Pakistan needs to block Indian moves to becomes regional sherif

[monitor]

By Faran Mahmood

File photo shows an aerial view of Chabahar port in southeastern Iranian province of Sistan and Balochistan. PHOTO: IRNA

ISLAMABAD: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project has been mired with cost squabbles in political waters. But amid all this controversy over the CPEC route, New Delhi is rushing to seal deal after inking an MoU with Iran for extending a $150 million loan to develop its Chabahar port.

India plans to lease two docks for a decade that would give it access to Afghanistan and Central Asian energy markets – bypassing Pakistan. Moreover, in collaboration with Tehran and Moscow, India is looking to create a vast network of enhanced connectivity with the land-locked Central Asia and eventually Europe, through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

Indian calculus on Pakistan

New Delhi is following a policy of ‘twin track’ by engaging Pakistan’s neighbours but circumventing Pakistan in trade partnerships; and at the same time, maintaining good ties with its civilian leadership. India is playing a similar ‘minus 1’ card in Saarc and now is looking for new regional groupings beyond South Asia.

But will the Chabahar agreement be a ‘real’ game changer and a direct threat to CPEC? Or like Saarc, the triangle would fall prey to Indian’s hegemony?

Yes and maybe. Designated as a free trade zone on the gulf of Oman, Chabahar is a direct competitor to Gwadar. However Indian-Iranian relations have no long-standing history of amity and harmony and as recent as 2014, Iran increased import duty on Indian rice from 10% to 45% while revoking visa-on-arrival for Indian citizens.

Now the deal between Tehran and P-5+1 (US, Russia, China, UK, France and Germany) over its nuclear programme has helped break the ice between the two countries and Modi’s government is now all set to steer the course of regional dynamics.

Iran could use this as an opportunity to grab oil market share from the Saudi-led OPEC, while the Iranian gas would help India diversify its energy mix. Indian companies are also ready to invest more than $20 billion in Iranian oilfields and petrochemical plants.

The deal will also give Afghanistan an alternate port for fulfilling its maritime needs and shall decrease Islamabad’s influence on its foreign policy. Afghan imports through Karachi port have already declined by more than 40% in Feb 2016 and according to estimates, Afghan-Indian trade volume could increase by a four-fold if modalities of a trilateral agreement materialise.

Previously in 2009, India built the “Route 606” to bypass Pakistan for commercial trade at a cost of $150 million. The road connects to the Iranian city Zabol whereas construction work on a Chabahar-Milak-Zaranj-Dilaram route from Iran to Afghanistan is already in progress.

Pakistan’s strategy

There is a need to advance comprehensive trade reforms for sustaining macroeconomic growth and to stop India from becoming a regional sheriff. The post-sanctions era in Iran presents multiple opportunities for Pakistan but pursuing them requires deep understanding of Iran’s complex social, economic and geo-political issues. At present, Pakistan needs to adopt a two-pronged strategy, at a national as well as regional level, to counter Indian threats and emerging geo-political challenges.

At a national level, Pakistan needs to assuage the concerns of smaller provinces whereas political parties need to show maturity and ownership of the CPEC programme. Stakeholders need a full agenda of shared objectives to start with.

At the regional level, the mistrust between India and Pakistan has prevented Saarc to become a model of regional cooperation like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Trade under South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) is a mere 5% of South Asia’s total trade volume which is not very promising.

Pakistan needs to lobby with small states of Saarc and negotiate e-visa arrangements with states like Sri Lanka and Maldives that are popular tourist destinations. The Beijing-Islamabad axis is not a substitute to regional partnerships and Pakistan needs more cooperative relationships with its neighbours.

Pakistan also needs to sort out its differences with Afghanistan. India has not only shown keen interest in the development of Afghanistan’s natural wealth but has actually delivered on numerous infrastructure projects including the Salma dam and the Afghan parliament building. More than 10,000 Afghan students have studied in India on scholarships in the last decade. Public opinion polls confirm overwhelmingly favourable sentiments for New Delhi.

Islamabad should support Afghan government in developing its agricultural, livestock and industrial sectors.

Do you think Pakistan needs to block India’s move to develop Chabahar port?

'Yes' or 'No'.

-----

The writer is a Cambridge graduate and is working as a management consultant

Published in The Express Tribune, May 2nd, 2016








?

 

[PaklovesTurkiye]

By Faran Mahmood

File photo shows an aerial view of Chabahar port in southeastern Iranian province of Sistan and Balochistan. PHOTO: IRNA

ISLAMABAD: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project has been mired with cost squabbles in political waters. But amid all this controversy over the CPEC route, New Delhi is rushing to seal deal after inking an MoU with Iran for extending a $150 million loan to develop its Chabahar port.

India plans to lease two docks for a decade that would give it access to Afghanistan and Central Asian energy markets – bypassing Pakistan. Moreover, in collaboration with Tehran and Moscow, India is looking to create a vast network of enhanced connectivity with the land-locked Central Asia and eventually Europe, through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

Indian calculus on Pakistan

New Delhi is following a policy of ‘twin track’ by engaging Pakistan’s neighbours but circumventing Pakistan in trade partnerships; and at the same time, maintaining good ties with its civilian leadership. India is playing a similar ‘minus 1’ card in Saarc and now is looking for new regional groupings beyond South Asia.

But will the Chabahar agreement be a ‘real’ game changer and a direct threat to CPEC? Or like Saarc, the triangle would fall prey to Indian’s hegemony?

Yes and maybe. Designated as a free trade zone on the gulf of Oman, Chabahar is a direct competitor to Gwadar. However Indian-Iranian relations have no long-standing history of amity and harmony and as recent as 2014, Iran increased import duty on Indian rice from 10% to 45% while revoking visa-on-arrival for Indian citizens.

Now the deal between Tehran and P-5+1 (US, Russia, China, UK, France and Germany) over its nuclear programme has helped break the ice between the two countries and Modi’s government is now all set to steer the course of regional dynamics.

Iran could use this as an opportunity to grab oil market share from the Saudi-led OPEC, while the Iranian gas would help India diversify its energy mix. Indian companies are also ready to invest more than $20 billion in Iranian oilfields and petrochemical plants.

The deal will also give Afghanistan an alternate port for fulfilling its maritime needs and shall decrease Islamabad’s influence on its foreign policy. Afghan imports through Karachi port have already declined by more than 40% in Feb 2016 and according to estimates, Afghan-Indian trade volume could increase by a four-fold if modalities of a trilateral agreement materialise.

Previously in 2009, India built the “Route 606” to bypass Pakistan for commercial trade at a cost of $150 million. The road connects to the Iranian city Zabol whereas construction work on a Chabahar-Milak-Zaranj-Dilaram route from Iran to Afghanistan is already in progress.

Pakistan’s strategy

There is a need to advance comprehensive trade reforms for sustaining macroeconomic growth and to stop India from becoming a regional sheriff. The post-sanctions era in Iran presents multiple opportunities for Pakistan but pursuing them requires deep understanding of Iran’s complex social, economic and geo-political issues. At present, Pakistan needs to adopt a two-pronged strategy, at a national as well as regional level, to counter Indian threats and emerging geo-political challenges.

At a national level, Pakistan needs to assuage the concerns of smaller provinces whereas political parties need to show maturity and ownership of the CPEC programme. Stakeholders need a full agenda of shared objectives to start with.

At the regional level, the mistrust between India and Pakistan has prevented Saarc to become a model of regional cooperation like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Trade under South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) is a mere 5% of South Asia’s total trade volume which is not very promising.

Pakistan needs to lobby with small states of Saarc and negotiate e-visa arrangements with states like Sri Lanka and Maldives that are popular tourist destinations. The Beijing-Islamabad axis is not a substitute to regional partnerships and Pakistan needs more cooperative relationships with its neighbours.

Pakistan also needs to sort out its differences with Afghanistan. India has not only shown keen interest in the development of Afghanistan’s natural wealth but has actually delivered on numerous infrastructure projects including the Salma dam and the Afghan parliament building. More than 10,000 Afghan students have studied in India on scholarships in the last decade. Public opinion polls confirm overwhelmingly favourable sentiments for New Delhi.

Islamabad should support Afghan government in developing its agricultural, livestock and industrial sectors.

Do you think Pakistan needs to block India’s move to develop Chabahar port?

'Yes' or 'No'.

-----

The writer is a Cambridge graduate and is working as a management consultant

Published in The Express Tribune, May 2nd, 2016








?

India has openly criticized CPEC, if India does any adventure regarding CPEC, Chabahar port will also be of no use to India.

 

[Talwar e Pakistan]

Chahbar is in no way a threat to Gwadar; you cant even compare those two. Gwadar has a slightly more strategic position and a direct route to China filled with countless facilities and massive markets.

 

[Dr Gupta]

India has openly criticized CPEC, if India does any adventure regarding CPEC, Chabahar port will also be of no use to India.

Wrong we disputed it going against land which is disputed

Do you think Pakistan needs to block India’s move to develop Chabahar port?

How will it do that? naval blockade? economic sanctions? pressure Iran? Pakistan can't block it as it is not involved.

This is being backed by Iran, Afghanistan and Russia. How does Pakistan get involved?

http://thediplomat.com/2016/04/india-iran-afghanistan-finalize-chabahar-port-agreement/


This will give us direct access to central asia and trade direct with Afghanistan it is a vital project for India

 

[AyanRay]

Chahbar is in no way a threat to Gwadar; you cant even compare those two. Gwadar has a slightly more strategic position and a direct route to China filled with countless facilities and massive markets.

I agree, India is investing in Chabahar port only to gain access to Afghanistan and CAR. Gwadar will be used by China as an alternative route for its imports. Apart of them, all the other reports of either of the ports becoming centre of global trade are all overhyped

India has openly criticized CPEC, if India does any adventure regarding CPEC, Chabahar port will also be of no use to India.

And how exactly do you plan to do that?

 

[BattleWolf]

Pakistani media overestimating Pakistan , what's new ?


even a toddler can figure out that India is the & always be the most dominant economy in south Asia , even if you add all the south Asian economies together its still less than half of the indian GDP .

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Pakistani media overestimating Pakistan , what's new ?


even a toddler can figure out that India is the & always be the most dominant economy in south Asia , even if you add all the south Asian economies together its still less than half of the indian GDP .

That's because india's population is about 8 times that of pakistan. Even if you combine the entire population of South Asia sans india, india's population will still be many times bigger. Hence bigger economy.

 

[BattleWolf]

That's because india's population is about 8 times that of pakistan. Even if you combine the entire population of South Asia sans india, india's population will still be many times bigger. Hence bigger economy.

dude you are the 6th most populous country in the world , yet you guys throw population meme around . Even with so many people you guys make less than African countries .

there are literally cities in India that make more than the Pakistani GDP.


Pakistani GDP in 2015 was 270 billion
Mumbai GDP in 2014 was 278 billion

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Mumbai


Also nothing of what you claim debunks my facts , India is & always will be the biggest economy in the subcontinent .

 

[PaklovesTurkiye]

Wrong we disputed it going against land which is disputed

The land which is disputed here is IOK (Indian occupied Kashmir)......Even if you want Pakistan to stop this passing through Kashmir, you have to destroy all dams and other infrastructure you have built in IOK, a disputed territory

 

[risingsinga]

Iran and Pakistan should develop together as good neighbours. I guess their infatuation with Indian nari was because of the sanctions and embargoes imposed on them. Pakistan also needs to warm up its relations with Iran by signing multiple deals in trade, especially CPEC and gas-pipe lines and not succumbing to the pressures. People to people contact between the two neighbouring countries can improve ties.

 

[Curious_Guy]

What if ..let India build all roads and infrastructure that connects Iran to Central Asia and then connect Cepec with them .

Its just an idea ..

 

[Dr Gupta]

The land which is disputed here is IOK (Indian occupied Kashmir)......Even if you want Pakistan to stop this passing through Kashmir, you have to destroy all dams and other infrastructure you have built in IOK, a disputed territory

No J&K is disputed region as per the UN

In November 2010 the United Nations has removed Jammu and Kashmir from its list of disputed territories

Actually the UN has now removed it on their list.

In a major setback to Pakistan’s efforts to internationalise the Kashmir issue, the United Nations has excluded Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) from its list of unresolved international disputes under the observation of the UN Security Council (UNSC). Pakistan's acting envoy in the UN, Amjad Hussain Sial, has lodged a strong protest, while Indian authorities welcomed the decision.

What if ..let India build all roads and infrastructure that connects Iran to Central Asia and then connect Cepec with them .

Its just an idea ..

It is food for thought but Pakistan is yet to grant India MFN status even after promising to do so.. I can't see it happening in the short term.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

dude you are the 6th most populous country in the world , yet you guys throw population meme around . Even with so many people you guys make less than African countries .

there are literally cities in India that make more than the Pakistani GDP.


Pakistani GDP in 2015 was 270 billion
Mumbai GDP in 2014 was 278 billion

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Mumbai


Also nothing of what you claim debunks my facts , India is & always will be the biggest economy in the subcontinent .

india is around 8 times bigger than Pakistan so your economy will always be bigger than ours. Considering the fact that mumbai is one of your financial hubs and major cities, I'm surprised that it's economy is not massively bigger than all of Pakistan's.

Pakistan has been in a war like situation since the start of WOT in 2001 so our economy has been going downhill for the last 15 years till now.....

CPEC and the decline of the WOT will see Pakistan's economy improve hugely in the coming years and decades.

India's population size is similar to China's yet india will probably always be econonically behind China.

All remains to be seen......

 

[AbRaj]

Lol at those Idiots who thinks that Iran and other Countries are going to Ignore India for Pakistan, do these 20+ adults even use their brain ? or they are blinded by Nationalism ? god knows...

Forget Iran, you own Country Pakistan will become what Canada is to us. a Brotherly Country/Ally, (like Jinnah wanted)
why ? because we have same food, Same Language, Same culture. and largely Part of /same Indo-Aryan Race.

India,China are super Giants who are going to Dominate the world after 2050s. do u people really think that your country (1/7 by population and 1/5 in Landmass) is going to swap away a Super Giant like India from our own Backyard ?
you will never (repeat) NEVER able to Rule/Dominate Southern Asia(ME/SA/SEA) As long as India is here.
dont forget that we(including Eastern Parts of Pakistan) always dominated these Region and South East Asia.

we already won Cultural war, next is Economic war. with our culture we are also exporting Secularism and Dharmic and Sanskrit Influence in Pakistan.

with shitty economy of 2.3 Trillion dollars and PC Income of 3000$, we already took away Iran and Afghanistan form your Book of Allies. Imagine India with 50 Trillion Dollar Economy and PC Income of 25000$...

What about Russia-Ukraine?
Same culture, same food bla bla bla
Or South Korea and North Korea?
Or Croatia - Serbia?

 

[fitpOsitive]

Lol at those Idiots who thinks that Iran and other Countries are going to Ignore India for Pakistan, do these 20+ adults even use their brain ? or they are blinded by Nationalism ? god knows...

Forget Iran, you own Country Pakistan will become what Canada is to us. a Brotherly Country/Ally, (like Jinnah wanted)
why ? because we have same food, Same Language, Same culture. and largely Part of /same Indo-Aryan Race.

India,China are super Giants who are going to Dominate the world after 2050s. do u people really think that your country (1/7 by population and 1/5 in Landmass) is going to swap away a Super Giant like India from our own Backyard ?
you will never (repeat) NEVER able to Rule/Dominate Southern Asia(ME/SA/SEA) As long as India is here.
dont forget that we(including Eastern Parts of Pakistan) always dominated these Region and South East Asia.

we already won Cultural war, next is Economic war. with our culture we are also exporting Secularism and Dharmic and Sanskrit Influence in Pakistan.

with shitty economy of 2.3 Trillion dollars and PC Income of 3000$, we already took away Iran and Afghanistan form your Book of Allies. Imagine India with 50 Trillion Dollar Economy and PC Income of 25000$...

wow....phir hamara kia hoga?