Pakistan Inflation Tracker

[maqsad]

Does anyone know what is going on here? Why are these prices skyrocketing like this.

Overall inflation touches new height



By Mubarak Zeb Khan
​

ISLAMABAD, March 15: The weekly inflation, measured through the Sensitive Price Index (SPI), increased by 15.67 per cent during the week ended on March 14, over the corresponding period last year, according to the Statistics Division data on Saturday.

The steady increase in the prices of 24 items for the second consecutive week pushed up the overall inflation to a new height, witnessed for the first time in the recorded history of the country.

Last week, the SPI witnessed an increase of 14.53 per cent, which rose from over 12 per cent in the previous week.

The unexpected increase in the SPI was hard-hitting for the people from the low-income group as compared to the rich.

A further increase in the oil prices would further push up prices of these products.

The SPI witnessed an increase of 18.47 per cent and 17.79pc, respectively, for households in the two lower income brackets of up to Rs3,000 and Rs3,001 to 5,000.

For households in the income brackets of Rs5,001 to 12,000, the increase in the SPI was in the range of 16.75 per cent, while for households in the income basket of over Rs12,000, the inflation registered a growth of 14.04 per cent over the week last year.As compared to the previous week, the SPI registered an increase of 0.71 per cent for almost all income groups.

Prices of 24 items went up as compared to the previous week.

Prices of chicken increased by 7.47 per cent to Rs90.67 per kg as against Rs84.37 while an increase of 5.40 per cent was witnessed in cooking oil (tin) which stood at Rs366.53 per 2.5 kg during the week under review as against Rs347.76.

The prices of vegetable ghee tin increased by 4.85 per cent to Rs357.47 per 2.5 kg from Rs340.88, and of red chillies by 3.67 per cent to Rs146.20 per kg as against Rs141.03.

The voil printed prices increased by 3.13 per cent to Rs40.89 per metre against Rs39.65; lawn prices increased by 2.72 per cent to Rs83.40 per metre from Rs39.65; washing soap nylon 2.31 per cent to 10.65 per cent per cake from Rs10.41.

Tomato prices increased by 1.86 per cent to Rs36.67 per kg as against Rs36, rice basmati broken increased by 1.74pc to Rs38.58 per kg as against Rs37.92.

The curd price increased by 1.31 per cent to Rs36.43 per kg as against Rs35.96, cooked dal plate witnessed an increase of 1.24 per cent to Rs21.25 each against Rs20.99, Banana prices increased by 1.19 per cent to Rs34.87 per dozen as against Rs34.46.Price of milk fresh went up by 1.14 per cent to Rs31.08 per kg as against Rs30.73, coarse lattha was up 0.96 per cent to Rs39.84 per metres as against Rs39.46.

Rice irri-6 prices increased by 0.94 per cent to Rs27.78 per kg as against Rs27.52, tea (prepared) witnessed an increase of by 0.84 per cent to Rs7.24 per cup as against Rs7.18, wheat flour went up by 0.76 per cent to Rs17.14 per kg as against Rs17.01.Price of masoor (washed) increased by 0.69 per cent to Rs80.52 per kg as against Rs79.97.

There was an increase of 0.66 per cent in mash (washed) to Rs72.03 per kg against Rs71.56.

Firewood prices increased by 0.63 per cent to Rs233.87 per 40 kg as against Rs232.40, gram (washed) increased by 0.50 per cent to Rs43.95 per kg as against Rs43.73.

Mustard oil prices increased by 0.26 per cent to Rs140.47 per kg as against Rs140.10, kerosene witnessed an increase of 0.09 per cent to Rs45.59 per litres as against Rs45.55 and mutton was up 0.06 per cent to Rs239.14 per kg against Rs238.99.



Overall inflation touches new height -DAWN - Business; March 16, 2008

 

[EagleEyes]

Get used to this type of news since the new government is in.

 

[fatman17]

Bloomberg.com

Pakistan Inflation Accelerates to Fastest in 25 Years (Update2)

By Farhan Sharif

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan's inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in at least 25 years in April because of surging food and fuel prices, straining a six-week-old coalition government already on the brink of collapse.

Consumer prices jumped 17.21 percent from a year earlier after gaining 14.1 percent in March, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said in a statement in Islamabad today.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said on May 4 that soaring oil and food prices are undermining the fight against poverty. Pakistan's ability to rein in prices may be hampered as Nawaz Sharif's party said it may quit the coalition led by the Pakistan Peoples Party today.

``If the trend continues, it will cause serious concerns to the new government,'' said Farhan Rizvi, an economist at JS Global. ``Oil prices have added to already high food prices, which directly hit the masses.''

Oil at more than $125 a barrel and declining wheat production are straining state finances as food and fuel are subsidized in the nation of 160 million people. Hundreds of people queue for hours outside state-run shops to buy the subsidized wheat flour and other essential goods across the nation.

Food prices in April rose 25.5 percent from a year ago and fuel prices climbed 8.6 percent, according to the data. Historical inflation data is compiled by JS Global Capital Ltd. in Karachi. The statistics bureau doesn't have data preceding the year 2000.

Stocks, Currency

Pakistan's key stock index rose 0.4 percent to 14,286.61 at the 2:15 p.m. local time close today, after falling 4.9 percent last week, the biggest weekly decline in almost nine months. The rupee, rose 1 percent to 69 today, after losing 6.8 percent last week, the most since 1998.

Almost half the population of Pakistan, the world's seventh- most-populous nation, faces difficulty gaining access to affordable food because of the soaring cost of cereals, a World Food Program spokesman Paul Risley said on April 23.

The Rome-based United Nations agency increased its estimate of the number of so-called food insecure people in Pakistan to 77 million from 60 million.

The nation may import more than 1.5 million metric tons of wheat this year to ease the shortage, farm minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali said on April 24.

The average price of pulses has risen about 50 percent since January, said Fareed Qureshi, chairman of the Karachi Retail Market Association. Average edible oil prices have climbed 16 percent since the start of the year and rice is 26 percent more costly than it was on Jan. 1, he said.

``Pakistan's prices of wheat, flour, edible oil and pulses are at a record now,'' Qureshi said.

Oil Bill

Pakistan, which imports about 85 percent of the oil it uses, increased prices of gasoline for the first time in more than 22 months on Feb. 29 after record crude prices increased import costs for the nation's refiners. Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority, the regulator, has since raised prices three more times.

The trade deficit widened to $2.3 billion in April from $1.1 billion because of the rising oil import bill, the Bureau of Statistics said on May 10.

The central bank increased its benchmark interest rate for a second straight meeting on Jan. 31 to tame inflation. The discount rate for commercial lenders was raised half a percentage point to 10.5 percent for the six months ending June 30. Inflation may exceed the government's target of 6.5 percent this year, curbing economic growth, the central bank said on March 31.

``The inflation is paced mainly by food and oil prices,'' said Suleman Akhtar, an economist at Foundation Securities in Karachi. ``In current conditions, a rise in interest rates would not do much.''

China, India

Rising commodity prices are also stoking inflation in neighboring India and China. Prices in China accelerated to near the fastest in more than 11 years, the government said today, while inflation in India is at a 3 1/2 year high.

Pakistan's consumer prices may jump as much as 9 percent this fiscal year ending June 30, exceeding the target of 6.5 percent, the central bank estimates. Annual inflation may reach 12.5 percent, said JS Global's Rizvi.

Ruling Coalition

Sharif, who leads a faction of the Pakistan Muslim League, the second-largest party in parliament, may withdraw from the PPP-led government because of a dispute over sacked judges.

Leaders of the Muslim League will meet today in Islamabad, after the former prime minister held three days of talks in London with Asif Ali Zardari, the co-chairman of the PPP, the main party in the coalition.

``The talks have not moved forward because of a deadlock caused by the PPP,'' Siddique-ul-Farooq, a spokesman for the Muslim League, said late yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Farhan Sharif in Karachi at fsharif2@bloomberg.net.

 

[maqsad]

Fact: One of the main causes of inflation, especially hyperinflation is an oversupply of currency in the M1 money supply in relation to the rates of economic growth.

Question: How many extra ruppees did Shaukat Aziz and his dream team print pump into the pakistani economy between 1999 and 2007?

 

[EagleEyes]

Pakistan's Inflation Jumps to 30-Year High of 21.53% (Update2)

By Khalid Qayum

July 11 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan's inflation accelerated to a 30-year high in June, increasing speculation that the central bank may raise interest rates as early as this month.

Consumer prices in South Asia's second-largest economy jumped 21.53 percent from a year earlier after gaining 19.27 percent in May, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said in Islamabad today. Economists were expecting a 20 percent gain.

``A 50 to 100 basis point increase in interest rates can't be ruled out,'' said Muzzammil Aslam, an economist at KASB Securities Ltd. in Karachi. ``Inflation will average 20 percent in next six months because of high food and oil prices.''

Governor Shamshad Akhtar has unexpectedly increased the State Bank of Pakistan's benchmark interest rate twice this year to 12 percent, the second-highest in Asia. That's yet to have an impact on inflation, which the central bank says is being driven by ``heavy'' government borrowings to fund its budget deficit.

Consumer price gains averaged 12 percent in the year ending June 30, from 7.8 percent in the previous 12 months, according to today's Federal Bureau report. The average annual inflation is the highest since 1995, KASB's Aslam said.

Governor Akhtar and her colleagues are due to release their next monetary policy statement later this month.

The central bank in June said government borrowing from the State Bank, estimated at 9 percent of gross domestic product last fiscal year, ``cannot be sustained'' without further stoking inflation.

Pakistan's budget deficit reached a 10-year high of about 7 percent of GDP in the 12 months to June 30, according to Finance Minister Naveed Qamar. The nation's first civilian government since a 1999 military coup says it wants to narrow the gap to 4.7 percent of GDP next fiscal year.

Prices also increased after the government raised domestic fuel prices five times in four months in line with global crude costs. Pakistan imports about 85 percent of the oil it uses.

To contact the reporter on this story: Khalid Qayum in Islamabad, Pakistan at kqayum@bloomberg.net.

Bloomberg.com: India & Pakistan

 

[EagleEyes]

Come on. How can it be this bad!

 

[araz]

webby.
Ithink this was bound to happen. We have a faltering economy,mainly due to unprecedented rise in petrol prices, and the down turn in economy due to various factors. Incompetant as they are, the present Govt, can not take credit for this one atleast. They have not helped by not tackling the core issues that effect us though!!
WaSalam
Araz

 

[EagleEyes]

I mean. The oil prices are not just recently up. They have been up for quite a while. Why is it that only THIS government is getting effected by the oil prices? I simply don't buy the blame game this government is trying to pursue while trying to hide its incompetency by borrowing more and more debts and aids.

 

[MHCN]

Selected points from The Rich Islamic Economic System that would help Check Inflation:​

1 Hard Currency – Tied to Gold standard.
Today countries artificially create currency by printing money as required. Whenever our Govt borrows money from SBP it is effectively printing the money and devaluing our currency and the very notes in our pockets over night. This has a big knock on effect on inflation. Scary when you think about it, the very notes in our pockets have no intrinsic value of their own and only possess the value of the paper they are printed on.

The Islamic system requires currency / medium of exchange to be based on the Gold & Silver standard which have an intrinsic value. Notes can be used to represent the precious metals instead of carrying gold and silver around, but they must be backed up by them. Due to the intrinsic value in the precious metals stability is achieved and devaluation and inflation controlled.


2 No Artificial money
As well as printing, money is also artificially created via bank loans. Banks regularly loan out more money than they have and there is in circulation i.e. they lend what they don’t have (e.g. in US in 2007 the debt was seven times the amount of money in actual circulation). This artificial consumer spending power also leads to inflation, as artificially increased money supply is competing in chasing limited goods.

The Islamic system doesn’t only forbid Riba, but also does not allow you to loan what you don’t own or have. Money cannot be pulled out of a rabbit’s hat. Banks cannot produce money.


3 Ownership of Oil, Gas, Natural Resources.
Pricing and inflation is also linked to the cost of energy resources. The price of a barrel of oil is rising exponentially and likewise is the cost of production and transportation. This has a direct effect on the price of all commodities especially the basic necessities such as food items (due to the barbaric Capitalist system, the poor are finding it difficult to buy food). High-energy costs are affected by govt taxes and drive for profits by hungry companies and this contributes to inflation.

Islam’s solution is based on its view of ownership and permissibility of generating profits from natural resources. Islam is the only system that defines 3 types of ownership; individual, public and state property. The Prophet SAW in his Hadith has included natural resources that combust (oil field, gas field, coal mine, etc) as public property as well as other natural resources. Public property can not be transferred to the state or private sector, but remains the property of the public (Muslim Ummah) and is run by the Islamic state for their benefit on a no profit, no tax basis. Any profit generated by selling surplus oil to friendly non-muslim countries must be spent on the Ummah. Imagine you could receive a cheque in the post from the Khalif with your share from the profits generated by oil revenue.
Hence the Islamic view on natural resources would be a pivotal factor in reducing prices and controlling inflation.

4 No hoarding to manipulate supply and demandWe know the capitalists regularly hoard essential items in an attempt to artificially affect supply and demand in order to push up prices. This usually happens under the govts. nose.

The Islamic system would actively prevent hoarding and the artificial manipulation of supply and demand.


5 Revival of Dead Land
The Prophet SAW informed us that a Muslim who revives a dead Khiraji land, which was never cultivated since Muslims opened it, would own the neck as well as its produce. The Prophet SAW also informed us any Muslim or Zimmi (non-Muslim citizen of the Islamic state) who revives a dead Khiraji land on which Khiraj was applied in the past would own the produce, whilst the neck would remain with the State.

The concept being whoever revives a dead land can benefit from it. In Pakistan there is approx 9,709,300 (one crore) Acres of barren land can you imagine the benefit to the state and the populace of reviving this land. This presents a great incentive for poor farm workers and others to take advantage of this Islamic rule and revive dead land and the whole state would benefit. Poverty would be reduced, employment would increase and so would production. Increased production leads to increased supply and therefore cheaper prices and lower inflation.

6 Independence from dictates of Colonial Organisations
Muslim countries do not have independent economic policies but take dictates from colonial organisations such as World Bank, IMF, WTO, etc. These organisations dictate a wide range of policy issues including removal of govt. subsidies on energy resources and subsidies to industry and agriculture. These subsidy removals also lead to higher prices and inflation for the general populace.

The Islamic State would not take dictates from any organisations regarding its policies. The state would enact Islamic policies beneficial to its citizens, without a care for such organisations.



These are just a few aspects of the Islamic economic system that would help lower and control inflation. Islam is a complete way of life and implementing aspects of it in a pick and choose fashion would not achieve the desired result. The complete system must be implemented as other parts are interlinked and work together(social, political, economic, penal, education, etc). The motivation for implementing the Islamic System should be derived from our desire to please our Creator.

========================================================================


Other aspects of the Islamic Economic System:

1. Company Structure.a) Al-Inan (The Company of Equals),
b) Al-Abdan (The Company of Bodies),
c) Mudharaba (The Company of Body and Effort),
d) Wujooh (The Company of Reputation),
e) Mufawadha (Combination of Above).


2. Taxation System (Revenue and Expenditure)
No taxes on common man such as GST which does not differentiate between rich, poor, widow, child, etc all have to pay regardless of your economic standing. Wealth Tax, Income Tax, Withholding Tax all have no place in Islam. Islamic Taxes Include:
a) Al-Kharaj,
b) Al-Jizya,
c) Al-Ushr,
d) The Fifth of Al Rikaz (Hidden treasures),
e) Zackat on Import / Export of the Muslim Trader,
f) Hima,
g) Import / Export Duty on Foreign Traders.


3. Types of ownership
a) State Property,
b) Public Property,
c) Private Property.


4. Land Ownership and Land Laws
5. Non Interest banking system.

These are but a few.
Any mistakes or contradictions are from me and not from Islam, as Islam is from our Creator and therefore beyond any error, mistake or contradiction.

 

[Contrarian]

I mean. The oil prices are not just recently up. They have been up for quite a while. Why is it that only THIS government is getting effected by the oil prices? I simply don't buy the blame game this government is trying to pursue while trying to hide its incompetency by borrowing more and more debts and aids.

Every country is getting affected mate. Inflation in India is around 11.8% last i read, and everyone is crying foul. Almost every country has had to increase petrol prices, and those that have not are suffering MASSIVE losses in the subsidies.

 

[Neo]

Come on. How can it be this bad!

Webby,

The old laws of the marketplace are no longer working. Food prices have been rising for six years because of surging demand, and increased production is not restoring the balance as it used to in the past. In fact, prices have been going up even faster over the last year.

The so-called "financialization" of commodities markets, that is, the influx of investment funds seeking safer and more lucrative assets, has intensified the trend and at the moment impinges more than the law of supply and demand.

The phenomena is not only seen in Pakistan but continues to hit more and more and even stronger economies around the world.

 

[araz]

Webby,

The old laws of the marketplace are no longer working. Food prices have been rising for six years because of surging demand, and increased production is not restoring the balance as it used to in the past. In fact, prices have been going up even faster over the last year.

The so-called "financialization" of commodities markets, that is, the influx of investment funds seeking safer and more lucrative assets, has intensified the trend and at the moment impinges more than the law of supply and demand.

The phenomena is not only seen in Pakistan but continues to hit more and more and even stronger economies around the world.

Good post Neo
I think where as generally what you have said is true, in Pakistan we have traditionally been very complacent with our resources and life in general. The agricultural sector is not taxed so they are happy doing whatever they do.The poor Mazara has no interest in planting the land on time as he generally gets pittance out of it. Water resources are used badly and wastage of phenomenal amounts of water and other resources is common. On top of all of this there is unchecked hoarding, smuggling and other natural or self inflicted calamities. consequently being an agricultural country, we dont porduce enough to satisfy our needs.
i remember reading that the per acre yield of rice in Japan is many folds more than ours. I am sure there are many more countries who are growing more grain per acre than us.
I think like everything in Pakistan, better management of agricultural setup , with more emphasis on utilizing all the land, reclaiming land lost to water logging and salinity,and more efficient utilization of resources may alleviate some of our problems though not all.
i suggest land Tax increasing incrementally in accordance with realistic Governemtn targets, offsets for reclaiming land lost to waterlogging and salinity, and use of water efficiently along with plantation of seeds on timemay be some initial steps to increase the out put of crop from our lands.
WaSalam
Araz

 

[ajpirzada]

By Farhan Sharif

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan’s inflation eased to a 13- month low in April, giving the central bank room to further cut interest rates.

Consumer prices in South Asia’s second-largest economy rose 17.19 percent from a year earlier after gaining 19.07 percent in March, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said on its Web site today. Economists were expecting a 16.5 percent gain.

The central bank last month cut borrowing costs for the first time since 2002, reducing its benchmark rate to 14 percent from 15 percent. Lower rates may help prop up growth in Pakistan, which is struggling to deal with Islamic insurgents and a crumbling economy.

“The inflation trend shows that the central bank’s rate- cut decision was timely,” said Asif Qureshi, head of research at Invisor Securities Ltd. in Karachi. “Easing inflation will help the country regain some economic stability amid very difficult conditions.”

International donors meeting in Tokyo last month pledged more than $5 billion to help Pakistan shore up its ailing finances and fight terrorism. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani on May 7 vowed to eliminate Taliban gunmen who have advanced to within 100 kilometers (60 miles) of the capital Islamabad.

State Bank of Pakistan predicts inflation may ease to 11 percent by June. Former Governor Shamshad Akhtar last year increased the central bank’s key rate to the highest in more than a decade to slow inflation and help shore up the nation’s foreign-exchange reserves.

The country was forced to turn to the International Monetary Fund for a $7.6 billion rescue package in November after its reserves shrank 75 percent in a year to $3.45 billion.

Higher borrowing costs have dented growth in the economy, which is predicted by the government to expand 2.5 percent in the year to June 30, down from 5.8 percent last year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Farhan Sharif in Karachi at fsharif2@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: May 11, 2009 00:55 EDT
- Bloomberg.com

 

[Hasnain2009]

And before two months Shaukat Tarin said that they will bring it to single digit before august!

 

[San]

The ups and downs of recession are everywhere but it's still interesting to see it put into facts and figures like this.