Bro that's exactly what people for centuries have said and thought about so many powerful empires like Egyptian, Roman, Byzantine, Muslim, Ottoman, Mongol, Mughal, British people used to say the same exact words for Wehrmacht (yes it's me who's saying this for Wehrmacht) and RED army where are they now?
Bro,
There might be people who feared these great Empires but some refused to be intimidated; history is filled with examples of people and/or civilizations who challenged these great Empires in the battlefield and otherwise. Ancient times were not
R&D driven and lesser societies were able to establish formidable armies of their own from time-to-time.
Nonetheless, your argument has merit: history is filled with examples of rise (and) fall of great civilizations and this pattern contains valuable lessons for modern-era states:
1. Some slowly drifted away from supremacy due to internal factors
in large part such as gradual decline in their social order, erosion of nationality and incessant power struggles [
internal decay in short]. Examples include Egyptian*, Macedonian, Roman, Ottoman and Han Dynasty and Yuan Dynasty.
2. Some drifted away from supremacy due to combination of natural threats (and) internal decay. Examples include Mayan and Amazon River civilizations.
*
Egyptian Empire managed to cope with numerous natural threats but not internal decay.
3. Some collapsed due to pressures of "great wars." Examples include Carthage, Babylonian, Persian, British, French, Spanish and USSR**.
**
USSR not only failed to cope with pressures of (multi-spectrum) Cold War with the NATO bloc but also drifted away from its founding principles.
NOTE: I do not count Mongols as a great civilization because they were mostly well-organized barbarian forces who settled in distant places across the known world and end-up creating different societies. Examples include Timurid Empire in the Middle East and Yuan Dynasty in China.
I agree with your argument that modern-era states are not immune to failure. Ancient realities are just as relevant today as they were in the past; a powerful state destroying a lesser state in a prolonged conflict; a powerful state risking loss of its supremacy due to
internal decay in large part, pressures of conflict with a powerful enemy, or combination of multiple factors. Humans (and their creations) are
not infallible in the end.
USA is also a human creation. Though its strengths are numerous; it is not an
all-powerful entity and does not have
infallible judgement.
My point was in regards to realities of USA in
recent history (and)
current times. I cannot predict its future.
1) It hasn't seen an army which can truly challenge it
Bro,
I do not get this statement. Shall we assume an (hypothetical) army or a (real-world) army that can truly challenge American army (in its existing form) in the battlefield?
Take a good look at forces that modern-era Americans [now USA] have challenged in the battlefield:-
http://www.historycentral.com/wars.html
https://www.va.gov/opa/publications/factsheets/fs_americas_wars.pdf (PDF format)
1. US fought for its independence from the mighty British Empire (during its zenith) and eventually succeeded in this mission (1775 - 1812). How many former "colonies" of British Empire can make a similar claim?
2. US soundly defeated the neighboring Mexican Empire in a war (1846 - 1848) and annexed 7 states from it. This Mexican Empire was a major geopolitical rival of US during the era of Industrial Revolution.
3. US fully recovered from a bloody civil war (1861 - 1865) in a span of 40 years and soundly defeated the mighty Spanish Empire in a war (1898 - 1902) in order to ensure its supremacy across Americas; the same Spanish Empire that challenged Ottoman and British Empires for supremacy for centuries. Historians credit this victory for propelling US into the realm of supremacy.
NOTE: Many people assume that US became a superpower in the aftermath of WW-II but this not true. US became a superpower after routing the Spanish Empire from the Americas during the start of 19th century. By the time of WW-II, US was a well-established Industrial, economic and military giant whose support could be a game-changer for a regional player across the world.
4. US fought the Imperial Japanese in the Pacific and the Nazi Wehrmacht in Europe during WW-II and defeated both forces in the battlefield. They were coping with other opponents just fine until US entered the picture.
5. US saved South Korea from annexation at the hands of North Korea (1950 - 1953). In those years, North Korea was much stronger than South Korea and its war-machine was one of the finest in the region.
Learn more:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-day-north-korea-defeated-the-us-army-16094
http://www.history.com/topics/korean-war
6. US saved Kuwait from annexation at the hands of Iraq (1991). Back then, Iraq was a battle-hardened and dominant player in the Middle East and its conventional war-machine ranked 4th in size and capability internationally.
Learn more:
http://articles.latimes.com/1991-03-06/news/mn-359_1_north-korea
https://fas.org/nuke/guide/iraq/agency/army.htm
https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/media/csis/pubs/iraq88-93.pdf (PDF format)
---
My point is that the aforementioned SIX were formidable opponents (of USA) in their own right and their defeats cannot be (and should not be) dismissed as lack of strength on their part; USA was simply better and more capable.
Today, some gloat that "we are not Iraq" in discussions but they somehow fail to grasp the reality that they are strong (in regional context) but much like Iraq next to strengths of USA.
2) Yes it has technological advantage over rest of the world but it doesn't mean there are aren't armies/countries who can't counter it (Russia and China can) so let's not over glorify them mate their army is also made up of humans not robots time will come when US will go/brought down just like the names mentioned above but "when" and by "whom" is the main question.
Bro,
1. Russia has predominantly nuclear deterrence.
2. China has both nuclear and economic deterrence.
None stand a chance against US in the battlefield otherwise.
Consider following assessments:-
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-russia-air-war-syria-2017-6
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/how-f-22-is-deconflicting-u-s-russia-operations-over-syria.503754/
You get the picture from that.
American war-machine (in its existing form) is incredibly resourceful; much more-so than the usual sophisticated "weapons" we see on TV. It is a potent combination of human resource, most advanced weapons and most comprehensive networks across space, land and sea that collectively translate into unparalleled situational awareness, mobility and reach across the globe.
Just dig into
USSTRATCOM and you will understand.
Iraq and Afghanistan are not the battlefields that will tell you much about American war-machine because these states are already close to being irrelevant and US is hardly into power projection there. These are "political conflicts" in large part. Those who assert that US is experiencing defeat in these regions - do not see the big picture. US invaded Afghanistan to kill Osama Bin Laden and eradicate his network and US invaded Iraq to kill Saddam Hussein and eradicate Ba'ath party; both objectives met. Now, US is looking forward to transform these states into functioning democracies with relevant experiments and this might take time to bear fruit but do-able. However, these are strictly political objectives. If the objective was to exterminate: US would have wiped both Iraq and Afghanistan from existence in a blink of an eye - it can (make no mistake about it).
And evolution of American war-machine is continuous, to ensure its dominance in years to come. Credit goes to incredibly powerful institutions and R&D based education and Industrial base within USA.
Have a look:
Relatively better assessment in this link:
http://www.oecd.org/sti/inno/researchanddevelopmentstatisticsrds.htm
---
China is on the right track with huge investment in its
R&D programs and developing powerful institutions. If any state can challenge US in the future - it is China.
Contrary to the popular belief, Russia is in decline in all spheres. The way things are moving ahead, Russia also risks loosing its nuclear MAD with US at some point in the future. American ABM advances are considerable and have already reached the point of intercepting ICBM in space; these capabilities will only grow in the future.
Think about the situation 50 years from now.
R&D is the key to progress in all spheres of technology and capability in modern times but Russia is terribly lacking in this area. Don't let its fancy toys fool you - they aren't as capable as fanboys like to tout in different communities. And toys are not everything.
P.S before anyone thinks no i am not that typical guy who lives in fantasy world of "Muslims destroying us and israel" i am just stating what history has tells us someone will finish off US just like before with every empire than someone will finish off that empire and the cycle will continue till the judgement day.
@Arsalan @django @Hell hound @Desert Fox @Nilgiri
Bro,
I do not disagree with your point-of-view about fallibility of modern-era states, even super-strong ones like USA. However, there is no guarantee that failures will occur in the ways we predict.
What if China fail in the near future? Let us not assume that China is not vulnerable and/or its current status-quo of leadership in the SUPPLY aspect of consumer goods will continue for indefinite period. The situation might change considerably in the future as various states intend to shift to eco-friendly Industrial practices and there are also environmental realities and human-resource based vulnerabilities to consider. Global Warming phenomenon coupled with emissions from all those factories and ambitious projects like Three Gorges Dam, are having an impact on Chinese environmental conditions to great extent and a huge chunk of Chinese populace is aging.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/06/chinas-twilight-years/480768/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...a-rudong-town-frontline-looming-ageing-crisis
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/04/where-will-climate-change-impact-china-most/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahs...ion-accelerating-climate-change/#76941f2a37ef
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-32006972
Virtually every state is on a rough ride in coming years and it is hard to predict which will collapse earlier than the other; struggles are seemingly endless for all states.
One can easily argue that the challenges USA have been through during the course of its history - might have collapsed many states in its place. Ever thought about this? Even the incredibly devastating civil war (1861 - 1865) was not sufficient to end USA which is nothing short of a miracle. Undoubtedly, USA has proven to be an incredibly resilient state.
---
As hinted above, USA is super-strong due to a number of factors.
1. American leaders have worked hard to build quality institutions over the course of years that continue to deliver (as intended).
2. American leaders have worked hard to curb (racial and ethnic) divide within the increasingly multi-ethnic society over the course of years. Abraham Lincoln took the first step towards this end.
3. 51 states are united in their cause and struggles to propel US forward or rescue it from a major crises.
4. American geography.
5. R&D driven education and Industrial programs.
6. Massive economy.
7. US continues to attract talent from across the world due to its quality institutions and ability to create new jobs from time-to-time.
8. Separation of religion from state (this ensures that a single doctrine won't determine the course of American nationality) and institutions will keep the multi-ethnic society together.
Food for thought:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/realsp...-worlds-unchallenged-superpower/#5b522bcd5b6e
https://worldview.stratfor.com/analysis/geopolitics-united-states-part-1-inevitable-empire
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahs...he-u-s-as-the-worlds-superpower/#252268d9234d
Now, US is [also] vulnerable to pressures of natural threats, prolonged conflicts and societal problems; nothing can be taken for granted. Man-made institutions are not infallible and no state is
all-powerful.
Surely, nothing lasts forever. Mankind (on the whole) face the prospects of extinction at some point.
Thanks for your input by the way; it generated an interesting conversation.
Google "Operation Inherent Resolve."
You think Iraq is capable of tackling the menace of ISIS on its own in its present state? You are fooling yourself, my friend.
Because they have been trained well in jordan and turkey to fair well against syrians and iraqis to last the bleeding of both countries as long as possible.
Right.