the region will enhance India's position as a power. Currently it seems India's trade policy is to tap these markets by being able to produce good quality products to match the tastes and utility of these countries. Finding the cheapest route will be a secondary consideration. As and when the two-way volumes increase and the benefits outweigh the risks, India will definitely look for the trade routes. Till then, status quo.

 

[jarnee]

Bro.... the only way to reduce friction is to get the kashmir issue sorted.
Say we do start to trade in large numbers and have people exchanges ect the core issue of kashmir will come up sooner or later again and we will be back to stage one.

BTW - what is the solution of Kashmir, i always keep hearing that .. you keep yours we keep ours. Period. do you think India will let go what it has? Or there is a chance that Pakistan can let go its Kashmir?

Independent Kashmir cannot exist as it will be land locked. China will eat it up in one gobble.

So lets not talk what is not possible at least as of now.

Do you think Pakistan or you will give up the claim of its Kashmir if Kashmiri's decide to go independent state?

 

[dabong1]

Most of the writers on this thread think that pakistan is doing a favour to india by allowing transit facilities to afghanistan ( It's not even declared)
Neither would India be doing a favour if it allows transit trade to Bangladesh/Nepal/Bhutan.
These facilities are provided only if make economic sense to both the countries.
More trade between countries will help better relations, better goods, better services. There should be free flow of goods and services between all SAFTA countries ( like European Union ) There will be short term job losses in some sectors in some countires but they will be able to get better products.

India has improved trade with china in the billions years in years out but has it led to less spending by india on the "china threat"......no

The argument that free trade will lead to better relations is flawed,only by sorting the core issue of kashmir will there be true peace.

 

[dabong1]

BTW - what is the solution of Kashmir, i always keep hearing that .. you keep yours we keep ours. Period. do you think India will let go what it has? Or there is a chance that Pakistan can let go its Kashmir?

Independent Kashmir cannot exist as it will be land locked. China will eat it up in one gobble.

So lets not talk what is not possible at least as of now.

Do you think Pakistan or you will give up the claim of its Kashmir if Kashmiri's decide to go independent state?

So you want to stick to the status quo?......non stop war.