Pakistan poised to become fast growing economy: WB

[KingRaj]

South Asia

: The region is projected to be a bright spot in the outlook for emerging and developing economies, with growth speeding up to 7.3 percent in 2016 from 7 percent in the year just ended. The region is a net importer of oil and will benefit from lower global energy prices. At the same time, because of relatively low global integration, the region is shielded from growth fluctuations in other economies. For FY 2016-17, India, the dominant economy in the region, is projected to grow at a faster 7.8 percent and growth in Pakistan (on a factor cost basis) is expected to accelerate to 4.5 percent.

Anemic recovery in emerging markets to weigh heavily on global growth in 2016

@Talwar e Pakistan
So according to 2016 World Bank report Pakistan is miles behind India in terms of growth.

 

[Beef Bhaijan]

Dude you ever bothered to read the full article which your mentioning before wasting my time with meaningless banter??

If you want to get down to the details then this is what he said "their is nothing wrong broadly" which means its still "not entirely" right as a day earlier he has already stated that "we should be careful in the way we count GDP" ...so where is the refutation ??

So the argument was never about the new numbers but rather about how data was fudged and Rajan has himself admitted it up there without any refutations.

Plus i have posted 2 articles referencing INDIAN economists including the economist who sets your interest rates proving the same thing ? ..What part of this do you not understand ?

So you just want to type whatever you feel like simply because it suits you ?? and your ego cant handle this because Im Pakistani ??

Grow up man !

And dont waste my time until you have some proper refutations to what I post.

You do realise who Rajan was addressing and what exactly he was talking about right?

Oh wait you just post things verbatim without actually looking at the details and trying to understand.

So here are some direct words from Rajan to clarify what he meant for people like you in simple terms:

 

[LeGenD]

I don't buy this.

Our Finance Minister (i.e. Ishaq Dar) is a well-known manipulator and faker and his disclosures are not transparent.

 

[iioal malik]

Not only Indians buring their azz out ...but it's unfortunate that some Pakistanis are also acting and buring over this news you low ballers enemy of this nation PTI musharaff fans burn slow and die slow .....

 

[farhan_9909]

As said earlier,it all depends on this year growth rate,if we somehow surpass 5% mark this year(confirmed by WB/IMF) than we can achieve 6% by 2018 but to go past 7% or in the league of countries like india/china.We need huge reforms in economic sectors and i doubt it will be possible before 2022-23 even if we start now. unless we get lot of FDI from CPEC.

But even 6% will be a decent growth rate for Pakistan

 

[Roybot]

There is no direct quote from the World Bank president, probably a PML(N) paid news.

 

[KingRaj]

There is no direct quote from the World Bank president, probably a PML(N) paid news.

They actually twisted his words

“Now is the moment for Pakistan to step up to a higher level of growth and opportunity for all its people,”

said Kim. “In my meetings with the prime minister and finance minister, we discussed going to a higher level of ambition for reforms for the economy. These could include strengthening the role of the private sector for job creation, accelerating energy reforms, making improvements at the community level for health and education, and ensuring that anti-poverty measures are effective at reaching poor people.”

Pakistan Has Chance to Boost Economy, World Bank President Says

 

[Scavenger]

..Why you getting so hyped up about stuff that the top Indian economists like Raghuram Rajan from the Reserve Bank of India, have themselves stated ?. Why would he lie to you ?

And you coming back all riled up at me simply because I'm Pakistani ??...lol

Dude learn to counter with logic not anger.

Now, You need to read that article again a couple of times for it to penetrate fully. The article clearly states "Many Economists" are of the same view that the economy isnt growing at a 7.5 % rate because the underlying drivers dont support the data revision done to get these fudged figures in order to look good when compared with China.

The purpose of statistics is not to look good on books but to measure achievement.

Here read Rajan's words, not mine:

“There are problems with the way we count GDP, which is why we need to be careful sometimes just talking about growth," Rajan on Thursday said in his address at the 13th convocation at Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research.

Here is the article.


Why Raghuram Rajan doesn’t trust India’s GDP numbers


by Dinesh Unnikrishnan Jan 29, 2016 11:40 IST

Narendra Modi government introduced new measure to count the GDP (based on Gross Value Added (GVA) method instead of the earlier one based on factor cost) and changed the base year of GDP calculation to 2011-12 from 2004-05. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan has now joined this group, raising questions about the GDP numbers.
Narendra Modi government introduced new measure to count the GDP (based on Gross Value Added (GVA) method instead of the earlier one based on factor cost) and changed the base year of GDP calculation to 2011-12 from 2004-05. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan has now joined this group, raising questions about the GDP numbers.


“There are problems with the way we count GDP, which is why we need to be careful sometimes just talking about growth," Rajan on Thursday said in his address at the 13th convocation at Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research.

The new method of GDP instantly lifted the country’s GDP growth to 7.3 percent in fiscal year 2015 compared with 5.5 per cent under the old series. For the Modi government, the higher GDP number was euphoric to support its claims that the economy has indeed turned the corner to the high-growth trajectory, becoming world's fastest growing major economy even beating China’s growth rate (though the size of Chinese economy is five times more than that of India.)

But the 'skeptics', who would hesitate to go with the Modi camp’s euphoria, kept cautioning about the protruding disconnect between the new set of GDP numbers and high frequency macro-economic indicators in the economy. These included bank credit growth, corporate performance, auto sales, factory output and growth in the manufacturing sector that should ideally correlate with the GDP figure. Even while accepting that the fresh GDP calculation methodology is in line with international practice, they questioned the actual growth rate of the economy and the picture depicted by the new set of numbers.

To explain his argument, Rajan took the example of two mothers who babysit each other's child instead of their own and exchange money as charges. "There is a rise in economic activity as each pays the other, but the net effect on the economy is questionable," said Rajan.
“We should be careful about how we count. Obviously lots of people have thought how to improve our counting of GDP and going forward that is something that we will have to think about," the governor added.

The comments, coming from a world-renowned economist and the head of country’s central bank, are indeed serious enough and should be taken note by the Modi-government. The fact is that there are serious concerns on growth on the ground. There are a few reasons that tell us why the high GDP numbers aren't mirroring the actual situation on ground.

One, a highly stressed banking sector and tepid credit growth do not reflect a fast growing, strong economy.

Total stressed assets (bad and restructured assets) in the banking sector has risen to 12 per cent of the total bank loans, while gross NPAs of the banking sector, as a percentage of total loans, could reach 5.4% by September 2016, according to the RBI's financial stability report (FSR) from 5.1% in September 2015.

Clearly, the health of the banking sector doesn’t look good so far. This is also indicated by the December quarter earnings of ICICI bank, which has reported a spike in gross NPAs to 4.72 per cent from 3.77 per cent in the preceding quarter, indicating that bad loan worries aren't over for the industry yet.

Stress in the banking sector has resulted in lower credit flow to productive sectors. Going by the latest RBI data, bank lending to industries has grown by 4.6 percent in the 12 months till October 2015 compared with 7.8 percent in the corresponding period in the previous year.

In the March-October period of the current fiscal year, credit growth to industries has languished at negative 0.3 percent compared with 0.7 percent in the previous year. The worst hit has been medium-sized companies, where bank lending has contracted by 10.9 percent as against a contraction of 1.1 per cent in the same period last year.
According to analysts, there is more pain left in the banking sector as a significant chunk of the restructured assets will turn bad in the absence of major pick up in the economic scenario.

Two, manufacturing growth has been tepid. The tepid growth in factory output, also reflected in the core sector growth (fell 1.3 percent in November) and monthly PMI data (to 49.1 from 50.3 in November) indicate that revival in manufacturing activity has remained elusive.


The growth in the manufacturing sector till November this fiscal year has averaged at 3.9 per cent compared with 2.3 per cent in the previous fiscal, which signals some improvement in the economy but not a sharp jump.

The sharp contraction in the November IIP number to a four-year low of negative 3.2 percent, (though partly due to seasonal factors) a visible drop in capital goods production and sequential contraction in most of the manufactured products sub-components have raised doubts among economists on the durability of the recent robustness in the industrial output.

Three, corporate earnings have been muted so far and hasn’t shown any significant revival yet. This is evident from the profit and revenues growth of companies reported earnings in the September quarter and those companies reported earnings so far in the December quarter stood. The over-leveraged corporates are experiencing further pressure on their cash flows on account of prolonged economic slowdown.

A recent note from rating agency Crisil forecast corporate earnings to grow by mere 2 percent in the three months ending December compared with 5 percent in the corresponding period in the previous fiscal year on account of plunging commodity prices coupled with weak investments in the economy.

Four, although there is an improvement in the car sales in recent quarters, the two-wheeler sales have tumbled. In the December quarter, the two-wheeler sales have shown a decline. This indicates tepid consumer demand.

Five, rural demand continues to be weak as evident from the earnings of companies like HUL, which were below analysts' expectations with a 22 per cent decline in net profit at Rs 971 crore in the third quarter ended December 31, 2015, as compared to Rs 1,252 crore in the corresponding three months of the previous fiscal.

Sixth, India has been facing massive contraction on the export-front. The country’s exports have shrunk for the 13 consecutive month in a row. It fell by 18% during April-December 2015 from the same period year ago.

As Firstpost has noted before, one of the major factors that benefited the Modi government in the past year was the crash in oil prices, which helped lessen the burden on import bill and the inflation. But, except this, there has not been any marked improvement in the growth triggers in the domestic market regardless of what the GDP number shows.

This is probably the reason that prompted Rajan to question the new methodology to calculate the GDP numbers. Clearly, it is time for the Modi government to pay attention to the 'skeptics' and look at the economy in a more realistic manner.

The Governor of RBI was miquoted. Here is his follow on statement.

Google for the following: "raghuram rajan says never doubtd gdp numbers" Please open the first link.

As a Pakistani, neither are you very knowledgeable, neither well versed with what re balancing is.

That said, at the end of the day rants on an online forum won't yield you much when heavy hitters like Raghuram Rajan(the Governor of RBI) along with other economists have endorsed the change.

Not only Indians buring their azz out ...but it's unfortunate that some Pakistanis are also acting and buring over this news you low ballers enemy of this nation PTI musharaff fans burn slow and die slow .....

Hard as it might be for you. No one's burning their a$$. The only thing is you are being educated on what actual economic predictions are.

What seem's so big to you that you feel other's might get jealous for, is nothing less than very ordinary for those of us whose countries have already achieved much more. As a Pakistani however you are hardwired to believe that you are getting something extra ordinary that other's covet.

 

[Who.Cares]

Pakistan was nearly growing at 8% before the terrorism. So hope for the best.

 

[MadDog]

Interesting, IMF is not so optimisitic:

What did i just see, Iraq being top performer in 2018, with 8-9% gdp growth rate, how on earth is this possible, half of the country is under ISIS, other parts are under Kurds !!!

 

[Talwar e Pakistan]

so from what I got from your post
pakistan economy is
-2% short coz of power
-2% short of shadow economy
-80 billion<that makes 30% of pakistan economy>lets spread it to 10 years n say 3% of gdp
+80 billion coming from china<again 30% of pakistani economy>lets spread it to 10 years n say 3% of gdp
+coz of stability as army is fighting militants will add lets say 2% more
also as pakistan not fudge gdp data so add more grace to gdp lets add 2% for not fudging data
also as pakistan is only atomy kuvat give pakistan 2% more

so pakistan is growing at what now lets say 4.5%
add all these numbers now
21% GDP growth that is actually what pakistan is growing :O

wow at this rate pakistan will pass usa and europe soon impressive.

Typical *** burning.

Pakistan- major reforms carried out, huge inflows of FDI, a massive turn around in the global economic enviroment, a signifcant reduction in violence etc etc. In 30 years maybe, but these things don't happen overnight.

@Nilgiri @PARIKRAMA

Thing is, that is what exactly is happening in Pakistan.

 

[The Eagle]

Rise & shine Pakistan.... Indeed the upcoming days, months and years will be fruitful for us In'Sha'ALLAH. CPEC is another game changer and will not just affect in start but will help grow Pakistan in long term though it is just a start towards better Pakistan. More to come and hopefully things will be better than before. Economic growth and GDP% will change within months as well because it always vary due to the investments which Pakistan is successfully attracting especially after achievements in war against terrorism.

Pakistan Zindabad.

 

[Beef Bhaijan]

Really ?? ...Howcome raghuram never said that he was misquoted and you here are so arduently clarifiying his statement for him ??

Can you show us some authorization where he endorsed you for such an action ?? - If not then your statement carries no weight.

Do you know more than raghuram himself about what he has to say and what not ??

Dont chew up his words merely to satisfy your ego, learn to state facts as they are. Your economy is not going to grow as a result of fudging up data which raghuram has himself admitted. It is going to grow based on ground realities.

I clearly read what he said and here let me post it for your perusal since being indian, you cannot be expected to be smart enough to read into any matter without bias and prejudice.

Along the way let me teach you the basic's of how to interpret simple conversational english :

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan today said "he has never raised doubts over the GDP numbers and they are broadly correct."

Now, what does the term "Broadly correct" mean ?? - Certainly NOT entirely correct.

Secondly, raising doubts about "Fudged" numbers is not being discussed, rather it is the basis of FUDGING that we are talking about.

You can still have Correct GDP numbers using Fudged data and I'm sure this is what raghu is referring to when he said "he has never raised doubts over the GDP numbers" - PLain and simple.

And when I need an astrologer to tell me what i feel then i will contact you, but please in the future refrain from spilling out your ingrained hatred as a result of bad media portrayal of Pakistan in India. We are not responsible for such an upbringing that you've had.

Learn to refute with facts and not some dime store drivel, which no one is interested in hearing.

The Governor of RBI was miquoted. Here is his follow on statement.

Google for the following: "raghuram rajan says never doubtd gdp numbers" Please open the first link.

As a Pakistani, neither are you very knowledgeable, neither well versed with what re balancing is.

That said, at the end of the day rants on an online forum won't yield you much when heavy hitters like Raghuram Rajan(the Governor of RBI) along with other economists have endorsed the change.


Hard as it might be for you. No one's burning their a$$. The only thing is you are being educated on what actual economic predictions are.

What seem's so big to you that you feel other's might get jealous for, is nothing less than very ordinary for those of us whose countries have already achieved much more. As a Pakistani however you are hardwired to believe that you are getting something extra ordinary that other's covet.

 

[Scavenger]

Really ?? ...Howcome raghuram never said that he was misquoted and you here are so arduently clarifiying his statement for him ??

Can you show us some authorization where he endorsed you for such an action ?? - If not then your statement carries no weight.

Do you know more than raghuram himself about what he has to say and what not ??

Dont chew up his words merely to satisfy your ego, learn to state facts as they are. Your economy is not going to grow as a result of fudging up data which raghuram has himself admitted. It is going to grow based on ground realities.

I clearly read what he said and here let me post it for your perusal since being indian, you cannot be expected to be smart enough to read into any matter without bias and prejudice.

Along the way let me teach you the basic's of how to interpret simple conversational english :

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan today said "he has never raised doubts over the GDP numbers and they are broadly correct."

Now, what does the term "Broadly correct" mean ?? - Certainly NOT entirely correct.

Secondly, raising doubts about "Fudged" numbers is not being discussed, rather it is the basis of FUDGING that we are talking about.

You can still have Correct GDP numbers using Fudged data and I'm sure this is what raghu is referring to when he said "he has never raised doubts over the GDP numbers" - PLain and simple.

And when I need an astrologer to tell me what i feel then i will contact you, but please in the future refrain from spilling out your ingrained hatred as a result of bad media portrayal of Pakistan in India. We are not responsible for such an upbringing that you've had.

Learn to refute with facts and not some dime store drivel, which no one is interested in hearing.

Can't argue with you like this if you wish to nitpick the Governor's words. He has clarified. If there was an issue, he would have gone out clearly and spelt it. The Governor of RBI is completely independent from the Government. And makes his own decisions and has chided the Government in the past.

Catch you in a decade when we keep growing and you keep finding excuses.

 

[Beef Bhaijan]

Dude you can grow to outgrow yourself and it doesnt mean anything to me. I just state the facts as they are and ALL the words being used here are Raghuram's. NOT MINE

so best of luck!

Can't argue with you like this if you wish to nitpick the Governor's words. He has clarified. If there was an issue, he would have gone out clearly and spelt it. The Governor of RBI is completely independent from the Government. And makes his own decisions and has chided the Government in the past.

Catch you in a decade when we keep growing and you keep finding excuses.