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Pakistans game of high stakes
By James Lamont in New Delhi
Published: March 25 2010 17:28 | Last updated: March 25 2010 17:28
Pakistans former military rulers and the current civilian leadership seldom agree publicly. Yet they are as one in their view that Pakistan a state close to broken is as powerful as it has been for 20 years.
In the weeks after the London conference on Afghanistan in January, Pakistans bargaining power has risen markedly.
Islamabad senses that the US and Nato need its help to negotiate with Taliban militants and bring peace to Afghanistan. Nato troops are tired of fighting in southern Afghanistan. The war is ever more unpopular in the US and the UK and other European countries. As the casualties rise, Pakistans leaders have identified the Taliban as a lever to extract money from the west in return for halting the war.
Pakistans co-operation comes at a price. The first is the ascendancy of General Ashfaq Kayani. The powerful general in effect led strategic talks with Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, Robert Gates, defence secretary, and James Jones, national security adviser, in Washington on Thursday.
The second is a long wish list. Pakistan wants improved trade access to European and US markets, the faster delivery of more than $15bn (11bn, £10bn) in aid; military hardware and intelligence co-operation. It seeks greater energy capacity, including a civil nuclear deal similar to one agreed with India, in the interests of regional stability.
The list does not end there. Pakistan wants recognition for its part in efforts against extremism and terrorism in spite of a history of support for militant groups behind deadly attacks in Afghanistan and India. It wants the US to talk tough to India about a Taliban role in Afghanistans future and resumption of bilateral peace talks.
Some close allies, such as China, are encouraging Pakistan to make the most of the engagement and resources of the worlds remaining superpower.
That it is doing. Until Pakistan sees the colour of the wests money and is recognised for its role in Afghanistan, it will resist Natos bidding to squeeze the Taliban tighter with expanded military campaigns in Baluchistan and North Waziristan. It argues, sensibly, that it needs to hold territory regained from militants. Gen Kayani, described often as the most powerful man in Pakistan but wise enough to eschew political office, is driving a hard bargain. The US, so far, has welcomed his seat at the table as a sign of the military and civilian leadership being in accord. It is hoping he will break with militant groups to repair what Pakistanis call the trust deficit.
Ahead of Thursdays talks, Pakistan pulled several rabbits out of its hat. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, commander of the Afghan Hezb-i-Islami guerrilla group, who is close to Pakistans intelligence services, has sent envoys to Kabul for peace talks with Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president. Several Afghan Taliban leaders, including Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, have been arrested.
To assuage US fears of nuclear proliferation, an investigation is in the making into A. Q. Khan, the architect of Pakistans nuclear bomb, who is held responsible for passing nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea.
The ability of Pakistans leadership to conjure these rabbits is impressive but also a little disconcerting. Some analysts scoff at what they consider blatant manipulation by a mercenary nation that takes US assistance while fuelling the war in Afghanistan. They say that far from Pakistan being on its knees in the face of militant attacks, its leadership is gaining in self-belief and becoming more strident in its international demands.
The sense of potency in Islamabad is hard to fathom amid suicide bombings, a war footing and a weakened economy. Pakistan is a country in which the middle class is fearful of a shift towards religious conservatism and where international institutions find recruiting expatriates near impossible. Foreigners are not allowed, and would not feel safe, to travel beyond Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad.
Ms Clinton has to judge whether that confidence reflects a more unified nation getting on its feet and on terms with its allies and enemies. Such boldness could, however, as easily belong to the calculating leadership of a misgoverned nation that remains harmful to itself and others.
FT.com / Global insight - Pakistan?s game of high stakes
By James Lamont in New Delhi
Published: March 25 2010 17:28 | Last updated: March 25 2010 17:28
Pakistans former military rulers and the current civilian leadership seldom agree publicly. Yet they are as one in their view that Pakistan a state close to broken is as powerful as it has been for 20 years.
In the weeks after the London conference on Afghanistan in January, Pakistans bargaining power has risen markedly.
Islamabad senses that the US and Nato need its help to negotiate with Taliban militants and bring peace to Afghanistan. Nato troops are tired of fighting in southern Afghanistan. The war is ever more unpopular in the US and the UK and other European countries. As the casualties rise, Pakistans leaders have identified the Taliban as a lever to extract money from the west in return for halting the war.
Pakistans co-operation comes at a price. The first is the ascendancy of General Ashfaq Kayani. The powerful general in effect led strategic talks with Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, Robert Gates, defence secretary, and James Jones, national security adviser, in Washington on Thursday.
The second is a long wish list. Pakistan wants improved trade access to European and US markets, the faster delivery of more than $15bn (11bn, £10bn) in aid; military hardware and intelligence co-operation. It seeks greater energy capacity, including a civil nuclear deal similar to one agreed with India, in the interests of regional stability.
The list does not end there. Pakistan wants recognition for its part in efforts against extremism and terrorism in spite of a history of support for militant groups behind deadly attacks in Afghanistan and India. It wants the US to talk tough to India about a Taliban role in Afghanistans future and resumption of bilateral peace talks.
Some close allies, such as China, are encouraging Pakistan to make the most of the engagement and resources of the worlds remaining superpower.
That it is doing. Until Pakistan sees the colour of the wests money and is recognised for its role in Afghanistan, it will resist Natos bidding to squeeze the Taliban tighter with expanded military campaigns in Baluchistan and North Waziristan. It argues, sensibly, that it needs to hold territory regained from militants. Gen Kayani, described often as the most powerful man in Pakistan but wise enough to eschew political office, is driving a hard bargain. The US, so far, has welcomed his seat at the table as a sign of the military and civilian leadership being in accord. It is hoping he will break with militant groups to repair what Pakistanis call the trust deficit.
Ahead of Thursdays talks, Pakistan pulled several rabbits out of its hat. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, commander of the Afghan Hezb-i-Islami guerrilla group, who is close to Pakistans intelligence services, has sent envoys to Kabul for peace talks with Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president. Several Afghan Taliban leaders, including Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, have been arrested.
To assuage US fears of nuclear proliferation, an investigation is in the making into A. Q. Khan, the architect of Pakistans nuclear bomb, who is held responsible for passing nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea.
The ability of Pakistans leadership to conjure these rabbits is impressive but also a little disconcerting. Some analysts scoff at what they consider blatant manipulation by a mercenary nation that takes US assistance while fuelling the war in Afghanistan. They say that far from Pakistan being on its knees in the face of militant attacks, its leadership is gaining in self-belief and becoming more strident in its international demands.
The sense of potency in Islamabad is hard to fathom amid suicide bombings, a war footing and a weakened economy. Pakistan is a country in which the middle class is fearful of a shift towards religious conservatism and where international institutions find recruiting expatriates near impossible. Foreigners are not allowed, and would not feel safe, to travel beyond Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad.
Ms Clinton has to judge whether that confidence reflects a more unified nation getting on its feet and on terms with its allies and enemies. Such boldness could, however, as easily belong to the calculating leadership of a misgoverned nation that remains harmful to itself and others.
FT.com / Global insight - Pakistan?s game of high stakes