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Pakistan may abandon IPI project

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Pakistan may abandon IPI project


Thursday, January 15, 2009

By Khalid Mustafa

ISLAMABAD: Authorities concerned may recommend to parliament to abandon the proposed $7.6 billion IPI gas line project here in the meeting of the steering committee that meets today (Thursday) with Adviser to the Prime Minister on Petroleum Dr Asim Hussain in the chair.

The irrational demand by Iran, seeking exorbitant price of $10-11 per mmbtu gas from Pakistan under the proposed project, has left the authorities concerned, who have been part of the dialogue on this mega gas line for the last 14 years, in the lurch as this project remains no more economically viable for Pakistan.


In Wednesday’s meeting of the steering committee, all the top brains of the government would discuss the pros and cons of the irrational demand of Tehran with regard to the gas prices and other related issues.

After formulating the recommendations about the future strategy with regard to the much trumpeted gas line, the said committee would sensitise parliament on the issue and leave it to the House to take a decision, either to prolong the dialogue on the demand of Terhan or quit the project.

The official said that Pakistan and Iran had earlier agreed on $6.66 per mmbtu price in December 2007 for the gas to be imported through the mega gas line. The official said that Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources earlier briefed Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillai some three months back and advocated for abandoning the project keeping in view the irrational demands of Tehran. In that particular meeting, the ministryís top man recommended to the government for aggressive exploration and production of oil and gas in the country.

He said the new exploration and production†petroleum policy 2009 with alluring incentives would definitely accelerate the investment in the oil and gas sector. Pakistan is rich in oil and gas, particularly Balochistan. If the government manages to enforce its writ by giving the ownership feeling to the local people, then aggressive oil and gas exploration can be carried out. This is the only way left for Pakistan to cater to the energy needs of the country.†

To a question, the official said that a complete failure in the ongoing talks in Tehran was realised when Dr Asim recently visited Iran. The deadlock in the talks is a setback for the energy starved Pakistan, as both the countries had initiated the negotiations some time in 1992-93, and there still seems no light even at the end of the tunnel with regard to initiating the work on the ground.

The official, who was a part of the delegation during the talks, said that both sides remained stuck to their stances and failed to iron out the rifts over the price mechanism. Iran actually backed out of the Gas Sales Purchase Agreement some months back, shocking Pakistan, and came up with new proposals for selling gas under the IPI project. Since then, no progress has taken place on the IPI issue.

Other than the massive hike in gas prices under the proposed project, Iran wants that in case gas supply to India is wilfully disrupted by Pakistan, then Iran will reduce supply of gas to Pakistan in the same proportion.

Tehran also wants Islamabad to allow one price review before the IPI project gets operational. Under the proposal, Iran will be authorised to re-open the price formula even before the commencement date of the project. This would trigger complete uncertainty in the prices of piped gas to be imported.

Iran wants to move the price formula closer to spot market prices, rather than long-term contract prices that is imperative to establish the viability of the project. However, Pakistan is of the view that uncertainty in gas price will make the IPI project economically unviable. Pakistanís stance is that the price of imported gas must be competitive to alternate fuels in the Pakistani market.
 
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Without India on board it is economically not feasible to carry out this IPI pipeline. Anyways it was not going to work and so good riddance at least from Indian point of view.
 
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I also thought that the chinese where going to be involved, since India step out. It looks like that did not go to well also.
 
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I also thought that the chinese where going to be involved, since India step out. It looks like that did not go to well also.

Pakistan was willing to buy with or without China/India - that is not an issue. Pakistan has enough domestic demand to make the project feasible.

As the article indicates, it is the price being demanded by the Iranians, as well as the option to change prices at regular intervals, that is the major hiccup at this point.

Not surprising I suppose since the Russians are doing the same to their buyers. But given the Russian experience, allowing the Iranians to frequently 'reassess' prices would be pretty foolish. We would likely be paying through the nose in a couple of years.
 
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Of course, with oil prices plummeting, the Iranians might be more flexible on the price issue now..
 
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Pakistan was willing to buy with or without China/India - that is not an issue. Pakistan has enough domestic demand to make the project feasible.

As the article indicates, it is the price being demanded by the Iranians, as well as the option to change prices at regular intervals, that is the major hiccup at this point.

Not surprising I suppose since the Russians are doing the same to their buyers. But given the Russian experience, allowing the Iranians to frequently 'reassess' prices would be pretty foolish. We would likely be paying through the nose in a couple of years.

Price has been one reason why India was dragging her feet on this project. Depending on any single sorce after investing so much money can be very risky. Energy business is always mixed with politics.

RK
 
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Without India on board

India has over a billion people and their population is only growing so they're going to need gas one day from these resource-rich countries.

The only way India can get access for natural gas from Iran is through Pakistan and the only way India can get access for natural gas from Central Asia is through Pakistan. The Indians have a very hard time trusting Pakistan so I guess they wont be getting gas from these resource-rich regions anytime soon.
 
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India has over a billion people and their population is only growing so they're going to need gas one day from these resource-rich countries.

The only way India can get access for natural gas from Iran is through Pakistan and the only way India can get access for natural gas from Central Asia is through Pakistan. The Indians have a very hard time trusting Pakistan so I guess they wont be getting gas from these resource-rich regions anytime soon.

We know this and this is why we did not get involved very seriously in any of these projects. India has discoveed gas in very large quantity in Bay of Bengal and the commercial proction should start any time. We have many alternatives. Gas line through Pakistan will be the last option for sure. Most Indian imports of gas are in the form of LNG via tankers. India is one of the largest supplier of processed petrolum products. World's largest oil refinary is in India. We supply refined oil even to Iran by the way. Iran has problems in refining as they are not able to import refining equipments because of trade sanctions.

RK
 
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Pakistan was willing to buy with or without China/India - that is not an issue. Pakistan has enough domestic demand to make the project feasible.

As the article indicates, it is the price being demanded by the Iranians, as well as the option to change prices at regular intervals, that is the major hiccup at this point.

Not surprising I suppose since the Russians are doing the same to their buyers. But given the Russian experience, allowing the Iranians to frequently 'reassess' prices would be pretty foolish. We would likely be paying through the nose in a couple of years.

That is the reason that Pakistan was courting either India or China because larger the demand would offset the price. It did make a perfect sence after India was showing sign of uncertantity that Pakistan approach China.
 
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Without India on board it is economically not feasible to carry out this IPI pipeline. Anyways it was not going to work and so good riddance at least from Indian point of view.

No that is not true, Pakistan has an advance level gas network system placed. Our demand is high therefore, we can even adjust all the IPI gas in Pakistan.
But the fact is that Iranians are not reliable business partners. They have been changing demands since 1996. Its not Pakistan's capacity or India's fault this project is not going through, in fact its all because of the Iranian attitude. Furthermore, US also do not want India or Pakistan to buy that gas, they want that gas for themselves as US is energy starved.
 
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We know this and this is why we did not get involved very seriously in any of these projects. India has discoveed gas in very large quantity in Bay of Bengal and the commercial proction should start any time. We have many alternatives. Gas line through Pakistan will be the last option for sure. Most Indian imports of gas are in the form of LNG via tankers. India is one of the largest supplier of processed petrolum products. World's largest oil refinary is in India. We supply refined oil even to Iran by the way. Iran has problems in refining as they are not able to import refining equipments because of trade sanctions.

RK

I dont think India has full ownership of Bay of Bengal.

The potential of natural gas exploitation also makes the Bay of Bengal important for India, Bangladesh and Myanmar.[30] Disputes over rights of some oil and gas blocks have caused brief diplomatic spats between India and Bangladesh.[31]
Bay of Bengal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
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Body recommends going ahead with IPI project

* Decides to recommend price between 60-85 percent of crude oil as gas tariff to cabinet for negotiations with Iran

By Ijaz Kakakhel

ISLAMABAD: In its eighth meeting on Thursday, the Steering Committee on Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project ruled out shelving the project and decided to continue negotiations to reach an agreement on gas price between Tehran and Islamabad.

Tehran wanted the gas price to be 85 percent of the price of crude oil whereas Pakistan had offered to pay 60 percent of crude oil price as gas tariff. Both Pakistan and Iran have to show some flexibility as the project is in the best interests of both the countries.

Recommendation: The committee decided that a price between 60-85 percent of crude oil would be recommended as gas tariff to the cabinet for further negotiations with Tehran. Minister for Finance and Economic Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar told Daily Times that the government would go ahead with the proposed $7.6 billion project as it would help the government overcome gas and electricity shortage.

Adviser on Petroleum and Natural Resources Asim Hussain chaired the meeting of the steering committee, which is a subcommittee of the Economic Coordination Committee. The committee reviewed the current status of the project and decided to further negotiate with Iran the clauses related to the gas price formula. It, however, took a positive note of the bilateral deliberations held so on the project. The steering committee's recommendations would be later placed before the cabinet for approval. Adviser on Finance Shaukat Tareen, Balochistan Chief Minister Aslam Raisani, Petroleum Secretary Mehmood Saleem Mehmood and Inter State Gas Systems Managing Director Hassan Nawab Khan were also present.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan
 
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India has over a billion people and their population is only growing so they're going to need gas one day from these resource-rich countries.

The only way India can get access for natural gas from Iran is through Pakistan and the only way India can get access for natural gas from Central Asia is through Pakistan. The Indians have a very hard time trusting Pakistan so I guess they wont be getting gas from these resource-rich regions anytime soon.
The contingent which is being followed up is to build a vast fleet of LNG/CNG tankers and route most pipelines through Iran. As of right now this cannot happen because of the tense standoff between the Bush administration and Tehran. But Obama intends to approach Iran and it is rather unlikely that Ahmedinejad will be re-elected which should certainly thaw relations enough to enable India to resume business with Iran.

Iran is certainly a lot more stable than Pakistan and given the recent events it is highly unlikely that the GoI will make large investments into Pakistan for critical energy projects. A direct pipeline coming into India would certainly be a lot better, but it just doesn't seem possible for now. The only silver lining here is that a lot of jobs will be created in the Indian ship building industry.
 
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