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Pakistan may abandon IPI project


ISLAMABAD (January 16 2009): Iran has scaled down its earlier demand to link the price of gas from 85 percent to 78 percent of crude oil price under the still to be approved Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline deal. The steering committee on IPI gas pipeline project, which is a sub-committee of the Economic Co-ordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet, was informed that it had decided to recommend to the Cabinet to show greater flexibility on the gas price on offer by Iran.

The steering committee on IPI held its eighth meeting, chaired by Advisor to the Prime Minister on Petroleum and Natural Resources Dr Asim Hussain here to review the current status of the project. The steering committee reviewed the current status on IPI gas pipeline project, and decided to further negotiate with Iran the clauses related to gas price.

The committee, however, took positive note of the deliberations held so far between Pakistan and Iran on the project. The steering committees recommendations will be placed before the Cabinet for approval. Advisor to the Prime Minister on Finance Shaukat Tarin, Chief Minister of Balochistan Aslam Raisani, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Finance, Economic affairs and statistics Hina Rabbani Khar, Petroleum Secretary Mehmood Saleem Mehmood, Managing Director of ISGS Hassan Nawab Khan and other officials attended the meeting.

Sources revealed to the Business Recorder on Thursday that Tehran had shown more flexibility on the gas price as the meeting was informed that Iran had now placed a request to link the gas price to 78 percent of crude oil price. Earlier during the bilateral talks on IPI held in Tehran on December 29-30, 2008, Iran sought linking the gas price to 85 percent of crude oil price.

Pakistan had offered to link gas price to 60 percent of crude oil price. Sources said that the steering committee decided to present the fresh demand of Iran to link the gas price to 78 percent of crude oil price before the Cabinet for guidelines to resume the talks on IPI. The meeting observed that the country would generate 5000 MW electricity from one billion cubic feet gas per day (bcfd) imported from Iran.

It was noted that thermal power plants required gas to generate power. The current power shortfall is 3000 MW that would rise to 10,000 MW per day by 2020. Sources said that the committee noticed that the country was also facing 700 million cubic feet per day shortfall that would shoot up to two billion cubic feet per day by 2010. It also reviewed the electricity, generated from solar and wind project, was costlier than electricity generated from thermal plants to be operated on imported gas from Iran.

Addressing the meeting, Advisor to Prime Minister on Finance Shaukat Tarin said that economy of the country would have the capacity to consume more gas in the near future.

He said that the industrial units were facing gas shortfall that was causing reduction in the production. He said that industry required energy and gas on an emergent basis, which must be imported from Iran to bridge the gap between the demand and energy deficit.

Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Finance, Economic Affairs and Statistics Hina Rabbani Khar said that it was time to make a final decision on the IPI gas pipeline project, and added that there should be no more delay on the deal with Iran.

The IPI project will have a 2,775-kilometre-long pipeline to carry Iran's natural gas to Pakistan and India. The project, estimated to be completed in three to five years time, is expected to benefit energy-starved Pakistan. The pipeline would be supplied from South Pars field. The construction operation was to start in 2009 and the pipeline was expected to be completed in 2013, the committee was told.
 
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78% of crude oil is not at all suitable for Pakistan. With transportation, compression and depreciation of pipeline, the cost will be equal to or more than 100% of crude oil prices.
 
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Pakistan is offering 60% while Iran is demanding 78%. The final price shall be inbetween these two prices.
 
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It's better to scrap the project than enter into a bad uncertain deal. The Ukrainian case is in front of us.

We can probably consider increasing our oil tanker fleet for the transport purposes.
 
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Whatever we agree on, we shouldn't allow for a review. A review on the percentage we'll pay as compared to the Crude Oil.

The total cost of ownership should remain low enough to make the project viable.
 
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Iran urged to end gas price deadlock

By Sher Baz Khan

ISLAMABAD, Jan 26: The Senate Standing Committee on Petroleum urged Iran on Monday to end the deadlock over the pricing formula for the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project.

“We fear that the IPI project will be dropped if we don’t reach an early agreement over the gas price with Iran,” chairman of the committee Senator Talha Mahmood told reporters after presiding over a meeting of a sub-committee of the Senate panel.

Adviser to Prime Minister on Petroleum Dr Asim Hussain told the meeting that a Pakistani delegation would visit Tehran next month to try to sort out differences with Iran. He said India had lost interest in the project because it considered that the price proposed by Iran was too high. “But Pakistan will hold further talks with Iran and seek some discount,” he added.

The meeting was informed that Iran had indicated that it might reduce the price by 10 per cent, to 70 per cent of the crude price in the Middle East market.

Pakistan wants the price to stay around 60 per cent in parity with the crude.

The controversy over the gas purchase agreement emerged recently after Iran changed its position of fixing the price at of 44 per cent of the average crude price and raised it to 78 per cent. Iran has made a number of changes in the purchase agreement, including the first revision of gas price after one year, instead of two years that it had earlier proposed.

Iran had suggested that the subsequent revision of price would be made on an annual basis after the first revision, but it is now saying that after the first revision, subsequent revision will be made after three years.

Pakistan’s share from the IPI project -- about 1.05 billion cubic feet daily -- will be very expensive for domestic or commercial consumers.

Dr Hussain said that Pakistan’s share would rather be used for generation of 5,000 megawatts of electricity to enable the country to bridge the gap between demand and supply.

The meeting was informed that about 48 per cent of thermal power generation was based on furnace oil of which 62 per cent was imported. This import cost the country over $2 billion during the last financial year (2007-08). Compared to imported furnace oil, imported gas is a better and cheaper option.

According to petroleum ministry officials, imported natural gas, even at Iran’s latest price offer, remained the most feasible option, compared with other imported fuels such as furnace oil, liquefied natural gas and coal.

http://www.dawn.com/2009/01/27/top7.htm
 
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Iran has a history of not honoring even agreed and sealed contracts.

I think one needs to be wary and make sure of ironclad contracts with severe penalties for violations to make sure they honor what s being agreed to.
 
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sir i dont think this pipeline is any longer possible because india has already planned to fill gas and oil tankers from the iranian port of chabahar bypassin pakistan.
next 5 years should get the system operational.

thnx
 
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sir i dont think this pipeline is any longer possible because india has already planned to fill gas and oil tankers from the iranian port of chabahar bypassin pakistan.
next 5 years should get the system operational.

thnx

I don't think you understand - Pakistan is going to be facing a gas shortfall in the future, our own demand is going to be enough to make the project viable.

India joining the pipeline is preferable, in terms of even more gas sales for Iran, and transit fees for Pakistan, but from a pure demand perspective Pakistan can absorb a large part of the supply.

The hiccup now is whether or not Iran can offer a reasonable pricing formula.
 
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sir i dont think this pipeline is any longer possible because india has already planned to fill gas and oil tankers from the iranian port of chabahar bypassin pakistan.
next 5 years should get the system operational.

thnx
No contract of Iran and India on LNG. Even if India goes for LNG, it will instead ruin its economy coz LNG is bloody expensive.

Qatar Pakistan line is not feasible so i think that project is scrapped.

Turkmanistan Afganistan Pakistan Line is also not possible coz in between Tstan and Pstan we have the Astan ;) Who is gonna invest in Astan. Plus I think its only we Pakistani who basically repair gas line with 24 hours. I can bet no one in the world can do that, given the situation that you are welding a line and missiles are flying over you.
 
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I dont think India has full ownership of Bay of Bengal.

The potential of natural gas exploitation also makes the Bay of Bengal important for India, Bangladesh and Myanmar.[30] Disputes over rights of some oil and gas blocks have caused brief diplomatic spats between India and Bangladesh.[31]
Bay of Bengal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Largest gas blocks found in bay of bengal are around kakinada port in A.P
even 400 km from there it is still under India;s control
 
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Largest gas blocks found in bay of bengal are around kakinada port in A.P
even 400 km from there it is still under India;s control

Indian economy is very large, the gas finds in Indian as yet are not enough for India
 
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I don't think you understand - Pakistan is going to be facing a gas shortfall in the future, our own demand is going to be enough to make the project viable.

India joining the pipeline is preferable, in terms of even more gas sales for Iran, and transit fees for Pakistan, but from a pure demand perspective Pakistan can absorb a large part of the supply.

The hiccup now is whether or not Iran can offer a reasonable pricing formula.

Hi Agnostic, In my view If India join then There is more profitable for Pakistan, because It is not only benefited by transfer fees but we have consider other indirect benefit such..
1.. India must have to paid some addition money for which both country common pipeline ie. Iran to Pakistan pipeline because Indian pipeline extended to it
such cost include..
laying of pipeline
Maintance of Pipeline....
Most IMP India and Pakistan can cote there price very low due to Huge Market and Iran could not deny due to higher profit
Now without India in a deal Iran dominate there prices on Pakistan for maximum profit from limited Market. Iran state prices little bit low compare to market prices. So that reason you see that Iran and Pakistan are both crucial point of decision i.e. per unit cost...

Without India is only reason for Pakistan which occur huge indirect Cost of accusation in IPI deal
 
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Hi Agnostic, In my view If India join then There is more profitable for Pakistan, because It is not only benefited by transfer fees but we have consider other indirect benefit such..
1.. India must have to paid some addition money for which both country common pipeline ie. Iran to Pakistan pipeline because Indian pipeline extended to it
such cost include..
laying of pipeline
Maintance of Pipeline....
Most IMP India and Pakistan can cote there price very low due to Huge Market and Iran could not deny due to higher profit
Now without India in a deal Iran dominate there prices on Pakistan for maximum profit from limited Market. Iran state prices little bit low compare to market prices. So that reason you see that Iran and Pakistan are both crucial point of decision i.e. per unit cost...

Without India is only reason for Pakistan which occur huge indirect Cost of accusation in IPI deal

No the only benefit Pakistan will get from IPI from India is the transfer fee and nothing else. Other benefit which is that incase India is involved bigger dia pipes will be laid which will be expensive in start but will be beneficial in future. But the fact is that Pakistan and Iran can do that project alone, we already have infrastructure in place and so does Iran. Its India which needs to connect.
 
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