Look, you have to stop people from leaving somehow. Yeah globally competitive salary is not gonna be cheap but if you don't do it people will keep leaving. Which is worse, less money or less people? Your call.
Debt is gonna be there no matter what, and you cannot cut education expenses either, in fact education and health expense probably has to go up.
PAY THEM FROM WHERE?!!! We are going back in a circle. We have -ve money. We don't have money for expense that we will incur right now. Our FX reserves stand at $10 billion right now ($16 billion including all the banks in Pakistan). We can't use that, since that is being used to cover import bill. We can't pay using money from other department (education, health) as they are already low, even though the budget allocated for them this year was high.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/671249-forex-reserves-fall-to-16-705bln
Another thing. Even if we pay people to stay here, why would they stay? There is no infrastructure setup for them to work here, no industry, no school to teach. Gov is currently is working on bringing back basic infrastructures of economy. There has been no investment in any sectors for the past couple of years. As a result, lot of manufacturing shifted to other countries. All these sectors died because previous gov prioritize importing everything, rather then focusing on the local industries.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/archive/print/622007-over-40pc-pak-textile-units-relocate-to-bangladesh
Gov is working on bring back those manufactures. There are some industry in which China is declining, and Pakistan is working on filling those.
https://www.brecorder.com/2020/03/0...rts-opportunity-for-pakistans-textile-sector/
Only solution I can see is to somehow increase tax collection. I cannot see any other solution for that. Use extra tax revenue to pay off debt quickly and make it a priority to start paying Pakistanis globally competitive salaries and they will stop leaving
This has been happening. Increase in tax collection. Simplify filing, removing corruption. You can now file your taxes using a app which is like a setup wizard with pics. Its very easy now. The corruption, you may heard there was reshuffling of staff last year all over FBR. It was done because of this. Corruption is rooted deep in FBR. Before if your total tax came to 100,000 rupee, you could just bribe the tax man with 50,000 rupee, and he will mark it in the system as having paid. This was going on for years. And it was not just individuals, big companies as well. In 2016, only 19% of registered companies paid their taxes. Remaining didn't. This was because of corruption and a weak tax system. Both issue being worked on by the gov. Its a long overdue problem that is being worked on, and will take some time to fix
https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2020/04/30/short-target-fbr-undergoes-massive-reshuffling/
https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk...-officials-transferred-in-historic-reshuffle/
https://www.brecorder.com/2019/10/11/529593/fbr-launches-revised-version-of-app-tax-asaan/
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1972960/6-corporate-tax-evasion-pakistan/
https://www.fbr.gov.pk/pr/17-percent-revenue-increase-40-percent-increa/142259
To increase exports, you need to do a couple of things
1. Devalue your currency. China did this and pissed off US because it increased demand for Chinese exports ie. Trump calling China a currency manipulator. Iran also takes advantage of its cheap currency because it makes it more affordable for other countries to buy Iranian goods, hence why Iran's manufacturing industry is strong.
Its already been devalued slowly, so as not to crash everything all together. You can see the value of the dollar rising these days. Its 165 rupee right now, and expected to hit 170 by end of this month. Gov is not pegging the dollar like Ishaq Dar did using our reserves.
https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2019/06/14/rupee-tumbles-down-to-154-against-the-dollar/
https://dunyanews.tv/en/Business/549714-USD-gains-35-paisa-against-rupee-in-interbank
2. Increase tariffs to build domestic industry and subsidize Pakistani products selling abroad. Once industry is developed, remove tariffs and sign free-trade agreements to increase exports.
New economy zones have been setup to do this. Pharmacy industry has been setup along the new CPEC routes. We have signed FTA with china, and turkey as well (not 100 sure, since it was in talks). We are also in talks with countries in central Asia and Europe.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/616163-pakistan-turkey-fta-talks-in-april-says-razak-dawood
https://www.pbc.org.pk/research/the...istan-must-not-let-emotions-dictate-this-fta/
https://dunyanews.tv/en/Business/49....5b-share-from-Chinese-imports-under-CPFTA-II
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2134644/2-cpfta-phase-ii-help-enhance-exports/
3. Heavily invest in Pakistani startups and Pakistani innovation. Gov't should create a program specifically targeting startups, VC's, and angel investors with gov't backed funding as a way to strengthen economy since Pakistan by population is now largest untapped market in the world. 10 years ago, it was Indonesia, then their economy exploded and anybody who had invested in Indonesian startups made big dividends 10 years later.
There has been such schemes. There was even a program targeting young entrepreneurs.
https://kamyabjawan.gov.pk/home/startup
https://nation.com.pk/16-Sep-2019/pm-to-launch-youth-entrepreneurship-scheme
https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk...o-farmers-smes-among-govts-top-priorities-pm/
4. Market Pakistan globally and encourage people to buy Pakistani products. Encourage people to set up manufacturing in Pakistan as an alternative to China. This will piss off China but we have to do it. US is looking for places to move manufacturing out of China to places like Vietnam and India. Pakistan needs to secure a share of US manufacturing, this is a shortcut to increase manufacturing quickly if you don't want to do it organically.
Again being worked on by the gov. Most of our local industry are dead. And slowly we are reviving them. One thing the gov has done is protect the commercial heritage of goods produced in the country. Without this law international brands continue selling Pakistan-origin goods, depriving the country to get premium on its GIs in international market. But no more, thanks to this law.
https://nation.com.pk/24-Jan-2020/s...nalise-bill-to-protect-pak-products-worldwide
5. The people who get involved in manufacturing business for foreign companies in Pakistan need to transfer this knowledge to local Pakistani businesses and that is when Pakistan's export economy will really kick off. Pakistan must take close notes about where the products they manufacture in Pakistan for foreign companies end up. Specifically pay attention to things like demographics, needs of customers, market size, market growth rate, forecasted demand, competitors, and barriers to entry. Use foreign manufacturing bases in Pakistan as a way to gain inside knowledge and information for business sectors that Pakistan will eventually enter itself and become a competitor. Use this gathered information to make and sell Pakistani exports competitive against other countries.
Gov has setup a oversea datebase, which you can also register on. Its a list of all people working oversea, and their expertise and knowledge. Looks like gov is already way ahead of you. You should register, if you are serious about returning to pakistan
https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/3...s-naya-pakistan-calling-portal-for-brain-gain
https://www.opf.org.pk/naya-pakistan-calling/
6. Start with small or medium sized enterprises (SME) and then grow bigger.
Already answered
https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk...o-farmers-smes-among-govts-top-priorities-pm/
7. Increase credit availability, especially for SME's. This is a make or break decision for SME's in developing countries like Pakistan and is critical to increase exports.
Already answered
https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk...o-farmers-smes-among-govts-top-priorities-pm/
8. Understand that the way you export to one country will not work for every country. Things like market specific marketing, demographics, demand, and logistics will change from country to country. Pakistani exports will be more popular in certain countries than others. The bigger the market, the more difficult it is to crack, because larger countries have more negotiating power and you will have to give up more to sell there. Sometimes this works in Pakistan's favor, sometimes it works against.
9. Make an effort to establish Pakistan as a global supplier for businesses. Find out what global businesses need right now and make that, then sign an exclusive deal to supply them.
To do that, we first need to be able to offer that supply. If we have no manfacturing plants setup, how can we offer that. This is what CPEC aims to do. Offering SEZ for companies to setup their plants.
https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk...-important-part-of-cpec-enrichment-extension/
http://cpec.gov.pk/special-economic-zones-projects
10. Price competitively and time your market entry perfectly.
Gov has no power to price anything. That is between the supplier and buyer
11. Simplify regulation standards and cut red tape until you match the global standards of regulation in all market sectors. If you are below global standards, then increase it to global standards. The closer Pakistan's regulation standards are to global level, the more people will buy Pakistani products, and exports will increase. If Pakistani regulations are too high, Pakistani exports will be too expensive. If Pakistani regulations are too weak, quality of Pakistani exports will be bad. You need to find the right balance here, usually this is the global standard, so copy it.
Also worked on pharmacy industry was one. One of our export barriers of fruits to USA was lack of irradiation treatment of fruits before shipping. Since we have done that, USA can now enjoy Pakistan mangoes.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/597544-pharma-exports
http://emergingpakistan.gov.pk/sectors/pharmaceuticals/
http://www.fruitnet.com/americafruit/article/2976/pakistan-to-make-us-mango-debut
12. To increase Pakistani exports, you will need to combine short term and long term economic policy.
Export issue is being tackled at all fronts. For year, it has always been neglected. For once, long term is being looked at. No more short term policy for votes.
13. When Pakistani exports that become successful, hire more people. Do not fall into the trap that as demand increases, you try to squeeze more out of the same number of employees. You will have a hard time keeping up with export demand and buyers will start to look elsewhere.
When the demand for exports come, there is plenty of manpower. Don't worry about that.
As far as imports go, a smart move would be to buy anything expensive right now during COVID-19 economic recession. For example, let's say PIA wants to buy new 787's, instead of waiting, they should buy new planes right now because it will save them money in long run. Boeing and Airbus are absolutely desperate to sell any airplanes right now because many airlines are cancelling their orders and losing order books. Many of the airplanes that Emirates flies today were bought right after 9/11 when airline demand crashed and Boeing/Airbus got desperate for customers. PIA can buy planes on cheap terms for whatever price it wants right now.
Oil is another good example. Oil is cheaper than water right now, anybody with a functional brain cell should be buying, hedging, and stocking up on as much oil as possible right now for the future because oil will get a lot more expensive when economy recovers. To Imran Khan's credit, he said that Pakistan has done this and gotten a lot of oil at a dirt cheap price, which is good news.
PIA is making a loss, and requires gov bailout to survive. How are they going finance those purchases. Plus even if we take out loans to buy those planes, airline industry is down worldwide. How will PIA generate any money to make those payment. Difference between 9/11 and covid, the latter is worldwide, while 9/11 only affected USA.
Buying oil is not the problem. Storing it is. I think currently our storage capacity is 25 days (someone correct me on this if i am wrong). Constructing more storage require money, which again is the main problem.
