Pakistan lost $50 million from airspace restrictions: minister

[Indus Pakistan]

If we look at market cap of the respective stockmarkets, Pakistan suffered massively (among other things happening at same time) from FPI/capital flows drying up due to investors being wary compared to India where things were pretty stable. This potentially cost Pakistan billions of dollars (exact number we will have to wait for the year to finish for analysis), billions it will now have to extract via extra domestic taxes given the forex scarcity for debt repayment.

I will be honest I am not going to spend my energy looking at the differant figures touted. But few points to note -

• What flights were effected by Indian air ban? To South East Asia and marginally Australia. These regions form a tiny % of Pak air traffuc.
• 
  
• What flights were effected by Pak air ban? The West, Europe, America, Middle East. These form bulk of indian air traffic.

Rest of the economy in Pakistan was effected by reasons exogenous to air flights so that can't be factored into this discussion. if India had been on the western marches of the continent, yes Pak aviation would have been crippled because most of our flights are also to Middle East, Europe and North America.

 

[GHALIB]

I will be honest I am not going to spend my energy looking at the differant figures touted. But few points to note -

• What flights were effected by Indian air ban? To South East Asia and marginally Australia. These regions form a tiny % of Pak air traffuc.
• 
  
• What flights were effected by Pak air ban? The West, Europe, America, Middle East. These form bulk of indian air traffic.

Rest of the economy in Pakistan was effected by reasons exogenous to air flights so that can't be factored into this discussion. if India had been on the western marches of the continent, yes Pak aviation would have been crippled because most of our flights are also to Middle East, Europe and North America.

pakistan gets navigation charges from flights going over airspace , that is substantial sum.

 

[Goku]

Demand was for IAF to withdraw from forwards bases
They initially refused and than accepted and pleaded to open airspace
Always happens the same way..india first closes the airspace than pleads to open it

Lol give me one source that tells India accepted this ridiculous demand ,who are u to dictate that we move our aircrafts from FOBs , airspace was closed for 2 years from 2002 to 2004 between the countries , so its not a much problem

 

[Indus Pakistan]

By way of example. Flights from UK to Pakistan were not effected at by Indian ban. Ditto from Europe. Ditto America. Ditto Middle East.

On other hand most flights from Europe, Middle East to India were effected. New Delhi in particular was hurt badly.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

pakistan gets navigation charges from flights going over airspace , that is substantial sum.

I am well aware of that but for every dollar lost it hurt India far more. Indeed PAF did far less damage [dollar for dollar in terms of cost] then this ban.

 

[GHALIB]

I am well aware of that but for every dollar lost it hurt India far more. Indeed PAF did far less damage [dollar for dollar in terms of cost] then this ban.

depends on how badly you need dollars presently for your economy .

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Here are the facts. Every one of these lucrative routes were effected from and to India. Anybody want to do the same for Pakistan go ahead please.

 

[Nilgiri]

I will be honest I am not going to spend my energy looking at the differant figures touted. But few points to note -

• What flights were effected by Indian air ban? To South East Asia and marginally Australia. These regions form a tiny % of Pak air traffuc.
• 
  
• What flights were effected by Pak air ban? The West, Europe, America, Middle East. These form bulk of indian air traffic.

Rest of the economy in Pakistan was effected by reasons exogenous to air flights so that can't be factored into this discussion. if India had been on the western marches of the continent, yes Pak aviation would have been crippled because most of our flights are also to Middle East, Europe and North America.

Well the cost to Indian airlines was 100 million roughly (it was 80 million in early july, so lets round up a bit by now). If Pakistan govt is quoting 50 million as cost on their end....it is what it is...those are the numbers.

Remember Pakistan had to effectively cancel many affected flights altogether on its end....whereas India rerouted all of its affected flights to bypass corridors (so burn more fuel + take more time, but the route is not out of action). Cancelling vs rerouting have different costs, the former is lot more expensive to an airline....as you have to repurpose the aicraft in question to other routes and fly them at low capacity (given demand profile of market generally would be status quo stable in composition w.r.t competitors) or even ground them.

Also when you look at the rerouting length/total journey length (of affected flights from say Delhi...which was really the only hub that was affected for international flights), for Europe it comes to maybe 15% - 20% ratio? North America even less... less than 10% I would say.

Suffice to say the real costs are not even in the aviation sector....investor sentiment jitteriness extends to larger parts of Pakistan economy. But delineating what was prompted by this whole balakot stuff, compared to what was part of the ongoing structural stuff that would have happened anyway, needs more data analysis and time. I'm sure someone in Pakistani media will analyse it more with time when relevant.

 

[Kaniska]

To Global Aviation Industry

Try again for India: https://www.livemint.com/news/india...8-crore-to-indian-airlines-1562254701059.html

@MilSpec

Even I was still wondering why Pakistan removed the ban!!

 

[Indus Pakistan]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...aking-shorter-routes/articleshow/70258654.cms

Fares to US, Europe drop by 15-20% as Pakistan opens airspac ..

Remember Pakistan had to effectively cancel many affected flights altogether on its end

• Where to?
  
• And what was the volume % of the overall Pak air traffic?

Malaysia/Australia form a tiny % of Pak air volume. Europe, MENA, America are the big chunk.

 

[GHALIB]

Even I was still wondering why Pakistan removed the ban!!

yes that is the big question .

 

[Serious Carrey]

Even I was still wondering why Pakistan removed the ban!!

Yes, that is the question. Why did Pakistan open the airspace?

 

[Indus Pakistan]

@Nilgiri The 100/50 million dollar equation is nonsense. And I don't have to pore over the maths for that. Are we supposed to believe that Indian air traffic volume is only twice bigger then Pakistan? Are we supposed to believe that Bangkok, Kaula Lumpur and Sydney are traffic hubs for Pakistan outbound flights?

Or that Europe, Middle East, America are not Indian hubs for outbound flights? Te figure quoted do not even hold water at the minimal testing.

Yes, that is the question. Why did Pakistan open the airspace?

Excuses were running thin. Don't forget lot of flights are by western airlines. PMIK is off to USA. And it had been notified month ago that flights would be re-opened in July as the original date had passed.

 

[Nilgiri]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...aking-shorter-routes/articleshow/70258654.cms

Fares to US, Europe drop by 15-20% as Pakistan opens airspac ..

• Where to?
  
• And what was the volume % of the overall Pak air traffic?

Malaysia/Australia form a tiny % of Pak air volume. Europe, MENA, America are the big chunk.

I dunno, 50 million/pakistan aviation revenue in typical year would give you some idea. Singapore, KL, Bangkok are also profitable flight hubs (dunno how long these were cancelled for, and which PIA flies to) given connections to rest of world.

I'm not saying its a huge impact given you are right about the bulk revenue is from flights to gulf for pakistan.....but 50 mil to 100 mil is ratio of just 2 times for India's loss (in aviation sector directly)....so impact in India was even more minimal.

a) The much larger impact was on global aviation industry outside of the 2 countries.

b) The much larger impact on Pakistan economy esp was from the other sectors of economy that need some level of hot money/FPI flow to keep going...and need cold money investment to expand etc. These were affected by the situation for sure....though not the whole period (but at least maybe some weeks or a month or so....it will have to be analysed).

 

[Kaniska]

@Nilgiri The 100/50 million dollar equation is nonsense. And I don't have to pore over the maths for that. Are we supposed to believe that Indian air traffic volume is only twice bigger then Pakistan? Are we supposed to believe that Bangkok, Kaula Lumpur and Sydney are traffic hubs for Pakistan outbound flights?

Or that Europe, Middle East, America are not Indian hubs for outbound flights? Te figure quoted do not even hold water at the minimal testing.

Excuses were running thin. Don't forget lot of flights are by western airlines. PMIK is off to USA. And it had been notified month ago that flights would be re-opened in July as the original date had passed.

Forget the mathematics of the ban, but what propelled Pakistan to open air space to India? You guys can not even continue with your ban for an year or so??

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...aking-shorter-routes/articleshow/70258654.cms

Fares to US, Europe drop by 15-20% as Pakistan opens airspac ..

• Where to?
  
• And what was the volume % of the overall Pak air traffic?

Malaysia/Australia form a tiny % of Pak air volume. Europe, MENA, America are the big chunk.

Fares are speculative in nature...If there is a long term ban, then who ever is flying out they will be prepared to pay more..