Myanmar operation fallout: Pakistan should clean up its mess before warning India
Pakistan has warned India not to embark upon any "misadventure" by launching a Myanmar-type military operation against terror outfits on its soil. Speaking to
The Times of India, Pakistan interior minister Nisar Ali Khan said, "Pakistan is not Myanmar, and India should not think of repeating such an exercise inside Pakistani territory." The remark came a day after the Indian Army launched an attack on militants taking shelter in Myanmar.
While Pakistan issued a warning, it also, at the same time, upped its ante and both its civilian and military leaderships are now blaming India for everything wrong happening on its soil.
Representational image. AFP
But the truth is starkly different. It is not a secret that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government has failed to keep any of the promises it made at the time of taking over charge two years ago.
Forget the power outages (which are as widespread as ever) and the untamed inflation. The Sharif government's track record in taming terror is abysmal. There is no let up in terrorist violence and terror groups are flourishing as always.
The Generals who now run Pakistan have not had much success either. After terrorists captured soldiers, beheaded them, posted the gory pictures on the net and played football with their severed heads, General Raheel Sharif said enough was enough and said he won’t let even one terrorist survive.
The General first launched a massive military campaign in the tribal areas, demolished towns and villages in the process, killed several hundreds and drove, a million or so innocent men, women and children out of their homes. But did the terrorists disappear? Not even General Sharif can confidently admit to that.
Yes, the Army propaganda machine has been relaying regularly that hundreds of militants have been killed in the military campaign which has continued now for almost a year. Does it take a professional army to clear a few strongholds of militancy a year?
The reality on the ground is telling. The no-go areas controlled by the militants remain intact; in fact new terrorist groups like Islamic State are steadily taking over from the local militant groups. The army, after a year of bombing townships and villages, mountaintops and valleys, cannot declare victory. It cannot, and has not, said that it has been able to clear the area of militants.
The militant groups, though on the back-foot, are quite active in the areas they dominate. The Pakistan merely stands outside this no-go area. Even General Sharif has not been able to make inroads into this area.
However, it is hardly the fault of Pakistani army. It is not that the military is not capable of making inroads, it perhaps is. But the problem is with Pakistan's policy of categorising terrorist groups as 'good and bad' terrorists.
Now, these 'good and bad' terrorists are brothers in arms and organically difficult to separate. So even if one or two of them are targeted and contained, others remain intact to carry on with the terrorist campaign. The terrorists do not make any such distinction—an enemy is an enemy even if it is a friend to some of them.
The Generals do not want to give up the patronage they shower on some of them since these groups are useful in troubling India and even the US. The problem with both -- the Generals and the civilian leadership -- is that no one believes their stories today. There was a time when they world capitals would pay attention when Pakistan spoke but that was long before 9/11 and much before it became an open secret that Pakistan Army was perhaps one of the biggest sponsors of terrorism in the world today.
In fact, Washington is acutely aware of the fact that at least a few hundred American soldiers have been killed in attacks carried out by terrorist groups with direct or indirect links to the Pakistan Army. And who could forget the fact that it was Pakistan Army which sheltered al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden all those years.
It was the same Pakistan which kept, and continues to do so, the Afghan Taliban armed and secure to take on the US troops deployed in Afghanistan. Without the Pakistan Army support, the Afghan Taliban would have been defeated long ago, giving the US a clear victory in one of the major battles of the century.
The Pakistan Army’s duplicity denied the US its rightful victory in Afghanistan. In fact, the US lost much more than face in Afghanistan: it lost billions of dollars and several thousand lives of its soldiers, most of which could have been avoided if Pakistan and its army had collaborated like a true ally.
Pakistan in fact played Brutus, forcing the US to taste a major defeat after over 10 years of commitment of blood, sweat and dollars in Afghanistan.
So when the leaders who come calling to Washington open files containing manufactured evidence of Indian involvement in creating violence in Pakistan, it would be useful to send them to some of the well-kept libraries in Washington where there are enough documented materials about Pakistan’s complicity with terrorist groups which considered the US their Enemy Number one.
An enemy’s friend cannot be a friend. Washington is acutely aware of this and should therefore tell Pakistani leadership to go back and fix their problem at home. They should either give up supporting terrorist groups or stop blaming India for their own collusion with terrorist groups.
Modi-Doval doctrine worked in Myanmar attack, but chest-thumping unwarranted
The cross-border strike by the Indian army against north-eastern terrorist groups operating out of Myanmar yesterday (9 June) is proof that the Modi-Doval doctrine of proactive deterrence is not a one-off chest-thumping exercise. For that very reason, the actual chest-thumping indulged in by some sections in the media and spokespersons in government is unwarranted and counter-productive.
PM Modi and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. Firstpost
Defence and security strategy is something that evolves after one thinks through all the consequences of action or inaction; hence any premature celebration over the Myanmar swatting of terror groups would not only be wrong, but foolish. The effectiveness of the strategy will only be known over a long period of time, and premature claims of political credit can blow up in the government’s face when the next terrorist action happens – as it surely will. Rest assured, the terror groups are not going to keel over and play dead after just one blow by the Indian army.
That said, there is little doubt that the doctrine being put together by National Security Advisor Ajit Doval with the blessings of Prime Minister
Narendra Modi is the right one. It can work if it is put consistently into action – on the military, diplomatic, internal security and economic fronts.
Also, we need to be clear that dealing with terrorists in Myanmar is different from dealing with the likes of the Lashkar-e-Toiba which has the active backing of the Pakistani army and the ISI. What worked in Myanmar will not work on our western borders against Jihadi groups. For that we need covert guerilla action, not direct attacks.
The key elements of the Modi-Doval strategy, as evident from the actions of the government over the last one year, are these:
First, any violent action against India by any hostile group, whether led by state or non-state actors, will be met with a robust response. This was demonstrated first when Pakistani forces kept firing across the international border in Jammu & Kashmir, and the Border Security Force (BSF) retaliated with twice the firepower, surprising the Pakistanis.
Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar explained the policy last December. He said his instructions to the BSF were simple and straightforward: “When something happens, retaliate with double the force.” Parrikar’s other statement – widely criticised for being too close to the truth – was that India should
“neutralise terrorists through terrorists only.” It is not clear if India has actually begun training and recruiting irregular combatants to deal with Pakistan-based terrorists (but this clearly needs to be done). Parrikar’s mistake was not in what he said was needed, but in talking about it openly, and thus alerting the Pakistanis about our intentions.
Second, pre-emption is now part of India’s counter-terror strategy. The Myanmar operation has been explained not as revenge for the ambush that killed 18 army personnel last week, but as a pre-emptive strike against another potential terror attack. This pre-emption was also evident last December, when the Coast Guard chased and destroyed an alleged Pakistani “terror boat” that
critics claimed was just a smugglers' vessel. While the versions on how it went down are divergent – the defence ministry said the “terrorists” on board set fire to their own boat and sank it, while one senior Coast Guard official claimed it was destroyed on his orders – the fact is that both versions point to the same strategy: India has decided not to take chances by treating potential threats with kid gloves.
Third, India is seeking more self-sufficiency in crucial defence equipment and armaments as a long-term goal. One area where considerable progress has been made is in field guns. The government-run Ordinance Factory Board has used Swedish drawings to produce a gun that is better than the Bofors howitzer that was successfully used in the Kargil war. According to Ajai Shukla, a defence writer in
Business Standard, the India-made gun (called Dhanush) has successfully cleared field trials. It is not just a copy of the 39-calibre Bofors gun, but an improvement, with a robust 45-calibre capability. It will go into production soon. These guns are key to defending the Chinese border, where artillery will have to make up for our lack of adequate mobility due to poor roads and mountainous terrain.
In warships, India is becoming more self-sufficient with the launch of stealth destroyer INS Visakhapatnam by Modi in April. These
destroyers are being built at the lowest possible cost in the world, Shukla notes. The final frontier is, of course, fighter aircraft. India signed a deal to buy 36 Rafale fighters in flyaway condition over two years, but the crucial point is whether the French will transfer technology and allow us to build it at home.
Financial stringency has forced
Parrikar to cut down the size of the 17th mountain corps by half, but this decision clearly needs to be reviewed as this corps may be key to deterring China from adventurism in the north-east.
When the private sector starts getting more deeply into defence, India’s self-sufficiency will improve across the board.
Fourth, another key element of the Modi-Doval doctrine is robust external diplomacy. Even though
Rahul Gandhi has referred derisively to Modi’s frequent trips abroad, the Gandhi scion should know that these tours are absolutely vital for national security – especially building an effective alliance to deter a militaristic China. Modi has visited most of our neighbours (Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Myanmar), and all of our potential allies who are on the same page as us on the China threat: Japan, the US, etc. If China is trying to contain India with its string-of-pearls strategy by building alliances with our neighbours, the Modi-Doval doctrine seeks to neutralise it by an effective neighbourhood policy, and closer relationships with the major powers opposed to China. Only Vietnam is left to be toured, though President
Pranab Mukherjee did visit that country to emphasise close ties.
The Modi-Doval doctrine is the right one for India, but in order to work, it needs consistency over a long period of time. We need to make the right investments to strengthen defence and internal security. But above all, we need an economy growing well above 7 percent to bankroll this strategy. A defence strategy without an economic component will be no different from Jawaharlal Nehru’s empty foreign policy based on talk and bluster on the Chinese border.
Might respects might, and this is central to the success of the Modi-Doval doctrine that will have to handle both Pakistan and China together. Both of them are watching us closely.
Modi-Doval doctrine worked in Myanmar attack, but chest-thumping unwarranted - Firstpost
Striking militants in Myanmar: The [HASHTAG]#56inchrocks[/HASHTAG] rhetoric is unhelpful
India has grappled with terror -- internally and externally -- for a long time. At numerous times during this war, we have all wondered why India couldn't just do an Israel; send crack assassin teams and eliminate the known faces of terror; 'bump off' the likes of Dawood Ibrahim. Why couldn't India just do a Rambo?
So when the special forces of the Indian Army carried out a surgical covert strike deep inside Myanmar early Tuesday, it seemed like India had finally found the guts to go after terrorists undeterred by international borders.
Hours after the Army’s operations in Myanmar, Minister of State for Information & Broadcasting Rajyavardhan Rathore -- who is a retired Colonel -- said that the strikes were a message to all hostile countries and groups.
Reuters.
“We will not tolerate any strikes on India or Indians. We’ll always wield the initiative on either being friendly or engaging in aggressive action. We will strike at a place and at a time of our choosing,” Rathore told
The Indian Express.
“This is a message for all countries, including Pakistan, and groups harbouring terror intent towards India. A terrorist is a terrorist and has no other identity. We will strike when we want to.”
Rathore also tweeted out a stern message.
The Army, on its part, also declared that this wasn't a one-off operation in its official statement: "While ensuring peace and tranquility along the border and in the border states, any threat to our security, safety and national integrity will meet a firm response."
The reality, however, is very different.
A country cannot just go out there and attack groups without any real evidence or international sanction. Even the United States can't bomb or infiltrate countries at whim.
Until a while ago Indian authorities didn't know where Dawood Ibrahim was, and that was their excuse for not taking action. But how about Jamaat-ud-Dawa chief Hafeez Saeed who is out and about in plain sight? TV channels manage to track him down, videos surface all the time, but all India can do is politely ask Pakistan to hand him over. There isn't even an extradition treaty in place. The reason a strike -- similar to the one we conducted in Myanmar -- is not possible in Pakistan: they have a nuclear deterrent and of course, they really don't like us.
We have a similar case in China which regularly makes border incursions; issues stapled visas; makes claims on Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh and provided Pakistan with weapons and aid as well. But does India do anything? Incredibly, there were
Chinese incursions in Leh while their Premier Xi Jinping was enjoying a feast with Modi in 2014.
Instead, when PM
Narendra Modi goes to China -- he talks business because that's all we can do.
In May, while speaking at the annual K F Rustamji lecture,
National Security Advisor Ajit Doval said: "Both (China and Pakistan) these countries are not that type of democracy that we understand as an enabling democracy." A remark that clearly shows normal measures won't suffice here.
Any military foray into China or Pakistan will be taken as an act of war. And is India really in a position to fight a war? The
Indian Army's war wastage reserves are just at around 50 percent -- which means that they can probably fight a full-fledged battle for just 20 days.
Let's face it! We can only play tough in places like Myanmar, which we can push around the way the US did Pakistan. So let's not pretend we can just saunter over the border with China or Pakistan without creating an international incident whose consequences we likely can't bear.
So really, Rathore and co need to spare us the Rambo rhetoric -- we do what we can but that is about it. All this talk of 'we will strike at a place and at a time of our choosing' is great PR, but let's not buy our own hype.
To send a stern message to Pakistan, target known terrorists in Pakistan. To send a stern message to China, we could start by at least protesting their constant incursions over our border. Taking out 20-odd militants is not going to make us a superpower anytime soon.
Striking militants in Myanmar: The [HASHTAG]#56inchrocks[/HASHTAG] rhetoric is unhelpful - Firstpost