Pakistan has made impressive progress in reducing absolute poverty & improving shared p: World Bank

[Who.Cares]

ISLAMABAD: The World Bank in its recent Macroeconomic Outlook, 2015 about Pakistan has projected steady growth, recovery-cum-low inflation supported by fiscal consolidation and improving external position for the next two years.


According to the World Bank’s Outlook, 2015, Pakistan’s economic growth is projected to accelerate to 4.5 percent in financial year (FY) 2016 and then further to 4.8 percent in FY 2017 supported by strong growth in industry and services.


The Bank report further said that Pakistan’s investment is expected to increase to 15.4 percent of GDP by FY 2017 on account of operationalisation of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) related projects.


The report further said that inflation is projected to stay low in view of low commodity prices, exchange rate stability and prudent fiscal policy.


The World Bank’s Outlook 2015 about Pakistan further said that the current account deficit is projected to increase slightly to 1.0 percent of the GDP by FY2017 but it


would remain manageable.


“So far remittances originating from Gulf countries have not been affected by the decline in oil price and are expected to stay robust in the near term.


Pakistan’s exports are projected to contract in the first year owing to tapered global demand and then grow marginally the following year, it added.


The World Bank Report said that the imports and is projected to post moderate growth due to CPEC related investments and higher domestic demand.


Meanwhile, the World Bank group in its recently published report “Pakistan Country Snapshot” has said that the country has made impressive progress in reducing absolute poverty and improving shared prosperity.


The report said, “The percentage of the population below the national poverty rate has fallen from 34.7 per cent in fiscal year 2002 to an estimated 12.4 per cent in FY2011”.


It said that Pakistan had already achieved the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG) by more than halving between 1991 and 2011, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1.25 a day. Furthermore, growth in the real per capita consumption of the bottom 40 percent is a respectable three percent between 2006 and 2011, it noted.
Pakistan to have steady growth for next two years: World Bank

 

[Spy Master]

If the security and economic situation continuously improving at this rate...2020 would see the rise of Pakistan "again"..!

 

[That Guy]

So, pretty much in line with what I've been saying on the forum.

If the security and economic situation continuously improving at this rate...2020 would see the rise of Pakistan "again"..!

That's a solid maybe. Pakistan's economic growth needs to be 6.5-7%, if it wants to grow at a healthy rate, there is a chance that Pakistan may only reach 6% by 2020. Right now, 5% growth, while respectable, is not enough to cover Pakistan's labor market.

 

[farhan_9909]

The growth rate of Pakistan should not be less than 5% this year otherwise the govt has failed.

 

[Sheikh Rauf]

Khuda ka naam hai..
they havent done anything except getting loans selling euro bonds the reliefe they have got is from lower Gas prices in international market.. but yeah Nawaz sharif their kids their relatives some other wealthy dogs growth is booming they living lives likes prince and princess on the other hand poor cant even afford 70 rupees kilo milk for kids... life is getting harsh and some rich dogs dancing on poorers head ..
May Allah show us the right path so we can get rid of these currept rulers and send us good rullers who lead us towards u (ameen)

 

[Scavenger]

So, pretty much in line with what I've been saying on the forum.


That's a solid maybe. Pakistan's economic growth needs to be 6.5-7%, if it wants to grow at a healthy rate, there is a chance that Pakistan may only reach 6% by 2020. Right now, 5% growth, while respectable, is not enough to cover Pakistan's labor market.

Wouldn't Pakistan need 9% growth rate for the labour market to be even?

Because it has been estimated that India needs 9% growth rate to match jobs with new labour entering the market. And considering that India has a lower birth rate than Pakistan, it means on a percentage basis Pakistan has more people entering the labour market.

So at the very least shouldn't Pakistan need 9% growth rate?

The growth rate of Pakistan should not be less than 5% this year otherwise the govt has failed.

I don't think its possible this year unless your Govt cooks numbers.

But other than that I do see the PMLN as being much more competent than PPP. You should definitely be hitting the 5% rate plus next year i.e. 2017-18 onwards on the back of new infrastructure starting to get built now and better security conditions.

 

[truthseeker2010]

If the security and economic situation continuously improving at this rate...2020 would see the rise of Pakistan "again"..!

So, pretty much in line with what I've been saying on the forum.


That's a solid maybe. Pakistan's economic growth needs to be 6.5-7%, if it wants to grow at a healthy rate, there is a chance that Pakistan may only reach 6% by 2020. Right now, 5% growth, while respectable, is not enough to cover Pakistan's labor market.

That is with the most corrupt regime and the most violent period in the history of the country(2008-2013), yet Pakistan was able to do this much, i have no doubt that with so much more peace, stability and efforts to improve transparency and good governance will only bring prosperity to the country. My prediction is that in the next decade Pakistan will become another miracle story of the world.

 

[Icarus]

Given the present situation, the economy is showing positive signs but in addition to addressing security and energy concerns, it is also important to remember that we need to adopt competitive trade policies in order to be able to offer our labour force to global industry and that is only possible if we revisit our existing policies. Protectionism has kept a number of interested foreign parties out but at the same time, it has failed to allow us to develop any domestic industry as well. As a consequence, we are still stuck exporting mangoes and rice while our marginally more profitable exports like sports goods, leather and surgical goods all face a steady decline.
I think its about time we considered liberalizing our trade regimes a bit and offered investors preferential terms for setting up domestic production facilities. With MENA right next door and Gwadar as a prospective deep sea port, we can turn the Hub and Gwadar special economic zones into Pakistan's industrial lifelines.
So to revise, signs are positive but we need proactive law making in order to ensure that we can build on this impetus and finally achieve our oft-denied goal of being an industrialized economy.

 

[volatile]

The growth rate of Pakistan should not be less than 5% this year otherwise the govt has failed.

What is the rationality behind this ?

 

[Talwar e Pakistan]

ISLAMABAD: The World Bank in its recent Macroeconomic Outlook, 2015 about Pakistan has projected steady growth, recovery-cum-low inflation supported by fiscal consolidation and improving external position for the next two years.


According to the World Bank’s Outlook, 2015, Pakistan’s economic growth is projected to accelerate to 4.5 percent in financial year (FY) 2016 and then further to 4.8 percent in FY 2017 supported by strong growth in industry and services.


The Bank report further said that Pakistan’s investment is expected to increase to 15.4 percent of GDP by FY 2017 on account of operationalisation of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) related projects.


The report further said that inflation is projected to stay low in view of low commodity prices, exchange rate stability and prudent fiscal policy.


The World Bank’s Outlook 2015 about Pakistan further said that the current account deficit is projected to increase slightly to 1.0 percent of the GDP by FY2017 but it


would remain manageable.


“So far remittances originating from Gulf countries have not been affected by the decline in oil price and are expected to stay robust in the near term.


Pakistan’s exports are projected to contract in the first year owing to tapered global demand and then grow marginally the following year, it added.


The World Bank Report said that the imports and is projected to post moderate growth due to CPEC related investments and higher domestic demand.


Meanwhile, the World Bank group in its recently published report “Pakistan Country Snapshot” has said that the country has made impressive progress in reducing absolute poverty and improving shared prosperity.


The report said, “The percentage of the population below the national poverty rate has fallen from 34.7 per cent in fiscal year 2002 to an estimated 12.4 per cent in FY2011”.


It said that Pakistan had already achieved the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG) by more than halving between 1991 and 2011, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1.25 a day. Furthermore, growth in the real per capita consumption of the bottom 40 percent is a respectable three percent between 2006 and 2011, it noted.
Pakistan to have steady growth for next two years: World Bank

I wouldnt put Pakistan's growth rate at 4.7% or 5% - IMF only takes account of current situation; but we know our situation will significantly improve now that TTP is being hammered, Karachi is being tamed and Baloch insurgents are surrendering in large numbers - not to mention CPEC and other billion dollars worth of investments.

Pakistan's growth rate has been very unpredictable - at some times going from 1% to 10% or 3% to 8%; it never keeps a stable rate.

Even our own government has given a 7% estimate for next year.

 

[General General]

Two simple steps can boost the income of Pakistan massively:
1) Establish an effective and dependable e-payment method like PayPal, so that freelancers might able to earn from their home without worrying about the usual hassle of a regular job. Like I mentioned before, I have done some freelance writing in the past and there were a number of Pakistani companies that employed freelancers from all over the country. They can be sitting and working in their home 1,000 miles away from their company office and submit their work via email. It is picking up in Pakistan, but it is a gold mine for the service industry that can do with a lot of improvements. In this way, anyone with a good grasp on written English and access to the internet will able to create their own jobs and earn valuable foreign exchange.

2) Remittances from expat Pakistanis are a vital source of income for the country. But I've read about how inconvenient it is for them to send money home or manage their immigration documents. A dedicated service should be set up to make it more convenient and streamlined, encouraging the inflow of money.

Pakistan has a large young population which can bring great prosperity to the country. A few decades ago, China tapped its population potential and now they are set to overtake the largest economic power in the world.

 

[haviZsultan]

I don't think there has been any positive effect on poverty.Go to north nazimabad in karachi and you will see twice the amount of child beggars you saw 5 years ago. Its not only that they are in abject poverty but also these children are out of schools. Our out of school population may be the second highest in the world, just behind nigeria. We need to take solid steps to curtail this.

 

[axisofevil]

Not impressed at all.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

I don't think there has been any positive effect on poverty.Go to north nazimabad in karachi and you will see twice the amount of child beggars you saw 5 years ago. Its not only that they are in abject poverty but also these children are out of schools. Our out of school population may be the second highest in the world, just behind nigeria. We need to take solid steps to curtail this.

I beg to differ. Go to the outer villages of Rahim Yar Khan and you will see HUGE reductions in poverty. No beggers. All open sewage systems covered, rebuilt and done away. Even the poor have good houses, computers, proper kitchens etc and the people have jobs. This was not the case 5 years ago.

 

[That Guy]

Wouldn't Pakistan need 9% growth rate for the labour market to be even?

Because it has been estimated that India needs 9% growth rate to match jobs with new labour entering the market. And considering that India has a lower birth rate than Pakistan, it means on a percentage basis Pakistan has more people entering the labour market.

So at the very least shouldn't Pakistan need 9% growth rate?
.

No. There are many things to consider, when looking GDP as related to employment, such as standard of living, inflation, the current needs, min wage, basic income...etc. For Pakistan, it only really need to keep its unemployment at 5% and it will be fine in the long run, India is a different story altogether.

That is with the most corrupt regime and the most violent period in the history of the country(2008-2013), yet Pakistan was able to do this much, i have no doubt that with so much more peace, stability and efforts to improve transparency and good governance will only bring prosperity to the country. My prediction is that in the next decade Pakistan will become another miracle story of the world.

Don't get your hopes up, Pakistan isn't another South Korea in the making. CPEC and other projects may help Pakistan leave the lower middle income bracket, but it will take decades for Pakistan to reach a respectable level of development.

I'd give it around 35-40 years to get to a stage where Pakistan can say "we're close to being developed".