Pakistan records a historic growth (total export of $15.4b) in textile exports. With highest ever of $1.66b in June.

[crankthatskunk]

Should have already been close to it by now, had it not been for the self-acclaimed genius Gen. Musharraf. The decades of power shortages forced the small-medium setups to shutdown and most of the foreign brands to move base to Bangladesh, etc.

It is not as simple as you put it. At the time of Musharaf, the shortages may not had been that acute. None-the-less, it still doesn't take away from the fact that full capacity agreements with IPPPs hurting Pakistan badly.
Secondly, the double hit is that even though the generation capacity was increased, there was no investment in transmission networks. Therefore, even if the IPPPs generate electricity to full of their capacity, they still cannot transmit it. So government pays them for not generating electricity.

This sure look like Geniuses at work, right!!!

 

[krash]

Pakistan exports reached their record lows 7 years AFTER Musharaf left
Can you really blame Musharaf for what happened in the mid 2010,s ?

Have you checked the total textile exports in Musharraf's years? Also in 2009? Let's not throw around terms willy nilly. Even by the OP the "record low" would be in FY2011-12 at $12.35b, it's just not colored red for political point scoring. Not that the 12.52b only a year ago was much better than the 12.45b from 2016.

Even if the term held, major projects, such as power generation systems, have lead times in years. You can't buy them at the local corner shop today and install them tomorrow. You start building them years before you need them. Industries also do not decide to leave today for what you did yesterday and are gone tomorrow. Takes them years to reach their financial breaking point. Neither do they return or start exporting the moment you have enough electricity. The lack of electricity seen after Musharraf was exactly because Musharraf did not build anything during his time. The industries that moved or shut down after him did so after years of unsustainability during his time and the years after owing to the absence of electricity he did not build for. Likewise, the capacity that we see today is from projects started before PTI. The projects initiated by PTI will give results in years to come. It's a very simple concept.

Edit:

Let me walk you through it. The lack of exports in 2015 happened due to the decrease in production in 2014. The decrease in production in 2014 resulted from the businesses moving or shutting down in 2013. The businesses that moved/shutdown in 2013 did so after the expected losses (or loss of revenue) for the coming years, after years of outages, finally equaled the cost of moving their entire operations to another country. Let's underestimate this at three years. 2010? What year would you say we should have started building power generation units to have enough power in 2010? In fact, what year do you think we should have started planning to build those power generation systems? What year should we have known that 2010 would see crippling power outages?

In reality the processes would have taken longer.

PMLN had a golden opportunity in the form of low oil prices but they blew it up on subsidizing imports and consumption over boosting exports

PMLN did what it has always done and will always do. What else do you expect from them? Still the power shortage was not their doing. The massive corruption in the new power projects is. We are discussing the shortage and not the corruption. No amount of PMLN's corruption will exonerate Musharraf's corruption and idiocy, or vice versa.

 

[krash]

It is not as simple as you put it. At the time of Musharaf, the shortages may not had been that acute.

"May not have been". Okay.

Regardless, were Musharraf and his entire team incompetent enough to believe that "since the load shedding isn't that bad today, there is no need to build any new generation systems for tomorrow"? Pretty sure you yourself can plan better than that.

None-the-less, it still doesn't take away from the fact that full capacity agreements with IPPPs hurting Pakistan badly.

I thought we were discussing the destruction of Pakistan's textile industry due to the massive power outages. Not the corruption committed and enabled by PMLN through IPPPs. While we're at it, would you like to discuss Zardari's corruption in the Mirage deal as well? Nawaz's embarrassing hair transplant?

Secondly, the double hit is that even though the generation capacity was increased, there was no investment in transmission networks. Therefore, even if the IPPPs generate electricity to full of their capacity, they still cannot transmit it. So government pays them for not generating electricity.

Was transmission inefficiency the reason behind the massive outages and the resultant downfall of the textile industry in Pakistan? Or the +12hr load-shedding every day?

This sure look like Geniuses at work, right!!!

It's a simple concept, intuitive, natural even. Yet the Pakistani awam's only priority is to inexplicably defend the corrupt moron that they support by pointing fingers at the equally corrupt moron that someone else supports. Loses luster when debating one who does not support any corrupt moron. Sadly takes the country exactly where it is today.

 

[SQ8]

"May not have been". Okay.

Regardless, were Musharraf and his entire team incompetent enough to believe that since the load shedding "isn't that bad today so there is no need to build any new generation systems for tomorrow"? Pretty sure you yourself can plan better than that.



I thought we were discussing the destruction of Pakistan's textile industry due to the massive power outages. Not the corruption committed and enabled by PMLN through IPPPs. While we're at it, would you also like to discuss Zardari's corruption in the Mirage deal as well? Nawaz's embarrassing hair transplant?



Was transmission inefficiency the reason behind the massive outages and the resultant downfall of the textile industry in Pakistan?



It's a simple concept, intuitive, evolutionary even. Yet the Pakistani awam's only priority is to defend the corrupt moron that they support by pointing fingers at the corrupt moron that someone else supports. Loses luster when debating one who does not support any corrupt moron. Sadly takes the country exactly where it is today

Have a look at shortcut aziz’s fluff economics as well - it will turn out that entire technocrat gambit was hollow.

 

[krash]

Have a look at shortcut aziz’s fluff economics as well - it will turn out that entire technocrat gambit was hollow.

Hot air just like his liege's statements. Deflated the moment they stopped blowing into them.

 

[crankthatskunk]

Regardless, were Musharraf and his entire team incompetent enough to believe that "since the load shedding isn't that bad today, there is no need to build any new generation systems for tomorrow"? Pretty sure you yourself can plan better than that.

Like I said, they may have been, but the fact is Musharaf was trying to get the "Dams" projects going, which was a far better idea than having expensive IPPPs skimming off Pakistani states for 25/30 years with contracts, which could not have been written better by enemies of Pakistan.

I thought we were discussing the destruction of Pakistan's textile industry due to the massive power outages. Not the corruption committed and enabled by PMLN through IPPPs. While we're at it, would you like to discuss Zardari's corruption in the Mirage deal as well? Nawaz's embarrassing hair transplant?

Both are interlinked Mr clever. The textile industry got destroyed in the past due to two main reasons, shortage of electricity and price of electricity. Which made Pakistani manufacturer uncompetitive.

Was transmission inefficiency the reason behind the massive outages and the resultant downfall of the textile industry in Pakistan? Or the +12hr load-shedding every day?

Yes they are one of major reason. Tell us why NS and PMLN signed deals for so many power plants, when they didn't have the means to transmit all the newly generated electricity!!
In the process created massive problems for the state of Pakistan. Are you blind that you cannot see the massive "Circular Debt" and how much money in the budgets are wasted to make those capacity payments!! Is this figment of our imaginations!!

It's a simple concept, intuitive, natural even. Yet the Pakistani awam's only priority is to inexplicably defend the corrupt moron that they support by pointing fingers at the equally corrupt moron that someone else supports. Loses luster when debating one who does not support any corrupt moron. Sadly takes the country exactly where it is today.

So in your dreams world, one should not point the fingers at any corrupt moron, in case the corrupt morons get offended!! This is a wonderful logic.
I am sure Pakistan would get rid of all its ills by following your logic.
I bow down to you superior thinking, I must admit. What a genius approach.[/QUOTE]

 

[Dr-who]

Musharraf did intend to build power projects which was the kalabagh dam. It would have provided with cheap electricity, but it was objected by religious parties, pmln PPP. Don't know what was the stance of PTI.
Had kalabagh been built, then the blackouts+business shift+circular debt issue would not have happened.
When Musharraf came to power, he had to face the same issues that PTI had to face, that of IPP and their expensive electricity, these IPP projects were the product of PPP.

 

[FuturePAF]

Should have already been close to it by now, had it not been for the self-acclaimed genius Gen. Musharraf. The decades of power shortages forced the small-medium setups to shutdown and most of the foreign brands to move base to Bangladesh, etc.

Hopefully with Chinese investment into Iran, transmission lines (to supply lower priced Iranian electricity) can be built into the Gwadar SEZ, and also boost the textile industry further. Connecting Iranian supplied power to the grid can allow Pakistan to lower it electricity costs and speed up Pakistan’s growth.

 

[Pakistansdefender]

Here is a rumor, you don't have to believe it.

Textile industry has imported $3 billion worth of new machinery to be installed during fiscal year 2020-21. When this machinery is operational, APTMA is hoping the total textile exports for the fiscal year of 2021-22 would be $19 billion.

It is not a rumor. Machinary is only bought through some government subcidy. That is given only when you book your machinary and show your documents. So all the data is tracked. It is all recorded. This much machinary has arrived and would be installed next year.

 

[Crimson Blue]

It is not a rumor.

I did not want to make a bold claim.

There are many Pakistani members here on this forum who started having fits of rage when they hear any positive development about Pakistan. So I just called it a rumor, many people would sigh with relief if a positive development is only a rumor.

 

[Meengla]

Power outages were common in 2000s, 1990s, 1980s and before.

Indeed.
In the 70s, I remember using the old fashioned lanterns (Laltein) where you would lift the glass and lit the fiber (forgetting its name!) using matches (Maachis); the fuel would be kerosene oil. Happened so often even when we were arguably the most modern city of Pakistan (Karachi).

Bhutto's 'nationalization' had even the kerosene oil in short supply; as was 'bajra' (millet) for pigeon food. The 'ration card' had quota for every house. But I digress!

But then things were so simple and good: 'Woh Kaghiz ki Kishti, woh baarish ka pani'.

 

[MastanKhan]

You can't blame everything on PMLN/PPP and go back to sleep. Kalabagh was not, is not, and will never be the end all, be all. Neither did Musharraf build it when he had all the power to. Used it for his own political gimmicks at the end though, didn't he? It still does not exist, btw, but we have power.

The shortages did not happen over night, Musharraf just did not have the priority or sense to care for them. "I admit it was our mistake" - Musharraf.



Can you list the projects and work done to mitigate the ever increasing shortfall during Musharraf's time? Could you also please provide the years when Lahore and Karachi saw +12hrs of load-shedding every day, including winters? Or when we saw a mass exodus and shutdowns of industries and businesses due to lack of electricity? Could you please let Musharraf know that it was not his fault? He keeps admitting that it was.

Like I said, you can't scapegoat the usual suspects and pretend everything is ok.



Thanks for that compelling argument. Carry on.

Hi,

The big shortage did happen over nite---afer 9/11 jobs became abundant in GCC---money coming in---people buying electronics equipment, A/C's cell phones and what not

 

[krash]

Like I said, they may have been, but the fact is Musharaf was trying to get the "Dams" projects going, which was a far better idea than having expensive IPPPs skimming off Pakistani states for 25/30 years with contracts, which could not have been written better by enemies of Pakistan.

Musharraf did intend to build power projects which was the kalabagh dam.

Sure he was. Please list the measures he took, or anything that he did, to get the dams built. Anything more than lip service, that is.

Both are interlinked Mr clever. The textile industry got destroyed in the past due to two main reasons, shortage of electricity and price of electricity. Which made Pakistani manufacturer uncompetitive.

Yes they are one of major reason. Tell us why NS and PMLN signed deals for so many power plants, when they didn't have the means to transmit all the newly generated electricity!!
In the process created massive problems for the state of Pakistan. Are you blind that you cannot see the massive "Circular Debt" and how much money in the budgets are wasted to make those capacity payments!! Is this figment of our imaginations!!

I'm sorry, my time is too valuable to waste on hyperbolic, uneducated, and nonsensical statements. I'd be more than happy to respond when you can form a coherent argument, or at least one that has anything to do with what is being discussed.

So in your dreams world, one should not point the fingers at any corrupt moron, in case the corrupt morons get offended!! This is a wonderful logic.
I am sure Pakistan would get rid of all its ills by following your logic.
I bow down to you superior thinking, I must admit. What a genius approach.

..............Anyway.

When Musharraf came to power, he had to face the same issues that PTI had to face, that of IPP and their expensive electricity, these IPP projects were the product of PPP.

Musharraf faced the problem of IPPs' and their expensive electricity when they did not exist? "these IPP projects were the product of PPP".

Please also explain how the expensive electricity from IPPs causes electricity shortages. Then explain how and why manufacturers are moving back to Pakistan and the industry is recovering when the electricity today is exponentially more expensive than in the time of Musharraf.

Hopefully with Chinese investment into Iran, transmission lines (to supply lower priced Iranian electricity) can be built into the Gwadar SEZ, and also boost the textile industry further. Connecting Iranian supplied power to the grid can allow Pakistan to lower it electricity costs and speed up Pakistan’s growth.

And even more importantly, at least for the relatively immediate future, the dams up north for the already established industrial zones. If the reports are true and not the usual fluff then we are already in recovery. Will still take decades to heal completely.

Hi,

The big shortage did happen over nite---afer 9/11 jobs became abundant in GCC---money coming in---people buying electronics equipment, A/C's cell phones and what not

Doesn't seem to be the case. The remittances did not increase substantially until a fair few years after the shortages.

Pakistan Remittances

Remittances in Pakistan decreased to 2940 USD Million in August from 2995.20 USD Million in July of 2024. This page provides - Pakistan Remittances - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

These shortages were forecasted as far back as the early 90s. The increase in demand was natural. Nothing remarkable about the consumption increase, except the hits it took from the industries collapsing and the reduction in generation from existing systems. The demand has in fact been suppressed from the lack of power; no electricity -> no industrial growth or industrial regression -> lower or negative rate of consumption increase.

Pakistan Electricity Consumption: Total | Economic Indicators | CEIC

Pakistan Electricity Consumption: Total data was reported at 83,109.000 GWh in Jun 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 114,300.000 GWh for Jun 2023. Pakistan Electricity Consumption: Total data is updated yearly, averaging 71,541.500 GWh (Median) from Jun 1991 to 2024, with...

www.ceicdata.com

 

[FuturePAF]

Sure he was. Please list the measures he took, or anything that he did, to get the dams built. Anything more than lip service, that is.



I'm sorry, my time is far too valuable to waste on hyperbolic, uneducated, and nonsensical statements. I'd be more than happy to respond when you can form a coherent argument, or at least one that has anything to do with what is being discussed.




..............Anyway.




Musharraf faced the problem of IPPs' and their expensive electricity when they did not exist? "these IPP projects were the product of PPP".

Please also explain how the expensive electricity from IPPs causes electricity shortages. Then explain how and why manufacturers are moving back to Pakistan and the industry is recovering when the electricity today is exponentially more expensive than in the time of Musharraf.



And even more importantly, at least for the relatively immediate future, the dams up north for the already established industrial zones. If reports are true, we are already in recovery. Will still take decades to heal completely.



Doesn't seem to be the case. The remittances did not increase substantially until a fair few years after the shortages.

View attachment 764381

Pakistan Remittances

Remittances in Pakistan decreased to 2940 USD Million in August from 2995.20 USD Million in July of 2024. This page provides - Pakistan Remittances - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

These shortages were forecasted as early as the early 90s. The increase in demand was natural. Nothing remarkable about the yearly consumption curve, except the hits it took from the industries collapsing.

View attachment 764398

Pakistan Electricity Consumption: Total | Economic Indicators | CEIC

Pakistan Electricity Consumption: Total data was reported at 83,109.000 GWh in Jun 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 114,300.000 GWh for Jun 2023. Pakistan Electricity Consumption: Total data is updated yearly, averaging 71,541.500 GWh (Median) from Jun 1991 to 2024, with...

www.ceicdata.com

We need a plan to average 7% annual growth year on year for the next 30 years if we are to take at least minimal advantage of our demographic divided.

 

[Zibago]

Let me walk you through it. The lack of exports in 2015 happened due to the decrease in production in 2014. The decrease in production in 2014 resulted from the businesses moving or shutting down in 2013. The businesses that moved/shutdown in 2013 did so after the expected losses (or loss of revenue) for the coming years, after years of outages, finally equaled the cost of moving their entire operations to another country. Let's underestimate this at three years. 2010? What year would you say we should have started building power generation units to have enough power in 2010? In fact, what year do you think we should have started planning to build those power generation systems? What year should we have known that 2010 would see crippling power outages?;
The thing is PMLN never prioritized exports in its last tenure they kept an inflated currency just to make consumption cheap and achieved its growth target mainly on back of public spending. Such short sighted measure do get public support but in the longrun are poison for a healthy economy

I am sure the fantastic IPP deals that made input cost extremely expensive alongwith an overvalued currency in the mind 2010 had nothing to do with our industry being uncompetitive but sure what happened in 2013 can be blamed on the guy before 2007 not the guy between 2007 and 2013

We need a plan to average 7% annual growth year on year for the next 30 years if we are to take at least minimal advantage of our demographic divided.

Growth has to be sustainable and not an import and consumption led boom/bust cycle